BETFRED GRAND NATIONAL TRAIL

BETFRED GRAND NATIONAL TRAIL

The Betfred Grand National Trial is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 4F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 14th February. It can often provide clues for the different Grand Nationals run later in the season and previous form in other Nationals is often a good guide to finding the winner of this.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-3

7yo: 1-7-21

8yo: 2-8-34

9yo: 4-3-28

10yo: 1-1-27

11yo+: 2-3-20

12yo+: 0-1-10

Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-18-86

Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-5-57

All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-3-21

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-4-38

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 2-10-40

Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 5-6-36

Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-8

Not a huge amount to go on with the weights, only 2 horses managed to carry over 11-0 to victory, both carried top weight.

Top Weight: PFPP1321P2PU (2-3-12) has gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 147 to 158: 1-3-24

Horses rated 135 to 146: 5-10-59

Horses rated 118 to 134: 4-10-60

6 of last 7 winners were all officially rated 129 to 144.

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (2 exceptions were Silver By Nature when winning it for a 2nd year & Rigadin de Beauchene, who was 2nd previous year)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 141+ on last completed start

10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+

10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases

9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases (exception ran in 14)

9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases (exception had yet to win one)

7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (3 exceptions had won a class 3 chase)

8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (1 exception twice 2nd in Welsh National last time & other won Sussex National on previous run)

8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time& other won class 3 Sussex National)

3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (4 of other 7 were having first course start & one was 2nd in previous renewal)

 

Other Races

Previous season’s winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 31PP (1-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from that season’s Welsh National: P5318P2336 (1-4-10)

Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): 1P (1-0-2)

Previous season’s Welsh National winner (Mountainous): 23 (0-2-2)

Peter Marsh Chase winner (Samstown): 8P2U (0-1-4)

Betfair Home of the Price Rush H’cap Chase winner (Gas Line Boy): 4 (0-0-1)

Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner (Broadway Buffalo): 06 (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 1272

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s renewal, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61

7 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Surrey, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser, 1 had won the Grand Sefton on previous start and the other was 2nd in previous year’s GN Trial)

 

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence

 

Trainers

Lucinda Russell (2-0-5) has won 2 of the last 5 renewals with Silver By Nature.

Venetia Williams (1-4-12) trained the 1-2 in 2014 and saddled runner-up in 2013 & 2008.

Michael Scudamore (1-1-3) won it back in 2007 with Heltornic.

Richard Lee (0-3-3) trained Le Beau Bai to place 3 times & Paul Nicholls (0-3-11) has also saddled 3 placed finishers.

Mick Channon (0-1-1) & David Pipe (1-0-5) trained the runner-up in 2014 & 2010.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-13) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 13 runners in past 10 years have made the places, while Philip Hobbs (0-1-5) has also saddled 1 placed runner.

None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.

 

Jockeys

It has paid to use a rider with an allowance in this race as in 9 of the past 10 runnings, 1 of the first 2 home were ridden by a claimer (last 2 winners ridden by claimers):

Claiming riders: 4-10-43

Non-claiming riders: 6-13-100

 

Price

No strong trends on prices, 3 of last 5 winners were priced 4/1 to 7/1 however there have been 5 winners since 2005 priced between 12/1 & 18/1.

Favourites (2-2-11) had a poor record prior to 2012 but have won 2 of the last 3, giving a level stakes profit of 0.50 over past 10 years.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)

- Top weight has a fair record

- Officially rated 129 to 144

- Won or placed last time out

- Posted an RPR of 141 or higher on last completed start

- Posted career high RPR at left-handed track

- Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts

- Won over 2M 7F or further

- Won 2 to 4 times over fences

- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning 1 to 3)

- Course winner (or having first run here)

- Previously finished in first 2 in a Surrey, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National

- Finished in first 2 in Welsh National this season or last year’s Grand National Trial

- Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Lucinda Russell, Venetia Williams or Michael Scudamore

- Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance

 

Carl’s Analysis

Trends from a maximum of 16

12 – BENVOLIO, SAMSTOWN

10 – LIE FORRIT, MONBEG DUDE, REGADIN DE BEAUCHENE

9 – BENBENS, GAS LINE BOY,

8 – BROADWAY BUFFALO, MOUNTAINOUS

With the absence of speed figures for all the horses in this race and looking from a probability angle and satisfying Sad Ken Benvolio will be the preference.

