Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle

Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle

The Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 31st January. A grade 3 handicap hurdle run over 2M 6F, it was won in 2004 by the mighty Baracouda, who shouldered top weight to victory, however that was result was very much out of the norm and most winners in the past 10 renewals have carried lower weights and were far less exposed. The last 3 runnings have been abandoned due to weather.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-4-18

6yo: 4-8-35

7yo: 2-4-33

8yo: 1-5-32

9yo: 2-1-15

10yo+: 0-1-13

7 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7. The 3 winners aged 8+ were Baracouda (multiple grade 1 winner), Chief Yeoman (runner-up in grade 1 Triumph Hurdle) and Beshabar (grade 3 winner).

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 1-7-45

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 9-16-101

9 of 10 winners carried 10-12 or less, the one exception was Baracouda, who won this under top weight.

Top Weights: 3P17449676 (1-2-10)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 136 or higher: 1-8-44

Horses rated 125 to 135:  7-10-74

Horses rated 124 or less: 2-5-28

The last 7 winners were officially rated 125 to 135. The only winner rated higher than 135 in last 10 runnings was Baracouda (rated 170), when racing against 8 rivals, who were all racing from out of the handicap.

 Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (exception 5th in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle on New Year’s Day)

10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles run

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception had run just once)

7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles

9 of 10 winners had 2 or 3 previous hurdle wins

8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 3 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 9 h’cap hurdles)

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles

7 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a grade 1)

4 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception placed in handicap hurdles worth 16K+ over 2M 4F+ on both runs that season)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdler

6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 hurdle

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdle with 10 or more runners

7 of 10 winners began career in a NH race (1 exception rated 88 on flat and other 2 had run on flat in France)

 

Other Races

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Batavir): 8 (0-0-1)

William Hill Down The App Mares Novice Hurdle winner (A Doll In Milan): P (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle, finishing P0

2 of 10 winners ran in William Download The App H’cap Hurdle, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 5F Uttoxeter Novice hurdle earlier that season

2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 1F Exeter Novice hurdle during the previous calendar year

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-2-8) has saddled 3 winners & 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 renewals.

Suzy Smith (0-1-2) & David Pipe (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.

Lucy Wadham (0-0-3), Alan King (0-0-3), Emma Lavelle (0-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5) & Oliver Sherwood (0-0-5) have seen their collective 19 runners finish unplaced.

 

Racing Tactics

5 of 10 winners were held up

5 of 10 winners tracked leaders

 

Price

7 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting

7 of last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter though 2 of last 3 winners were sent off 10/1 & 16/1.

Favourites (4-1-10) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.91.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 5 to 7 (or a previous graded hurdle winner)

– Finished in first 4 last time

– Posted an RPR of 125+ last time out

– Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs

– Run 2 to 4 times this season

– Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (gaining 2 or 3 wins)

– Run in 3 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or less)

– First or Second season hurdler (novices do well)

– Carrying 10-12 or less

– Officially rated 125 to 135

– Won a hurdles race with 10+ runners

– Had first ever start in a point to point, bumper or hurdle (or on flat in France)

– Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (ideally won or placed in a class 1)

– Trained by Paul Nicholls

 

Carl’s Analysis

As Paul Nicholls does not have a runner in this race, the score will be from 13 for the trends, they are as follows:

13 – POLAMCO

11 – HANSUPFORDEETROIT, JUNCTION FORTEEN

10 – ANTEROS, MR GREY

9  – SAFFRON WELLS, CADOUDOFF

POLAMCO, the trends leader also confirmed by Sad Ken, has been impressive and still relatively unexposed. Since Novice hurdling, he has been risen 11 lbs. Giving 4 lbs to the field, still is the one to beat on current form. From the speed figures available, is not the fastest horse in the field but gamely enough.

SAFFRON WELLS, the speed horse has been running credibly and the handicapper has left him alone, in the last 3 races. Came 3rd in a Class 1 race, hopefully the class will put in good stead, the negative is the amount of races he has had.

HANSUPFORDETROIT has been a pretty consistent chaser and is showing the same prowess over hurdles, for the trends age goes against him, but a worthy contender.

