Wednesday Review

Wednesday Review/A question of staking/Using ratings for forecast bets

First of all, I will be posting the ratings a little bit later in the mornings and sending the tips email out by 11am. This will enable me to assess non-runners and obtain the best prices about selections.

There was a cracking top-rated winner on Wednesday when Montana Slim scored in the 3:45 at Punchestown at 25/1. I managed to secure odds of 74 on Betfair about Montana Slim in the morning but regret not having posted it the night before as a value selection. The problem is that some of the Irish races are not priced up fully on Betfair (or anywhere else for that matter) the night before, and this can only become clear the next day.

At least I selected it in the Betfinder competition in the morning which I am now leading  going into the final day, fingers crossed I can hang on. I also managed to tip up Landucci there although disappointingly I only awarded it the 1pt each-way here !

I am going to amend the Value staking plan to back only those horses priced at 10/1 or higher that are top-rated also. I will award them a flat 2pt win stake. This has worked well for me in the Betfinder contest and although it means longer losing runs, the returns should be better.

One strategy I also employ, providing there are no odds-on shots in the race is to put on a combination forecast of the top-3 on the ratings. A 1 pound combination straight forecast works out at about 6 quid a pop per race. Today there were 23 qualifying races on the ratings with 5 straight forecasts landed.

In the 6:05 at Punchestown top-rated Notro Pere defeated 2nd top-rated Schindlers Hunt for a SF of 35.62. There was a corker in the 7:50 at Kempton when top-rated Landucci beat 3rd-rated Munich for a SF of 294.76 ! In the 8:50 at Kempton 3rd-rated Buachaill Dona beat 2nd-rated Eisteddfod for a return of 14.18. In the 5:15 the gambled-on 2nd top-rated Timocracy scored from rank-outsider and 3rd-rated Sudden Impulse for a return of 98.62. At Southwell in the 2:30 top-rated Ortega scored from 2nd-top Cannon Fire for a SF of 31.11.

So if you had done all the combinations of the top-3 in races without odds-on shots you would have over 336pts profit. If that outlay is too much, you can always trim it down and use the top-rated as the banker, limiting it to 2 straight forecasts per race for a total outlay of 46 and profit returned of 315pts.

The DailyDouble once again fell on it’s face but I will give it another week or so before deciding on it’s fate as I still feel it has something to offer.

To rub salt into the wounds today, all 5 odds-on lays won…first time that has happened in the month I have been testing it out but again I am sticking with this as I know that it’s a long-term profitable strategy. Read all about the pain on the Results page.

Some of you may not have got the William Hill offer displayed, here it is again below, alternatively click the following link to signup and get the free 25 pound free bet offer.