From an ability and form angle then Regadin De Beachene, with the preferred trainer. who hasn’t completed it last couple of races, over a longer distance, but has the best profile of the field.

If looking at breeding the above satisfy then, Lie Forrit and Samstown come into play.

I am tied between Benvolio and Regadin De Beachene with the form on national courses. I think Venitia Williams will land this with REGADIN DU BEAUCHENE

 

BETFAIR HURDLE

BETFAIR HURDLE

The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 7th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 5 winners had run in 6 or fewer hurdles races prior to landing this, with 4 of the 5 being novice hurdlers.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2003-2014):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-2

5yo: 4-11-60

6yo: 4-8-63

7yo: 1-2-41

8yo: 0-4-26

9yo: 1-1-18

10yo+: 0-3-10

5 & 6 year olds have taken 8 of the last 10, the last 8, from just under 56% of total runners. The last winner aged older than 6 was Geos in 2004, when winning the race for a second time as a 9yo.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-14-87

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-15-133

The last 5 winners were allotted 10-6 to 11-2. The only 3 winners, to carry over 11-2 in the past 20 years, had all won a handicap hurdle at class 2 or higher (posting RPR of 150+) last time out.

Top weight: 020P20B750 (0-2-10)

Horses carrying a penalty (0-4-8) won this in 2002 and have seen 4 of their last 8 make the frame.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 144 or more: 4-7-47

Horses rated 131 to 143: 4-19-137

Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-3-36

2 of 4 winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while the other 2 had been placed in a graded NH race.

Both winners rated 130 or lower were trained by Gary Moore.

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)

9 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in 1 of their last 3 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

7 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (3 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)

8 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (2 exceptions had run 6 times)

9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)

Last 8 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles

10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners (last 8) were first or second season hurdlers (exception was Geos winning it for a second time)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 28K+ (4 exceptions were novice hurdlers)

9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

 

Other Races

Adonis Hurdle winner (Activial): 02103 (1-2-5)

Madinat Jumeirah Dubai December Handicap Hurdle winner (Snake Eyes): 10250 (1-1-5)

Ascot Racecourse Novices’ Hurdle winner (Jolly’s Cracked It): 1 (1-0-1)

Betfred Fun And Friendly Novice Hurdle winner (Ballybolley): 1 (1-0-1)

Holloway’s Hurdle winner Baradari): 43 (0-2-2)

Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner (Lightentertainment): 7 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in Madinat Jumeirah Dubai December Handicap Hurdle, finishing 173

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51

2 of 4 novice hurdle winners ran in Ascot Racecourse Novice Hurdle, finishing 12

2 of last 3 winners of Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle, to run in this, have won it.

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (2-3-33) has won this 4 times since 2000, most recently training My Tent Or Yours to win it in 2013.

Gary Moore (2-2-11) trained the winner twice in past 7 runnings.

Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-8) & Paul Nicholls (1-2-15) have both saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the past 5 years.

John Quinn (1-0-2) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) trained the winner in 2011 & 2014 respectively.

Philip Hobbs (0-5-12) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 8 of his 12 runners finishing in the top six, 5 getting placed.

David Pipe (0-5-12) has seen 5 of his last 8 runners make the placed.

John Ferguson (0-1-1) & Richard Newland (0-1-2) have both saddled the runner-up in this.

Irish trained runners (2-2-26) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from 11.9% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.

 

Price

No strong trend on prices, 3 of last 5 winners were first or second favourite while 6 of the last 10 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007 & a 33/1 winner in 2014.