JUNCTION FORTEEN, has run in a few too many handicaps, but may not have the speed.

ANTEROS, too many handicaps too, but has ran a career best lto, and is not badly treated either.

 

All in all it is hard to look away from POLAMCO, however the weight rises do concern me, not much, but does, taking into account the speed figures. But I’ll put him up anyway.

The Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase is one of the highlights on the Irish National Hunt calendar each year and takes place at Gowran Park on Thursday 22nd January. The race can often throw up clues for the Irish and Aintree Grand Nationals later in the season with Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde featuring amongst the winners since 2000, while last year’s winner, On His Own, almost followed up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 7 of last 8 winners had contested the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick or Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-1

7yo: 1-4-20

8yo: 2-6-40

9yo: 4-11-47

10yo: 2-7-48

11yo+: 1-2-21

Horses aged 7 to 9: 7-21-107

Horses aged 10+: 3-9-60.

All 3 winners aged 10+ had won or placed in the race in previous 2 years.

Since 1990 there have only been three 6yo runners, 4/1 favourite fell in 1994, 25/1 unplaced in 1998 and 4/1 joint favourite fell in 2013.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

 

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 3-13-78

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 7-17-99

Horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 7 of the last 10 runnings of this race. The 3 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year), Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year) & On His Own in 2014 (won this in 2012).

Top Weight: 44F42010U9 (1-3-10)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 130 or higher: 3-13-71

Horses rated 129 or lower: 7-16-106

7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower, however in recent years the trends has pointed towards higher rated runners, with 7 of the last 8 winners being rated 124+.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas (exception was a previous winner of the race)

8 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts

9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles

7 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 11 chases (3 exceptions had run in 16-17 chases previously)

10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

6 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in a previous renewal)

7 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings

8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase

 

Other Races

Previous year’s winner (On His Own): 6109 (1-0-4)

Highest placed finisher from previous year’s race: P2610907P (1-1-9)

Highest placed finisher from Tim Duggan Memorial H’cap Chase: 6P01270 (1-1-7)

Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Chase to run in this: 923P3P3697 (0-4-10)

Boylesports Irish Grand National @Fairyhouse H’cap Chase winner (Sword Fish): 2 (0-1-1)

Leinster National winner (Gallant Oscar): 3P (0-1-2)

Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 0038 (0-1-4)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H’cap Chase winner (My Murphy): 7 (0-0-1)

Punchestown Hospitality Beginners Chase winner (The Job Is Right): F (0-0-1)

Bobbyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 6 (0-0-1)

Previous season’s Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Ten Up): 0F5P (0-0-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B

3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown, finishing 044

2 of 10 ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish National, finishing 7F

 

Trainers

Willie Mullins (3-6-25) has trained 5 winners since 2000 and has won 2 of the last 3 runnings with On His Own.

Tony Martin (1-2-5) won this in 2006 and see 4 of his 5 runners since 2005 make first 5.

Paul Gilligan (1-1-2) saddled Jadanli to finish 1st & 3rd in 2013 and 2012.

Robert Tyner (0-2-5) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of the past 3 years.

Gordon Elliot (0-1-4) & Jim Dreaper (0-1-4) have each saddled the runner-up in past 2 runnings.

Noel Meade (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, with his 17 runners since 2000 all finishing unplaced.

 

Running Style

2 of 10 winners led/made all

4 of 10 winners tracked leaders

3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division

1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

The last 5 winners led or tracked leaders.

 

Price

No strong trends on the prices with 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1.

Favourites (1-5-12) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75. Last winning favourite was in 2006.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 7 to 9 (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)

– Carrying 10-9 or less (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)

– Officially rated 124 to 135

– Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals)

– Won or placed on one or both of last 2 completed chase starts

– Has won over 3M+

– Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

– First or second season chaser (or placed in a previous Thyestes)

– Previously won or placed in a Grade C or higher chase

– Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December

– Placed in the Troytown Chase

– Tends to race prominently

– Trained by Willie Mullins, Paul Gilligan, Tony Martin or Robert Tyner

 

Carl’s Analysis

I’m going to keep this short and sweet.

