The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 22nd November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last 2 runnings and are both entered again this year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the 9 previous runnings:
Horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners, all 3 were French bred.
3 of 4 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.
French Bred: 5-6-22
Irish Bred: 3-4-23
British Bred: 1-0-14
Record of French breds aged 6 or 7: 3-5-10
Record of French breds aged 8 or older: 2-1-12 (both wins from Kauto Star)
8 of 9 winners had had 0 or 1 run that season
9 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 168+ on last completed start
7 of 9 winners had run 6 to 15 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)
7 of 9 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 9 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase
Previous year’s winner (Cue Card): 61U3 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 331U11236 (3-1-9)
King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 31U124 (2-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 331U14224 (2-2-9)
Denman Chase winner (Harry Topper): 1323 (1-2-4)
Previous season’s Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 12 (1-1-2)
Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 21 (1-1-2)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 76431 (1-0-5)
Lexus Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 2255 (0-2-4)
Previous season’s Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 2 (0-1-1)
Argento Chase winner (Giant Bolster): 2 (0-1-1)
Aintree Bowl Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 235 (0-1-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 353 (0-0-3)
6 of 9 winners ran in previous season’s King George, finishing 211535
4 of 9 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 1113
3 of 9 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123
3 of 9 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 231
2 of 9 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 4P
Paul Nicholls (5-1-10) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 and finish 3rd in 2013.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race last year with Cue Card.
David Pipe (0-2-3) has trained the 2nd in 2008 & 2012 and 3rd in 2009.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish 2nd in 2011 & 2012.
8 of 9 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter
The slightly fortuitous Snoopy Loopy and Cue Card (last year) have been the only 2 winners to come from outside the top 3 in the betting.
The favourite (4-2-9) have won 4 of the 8 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.52.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– French bred 6yos do well
– Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
– Posted an RPR of 168+ last time
– Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)
– Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase
– Won over 3 miles or further
– Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time
– Finished in first 5 in 2013 King George
It will be fair to say that there is one stand out in the trends, two points clear of the rest of the field, failing on the age criteria, and then they all do.
Out of 8 of the basic trends DYNASTE scores 7.
Harry Topper, Menorah and Silvinaco Conti following in at 5
Cue Card scores a lowly 4. Excuses for this is his run lto, was it a prep run for this with a poor RPR? In addition, a no show for the Charlie Hall and Old Roan Chases, reduced trends scores further.
Sad Ken has Cue Card leading scoring 4 out of six, leading the analysis in form and ability. Whereas, Harry Topper is the clear form and speed horse, is he ready to progress from Grade 2 winning form to Grade 1? His profile suggests he is and has a value price if one decides to take a chance.
So back to the trends leader Dynaste, scoring 3 on Sad Ken, taking on the old rivals Cue Card and Silivinaco Conti. The first 3 in the betting and all the money surround them as in previous years. All beating each other from time to time and having respective glory, like Chelsea, Man City and Man United!
Dynaste has the better positive profile of the three, although all are negative, as they are knocking highest Official Ratings. So he is the obvious choice.
If I go beyond the strictest rules, as of late, and no real form has been franked yet, I’ll take another chance with the horse with the best profile. The form and speed horse and new kid on the block for value, also being a fan of his sire. Harry Toppper.
The curtain fell on the opening meeting at the Cheltenham course, which in my mind marks the real start to the national hunt season, and for good reason too. All three days didn’t disappoint in delivering a top spectacle to wet the whistle of race goers whom favour the tweed jacket over the top hat for the winter months for what I, and many others call, “proper racing”.
However, it was the Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting in name only as it may as well have been named the Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson show – that name sounded a lot catchier in my head. The Somerset-based trainer and jockey posted a meeting total of six wins combining for a 106/1 three-timer on the first day alone, which somewhat downplays the significance of the achievement. Today’s haul brings the Hobbs/Johnson total of recent Cheltenham winners to 14 (of 73) resulting in a level stakes profit of £15.73 boasting a 19.18% strike rate. Of course in the cold light of (retrospective) day it appears easy to assume that backing them was a good idea, but of the last three years the statistics will tell you that it was a wise move with the pair beating their rivals by a rate of 25% more than expected by the market, and that is what we as punters really want to know.
