So, we know the Grand National is a bit of a lottery, requires a tremendous amount of luck in running and even the best horse can be brought down, hampered, unseat the rider, simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So, you can look at form, profiling etc but at the end of the day, the trends can be as good a method as any – as they do tend to provide a quick and easy way to shortlist contenders from such a big field and we saw how well it has found the Irish National winner in the past, so does tend to work well in long-distance chases like these.
“Aged 10 years or younger”. Now, all of my 4 shortlisted contenders were over 10 years of age so I had to ignore this trend. The next trend was “Irish bred” – All the other 3 contenders were French-bred apart from one and it's 100/1!
DOUBLE ROSS 100/1 with Betway
paying down to 6 places is well worth an each-way bet.
The Twiston-Davies runner basically ran 4th last time at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir which was a promising run, and is another positive that a few contenders had run at the festival prior to this race. His saddled slipped and the rider lost his irons before pulling up in the 2016 Grand National. He has run ok in the Topham in the past and was 3rd in the 2016 Hennessy behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River so he does have a touch of class, is at the bottom of the weights and is as good an outside bet as any in this very open race.
Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
- 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 – Aged 10 years-old or younger (X)
· 14/27 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out