I must give thanks to Geoff on the FormBet forum who has ran the trends as well, who has pointed out a detail which I missed to narrow down my final selections. We both agree on one though.

Trends from 12

9  – Gallant Oscar, Groody Hill, The Job Is Right, Vasco Du Me

8 – My Murphy, Goonyella, Make A Track.

The focus is, thanks to Geoff, is the weight 10-9 or less, and secondly 1st and 2nd season chasers that frank the form running in the Paddy Power, and thirdly, who has run in less than 7 handicap chases.

THE JOB IS RIGHT 10/1 & VACSO DU ME 25/1

Classic Chase Trends

Classic Chase Trends

The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 10th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.

Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2002:

 Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-2

7yo: 2-6-16

8yo: 2-8-26

9yo: 3-3-36

10yo: 1-1-23

11yo: 1-2-18

12yo+: 1-1-14

No strong trend on ages, though all 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-11-81

French bred: 2-5-27

GB bred: 1-5-25

Other: 0-0-2

Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 60% of the total runners.

French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-5-16 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-11.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

 

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-9-66

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-12-69

In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 6 of last 7 winners and 12 of the 21 placed finishers in past 7 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.

Top weight: 4FPB0P36152 (1-2-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-28

Horses rated 129 to 140: 7-11-68

Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-39

In past 7 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners:

Horses rated 133 or higher: 6-8-47

Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-6-48

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)

10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 136+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track

8 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases

8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase

7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)

 

Other Races

Previous year’s winner (Shotgun Paddy): 0 (0-0-1)

Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): P3 (0-1-2)

Totesport Supporting Welsh Racing Handicap Chase winner (Cadeau George): P (0-0-1)

Jockey Club Catering Festive Christmas Handicap Chase winner (Incentivise): 0F (0-0-2)

London National winner (Tales Of Milan): PPP (0-0-3)

Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Adrenalin Flight): FPP (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Scottish National, finishing 02

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Grand National, finishing U0

2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H’cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P

2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00

 

Trainers

Alan King (2-2-7) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 5 and saddled runner-up in 2013.

Paul Nicholls (2-1-9) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007.

Venetia Williams (1-2-8) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 9 runners.

Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) trained Hey Big Spender to win this in 2012 & Emma Lavelle (1-0-2) won it last year with Shotgun Paddy.

Mark Bradstock (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year.

 

Price

No very strong trend on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 3 going off at 14/1, 18/1 & 25/1.

Favourites (1-4-11) have won just one running since 2002, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:

– Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger

– Carrying 10-9 or more

– Officially rated 133 or higher

– Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days

– Posted an RPR of 136+ in one or both of last 2 starts

– Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track

– Previously won at least twice over fences

– Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

– Previously contested a graded chase (or rated lower than 130)

– Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National

– Finished in first 4 in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase

– Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls, C Tizzard or Ian Williams

 

Carl’s Analysis

Trends scoring from 12:

9 – West End Rocker

8 – Bebane Head, Theatrical Star

7 – Return Spring, Hawkes Point, Shotgun Paddy.

I’m keeping this one short and sweet. There is only one leading on Sad Ken with form, speed and ability with best profile of the field, with 2 lbs in hand, at the age of 13; West End Rocker, who tops the trends.

A risk, as age and running in too many handicap chases certainly goes against him trends wise, but that also applies to many for this race. Those that satisfy will be Hawkes Point and Shotgun Paddy, but the speed figures are too far off from my nomination.

The other to consider on form and speed alone, who has 5lbs in hand, is Sixty Something who scored 6 on the trends but will need to improve, as it has not been in graded company yet, but for me possibly will make the frame. Another with a similar profile will be Ballyoliver.

If I was not applying the strictest rules, then I will put up all three, but stats rule my head in this case. Therefore, WEST END ROCKER for the win and Ballyoliver and Sixty Something each way.

