2000 Guineas trends analysis

EVASIVE THE GUINEAS VALUE

I’ve actually already got a couple of ante-post bets on the 2000 Guineas. I backed Mastercraftsman last year at 16/1 and am also on the Dewhurst runner-up Lord Shanakil at 40/1. I will be performing my ratings analysis obviously and sending that out on Friday evening as well as the LiveBlog on Saturday from 1pm again but I feel it is also worthwhile looking at the trends. I would not have backed Hennessy on Saturday if I had not performed a similar analysis so it is always very worthwhile to do for the big races.

I was amazed at how many people did trends analysis on the Bet365 mile on Saturday but discarded Hennessy based on one slightly dubious statistic. You should never rule one horse out because it fails to meet one trend, you need to rate and rank them depending on how many of the criteria they meet.

Anyway, I digress, back to the 2000 Guineas trends. A lot depends on the draw in a field this size and with 18 runners set to line up a high draw is best.

Despite not knowing the draw there is one horse that is clear of the rest on the trends front and if he gets a high draw then even better. The horse is Sir Michael Stoute’s EVASIVE and at this stage he represents a cracking value each-way bet at 10/1 with William Hill. He is the only horse to fit every single one of the trends below so far and if he gets a favourable high draw then he will have a trends clean sweep. He won the GP3 Horris Hill impressively at 2, showing he handles soft ground but he is likely to be even more effective given firm ground especially as he is from the family of top-milers Kingmambo and Miesque.

Next best on the ratings are the two Aidan O’Brien runners Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle so whichever one of those gets the high draw then that will be marginally favoured over the other. One noticeable fact is how low a trends figure the favourite Delegator has, so he looks to have it all to do. He will have to improve markedly on his Craven form to win the 2000 Guineas as he was fully entitled to win that in the style he did based on his Dewhurst run. Throw in the fact that only George Washington is the only favourite to have scored in the last 10 years and he is verging on a lay.

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EVASIVE – 5pts each-way @ 10/1 with William Hill

1. 12 of the last 20 winners came from between the 2nd and 4th in the betting
2. 17 of the last 20 winners won last time out (only 3 of the last 11 during the current season so extra 1/2pt for last time out winners from last season)
3. 16 of the last 20 winners were priced between 3/1 and 11/1
4. 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut
5. Aidan O’Brien and Sir M Stoute have won 8 of the last 13 renewals
6. 7 out of the last 10 had won at 7f or a mile
7. The lowest winning stall in fields of 18+ runners has been stall 12