The tools on Formbet let us make sense of this data by simply asking the greatest form expert, mathematician and all round genius, FRED what he thinks. Have you not met FRED? Well, he is not actually a “he” at all, he’s a “thing” with FRED being an acronym for the Formbet RacE Database. FRED is one of the tools utilised by myself when looking at a perceived edge in the market to make sure it actually is in fact an edge. In this instance, we can see that of the winning-most trainers at Cheltenham, three of the top five have a positive expectancy (Win more races than the market thinks they will), however, only two actually yield a profit. Who are they? None other than Philip Hobbs and neighbouring trainer, David Pipe – and you’d be hard pushed to gauge the ability of one of his string on the day let alone trying to get a price.
It would’ve been handier to know this information Friday morning.
I’m not a massive fan of early season betting, especially in the type of testing underfoot conditions as were had during the festival as fitness comes to the fore and it’s the one thing as punters we have to take on faith, and I’m all out of having faith in trainers. However, I decided to throw a few speculative coins at a few throughout the day including GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN – but no sooner had the ink dried on the docket, I knew my fate. The horse is still farcically underrated by the market in my opinion and 18/1 was a cracking price, but does himself no favours by walking through some of his fences, which staying true to form he decided he didn’t fancy the look of the first three around the Cotswold’s. I’m of the mind that if he jumps, he wins. He has a fantastic cruising speed and if he could clean his jumping up he could be very classy indeed. However, what about that ride from the ginger ninja, Sam Twiston-Davies on SAM WINNER - the top-weight was only short of claiming benefits he’s that lazy and STD had to get after him from the get go and looked out of it down the back, but stays all day and wasn’t going to be beaten. The Nicholls/STD is no doubt going to be a formidable combination this season.
Next up, I decided to detach myself from reality and wonder what it was like to be totally carefree with money and so I decided to donate money to a well-known charity, Betfair via the medium of OSCAR WHISKY in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He was top of the ratings in the race and was definitely overpriced at 11/1 early on in the day given he’s won three of six chase starts, falling once and placing second twice behind 159-rated TAQUAN DU SEUIL and Sunday’s Shloer Chase winner UXIZANDRE who is shaping into a real 2m chase contender. He was given a peach of a ride through the race in a fair pace with Barry Geraghty settling him mid-division, he jumped well the whole way and only for being badly checked three out was going as good as anything in the race. Continued to rally all the way to the line finishing a valiant fourth. Certainly more to come from this lad.
On Sunday, the entire day – for me anyway – was based around Punchestown and the seasonal return of the wonder that is HURRICANE FLY I was pleasantly surprised to see the champion clear top of the ratings for the race and therefore was even more excited to see he was on the drift all day. Before that, however, I had the small matter of dealing with the Supreme Novices’ trial in which I couldn’t see past the Nicky Henderson trained runner VYTA DU ROC – couldn’t get beat in my eyes and had a clear favourite’s chance so when it opened up at 9/2 I was over the moon. I managed to get 4/1 and watched as he dropped like a stone through the field, looking like he was hating the conditions. “Done my money here!” I said, but what did I know. The master touch of Geraghty gave him a breather coming down the hill and came out on top in a hard fought finish beating EMERGING TALENT putting in a performance I thought was one of the best of the meeting. The Seven Barrows inmate was a strong contender across the ratings and despite only having three previous starts was awarded top marks for form. His game aptitude coupled with a 255-day layoff made his win all the more impressive to my eye. It will be interesting to see where connections aim him as his future looks to lay over a further trip and is now being given quotes of 20/1 for the Neptune, which given today’s wind-issue – in which I assume will be rectified – looks a fair price. However, Henderson has stated that he’ll keep him over 2m for the interim, but what does the multiple champion trainer know?
VYTA DU ROC had not only landed me a few shillings off a single, but I’d stuck an uncharacteristic treble on with a well-known charity on Sunday as I’d spotted three stand-out selections who were clear top of the ratings and the 268/1 odds should have told me everything I needed to know, but it didn’t.