Topaz Novices Chase

Topaz Novices Chase

The Grade 1 Topaz Novice Chase (formerly the Knight Frank), run over 3 miles, takes place at Leopardstown on Monday 29th December. This is usually a top class race that gives clues for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. The runner-up in 2009, Weapon’s Amnesty, and the 2010 winner, Bostons Angel, both went on to win the RSA at the Festival.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-10

6yo: 6-12-45

7yo: 4-4-27

8yo: 0-1-6

9yo: 0-0-4

Horses aged 6 or 7 have won the last 10 & filled 26 of 27 places in the past 9 years.

6yos have a particularly strong record, having won 7 of last 10 & filled 9 of 12 places in last 4 years.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start (exception was 4th in Drinmore)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners posted their highest chase RPR in one of their last 2 starts

6 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 148+ on last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts (exception runner-up in Drinmore & Kerry National on last 2 runs)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

8 of 10 winners had previously run 2 or 3 times over fences (2 exceptions were 2nd season chasers)

10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a bumper, Pt to Pt or hurdle

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle or chase

 

Other Races

Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shanahan’s Turn): 1FPP24112 (3-2-9)

Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 121 (2-1-3)

Previous season’s Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 11P (2-0-3)

WB Gavin EBF Beginners Chase winner (Very Wood): 1F51F (2-0-5)

Ballymore Christmas Fair November Festival Beginners Chase winner (Shanahan’s Turn): 4P141 (2-0-5)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Band Of Blood): 31P3 (1-2-4)

Porter & Co Beginners Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 251 (1-1-3)

Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase (Valseur Lido): FP1F (1-0-4)

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner (Very Wood): 2 (0-1-1)

www.thurlesraces.ie Beginners Chase winner (Allied Victory): 3 (0-1-1)

Naas Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (Real Steel): 3 (0-1-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Don Poli): 82 (0-1-2)

Boylesports Irish Grand National Beginners Chase winner (Adrianna Des Mottes): 2F5P3 (0-1-5)

Galmoy Hurdle winner (Mala Beach): 7 (0-0-1)

Limestone Lad Hurdle winner (Rule The World): 4 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore last time, finishing 21P142

3 of 10 winners ran in Florida Pearl Novice Chase, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in WB Gavin Beginners Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Ballymore Christmas Fair & Family Fun November Festival Beginners Chase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners won the previous season’s Monksfield Novice Hurdle

3 of last 7 winners won their beginners chase over 2M 4F at Punchestown, one other was 2nd in one and 2 of last 3 winners won a 2M 6F grade 2 at Punchestown

 

Trainers

Noel Meade (2-1-9) trained back to back winners in 2008 & 2009.

Willie Mullins (1-3-7) trained the 1-2 in 2012.

 

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, though in the past 5 years there have been 2 winners priced 14/1 and 25/1.

Favourites (4-4-11) have won 4 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.75.

Conclusion:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 or 7

Run at least twice this season

Finished in the first 2 last time out in past 40 days

- Won 1 or both of last 2 starts

Won over 2M 4F+

Run in 2 or 3 chases prior to this (or second season chaser)

Finished in first 2 in a Punchestown chase over 2M 4F+

Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase or hurdle

Won Florida Pearl Novice Chase and/or WB Gavin Beginners Chase

Had last start in the Drinmore Novice Chase

Trained by Willie Mullins or Noel Meade

Carl’s Analysis 

Two at the head of the trends here, APACHE STRONGHOLD and SHANAHAN’S TURN.

Not much to go by in positive profiles across the field, due to limitations of info, but I can tell you this.

Apache Stronghold is the speed of the field and is 3lbs better off.

Shanahan’s turn is the Sad Ken pick and is 3lbs worse off.

Second in the trends are Mala Beach and Very Wood, respectively their speed figures suggest that they have to improve significantly.

What about the favourite Don Poli… a form horse and a career best lto, better off by 2lbs, but scored a lowly 5 in the trends against 9 of the leaders.

I’ll split stakes with the trends leaders as it is hard to split them.