Favourites (3-4-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 4.75.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 or 6 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)

Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)

Posted career high RPR in last 3 starts

Allotted 10-6 to 11-2

First or second season hurdler

Run 10 times or less over hurdles

Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)

Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season (or having first run in a handicap)

Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it

Finished in first 3 in Jumeirah December H’cap Hurdle or Ascot Racecourse Novice Hurdle

Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Steel Plate and Sections H’cap Hurdle last time

Trained by Nicky Henderson, Gary Moore, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs

Carl’s Analysis.

Hoping to get back winning ways after a purple patch, that happens, as I wish I could win them all, but that being unrealistic.

Well for this big handicap, I have recently found myself reading going back to basic from when I started, looking at horse racing about 6 years ago. I have been using a number of methods to get to my final selections. I am really looking forward to this race, a large amount of runners, the type of race that makes one look forward to Cheltenham next month. Hopefully, these races where at least you could find some decent value in. Here we go….

Trends from a maximum of 12

8 – Aso, Arzal, Amore Alato, Jolly’s Cracked It, On Tour, Sign of Victory, Violet Dancer

7- Actival, Ballybollry, Calipto, Cheltenian, Chieftan’s Choice, Ebony Express, Fascino Rustico, Forced Family Fun,          Goodwood Mirage, Vasco Du Ranceray

6 – Bordini, Light Entertainment, Pine Creek.

Plenty to choose from…..

Sad Ken points to On Tour, with maximum scoring, so he must be considered, with a positive profile showing that he has 4 lbs in hand for this race. The only negative is his age. Only one 7 year old has won this race in the past 10 years. Let’s take a look at the others that fit the age criteria.

Aso – Venitia Williams has won a few big races this season, so I pay attention to this one. Very unexposed, this Novice Grade 2 winner. I have not got any speed figures from his recent run and has not been badly treated with a 5 lb rise by winning 4 lengths. I am very tempted by this one e/w given the price.

Amore Alato - Nick Williams is a very respected trainer within FormBet. Has a competent jockey with a massive 37% strike rate over hurdles this season claiming a massive  7 lbs. The form does not stand up much, but the claim will certainly help.

Jolly’s Cracked It – possibly the most unexposed of the field, with plenty of improvement, will it be today?

Vasco Du Ranceray - Could be one to land a surprise, trends trainer, has 3 lbs in hand with the claimer allowance. I have no speed figures for the last race in a Class 3, winning by but breeding is of significance. Al Namix (sire), has a 67% win rate over jumps, although a small sample size, it hard to ignore this Henderson runner. I can’t understand why the price is so big?

Calipto –  The forecast favourite, on level terms on the positive profile as the handicapper has left him alone, even though he produced a career best lto and is creeping down the official rating, surely a danger.

I can go on to mention Light Entertainment and Sleepy Haven too, but I’m not an Times author, not yet anyway.

I did mention going back to basics  by reading some initial stuff, when I first started out, as there is a lot to choose from in the trends results, I look at the Australian Dream Horse Method.

In short, it scores lto race tracks, positions weight and forecast prices, guess what, 3 came on top….

21 – On Tour, Aso, Vasco Du Ranceray

18 – Cailpto

15 – Light Entertainment and Jolly Cracks It.

Verdict – Split stakes on the top 3, 10/1, 33/1 and 40/1 respectively.

Good Luck.

 

 

Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle

Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle

The Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 31st January. A grade 3 handicap hurdle run over 2M 6F, it was won in 2004 by the mighty Baracouda, who shouldered top weight to victory, however that was result was very much out of the norm and most winners in the past 10 renewals have carried lower weights and were far less exposed. The last 3 runnings have been abandoned due to weather.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-4-18

6yo: 4-8-35

7yo: 2-4-33

8yo: 1-5-32

9yo: 2-1-15

10yo+: 0-1-13

7 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 7. The 3 winners aged 8+ were Baracouda (multiple grade 1 winner), Chief Yeoman (runner-up in grade 1 Triumph Hurdle) and Beshabar (grade 3 winner).

