LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE

LADBROKE HANDICAP HURDLE

The Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle) takes place at Ascot on Saturday, 20th December. A highly competitive grade 3 handicap, it is generally won by more unexposed improving types. The race was first run in 2001, but has taken place at Sandown twice and was abandoned in 2009 & 2010.

Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 runnings since 2002.

 Age (for age stats we are taking it that 04-05 & 05-06 runnings took place in December)

4yo: 2-10-51

5yo: 4-7-62

6yo: 3-8-39

7yo: 1-3-24

8yo: 0-1-16

9yo+: 0-1-3

The last 9 winners have been aged 4 to 6

The only winner aged older than 6 was Chauvinist (7yo) in 2002. He had begun his racing career late (aged 6) and had run in just 4 hurdles race prior to this & was making handicap debut.

Horses aged 8+ (0-2-19) have a very poor record having gained no wins and just 2 places from 19 runners.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-19-120

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-11-75

Horses carrying 10-9+ have won 7 of last 10 runnings of the Ladbroke. All 3 winners to carry less than 10-9 had previously won a race that season.

Top Weight: P400070022 (0-3-10)

Horses carrying a penalty: 43001 (1-2-5)
Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 2-8-38

Horses rated 130 to 139: 5-13-104

Horses rated 129 or lower: 3-9-53

7 of last 8 winners were officially rated between 130 and 144

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

5 of 10 winners won last time out

9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR in their last 2 starts

7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 130+ last time out

7 of 10 winners was had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles that season

9 of 10 winners ran in 4 to 10 hurdles races prior to this

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 times over hurdles

8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap hurdles (exceptions had run in 7 & 12)

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles

8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers (exceptions were 3rd & 4th season hurdlers)

The 10 winners had collectively had 16 prior hurdles starts since 1st June that year before winning this, finishing in first 3 in 15 of those 16.

 

Other races

Record of first 3 from CF Roberts Electrical/Mechanical Services H’cap Hurdle: 81391413 (3-3-8)

Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner (Ballyglasheen): 1 (1-0-1)

WilliamHill.com H’cap Hurdle winner (Sign Of A Victory):  5107 (1-0-4)

Ultima Mark And Jared Johnson Novices’ Hurdle winner (Sign Of A Victory): 20 (0-1-2)

Greatwood Hurdle winner (Garde La Victoire): 400U (0-1-4)

Adonis Juvenile Hurdle winner (Activial): P0 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services H’cap Hurdle last time, finishing 321

2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 70

5 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 County Hurdle, 1 Arkle, 1 Triumph & 1 Supreme Novices)

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (3-3-19) has won 3 of 11 runnings to date, including 2 of last 5, and also saddled the runner-up in two other years, including 2012.

The Pipe stable (3-3-25) have also won the race 3 times since its inception in 2001.

Gordon Elliot (1-1-2) has saddled the 2012 winner and 2013 third from 2 runners.

Venetia Williams (1-1-7) has saddled the winner and a placed finisher in this race.

Dan Skelton (1-0-1) trained Willow’s Saviour to win it last year.

Philip Hobbs (0-2-10) have saddled 3 placed finishers in race’s history.

Willie Mullins (0-0-6) & Jonjo O’Neill (0-0-4) have seen their collective 10 runners finish unplaced.

Irish trained runners (1-2-20) have gained 1 winner & 2 places from 21 representatives, though if you remove Gordon Elliot’s runners, their record becomes 0-1-19.

 

Running Style

7 of 10 winners were held up in rear or midfield

3 of 10 winners chased leaders

 

Price

6 of 10 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 14/1 but there have been 3 winners priced 25/1 or bigger.

Favourites (1-1-10) have a poor record having won just 1 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 4 to 6

Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)

Posted a career high RPR of 131+ in last 2 starts

Carrying 10-9+ (or carrying a lower weight but won a race this season)

Officially rated 130 to 144

Finished in first 3 in all starts this season

Second season hurdler

Run 4 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 3)

Run in 4 or less handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)

Ran at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival

Finished in first 3 in CF Roberts Electrical Mechanical Services H’cap Hurdle

Trained by Nicky Henderson, David Pipe, Dan Skelton or Gordon Elliot

Hold up horses favoured

 

Carl’s Analysis

Results scoring from 13 trends criteria

10 – Goodwood Mirage, Shelford

9 – Garde La Victiore

8 – Ballyglasheen, Foxcub, Gassin Golf, Pyromaniac

7 –Bayan, Hello George, Pine Creek

6 – Cool Macavity, Sea Beat

5 – Actival, Balgarry, Jebril, Millenaforliesure,

4- Clondaw Warrior, Swing Bowler.