 

RYAN AIR HURDLE

RYAN AIR HURDLE

The Ryanair Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth and final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, on Monday 29th December. A grade 1 hurdle, run over 2 miles, it attracts the top Irish hopes for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and has been won by the likes of Istabraq, Brave Inca, Sublimity and Hurricane Fly since 2000. This year’s renewal looks likely to see another battle between old foes, Hurricane Fly & Jezki, who finished 1-2 in last year’s race.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-1-6

5yo: 2-2-9

6yo: 1-3-18

7yo: 2-1-13

8yo: 3-0-4

9yo: 1-1-3

10yo: 0-2-2

11yo+: 0-0-3

Horses aged 4 to 6: 4-6-33

Horses aged 7 to 10: 6-4-22

The only 2 horses aged over 8 to ever win the race have been the mighty Istabraq, who was winning it for the fourth time & Hurricane Fly, who won it for a third time last year.

 

Gender

Mares (1-1-4) have gained 2 wins and 2 seconds from 7 runners since 2002.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last hurdles start

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ in last 2 starts (exception was a 4yo)

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times over hurdles that season

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on all hurdles starts that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a grade 1 hurdle (exception had won a grade 3)

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a hurdle at Leopardstown before (exception was having first course start)

6 of 10 winners had won over this CD

 

Other Races

Previous Year’s winner (Hurricane Fly): 412221 (2-3-6)

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 1311111 (6-0-7)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 123812211 (4-2-9)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 125211 (3-2-6)

Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 311 (2-0-3)

Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 3 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 223

3 of 10 winners ran in the Hattons Grace last time, finishing 311

6 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 122111

6 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 313111

5 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 31421

4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 2111

4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing FU11

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s race, finishing 141

The last 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 32

The last 2 winners aged 4 ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 21

 

Trainers

Willie Mullins (3-1-8) trained Hurricane Fly to win this in 2010 & 2012.

Jessica Harrington (1-1-5) trained the winner 2004 and 2nd in 2003 & 2013.

 

Price

9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 3 in the betting

All 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter.

The favourite (4-2-10) has a fair record, having won 4 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes loss of 3.25.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 8 (or a previous winner)

- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time out

- Ran no more than 3 times this season

- Posted an RPR of 151+ last time out

- Finished in first 3 on all starts this season

- Previous grade 1 hurdle winner

- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over the course and distance

- Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time

- Finished in first 3 in Morgiana, and/or 2014 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle

- Finished in first 2 in Irish Champion and/or Punchestown Champion Hurdle

- From the first 3 in the betting

Carl’s Analysis

Marvin Hagler vs Sugar Ray Leonard, Sebastian Coe vs Steve Ovette, Steve Davies vs Hurricane Higgins….

Today it’s Hurricane Fly vs Jezki!

Both at the Head of the trends and Jezki just has it. Sad Ken puts forward Hurricane. 8/11 or 11/8. The difference in the trends is just the age with Hurricane Fly getting a bit long in the fang with a massive 81% of winning vs 69% for Jezki, not much between them in ability, so those are the horses to beat.

If one of them falls, probably not but what about the rest of the field….

Alderwood was one that caught my eye, hasn’t run over hurdles in 2 years but is the form and speed horse of the field with the best profile. A Grade 1,2 and 3 winner over hurdles, has been chasing since, Just one of interest, with a career best lto over hurdles and another in the Clonmel Oil Chase this year, looks a real contender, even though 3 figure odds doesn’t suggest.

Artic Fire and Tiger Roll (the triumph hurdle winner at Cheltenham), both have career bests with Tiger Roll having a Grade 1 win, does Cheltenham form travel here.

It will take a brave person to take an e/w bet on Alderwood or Tiger Roll, with only two places to offer with two great horses at the head of the field.

If one is to go by the trends alone, then Jezki, Sad Ken; Hurricane Fly.

 

PADDY POWER CHASE

PADDY POWER CHASE

PADDY POWER CHASE TRENDS 2014

The valuable Grade B Paddy Power Handicap Chase is the highlight of a top class card on day 2 of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. Run over 3 miles for 5 year olds and upwards, it is always a wide open contest that really tests a horse’s stamina, unexposed types generally do best as no winner of this since 2004 had run in more than 7 handicap chases.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-2-5

6yo: 1-3-28

7yo: 2-13-87

8yo: 4-4-84

9yo: 2-7-51

10yo: 0-1-17

11yo+: 0-0-7

No strong trend on age of the winners.