The second in the treble was Venetia Williams trained GORGEHOUS LLIEGE which, given today’s conditions at Fontwell was of interest. Venetia specialises in mud-slingers and all of her runners are to be respected in races which are likely to be a war of attrition. Liam Tredwell and Venetia Williams are one of the most profitable pairings to follow, yielding a level stakes profit of £161, which is boosted to a phenomenal £252 if taking into account only handicap chases. Treadwell got the horse in a fine rhythm and lead for the most part, jumping his rivals into the ground only to blunder the last to give me momentary heart palpitations, but ran out a game winner at 8/1.
So I’m left with the agonising decision on whether or not to cash out, lay some of it off or just let it roll? I recall Clement Freud’s frequent racing column’s telling tales of his despair in letting multiples run and seeing them go down and wishing he’d not been so greedy, so really I should’ve heeded the warning. Suffice to say…. I didn’t. The torment to punters knows no bounds and even when we are winning, we’re being put through our proverbial paces in order to keep the momentum on side. In fact, I’m going to shirk all responsibility and place the blame with those on the FormBet chat room to whom I sought counsel.
VANITEUX was my final selection of the treble, running in the race of the day and was relatively strong at the head of the market at 5/1 given trainer, Nicky Henderson’s comments stating “It’s him [VANITEUX] or nothing” when quizzed over his Champion Hurdle contenders. My thinking was, if he fancies him to win a Champion Hurdle in the era of some serious contenders then he needs to be beating this mob, despite carrying top weight. He ran with a lot of credit and for all the world he was going as good as anything turning in for home, charting the shortest route on the rail and I found myself counting out the four-figure winnings, but was brought down to earth as the man of the meeting, Dickie Johnson pressed go on GARDE LE VICTOIRE and off he shot by a good four lengths approaching the last to run out a ready winner of one of the most competitive handicaps of the meeting. Well, “sick” is a word I’d use to describe my feeling after the race, but it’s one of those things. I’ll take a small victory in coming that close to landing a big one in the first place – something I wouldn’t of been able to do without the Formbet ratings.
Still an all, a number of the trends lads had the winner, so at least some of my betting comrades we’re able to celebrate. Perhaps they’ll buy the pints in order for me to drown my sorrows…… I don’t care what anyone says, that’s the best way to deal with defeat, honest.
Lastly, to rub salt in my open wounds, I’m sure there’s no coincidence that following the Greatwood Hurdle race came a Lloyds bank advert in which it shows people telling us what the best day of their life was, all in a bid for Lloyds to say that they are “with you every step of the way”. What’s this got to do with anything? Well, I’m wondering will my bank manager be as accommodating given a depleted account on Monday morning.
Safe to say, the National Hunt season is truly underway – but I can’t help but ponder just how golden the meeting could’ve been. I may get Geldof to record a tune in order to collect some donations on my behalf.
The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is the highlight on day 3 of Cheltenham’s November meeting, on Sunday 16th November. It is a 2M 110y handicap hurdle and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
4 & 5 year olds have won 7 of last 10 from just over 52% of total runners.
Of the ten 4yos to make the frame, 8 had run on the flat, with 6 of those rated 80+ on the level and the other 2 were winners in France with no rating in Britain or Ireland. 4 of the 10 ran in Triumph Hurdle that year (including 2 winners) and 2 had run in Fred Winter.
In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (went on to finish 2nd in Champion Hurdle and win grade 1 Aintree Hurdle that season) & Rooster Booster in 2002 (who won Champion Hurdle later that season).
Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 5-6-42
Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 1-9-51
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-11-66
Preference is for higher weights, horses carrying 11-4+ have won 5 of 10 from less than 27% of total runners.
Top Weight: 4012820318087 (2-3-12) have a good record, having won 4 of the last 12.
Horses carrying a penalty (0-3-4) have gained 5 places from 6 runners since 2003.
Horses rated 140 or more: 6-11-55
Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-11-77
Horses rated 129 or less: 2-4-27
Horses officially rated 140+ have won 6 of last 10 from approximately 34.6% of total runners.