 

 

Number of strong contenders for the trends; just like last week’s big race. Notice a few at the head of the forecast betting score low on the trends. Hopefully dome value here?

Cross analysis below for Sad Ken form and speed listed in order of superiority. I have chosen not to apply the strongest rules again, but I will highlight those who do satisfy as a point of interest.

Form: Shelford, Garde La Victiore, Pyromaniac, Gassin Golf, Bayan, Hello George, Balgarry, Foxcub

Speed: Swing Bowler, Garde La Victiore, Bayan, Gassin Golf, Pyromaniac, Cool Macavity

Strictest Rules: Balgarry, Barryglasheen, Clondaw Warrior, Hello George

Form and speed against profile:

Garde La Victiore against the weight rise is actually only a pound worse off. The OR is too high against the trends, however 2 winners of the last 10 renewals have done. Career best last time out

Bayan has exactly the profile as the above

Gassin Golf, career best lto, yet to win, has been seriously knocking on the door for a win this year. Has a 4lb advantage and the best profile of the field.

Pyromaniac from Ireland, is another with a 5lb advantage over the field, unexposed, will need some improvement, may have it in him, breeding suggests??

Another to mention, the speediest horse is Swing Bolwer, the form may not stand out but has been racing in graded company for over 18 months, 5lbs better off and the yard is shrewd!!

This is my shortlist, and some e/w value with 3 over 16/1

Nail me down to one, there is a logical choice. Without the strictest Sad Ken rules but ranks 2nd for form and 1st for ability and probability with a career best lto.

GARDE LA VICTIORE

INTERNATIONAL HURDLE

INTERNATIONAL HURDLE

The StanJames.com International Hurdle (formerly the Bula) is a grade 2 hurdle run over 2M 1F and it takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 143h December. In recent years the Greatwood Hurdle has proven a key race in finding the winner, with 6 of last 9 British-trained winners of this having run in it on their previous start.

 

In 2008 the race was run at Ascot after being abandoned at Cheltenham. From a trends point of view we will focus on the 10 runnings from 2002 to 2012 (excluding 2008):

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 2-5-16

5yo: 5-3-19

6yo: 1-2-11

7yo: 2-2-12

8yo: 0-1-6

9yo+: 0-0-9

Younger horses have held sway recently, with 6 of last 7 winners aged 4 or 5.

Horses aged 4 or 5 have a combined record of 7-8-35 which compares well to horses aged 6+ of 3-5-38.

The last 15 horses aged 8+ to run in this gained no wins and just 1 place.

5 of 7 horses aged 4 to make the frame had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 at Cheltenham Festival (other 2 won the Ascot Hurdle or Racing Post Hurdle on previous start)

 

Weight

Horses carrying 11-8: 3-5-25

Horses carrying 11-4: 6-6-26

Horses carrying 11-0: 1-2-21

6 of the last 10 winners carried 11-4. All 3 winners to carry 11-8 were sent off favourite (2 odds on).

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 runners had finished in first 3 last time (7 won)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run in the last 35 days

9 of 10 winners had won a graded or listed hurdle

7 of last 9 winners had won a grade 1

7 of 10 winners were course and distance winners (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in Greatwood Hurdle, 2nd in Champion Hurdle & 3rd in Triumph Hurdle)

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 6 hurdles races previously

10 of 10 winners were officially rated 148+ (last 4 rated 162+)

 

Other Races

Previous year’s winner (The New One): 422 (0-2-3)

Highest placed finisher in the Greatwood Hurdle: 1361111364 (5-1-10)

Williamhill.com Hurdle winner (The New One): 11 (2-0-2)

Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle winner (The New One): 1 (1-0-1)

Aintree Hurdle winner (The New One): 2 (0-1-1)