Horses aged 10 or older have struggled, gaining just 1 place from 24 runners.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 3-13-132

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 7-17-147

Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 8 of last 10, both exceptions were top weights.

Top weight: P0010FU18F65 (2-0-13)

Horses carrying a penalty: F00F2F0F004F (0-2-12)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-111

Horses rated 129 or lower: 6-20-168

The shape of the race has changed quite drastically in past few years as between 2001 & 2005 all 5 winners were rated 100 to 118 however these days very few horses rated 118 or lower make it in to the race.

Looking at past 6 years:

Horses rated 134 or higher: 1-4-51

Horses rated 124 to 133: 5-12-80

Horses rated 123 or lower: 0-2-35

Horses rated 124 to 133 have filled 11 of the 12 places in past 3 runnings.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start

8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 127+ on last chase start

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since 1st October

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 60 days

7 of 10 winners gained their first chase win over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F to 3M

8 of 10 winners had previously run in 3 to 9 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 15 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 7 handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase

8 of 10 winners had won or placed at track before (1 exception fell in this race when in contention on only previous course run & other was having first run here)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions were novices)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won or placed in a Grade A-C or Listed Chase (both exception had yet to run in a graded or listed chase)

 

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Troytown Handicap Chase: 4P10803381 (2-3-10)

Record of first 4 from Troytown: F742P8410082063U831841 (3-7-22)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (My Murphy): P10 (1-0-3)

Weatherbys Ireland GSB Handicap Chase winner (Grand Jesture): 4 (0-1-1)

Leinster National winner (Galant Oscar): P (0-0-1)

Porterstown Handicap Chase winner (Embracing Change): F5F0 (0-0-4)

Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 0FFP (0-0-4)

Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Folsom Blue): 0B0FU (0-0-5)

Cork Grand National winner (Vics Canvas): 088P0 (0-0-5)

3 of 10 winners finished placed in Pertemps Final handicap hurdle here in December, finishing 334

3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown Handicap Chase last time, finishing 134

2 of 10 winners ran in Cork National, finishing 34

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 6F

2 of 10 winners ran in 3M Navan EBF Novice H’cap Chase Final, finishing 14

 

Trainers

Tony Martin (1-3-10) has saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers since 2004.

Ted Walsh (1-1-4) & Tom Taaffe (1-1-9) have both saddled a winner & a place in past 10 runnings.

Willie Mullins (1-1-17) trained the winner last year.

Noel Meade (1-1-22) has trained the winner in 2002 & 2011, while Mouse Morris (1-0-7) trained the winner in 2004.

Gordon Elliot (0-3-8) has saddled the runner-up in past 2 years. Arthur Moore (0-3-9), Christy Roche (0-2-7) & Robert Tyner (0-2-9) have each trained multiple placed runners in the past 10 years. Robert Tyner also trained the winner in 2000 & 2001.

 

Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear

4 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)

 

Price

No very strong trend on the prices. Three winners in the last 10 years have been sent off 25/1 or bigger while there have four single-figure priced winners.

Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 9

Carrying 10-11 or less or allotted top weight

Officially rated 124 to 133

Finished in the first 5 last time out in past 60 days (posting RPR of 127+)

Run 2 to 4 times this season

Won or placed at Leopardstown (or first course start)

Second or third season chaser

Won a chase over 2M 4F to 3M

Previously run 3 to 9 times over fences

Run in 1 to 7 handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

Finished in first 4 in Troytown, Cork Grand National and/or 3M Navan EBF Novice H’cap Chase Final

Placed in Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at 2013 Leopardstown Christmas Festival

Won or placed in a Grade (A,B,C) or listed chase

Trained by Tony Martin, Ted Walsh, Tom Taaffe, Gordon Elliot, Arthur Moore or Robert Tyner

CARL’S ANALYSIS

I’m going to keep this very simple as the speed data on the Racing Post is very sporadic.