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 1-7-45

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 9-16-101

9 of 10 winners carried 10-12 or less, the one exception was Baracouda, who won this under top weight.

Top Weights: 3P17449676 (1-2-10)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 136 or higher: 1-8-44

Horses rated 125 to 135:  7-10-74

Horses rated 124 or less: 2-5-28

The last 7 winners were officially rated 125 to 135. The only winner rated higher than 135 in last 10 runnings was Baracouda (rated 170), when racing against 8 rivals, who were all racing from out of the handicap.

 Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (exception 5th in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle on New Year’s Day)

10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles run

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (exception had run just once)

7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles

9 of 10 winners had 2 or 3 previous hurdle wins

8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 3 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 8 & 9 h’cap hurdles)

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles

7 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a grade 1)

4 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception placed in handicap hurdles worth 16K+ over 2M 4F+ on both runs that season)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdler

6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 hurdle

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdle with 10 or more runners

7 of 10 winners began career in a NH race (1 exception rated 88 on flat and other 2 had run on flat in France)

 

Other Races

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Batavir): 8 (0-0-1)

William Hill Down The App Mares Novice Hurdle winner (A Doll In Milan): P (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle, finishing P0

2 of 10 winners ran in William Download The App H’cap Hurdle, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 5F Uttoxeter Novice hurdle earlier that season

2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 1F Exeter Novice hurdle during the previous calendar year

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-2-8) has saddled 3 winners & 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 renewals.

Suzy Smith (0-1-2) & David Pipe (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.

Lucy Wadham (0-0-3), Alan King (0-0-3), Emma Lavelle (0-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-5) & Oliver Sherwood (0-0-5) have seen their collective 19 runners finish unplaced.

 

Racing Tactics

5 of 10 winners were held up

5 of 10 winners tracked leaders

 

Price

7 of 10 winners came from first 2 in the betting

7 of last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter though 2 of last 3 winners were sent off 10/1 & 16/1.

Favourites (4-1-10) have won 4 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.91.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 5 to 7 (or a previous graded hurdle winner)

– Finished in first 4 last time

– Posted an RPR of 125+ last time out

– Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs

– Run 2 to 4 times this season

– Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (gaining 2 or 3 wins)

– Run in 3 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or less)

– First or Second season hurdler (novices do well)

– Carrying 10-12 or less

– Officially rated 125 to 135

– Won a hurdles race with 10+ runners

– Had first ever start in a point to point, bumper or hurdle (or on flat in France)

– Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (ideally won or placed in a class 1)

– Trained by Paul Nicholls

 

Carl’s Analysis

As Paul Nicholls does not have a runner in this race, the score will be from 13 for the trends, they are as follows:

13 – POLAMCO

11 – HANSUPFORDEETROIT, JUNCTION FORTEEN

10 – ANTEROS, MR GREY

9  – SAFFRON WELLS, CADOUDOFF

POLAMCO, the trends leader also confirmed by Sad Ken, has been impressive and still relatively unexposed. Since Novice hurdling, he has been risen 11 lbs. Giving 4 lbs to the field, still is the one to beat on current form. From the speed figures available, is not the fastest horse in the field but gamely enough.

SAFFRON WELLS, the speed horse has been running credibly and the handicapper has left him alone, in the last 3 races. Came 3rd in a Class 1 race, hopefully the class will put in good stead, the negative is the amount of races he has had.

HANSUPFORDETROIT has been a pretty consistent chaser and is showing the same prowess over hurdles, for the trends age goes against him, but a worthy contender.

JUNCTION FORTEEN, has run in a few too many handicaps, but may not have the speed.

ANTEROS, too many handicaps too, but has ran a career best lto, and is not badly treated either.

 

All in all it is hard to look away from POLAMCO, however the weight rises do concern me, not much, but does, taking into account the speed figures. But I’ll put him up anyway.

The Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase is one of the highlights on the Irish National Hunt calendar each year and takes place at Gowran Park on Thursday 22nd January. The race can often throw up clues for the Irish and Aintree Grand Nationals later in the season with Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde featuring amongst the winners since 2000, while last year’s winner, On His Own, almost followed up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 7 of last 8 winners had contested the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick or Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-1

7yo: 1-4-20

8yo: 2-6-40

9yo: 4-11-47

10yo: 2-7-48

11yo+: 1-2-21

Horses aged 7 to 9: 7-21-107

Horses aged 10+: 3-9-60.

All 3 winners aged 10+ had won or placed in the race in previous 2 years.

Since 1990 there have only been three 6yo runners, 4/1 favourite fell in 1994, 25/1 unplaced in 1998 and 4/1 joint favourite fell in 2013.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

 

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 3-13-78

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 7-17-99

Horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 7 of the last 10 runnings of this race. The 3 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year), Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year) & On His Own in 2014 (won this in 2012).

Top Weight: 44F42010U9 (1-3-10)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 130 or higher: 3-13-71

Horses rated 129 or lower: 7-16-106

7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower, however in recent years the trends has pointed towards higher rated runners, with 7 of the last 8 winners being rated 124+.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas (exception was a previous winner of the race)

8 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts

9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles

7 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 11 chases (3 exceptions had run in 16-17 chases previously)

10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

6 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in a previous renewal)

7 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings

8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase

 

Other Races

Previous year’s winner (On His Own): 6109 (1-0-4)

Highest placed finisher from previous year’s race: P2610907P (1-1-9)

Highest placed finisher from Tim Duggan Memorial H’cap Chase: 6P01270 (1-1-7)

Highest placed finisher from Paddy Power Chase to run in this: 923P3P3697 (0-4-10)

Boylesports Irish Grand National @Fairyhouse H’cap Chase winner (Sword Fish): 2 (0-1-1)

Leinster National winner (Gallant Oscar): 3P (0-1-2)

Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Foxrock): 0038 (0-1-4)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H’cap Chase winner (My Murphy): 7 (0-0-1)

Punchestown Hospitality Beginners Chase winner (The Job Is Right): F (0-0-1)

Bobbyjo Chase winner (On His Own): 6 (0-0-1)

Previous season’s Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Ten Up): 0F5P (0-0-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B

3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown, finishing 044

2 of 10 ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish National, finishing 7F

 

Trainers

Willie Mullins (3-6-25) has trained 5 winners since 2000 and has won 2 of the last 3 runnings with On His Own.

Tony Martin (1-2-5) won this in 2006 and see 4 of his 5 runners since 2005 make first 5.

Paul Gilligan (1-1-2) saddled Jadanli to finish 1st & 3rd in 2013 and 2012.

Robert Tyner (0-2-5) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of the past 3 years.

Gordon Elliot (0-1-4) & Jim Dreaper (0-1-4) have each saddled the runner-up in past 2 runnings.

Noel Meade (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, with his 17 runners since 2000 all finishing unplaced.

 

Running Style

2 of 10 winners led/made all

4 of 10 winners tracked leaders

3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division

1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

The last 5 winners led or tracked leaders.

 

Price

No strong trends on the prices with 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1.

Favourites (1-5-12) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75. Last winning favourite was in 2006.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 7 to 9 (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)

– Carrying 10-9 or less (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes)

– Officially rated 124 to 135

– Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals)

– Won or placed on one or both of last 2 completed chase starts

– Has won over 3M+

– Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

– First or second season chaser (or placed in a previous Thyestes)

– Previously won or placed in a Grade C or higher chase

– Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December

– Placed in the Troytown Chase

– Tends to race prominently

– Trained by Willie Mullins, Paul Gilligan, Tony Martin or Robert Tyner

 

Carl’s Analysis

I’m going to keep this short and sweet.

I must give thanks to Geoff on the FormBet forum who has ran the trends as well, who has pointed out a detail which I missed to narrow down my final selections. We both agree on one though.