9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high mark in a handicap hurdle (although 7 of 10 winners were making their handicap hurdle debut)
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed hurdles start (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (1 exception was Olofi who was 5th & 2nd in two previous runnings)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 9 times over hurdles (8 of 10 had run in 3 to 6 hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles (exception had run in 8 previously)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (9 had yet to win a handicap hurdle)
7 of 10 winners were running in their first handicap hurdle
6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (5 who had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)
3 of 10 winners had won a bumper in Ireland
9 of 10 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start
7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better hurdle (1 exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)
Record of horses that finished in first 9 in Triumph Hurdle: 251850712 (2-2-9)
Highest placed finisher from Anniversary 4YO Hurdle: 272170 (1-2-6)
Share.com More People H’cap Hurdle winner (Existas): 20 (0-1-2)
AP Security Juvenile Handicap Hurdle winner (Raven’s Tower): 09 (0-0-2)
Giftofracing.co.uk Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle winner (Roman Flight): 708 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Top Novices’ Hurdle, finishing 29
2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 19
3 of last 4 winners aged 6+ ran in County Hurdle, finishing 100
6 of 10 winners ran at that year’s Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 16th in County Hurdle, 13th & 1st Supreme and 1st & 9th Triumph)
Philip Hobbs (2-0-15) has trained the winner in 2002, 2006 & 2010.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-11) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 12 runners since 2003.
Gary Moore (1-2-8) saddled the winner in 2008 and also had 2 other placed finishers since 2004.
Tom George (1-1-3), David Pipe (1-1-7) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) have also trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Venetia Williams (0-1-1), Willie Mullins (0-1-3) and Nicky Henderson (0-1-5) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Irish based trainers (2-3-32) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals. Both Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle in April/May and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.
8 of 10 winners were held up early on (the two winners that raced prominently throughout were top class grade 1 hurdlers Detroit City & Sizing Europe).
10 of 10 winners were sent off at 12/1 or lower
Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, 6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.
Favourites (2-3-12) have won 2 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes loss of 3.47.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– Aged 5 or a 4yo that is rated 80+ on flat & ran in 2014 Triumph or Fred Winter Hurdle
– Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)
– Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won an Irish bumper)
– Finished in the first two on last NH start (ideally in a class 1 hurdle)
– First or second season hurdler (or placed in this last year)
– Previously run 3 to 6 times over hurdles
– Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (handicap debutante favoured)
– Yet to win a handicap hurdle
– Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better
– Ran in a class 1 hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival
– Tends to be held up
– Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Tom George or Gary Moore
– Priced 12/1 or shorter
– See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/greatwood-hurdle-trends-2014-1415662270#sthash.l5VzGNJp.dpuf
Trends are an excellent tool to add to your betting armoury and can help narrow down a race in a matter of 10 minutes quick research. Using the 10/10 and 9/10 elimination trends gets me down to an initial 3 -:
BLUE HERON 16/1
Looking at the balance of 8/10 and 7/10 trends gives me just the one contender who has won a Class 2 or better hurdle and having his first handicap hurdle start and it’s BLUE HERON for the in-form Skelton team who looks a value trends pick at 16/1.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 15th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 14th to 16th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-17-96
Horses aged 8+: 1-12-83
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-8-67
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 5-21-112
Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 5 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more from less than 38% of total runners.
Top Weight: 04FPP65PPP (0-1-10)
Horses rated 150 or higher: 1-7-46
Horses rated 139 to 149: 8-12-88
Horses rated 138 or less: 1-10-45
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 139 to 149 from less than 50% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point wand was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle, one other placed in listed handicap chase)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
5 of 5 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
Previous season’s winner (Johns Spirit): 0 (0-0-1)
Marie Curie Cancer Handicap Chase winner (Johns Spirit): 43F28531 (1-4-8)
Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase winner (Present View): 1F3P5 (1-1-5)
Record of first 7 from Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P521 (3-4-15)
Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous year’s Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): 1P (1-0-2)
Molson Coors H’cap Chase winner (Lamool): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Uzixandre): 846 (0-1-3)
Greatwood Gold Cup winner (Shangani): 96 (0-0-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Buywise): PU7 (0-0-3)
Timeform Novice H’cap Chase winner (Indian Castle): 6UF (0-0-3)
Fairlawne Chase Handicap winner (Double Ross): PPPP (0-0-4)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Ballynagour): 77PP600 (0-0-7)
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in previous year’s Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Chase, finishing 211
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase, finishing 167
2 of 2 third season chaser winners ran in previous season’s December Gold Cup, finishing F2
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in John Smith’s H’cap Chase, finishing 63
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year’s Cheltenham Festival
The Pipe stable (3-1-15) have accounted for 4 of the last 12 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-11) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-14) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-10) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006 & John’s Spirt to win it last year.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-20) saddled the winner & 3 places finishers in the last 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (0-6-19), Phillip Hobbs (0-4-10) and Alan King (0-4-10) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2004.