WilliamHill.com H’cap Hurdle winner (Sign Of A Victory): 3 (0-1-1)

5 of 10 winners ran in Greatwood Hurdle last time, finishing 11211

3 of 10 winners ran in Elite Hurdle, finishing 4F1

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Aintree Hurdle, finishing F2

2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 25

2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 13

2 of 2 winners aged 4 ran in Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 1B

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 42

2 of 10 winners ran in the WilliamHill.com Hurdle, finishing 11

7 of 10 winners ran at the Aintree National meeting (2 Top Novice, 2 Anniversary, 2 Aintree Hurdle and 1 Silver Cross H’cap Hurdle)

Relkeel who won the race in 1997, 98 & 99 was the last horse to win the race and run in it the following year.

 

Trainers

Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-0-5) trained Khyber Kim to win this in 2009 and The New One last year.

Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) saddled Grandouet to win this in 2011 and also won the rescheduled race at Ascot in 2008 with Binocular, both 4yos.

Irish trained-runners (2-1-10) have gained 2 winners and 1 second from 10 runners. Both winners had finished in first 3 in the Morgiana on previous start.

 

Price

The favourite (7-1-12) has won 7 of the last 10 & shows a level stakes profit of 5.18 since 2003.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 4 to 7 (ideally 4 or 5)

Finished in the first 3 last time out in the past 35 days

Posted at RPR of 150+ last time out

Had previously run at least 6 times over hurdles

Officially rated 160+

Carrying 11-4

Previously won a listed or graded hurdle (ideally won a grade 1)

Course and distance winner (or placed in a grade 1 over this CD)

Finished in first 2 in the Greatwood Hurdle

Ran in County, Triumph or Champion Hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival

Contested a hurdles race at the 2014 Aintree Festival

Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or a Nicky Henderson 4yo

Favourite does well

 

Carl’s Analysis

From 13

12 – The New One

6 – Vaniteux, Zandy Man

4 – Bertimont, King of the Picts

The New One is the trends pick here, at 4/7 if one wants to take that price.

With such a short price shoe in, the is a good e/w bet to find, but I will be tentative as the information from the Racing Post is not complete, so I will do the best with what I’ve got.

I will put up Bertimont @ 20/1 e/w. Career best last time out in a Grade 2 hurdle,  with a level profile. The only value I can see with for 3 places in the race.

CASPIAN CAVIAR (DECEMBER) GOLD CUP

CASPIAN CAVIAR (DECEMBER) GOLD CUP

The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (formerly sponsored by Boylesports and several others) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 13th December. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 5 of the last 9 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.

The race was not run in 2008. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2003 to 2013):

 Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 1-0-1

5yo: 0-3-8

6yo: 3-7-28

7yo: 5-7-37

8yo: 1-7-33

9yo: 0-2-25

10yo+: 0-0-18

Horses aged 4 to 7: 9-17-74

Horses 8+: 1-10-76

6 & 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 43.3% of the total runners.

Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 43 runners since 2003. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged older than 9.

 

Breeding

French bred: 7-10-52

Irish bred: 3-15-64

British bred: 0-1-27

German bred: 0-0-3

American bred: 0-0-2

NZ bred: 0-0-2

French bred horses have won 7 of last 10 runnings and they have represented just 34.7% of total runners. All French bred winners were aged 7 or younger.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-10-69

Horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 5-16-81

No very strong trends on weight carried by the winners.

Record of top weight: P4P5PR9102P7 (1-1-12). Poquelin won the race in 2010 under top weight, though had a claimer taking 5lbs off.

4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty since 2000 have been placed.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 145 or higher: 5-13-74

Horses rated 144 or lower: 5-13-76

No huge bias on official ratings over the past 10 renewals, however if we focus on the past 7 renewals:

Horses rated 145 or higher: 5-11-54

Horses rated 144 or lower: 2-7-50

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times since 1st July

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 142+ last time out

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days

9 of 10 winners had previously contested 5 to 14 chases (exception had run in 3)

9 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 times over fences (exception had won just 1 chase)

9 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases (exception was Poquelin winning it for a 2nd time in 2010)

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

6 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (3 exceptions were 3rd season chasers & other was a first season chaser)

8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase (2 exception were novices that had yet run in a class 1 chase)