The trends pick satisfies the first 10 of the trends, 9lbs better off on the profiles. VASCO DU MEE

WELSH NATIONAL

WELSH NATIONAL

The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Saturday 27th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina and previous winning course form is a big plus.

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (for age purposes, assume 2010-11 & 2012-13 renewals were run in 2010 & 2012)
5yo: 0-1-3
6yo: 2-4-19
7yo: 5-3-46
8yo: 3-11-46
9yo: 0-6-38
10yo: 0-4-27
11yo+: 0-1-12
10 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 7-8-68, which compares well to horses aged 8+ of 3-22-123.
Horses aged 9+ have failed to win a single renewal in the past 10 years.

Breeding

French bred: 5-10-46
Irish bred: 4-14-98
GB bred: 1-6-38
USA bred: 0-0-2
French breds have won 5 of last 10 and filled 15 of 40 places from less than 25% of the total runners

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-58
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-120
No very strong trend on weights, though last 3 winners carried 10-0 or 10-1.
Top weight: F3P2377F73 (0-4-10)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 143 or higher: 3-12-58
Horses rated 142 or lower: 7-18-126
6 of last 10 winners (including last 3) were officially rated 137 or lower

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (5 won)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
9 of 10 winners had run once or twice that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (3 exceptions were having their first course start)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases prior to this
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exceptions was a 4th season chaser that had previously finished 3rd in this)
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase)
5 of 10 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F handicap hurdle on 1 of previous 2 runs

Other races

Previous year’s winner (Mountaineous): 572UP (0-1-5)
Coral Welsh Grand National Trial Handicap Chase winner (Rebeccas Choice): 31U (1-1-3)
Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): P42P (0-2-4)
4M NH Novice Chase (Midnight Prayer): 2 (0-1-1)
Betfair Home Of Price Rush Handicap Chase winner (Gas Line Boy): 3 (0-1-1)
Rundle And Co Handicap Chase winner (Rebeccas Choice): PP (0-0-2)
Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 0U7PP (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 41P
2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Towtown Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh National Trial last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Harwell Trophy, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in Newbury Pertemps Qualifier H’cap Hurdle, finishing 27
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals, the Hennessy or NH Chase at Cheltenham (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance and other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start)
4 of 7 second season chaser winners had won a Chepstow novice chase over 3M+ the previous season

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-7-21) unsurprisingly has a good record in the race having won it twice in the last 10 years, also saddled the 2nd & 3rd in 2013.
Richard Lee (2-1-6) trained the winner in 2011 & 2013.
Alan King (1-3-9) has saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the past 10 years.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) has also won the race in the past 10 years.
Evan Williams (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his last 3 runners get placed.
Irish trained runners (1-1-10) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008.

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners raced prominently or in midfield

Price

5 of last 6 winners were priced between 10/1 & 20/1.
The favourite (1-3-11) has won just 1 of last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 6 to 8
– French bred horses do well
– Officially rated 137 or lower
– Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
– Had 1 or 2 runs this season
– Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season
– Course winner (or having first course start)
– Won over 3M or further
– Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
– Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+
– Second or third season chaser
– Finished in first 4 in Midlands National, Haydock Grand National Trial and/or Classic Chase
– Finished in first 3 in Welsh National Trial, Harwell Trophy and/or Towtown Novice Chase
– First 6 in a previous Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
– Trained by Paul Nicholls, Richard Lee, Alan King or Evan Williams
– Tends to race prominently

 

Carl’s Analysis

Back to a large handicap, hopefully I can make up for my woeful choices for Boxing Day, here goes. Trends from 14:

10– Amigo, Shotgun Paddy

9 – Hawkes Point, One in a Milan

8 – Benvolio, Emperors Choice, Woodford County

7 – Monbeg Dude, Mountainous, Rebecca’s Choice, Summery Justice.

 

I’m going to keep this one simple, not part of the trends summary, however, 7 of the last 10 winners carried less than 10-9, without strictest rules with Sad Ken.

 

There is one form and speed horse from the lower end of the card, with a career best and has the best profile of the field that has 5lbs in hand. WOODFORD COUNTY

Page 1 of 1012345...10...Last »