Trends from 12

9  – Gallant Oscar, Groody Hill, The Job Is Right, Vasco Du Me

8 – My Murphy, Goonyella, Make A Track.

The focus is, thanks to Geoff, is the weight 10-9 or less, and secondly 1st and 2nd season chasers that frank the form running in the Paddy Power, and thirdly, who has run in less than 7 handicap chases.

THE JOB IS RIGHT 10/1 & VACSO DU ME 25/1

Classic Chase Trends

Classic Chase Trends

The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 10th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.

Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2002:

 Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-2

7yo: 2-6-16

8yo: 2-8-26

9yo: 3-3-36

10yo: 1-1-23

11yo: 1-2-18

12yo+: 1-1-14

No strong trend on ages, though all 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-11-81

French bred: 2-5-27

GB bred: 1-5-25

Other: 0-0-2

Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 60% of the total runners.

French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-5-16 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-11.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

 

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 6-9-66

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-12-69

In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 6 of last 7 winners and 12 of the 21 placed finishers in past 7 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.

Top weight: 4FPB0P36152 (1-2-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-28

Horses rated 129 to 140: 7-11-68

Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-39

In past 7 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners:

Horses rated 133 or higher: 6-8-47

Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-6-48

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)

10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 136+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track

8 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases

8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase

7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)

 

Other Races

Previous year’s winner (Shotgun Paddy): 0 (0-0-1)

Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Ballyoliver): P3 (0-1-2)

Totesport Supporting Welsh Racing Handicap Chase winner (Cadeau George): P (0-0-1)

Jockey Club Catering Festive Christmas Handicap Chase winner (Incentivise): 0F (0-0-2)

London National winner (Tales Of Milan): PPP (0-0-3)

Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Adrenalin Flight): FPP (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Scottish National, finishing 02

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Grand National, finishing U0

2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H’cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P

2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00

 

Trainers

Alan King (2-2-7) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 5 and saddled runner-up in 2013.

Paul Nicholls (2-1-9) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007.

Venetia Williams (1-2-8) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 9 runners.

Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) trained Hey Big Spender to win this in 2012 & Emma Lavelle (1-0-2) won it last year with Shotgun Paddy.

Mark Bradstock (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year.

 

Price

No very strong trend on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 3 going off at 14/1, 18/1 & 25/1.

Favourites (1-4-11) have won just one running since 2002, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:

– Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger

– Carrying 10-9 or more

– Officially rated 133 or higher

– Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days

– Posted an RPR of 136+ in one or both of last 2 starts

– Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track

– Previously won at least twice over fences

– Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

– Previously contested a graded chase (or rated lower than 130)

– Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National

– Finished in first 4 in Majodormo Hospitality Handicap Chase

– Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls, C Tizzard or Ian Williams

 

Carl’s Analysis

Trends scoring from 12:

9 – West End Rocker

8 – Bebane Head, Theatrical Star

7 – Return Spring, Hawkes Point, Shotgun Paddy.

I’m keeping this one short and sweet. There is only one leading on Sad Ken with form, speed and ability with best profile of the field, with 2 lbs in hand, at the age of 13; West End Rocker, who tops the trends.

A risk, as age and running in too many handicap chases certainly goes against him trends wise, but that also applies to many for this race. Those that satisfy will be Hawkes Point and Shotgun Paddy, but the speed figures are too far off from my nomination.

The other to consider on form and speed alone, who has 5lbs in hand, is Sixty Something who scored 6 on the trends but will need to improve, as it has not been in graded company yet, but for me possibly will make the frame. Another with a similar profile will be Ballyoliver.

If I was not applying the strictest rules, then I will put up all three, but stats rule my head in this case. Therefore, WEST END ROCKER for the win and Ballyoliver and Sixty Something each way.