7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham

 

Other Races

Share Centre Simply Easier Handicap Chase winner (Sound Investment): 13 (1-1-2)

John H Kenny Memorial Cup winner (Carrigmorna King): 1 (1-0-1)

Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Caid Du Berlais): P1505 (1-0-5)

Horses that placed in Paddy Power Gold Cup: 021B0PP5616U1293 (3-3-16)

Bet365 Open Handicap Chase winner (No Buts): F2 (0-1-2)

Record of horses that won or placed in Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase: 3184U1 (2-2-6)

Record of highest placed finisher from Arkle Novice Chase: B2194628 (1-3-8)

Record of highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: F919 (1-0-4)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 31252

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 37

2 of 10 winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 42

7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (1 Arkle, 1 Grand Annual, 1 RSA, 1 Coral Cup, 1 Martin Pipe, 1 Ryanair & 2 Rewards4Racing Nov H’cap Chase)

4 of 10 winners contested a chase at that year’s Aintree Festival

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-6-20) saddled Poquelin to win the race in 2009 & 2010 and Unioniste in 2012. He has had a winner or placed finisher in 8 of the last 10 runnings.

Nicky Henderson (2-0-12) has also trained 3 of the last 11 winners of this.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-14) has saddled the winner and 3 placed finishers from 14 runners since 2003.

Philip Hobbs (1-2-6) & David Pipe (1-2-15) have both saddled a winner and 2 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.

Irish trained horses (1-1-15) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 20 runners since 2000. Both winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival.

 

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however the other 3 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.

Favourites (1-4-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– French bred aged 6 or 7

– Officially rated 145+

– Run 1 to 3 times this season

– Finished in the first 3 last time & posted an RPR of 142+

– Ran in the last 30 days

– Run in 5 to 14 chases (winning 2 to 4)

– Run in 4 or less handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

– 2nd or 3rd season chaser

– Previously won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham

– Won or placed in a graded chase

– Finished in first 5 in Paddy Power Gold Cup

– Ran in 2014 Arkle or Rewards4Racing Novice H’cap Chase

– Trained by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls

 

Carl’s Analysis

Trends from a summary of 13 criteria:

12 – Caid Du Berlais

7 – Darna, Edgardo Sol, Enritch

5 – Barakilla, Easter Meteor, No Buts, Splash of Ginge

4 – Attaglance,  Niceonefrankie, What a Warrior, Workbench

Caid Du Burlais, who won the Paddy Power Gold Cup, whom I didn’t consider, stands out on these trends as opposed to Paddy Power Trends, and can say is the obvious pick with a five point dominance.

Sad Ken’s strictest rules, rules him out again!!!

Let down by his form, speed last time out? Questionable?? However, a level profile considering the weight rise.

So does Ken like strictly speaking?

Barakilla… Is the one that stands out, on from alone, better speed figures and has 5lbs in hand for this race. Stepping up 2 classes.

Ericht..Shows up behind the fore mentioned, had trouble in running lto, the handicapper has left him alone, but has a prolific jockey this time.

With relaxed rules Darna is another to consider, similar results to Barakilla with a level profile.

Niceonefrankie has caught my eye, although stepping up, two classes. Won last time out by 12 lengths with a 13lb rise, still has 7lbs in hand based on his last performance with the best profile of the field. Think he is a solid e/w bet.

Attaglance is a bit of an unknown, hasn’t shown much, but did have a career best last time out.

Easter Meteor…jury’s out one him, some good, speed figures, hasn’t shown much lately, but one to watch.

Edgardo Sol, is much better than, than Dad Ken suggests, another possible e/w bet.

Class 1 form rules in these trends, Caid Du Berlais, is the obvious pick here.

I expect Ericht to have a much better run this time, and Niceonefrankie and Edgardo Sol, all to possibly make the frame.