Irish based trainers (1-2-19) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (2-3-10) have gained 2 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2004 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 2.00.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– Aged 5 to 7
– Officially rated 139 to 149
– Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase
– Had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
– Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
– Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
– Second or third season chaser (preferably 2nd season chaser)
– Previously run less than 10 times over fences
– Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
– First 3 in 2013 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup
– Ran in a chase at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival
– Finished in first 7 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase
– Trained in Great Britain
– Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Jonjo O’Neill
– Favourite does well
The second jumps trends race of the season. I hope to do better than I did last year, through a field of high class contenders having previous form at this track, over course and distance.
Trends summary scores from 14
11 – INDIAN CASTLE*, OSCAR WHISKEY*, PRESENT VIEW*
10 – JOHN’S SPIRIT*, BUYWISE
9 – PERSIAN SNOW*
*Meeting the trends detail “9 out of the last 10 winners had their last run at Aintree, Carlisle and Cheltenham.
Sad Ken: Out of 6 using strictest rules for class of race
4 – OSCAR WHISKEY, JOHN’S SPIRIT
2 – INDIAN CASTLE, PERSIAN SNOW, BUYWISE
OSCAR WHISKEY – Form and probability with a level handicap; decent RPR; negative – age
JOHN’S SIPRIT – ability and speed; with a 9 pound rise and superior RPR profile to overcome rise; negative – had a run this season and ran in more than 7 handicaps.
Both have winning form on soft ground, Oscar Whiskey has got form on heavy, if the conditions change.
Verdict: So early in the season, it’s difficult to split the two; therefore I will apply caution and split stakes on the finalists.
One to watch: KAPA DE CERISY – scored 2 in Sad Ken, but the outright form and speed horse, with the best positive profile of the field. A solid each way bet with bookmakers offering 5 places.
The Cheltenham Open meeting kicks off on Friday running for 3 days and I can’t wait ! For me this is the start of the jumps season where we can put a very profitable flat season behind us and start looking forward to future profits. This season will be the first jumps season that Premium Season subscribers only have access to FRED (Formbet RacE Database) to really give themselves an ever bigger edge than they had before just with the FormBet Ratings.
To give an example of how easy and quick it is to find a profitable system just have a look at the video below and I’ll reveal just 3 SIMPLE FILTERS which have provided a historical +80pts profit with a huge 59% Yield and 1.44 AE utilising just the FormBet Ratings.
The 3 simple filters are -:
1) CHELTENHAM HANDICAPS ONLY
2) POWr <=2
3) FBRr <=3
If you really don’t want to do the hard (not that hard tbh) work, then let me do it for you by signing up to my Best Bets supplied via SMS text, Email, Web etc at the link below.
It’s a reasonably well know racing “fact” that, over the long term, it is not possible to make profits backing only odds on horses. Despite what the market may believe, their short prices don’t always accurately reflect their overall chances of winning, when looked at in aggregate over a big sample size. However, it would be interesting to know if it was theoretically possible to eek out profits backing at odds on prices, if we were a little more selective. How can we investigate this? Using FRED of course.
If you’re not familiar with FRED, it is an online database search tool developed specifically for FormBet subscribers. Data analysis with FRED is simple and intuitive, requiring only a web browser and Internet connection. The data available within FRED begins from September 2012 and includes general race details, such as course, jockey, trainer and distance, through to all the specific FormBet ratings.