Topaz Novices Chase

Topaz Novices Chase

The Grade 1 Topaz Novice Chase (formerly the Knight Frank), run over 3 miles, takes place at Leopardstown on Monday 29th December. This is usually a top class race that gives clues for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. The runner-up in 2009, Weapon’s Amnesty, and the 2010 winner, Bostons Angel, both went on to win the RSA at the Festival.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-10

6yo: 6-12-45

7yo: 4-4-27

8yo: 0-1-6

9yo: 0-0-4

Horses aged 6 or 7 have won the last 10 & filled 26 of 27 places in the past 9 years.

6yos have a particularly strong record, having won 7 of last 10 & filled 9 of 12 places in last 4 years.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their last completed start (exception was 4th in Drinmore)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners posted their highest chase RPR in one of their last 2 starts

6 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 148+ on last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts (exception runner-up in Drinmore & Kerry National on last 2 runs)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

8 of 10 winners had previously run 2 or 3 times over fences (2 exceptions were 2nd season chasers)

10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a bumper, Pt to Pt or hurdle

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle or chase

 

Other Races

Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shanahan’s Turn): 1FPP24112 (3-2-9)

Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 121 (2-1-3)

Previous season’s Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Apache Stronghold): 11P (2-0-3)

WB Gavin EBF Beginners Chase winner (Very Wood): 1F51F (2-0-5)

Ballymore Christmas Fair November Festival Beginners Chase winner (Shanahan’s Turn): 4P141 (2-0-5)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Band Of Blood): 31P3 (1-2-4)

Porter & Co Beginners Chase winner (Apache Stronghold): 251 (1-1-3)

Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase (Valseur Lido): FP1F (1-0-4)

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner (Very Wood): 2 (0-1-1)

www.thurlesraces.ie Beginners Chase winner (Allied Victory): 3 (0-1-1)

Naas Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (Real Steel): 3 (0-1-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Don Poli): 82 (0-1-2)

Boylesports Irish Grand National Beginners Chase winner (Adrianna Des Mottes): 2F5P3 (0-1-5)

Galmoy Hurdle winner (Mala Beach): 7 (0-0-1)

Limestone Lad Hurdle winner (Rule The World): 4 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore last time, finishing 21P142

3 of 10 winners ran in Florida Pearl Novice Chase, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in WB Gavin Beginners Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Ballymore Christmas Fair & Family Fun November Festival Beginners Chase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners won the previous season’s Monksfield Novice Hurdle

3 of last 7 winners won their beginners chase over 2M 4F at Punchestown, one other was 2nd in one and 2 of last 3 winners won a 2M 6F grade 2 at Punchestown

 

Trainers

Noel Meade (2-1-9) trained back to back winners in 2008 & 2009.

Willie Mullins (1-3-7) trained the 1-2 in 2012.

 

Price

8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, though in the past 5 years there have been 2 winners priced 14/1 and 25/1.

Favourites (4-4-11) have won 4 of last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.75.

Conclusion:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 or 7

Run at least twice this season

Finished in the first 2 last time out in past 40 days

- Won 1 or both of last 2 starts

Won over 2M 4F+

Run in 2 or 3 chases prior to this (or second season chaser)

Finished in first 2 in a Punchestown chase over 2M 4F+

Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase or hurdle

Won Florida Pearl Novice Chase and/or WB Gavin Beginners Chase

Had last start in the Drinmore Novice Chase

Trained by Willie Mullins or Noel Meade

Carl’s Analysis 

Two at the head of the trends here, APACHE STRONGHOLD and SHANAHAN’S TURN.

Not much to go by in positive profiles across the field, due to limitations of info, but I can tell you this.

Apache Stronghold is the speed of the field and is 3lbs better off.

Shanahan’s turn is the Sad Ken pick and is 3lbs worse off.

Second in the trends are Mala Beach and Very Wood, respectively their speed figures suggest that they have to improve significantly.

What about the favourite Don Poli… a form horse and a career best lto, better off by 2lbs, but scored a lowly 5 in the trends against 9 of the leaders.

I’ll split stakes with the trends leaders as it is hard to split them.