JOHN DURKAN CHASE

JOHN DURKAN CHASE

The Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase takes place on Sunday, 7th December. The best Irish staying chasers of recent times have won this, including Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon and Kicking King. This year’s renewal could see the return to the track for the 2014 Gold Cup winner, Lord Windermere.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 4-1-9

7yo: 2-4-11

8yo: 4-5-23

9yo: 0-3-16

10yo+: 0-0-7

Horses aged 6 to 8: 10-10-43

Horses aged 9+: 0-3-23

The only winner aged older than 8 was Native Upmanship in 2002, who had finished 1st and 2nd previous 2 years.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception unseated)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ last time out (exception unseated)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ on last 2 completed starts

10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase

5 of 10 winners had won a Grade 1 chase (5 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)

10 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 14 chases prior to this

10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

10 of 10 were officially rated 150+

 

Other Races

Powers Irish Whiskey Chase winner (Don Cossack): 131 (2-1-3)

Previous season’s Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 41 (1-0-2)

Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 523 (0-2-3)

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Lord Windermere): 2 (0-1-1)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 32F (0-1-3)

Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Texas Jack): 44 (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in Gowran Champion Chase, finishing 13 (would have been 11 but for a last fence fall)

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase last time, finishing 2U

2 of 10 winners ran in Clonmel Oil Chase last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in Fortria Chase last time, finishing 31

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing B31

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 23P

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 221

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 11F

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Powers Irish Whiskey Chase last time, finishing 11

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Naas Directors Plate, finishing 11

6 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (3 Arkle, 2 Ryanair & 1 Gold Cup)

5 of 10 winners ran at the Punchestown Festival (3 Ryanair Novice, 1 Gold Cup & 1 Growise Novice Chase)

 

Trainers

Willie Mullins (1-1-11) trained Florida Pearl to win this in 2001 but had struggled in the race in the following 11 years before winning it with Arvika Ligeonniere last year (though it was only a 3-runner race, in which he saddled the first 2 in the betting).

Robert Hennessy (1-0-3) saddled Ruby Light to win this in 2011.

Mouse Morris (0-2-3) won this in 1993 with Cahervillahow and has seen 2 of his last 3 runners get placed.

Noel Meade (0-0-5) has seen his 5 runners since 2004 all finish out of the places.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below

The last 10 winners all came from the first 4 in the betting.

Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 2.20.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 8

- Run once or twice this season

- Has run since October

- Finished in first 3 last time, posting RPR of 151+

- Posted an RPR of 157+ in last 2 starts

- Won over 2M 4F or further

- Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)

- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase

- Previously run 5 to 14 times over fences

- Second or third season chaser

- Officially rated 150+

- Finished in first 2 in Lexus and/or Hennessy Gold Cup

- 2nd season chaser that finished in first 3 in Arkle, Powers Gold Cup, Irish Arkle and/or Ryanair Novice Chase

- Last run in Powers Irish Whisky, Clonmel Oil, Fortria or JNWine Champion Chase

- Priced 7/1 or below

- Willie Mullins & Noel Meade do not have great recent records in this

Carl’s Analysis

From 15

13- Don Cossack

11 – Boston Bob

10 -Texas Jack

8 – Lord Windermere

From above the choice is obvious, however, I will choose the last on the list going against the grain of the trends.

It is hard for me to ignore the form of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, posting up a career best, A superior positive profile. Albeit, going up 11lbs, the profile suggests that it still has 7lbs in hand. For me the drift from the 11/2 forecast betting, the price is too big currently at 10/1.

LORD WINDERMERE

 

 

 

BECHER CHASE TRENDS 2014

BECHER CHASE TRENDS 2014

The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, which takes place on Saturday 6th December, is a 3M 2F listed contest run over the Grand National fences. Twice since 2000, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season).

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-2

6yo: 0-3-8

7yo: 1-2-18

8yo: 1-5-22

9yo: 4-8-44

10yo: 2-2-36

11yo: 0-4-18

12yo+: 2-1-15

6 of 10 winners were aged 9 or 10 though that age bracket accounted for just over 40% of total runners.

The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2004 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.

Only winner aged over 10 was Hello Bud in 2010 & 2012. Prior to his first win the race, he had finished 5th in previous season’s Becher Chase and also that year’s Grand National.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 9-17-99

French bred: 1-7-39

GB bred: 0-2-25

Chance Du Roy’s win last year has been on the only non-Irish bred winner in past 10 years.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 4-11-74

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 6-15-89

There are no very strong trends on the weights, 7 of 10 carried 10-10 or less, while the other 3 carried 11-5 or more.