Let’s begin by looking at all data in FRED, between the Betfair Start Prices (BSP) of 1 and 2 (we are going to include even money starters too). The output of this filtering produces a chart which looks like this:
Click to view a larger version.
Including a basic Betfair Commission calculation of 5% on every runner, the returns here show a small loss of -42 points, using a flat stakes betting strategy over 3321 runners, but with a huge strike rate of over 60%. Almost profitable, but not quite.
Using the detailed reports available in FRED, let’s see if there are specific areas where the performance of odds on runners improve. Something generic, like who is riding, produced some interesting results. Looking at just the detailed FRED report for Jockeys reveals the following:
Click to view a larger version
Here we can clearly see that backing those odds on horses, when the likes of Ryan Moore, Jason Maguire, Barry Geraghty, Pat Smullen, Richard Johnson and Tom Scudamore are riding, could turn our marginally loss making strategy into something profitable. It is interesting to note that many of the profitable odds on riding jockeys are from the National Hunt scene, rather than the Flat.
If we wanted to go down that route, the results could be further filtered by only looking at the rides of Maguire, Geraghty, Johnson and Scudamore in Non-Handicap Hurdle and Chase events. The sample size is starting to shrink, but the chart certainly looks encouraging!
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A fantastic 75% strike rate, over 209 runs, and a level stakes profit of 34.71 points. These are filters that anyone could apply, if they were willing to compile enough back data on jockeys and their mounts. However, FRED makes it very, very easy to dig into back data like this.
While looking at jockey returns is fairly generic, let’s see if there are some specific FormBet ratings that can also improve the initial small loss. The daily FormBet ratings include a Pace rating for every runner in every race. Filtering the odds on results to just the top three Pace rated runners turns a small profit, over a large sample size. It’s not really enough profit to make the effort worthwhile, so let’s apply some further filters. The daily ratings also include two Sad Ken ratings – SKS and SKF. Applying a filter of just the top two SKS rated horses, in combination with the top three Pace filtered odds on runners, produces the following output:
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The Yield% and Strike Rate aren’t as high as the previous jockeys only example, but the sample size is over three times larger and the overall points return also increases.
How does this help us for the forthcoming National Hunt season? Let’s see what happens with an AP McCoy filter:
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Or a Hurdle only filter:
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Using FRED it is possible to combine data in almost any number of ways. The tool is still under heavy development and angles like these will only become even easier to find as enhancements are added.
In answer to our initial question, is it possible to make long term profits backing just odds on horses? Using the above examples, it is clear that this can be a profitable strategy. Whether it’s applying generic data filters such as a subset of jockeys, or a more structured ratings based approach, either way high strike rates, low sequential losing bets and steady profits can be found at the thin end of the market.
It was a great way to end the flat season with a win for OPEN EAGLE in the November Handicap.
Open Eagle was TOP Form Rated (FBR) and value as well as being 2nd on the POWER ratings, you don’t need to stray too far from the Top-Rated to find profits and the new database research tool can really help with that. I always go big on the big races as the ratings work there time and time again which is why my average win odds are always in double-figures.
If you want to get the Best Bets only then you can use discount code “FORMBET” via the BetAdvisor site when joining me, or any of the tipsters on there. I’m really looking forward to the Cheltenham 3-day open meeting there where I can fully focus on nailing those big priced winners, as I’ve done so well in the past at Cheltenham as you can see below from my BetAdvisor Best Bets course statistics. All bets are advised win only at BSP so no trouble getting on with limiting bookmakers.
This is all down to the ratings themselves which help flag these big-priced winners for the major races using a simple set of filters and some logic. We held an “Improve Your Betting” Hangout yesterday but despite a few teething issues the replay itself didn’t work too badly and we intend to produce more of these with a bit more focus next time and hopefully less technical problems ! You can view it here or below.
Finally, like to thank everyone on board FormBet for making it the community and service it is, we have big plans for the future and look forward to you being part of that growth as we add new features & functionality to help you make those big kind of profits myself and other subscribers make on a regular basis.
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