 

RYAN AIR HURDLE

RYAN AIR HURDLE

The Ryanair Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth and final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, on Monday 29th December. A grade 1 hurdle, run over 2 miles, it attracts the top Irish hopes for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and has been won by the likes of Istabraq, Brave Inca, Sublimity and Hurricane Fly since 2000. This year’s renewal looks likely to see another battle between old foes, Hurricane Fly & Jezki, who finished 1-2 in last year’s race.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-1-6

5yo: 2-2-9

6yo: 1-3-18

7yo: 2-1-13

8yo: 3-0-4

9yo: 1-1-3

10yo: 0-2-2

11yo+: 0-0-3

Horses aged 4 to 6: 4-6-33

Horses aged 7 to 10: 6-4-22

The only 2 horses aged over 8 to ever win the race have been the mighty Istabraq, who was winning it for the fourth time & Hurricane Fly, who won it for a third time last year.

 

Gender

Mares (1-1-4) have gained 2 wins and 2 seconds from 7 runners since 2002.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last hurdles start

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ in last 2 starts (exception was a 4yo)

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times over hurdles that season

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on all hurdles starts that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a grade 1 hurdle (exception had won a grade 3)

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a hurdle at Leopardstown before (exception was having first course start)

6 of 10 winners had won over this CD

 

Other Races

Previous Year’s winner (Hurricane Fly): 412221 (2-3-6)

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 1311111 (6-0-7)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 123812211 (4-2-9)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 125211 (3-2-6)

Champion Hurdle winner (Jezki): 311 (2-0-3)

Triumph Hurdle winner (Tiger Roll): 3 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 223

3 of 10 winners ran in the Hattons Grace last time, finishing 311

6 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 122111

6 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 313111

5 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 31421

4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 2111

4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing FU11

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s race, finishing 141

The last 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 32

The last 2 winners aged 4 ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 21

 

Trainers

Willie Mullins (3-1-8) trained Hurricane Fly to win this in 2010 & 2012.

Jessica Harrington (1-1-5) trained the winner 2004 and 2nd in 2003 & 2013.

 

Price

9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 3 in the betting

All 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter.

The favourite (4-2-10) has a fair record, having won 4 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes loss of 3.25.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 8 (or a previous winner)

- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time out

- Ran no more than 3 times this season

- Posted an RPR of 151+ last time out

- Finished in first 3 on all starts this season

- Previous grade 1 hurdle winner

- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over the course and distance

- Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time

- Finished in first 3 in Morgiana, and/or 2014 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle

- Finished in first 2 in Irish Champion and/or Punchestown Champion Hurdle

- From the first 3 in the betting

Carl’s Analysis

Marvin Hagler vs Sugar Ray Leonard, Sebastian Coe vs Steve Ovette, Steve Davies vs Hurricane Higgins….

Today it’s Hurricane Fly vs Jezki!

Both at the Head of the trends and Jezki just has it. Sad Ken puts forward Hurricane. 8/11 or 11/8. The difference in the trends is just the age with Hurricane Fly getting a bit long in the fang with a massive 81% of winning vs 69% for Jezki, not much between them in ability, so those are the horses to beat.

If one of them falls, probably not but what about the rest of the field….

Alderwood was one that caught my eye, hasn’t run over hurdles in 2 years but is the form and speed horse of the field with the best profile. A Grade 1,2 and 3 winner over hurdles, has been chasing since, Just one of interest, with a career best lto over hurdles and another in the Clonmel Oil Chase this year, looks a real contender, even though 3 figure odds doesn’t suggest.

Artic Fire and Tiger Roll (the triumph hurdle winner at Cheltenham), both have career bests with Tiger Roll having a Grade 1 win, does Cheltenham form travel here.

It will take a brave person to take an e/w bet on Alderwood or Tiger Roll, with only two places to offer with two great horses at the head of the field.

If one is to go by the trends alone, then Jezki, Sad Ken; Hurricane Fly.

 

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