Top Weight: 541FP155PP (2-1-10)

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-26

Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-7

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 3-7-48

Horses rated 130 to 139: 6-9-78

Horses rated 112 to 127: 1-10-37

5 of last 6 winners were racing off marks between 130 to 139.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days

10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race

7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in at least 13 chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

7 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 8 handicap chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions were Hello Bud who won it in 2010 & 2012)

6 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls & other was Hello Bud winning it for second time)

8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher

5 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

 

Other Races

Previous season’s winner (Chance Du Roy): 2UP (0-1-3)

Betfair Cash Out Handicap Chase winner (Ballybough Gorta): 4 (0-1-1)

Miller Howe Cavendish Cup Handicap Chase winner (Balbriggan): 4 (0-1-1)

Foundation Developements Ltd Handicap Chase winner (Mendip Express):6 (0-0-1)

Scottish National winner (Al Co): 5F (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in that year’s Grand National, finishing F5B7

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in previous Becher Chase, finishing 5UF

3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase in December, finishing 042

3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous year’s Troytown, finishing 764

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Handicap Chase, finishing 44

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing P8

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase, finishing 02

3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8P

3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 115

 

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders throughout

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-5-17) has trained the winner three times in the past 10 years and had the runner-up in 4 of the other 7.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-1-9) saddled Hello Bud to win it in 2010 & 2012 and had Baby Run finish 2nd in 2013.

Philip Hobbs (1-0-4) trained Chance Du Roy to win this last year.

Peter Bowen (0-4-15) has saddled 4 places in past 10 years.

Venetia Williams (0-1-2), Tom George (0-1-3), Sue Smith (0-1-4) & David Pipe (0-1-8) have each trained one placed finisher since 2004.

Irish based trainers (3-2-28) have a good recent record, having won it 3 times in last 8 years.

 

Price

The last 7 winners were priced between 7/1 & 14/1

Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 3.50.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 9 or 10

- Irish bred

- Officially rated 130 to 139

- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start

- Has run in the last 45 days

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)

- Run at least 13 times over fences

- Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2)

- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)

- Made racecourse debut in a NH race

- Has run over the National fences (ideally in 2013 Becher or 2014 Grand National)

- Ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, Classic Chase, Troytown and/or Paddy Power Chase

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies

Carl’s Analysis

I sincerely apologise, to those who have been reading the blog recently for the late posting of this. Due the limitation of time, I was not able to write up a full analysis before the race, but I did put up a quick post on the members forum. My two selections between KNOCK A HAND and OSCAR TIME, two which OSCAR TIME had won at 33/1.

Varied results, from the trends with a large number of selections but I will apply what I have learnt from running these so early in the season.

Trends from 13

9 – Burton Port, Lion Na Bernai, Across the Bay
8 – Benbens, Oscar Time, The Package, Alfie Spinner, Saint Are
7 – Al Co, Balbriggan, Ballybough Gorta, Knock a Hand, Kruzhlinin, Mr Moonshine.

Sad Ken.

I will not apply the strictest rules, at this time in the season, as all the horses have not had enough runs for full analysis to be applied correctly but will concentrate on form, speed and positive profiles. My shortlist:

Knock A Hand, Oscar Time

KNOCK A HAND is the true from and speed horse posting a career best last time out.

OSCAR TIME’s superior speed in it’s last chase at Aintree, having a massive 9lbs in hand since then winning two hunter chases in between seemed to be well prepped for this race. Sire stats for Oscar is a massive 38% over jumps, as an additional positive.

I sincerely apologies for those who visit the website and missed out on a great betting opportunity. Keep visiting as there are plenty more opportunities like this to come.

TINGLE CREEK 2014

TINGLE CREEK 2014

The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, which takes place on Saturday 6th December, is a 3M 2F listed contest run over the Grand National fences. Twice since 2000, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season).

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-1-2

6yo: 0-3-8

7yo: 1-2-18

8yo: 1-5-22

9yo: 4-8-44

10yo: 2-2-36

11yo: 0-4-18

12yo+: 2-1-15

6 of 10 winners were aged 9 or 10 though that age bracket accounted for just over 40% of total runners.

The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2004 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.

Only winner aged over 10 was Hello Bud in 2010 & 2012. Prior to his first win the race, he had finished 5th in previous season’s Becher Chase and also that year’s Grand National.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 9-17-99

French bred: 1-7-39

GB bred: 0-2-25

Chance Du Roy’s win last year has been on the only non-Irish bred winner in past 10 years.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 4-11-74

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 6-15-89

There are no very strong trends on the weights, 7 of 10 carried 10-10 or less, while the other 3 carried 11-5 or more.

Top Weight: 541FP155PP (2-1-10)

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-26

Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-7

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 3-7-48

Horses rated 130 to 139: 6-9-78

Horses rated 112 to 127: 1-10-37

5 of last 6 winners were racing off marks between 130 to 139.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days

10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race

7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in at least 13 chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

7 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 8 handicap chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)

7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions were Hello Bud who won it in 2010 & 2012)

6 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls & other was Hello Bud winning it for second time)

8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher

5 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

 

Other Races

Previous season’s winner (Chance Du Roy): 2UP (0-1-3)

Betfair Cash Out Handicap Chase winner (Ballybough Gorta): 4 (0-1-1)

Miller Howe Cavendish Cup Handicap Chase winner (Balbriggan): 4 (0-1-1)

Foundation Developements Ltd Handicap Chase winner (Mendip Express):6 (0-0-1)

Scottish National winner (Al Co): 5F (0-0-2)

4 of 10 winners ran in that year’s Grand National, finishing F5B7

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in previous Becher Chase, finishing 5UF

3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase in December, finishing 042

3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous year’s Troytown, finishing 764

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Handicap Chase, finishing 44

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing P8

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase, finishing 02

3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8P

3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 115

 

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders throughout

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-5-17) has trained the winner three times in the past 10 years and had the runner-up in 4 of the other 7.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-1-9) saddled Hello Bud to win it in 2010 & 2012 and had Baby Run finish 2nd in 2013.

Philip Hobbs (1-0-4) trained Chance Du Roy to win this last year.

Peter Bowen (0-4-15) has saddled 4 places in past 10 years.

Venetia Williams (0-1-2), Tom George (0-1-3), Sue Smith (0-1-4) & David Pipe (0-1-8) have each trained one placed finisher since 2004.

Irish based trainers (3-2-28) have a good recent record, having won it 3 times in last 8 years.

 

Price

The last 7 winners were priced between 7/1 & 14/1

Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 3.50.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 9 or 10

- Irish bred

- Officially rated 130 to 139

- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start

- Has run in the last 45 days

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)

- Run at least 13 times over fences

- Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2)

- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)

- Made racecourse debut in a NH race

- Has run over the National fences (ideally in 2013 Becher or 2014 Grand National)

- Ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, Classic Chase, Troytown and/or Paddy Power Chase

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies

Carl’s Analysis

The trends analysis for this race is very unremarkable, as from 10 trends the lead selection only scored , which does not give much confidence in the criteria.

5 – Balder Success
4 – Somersby, Oscar Whiskey
3 – Dodging Bullets
2- God’s Own, Petite Rose, Vukovar, Williams Wishes
1 – Third Intention

Sad Ken does not point out a clear leader either, so the focus will be on the profiles.

Best in the handicap are Balder Success, Dodging Bullets, Oscar Whiskey, Pepite Rose and Somersby.

Best profiles in order belong to Oscar Whisky, Somersby, Balder Success.

In process of elimination, the only horse that has hit the first four of the primary trends, the pick is SOMERSBY.

I think the best profile horse will be worth a combo tricast, with God’s Own.

HENNESSY GOLD CUP

HENNESSY GOLD CUP

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 29th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In past 10 years, Denman & Bobs Worth have both won this race en route to winning the Cheltenham Gold later in the season.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-2

6yo: 3-9-27

7yo: 5-8-59

8yo: 1-2-24

9yo: 1-5-42

10yo: 0-3-16

11yo+: 0-1-7

6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-86) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-11-91).

Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-11-52

Horses carrying less than 11-0: 3-17-125

Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 9 winners all carrying 11-1 or more, in 2 other years there have only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed.

Top Weight: 91P1313P20 (3-3-10) has gained 3 wins and 3 places in last 8 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 153 or higher: 4-9-39

Horses rated 136 to 152: 6-13-119

Horses rated 126 to 135: 0-3-19

The last 9 winners were officially rated 145 or higher.

Horses rated 160+ have gained 3 wins & 2 places from 12 runners.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run since 1st June

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in previous year’s Hennessy)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed start (2 others posted RPR of 139+)

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 14 times over fences (exception placed in previous renewal)

8 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their chase starts

7 of 10 winners had run in 0 or 1 previous handicap chases

 

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences

9 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a graded chase

6 of 10 winners were second season chasers (other 4 were 3rd or 4th season chasers)

6 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 4 were having first chase start here)

 

Other Races

Previous season’s winner (Triolo D’Alene): 30 (0-1-2)

Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this: 161P22P18 (3-2-9)

IJF 50th Anniversary Novices’ Chase winner (Smad Place):  P110 (2-0-4)

Ryman Stationery Novices’ Chase winner (Sam Winner): 3U24 (0-3-4)

December Novices’ Chase winner (Black Thunder): 2P2 (0-2-3)

Bet365 Gold Cup winner (Hadrian’s Approach): 672 (0-1-3)

Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Just A Par): 350 (0-1-3)

Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): PP (0-0-2)

United House Gold Cup winner (What A Warrior): U6 (0-0-2)

Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 0P (0-0-2)

Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase winner (Many Clouds): 80 (0-0-2)

Coolmation Graduation Chase winner (Hadrian’s Approach): 56 (0-0-2)

4 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P1

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous season’s Feltham, finishing 253

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in IJF 50th Anniversary Novices’ Chase, finishing 11

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in RSA at novices, finishing 14

2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in United House Gold Cup, finishing 63

 

Running Style

9 of 10 winners (last 9) raced in touch or with the leaders throughout

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (3-3-12) saddled the winner in 2005, 2012 & 2013 and a placed finisher in 2006 & 2010.

Paul Nicholls (2-7-24) has won the race 3 times in past 11 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out in 2008.

David Pipe (1-3-10) trained a winner and 3 placed finishers in past 7 years.

Evan Williams (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2006.

Philip Hobbs (0-3-10) last trained the winner in 2001 and trained 2nd & 3rd in 2011.

Emma Lavelle (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Colin Tizzard (0-1-3) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 2 renewals.

 

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter

No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 7 of the last 10 winners.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 2.00.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 6 or 7

– Carrying 11-0+

– Officially rated 145 to 161

– Run in 3 to 14 chases (winning at least 40%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy

– Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M+

– Previously won a graded chase

– Finished in the first 3 last time out

– Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start

– Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 8)

– Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)

– Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA and/or Feltham Chase or

– Third or fourth season chaser that ran in United House Gold Cup last time

– Tends to race prominently

– Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs

 

Carl’s Analysis

Results of the trends are as follows from thirteen.

11 – ANNACOTTY

10 – MANY CLOUDS, SMAD PLACE

9 – BALLYNAGOR, ROCKY CREEK

8 – TRIO D’ALENE, UNIONIST

The only two that have the Sad Ken confirmation from the strictest rules are SMAD PLACE and TRIO D’ ALENE. The form and speed horse, being SMAD PLACE.

The trends point strongly at horses that have run in 3 -14 chases or ran in the previous Hennessy. The two that satisfy both the criteria is ROCKY CREEK and TRIO D’ ALENE. In addition these two fought out the finish in last year’s race.

So who is ready for this MANY CLOUDS had a career best lto and has been raised 7lbs, with decent profile, listed as the second form and speed horse.

SMAD PLACE’s last win at Cheltenham last season was a career best and is also up 7lbs, with a slightly better profile, but did it run to its class is questionable then.

ANNOCOTTY? Won a graded chase in Novice Company, but is he ready for this?

ROCKY CREEK had a run last week and a credible 2nd, with no penalty.

TRIO D’ALENE, no form since the last Hennessy, so a bit of an unknown.

This will definitely be a good race to watch, as always, but what’s my choice of the 19 runners.

Sensibility tells me to split stakes on Rocky Creek, Many Clouds and Smad Place.

To choose 1, will have to be SMAD PLACE.

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