Thursday ValueBets
Another strike-out yesterday so here is hoping for an improvement today with lots of ValueBets about.
As a reminder to people, this is a long-term strategy and because prices of selections are high, longer losing streaks and lower strike-rates are the norm. It would be fairly easy to pick lots of winners at very short prices and have a much higher strike-rate but profits (if any) would be lower. One of the reasons why I do the LiveBlog’s is to concentrate solely on form and picking winners, this strategy is about highlighting overpriced horses, not necessarily the likeliest winners but those whose odds are overpriced in relation to their respective chances of winning the race.
As we saw earlier in the month, there was around a week without a significant winner and then we hit 2 in one day including a 40/1 shot which put us in a profit so please be patient. If you are finding the number of selections and losing runs unacceptable then concentrate on the 4 highest priced ValueBet selections each-day only and back them each-way.
Alternatively, concentrate on those that are the top-3 or 4 highest rated on the day in their respective races (and not odds-on) and back them in small win and multiple bets.
Ayr350 OBE BRAVE @ 11 (betfred)
Leop800 SUAILCE @ 15 (Victor Chandler)
Leop830 CHOOSE ME @ 11 (bet365)
Leop900 CLOPF @ 17 (Ladbrokes)
Ling400 ALARAZI @ 19 (Sportingbet)
Ling500 LORD THEO @ 11 (Stan James)
Newc700 DAAWEITZA @ 13 (Skybet)
Sand605 DR LIVINGSTONE @ 17 (Ladbrokes)
Yarm410 BABY JOSR @ 17 (Sportingbet)
Yarm510 DRAGON SLAYER @ 11 (Bet365)
Yarm540 VIABLE@ 11 (Hills)
| Race | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Rating | Rank |
| AYR 3-20 | General Feeling (IRE) | D Nicholls 7% | Adrian T Nicholls 6% | 293 | 1 |
| AYR 3-20 | Red Skipper (IRE) | N Wilson 0% | Jamie Moriarty 3% | 292 | 2 |
| AYR 3-20 | Wilmington | Mrs J C McGregor 0% | Patrick Donaghy 9% | 292 | 3 |
| AYR 3-50 | Obe Brave | Lee Smyth 0% | Jamie Moriarty 3% | 370 | 1 |
| AYR 3-50 | Esoterica (IRE) | J S Goldie 10% | Daniel Tudhope 6% | 361 | 2 |
| AYR 3-50 | Sir Royal (USA) | G A Swinbank 7% | P J McDonald 10% | 352 | 3 |
| AYR 4-50 | Coleorton Choice | K A Ryan 5% | Silvestre De Sousa 14% | 370 | 1 |
| AYR 4-50 | Captain Ellis (USA) | K R Burke 24% | Declan Cannon 20% | 364 | 2 |
| AYR 4-50 | Blown It (USA) | I Semple 29% | Patrick Donaghy 9% | 343 | 3 |
| AYR 5-20 | Dispol Grand (IRE) | P T Midgley 7% | Joe Fanning 6% | 306 | 1 |
| AYR 5-20 | Compton Ford | M Dods 11% | Paul Mulrennan 3% | 306 | 2 |
| AYR 5-20 | Fasliyanne (IRE) | K A Ryan 5% | Amy Ryan 20% | 303 | 3 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 8-00 | Suailce (IRE) | D K Weld 12% | P J Smullen 0% | 411 | 1 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 8-00 | Merveilles | Mrs John Harrington 9% | F M Berry 0% | 373 | 2 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 8-00 | Donegal (USA) | Robert Alan Hennessy 0% | D P McDonogh 0% | 342 | 3 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 8-30 | Choose Me (IRE) | Kevin Prendergast 13% | D P McDonogh 0% | 379 | 1 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 8-30 | Toraidhe (IRE) | J S Bolger 20% | K J Manning 0% | 373 | 2 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 8-30 | Johann Zoffany | A P O’Brien 26% | J P O’Brien 0% | 357 | 3 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 9-00 | Clopf (IRE) | Andrew Heffernan 0% | W M Lordan 0% | 394 | 1 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 9-00 | South Wing (IRE) | Eoin Griffin 0% | J Murtagh 0% | 376 | 2 |
| LEOPARDSTOWN 9-00 | Sarteano (FR) | D T Hughes 0% | N G McCullagh 0% | 360 | 3 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-00 | Vintage (IRE) | J Akehurst 0% | Ian Mongan 6% | 386 | 1 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-00 | Dvinsky (USA) | P Howling 14% | Stephen Donohoe 11% | 385 | 2 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-00 | Whiskey Junction | M Quinn 0% | L P Keniry 9% | 383 | 3 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-00 | Silaah | E A L Dunlop 4% | R Hills 19% | 383 | 3 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-30 | Almaty Express | J R Weymes 0% | Robert Winston 10% | 374 | 1 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-30 | Lochstar | A M Balding 15% | William Buick 15% | 369 | 2 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 3-30 | Fromsong (IRE) | D K Ivory 0% | Stephen Carson 0% | 369 | 3 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 4-00 | Alarazi (IRE) | T G Mills 22% | Alan Munro 13% | 369 | 1 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 4-00 | Fairmile | Ian Williams 23% | Stephen Donohoe 11% | 325 | 2 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 4-00 | Zaham (USA) | M Johnston 10% | Ryan Moore 21% | 300 | 3 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 4-30 | Royal Executioner (USA) | D M Simcock 25% | Stephen Donohoe 11% | 379 | 1 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 4-30 | Woolston Ferry (IRE) | David Pinder 0% | Fergus Sweeney 10% | 368 | 2 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 4-30 | Officer In Command (USA) | J S Moore 7% | Luke Morris 4% | 364 | 3 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 5-00 | Lord Theo | N P Littmoden 0% | Luke Morris 4% | 341 | 1 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 5-00 | Sew’N'So Character (IRE) | M Blanshard 0% | L P Keniry 9% | 331 | 2 |
| LINGFIELD (A.W) 5-00 | Teen Ager (FR) | P Burgoyne 0% | Stephen Carson 0% | 323 | 3 |
| NEWCASTLE 7-00 | Daaweitza | B Ellison 14% | Lance Betts 15% | 379 | 1 |
| NEWCASTLE 7-00 | Toto Skyllachy | T P Tate 12% | Micky Fenton 23% | 377 | 2 |
| NEWCASTLE 7-00 | Stonecrabstomorrow (IRE) | R A Fahey 20% | B McHugh 0% | 370 | 3 |
| NEWCASTLE 8-40 | Osteopathic Remedy (IRE) | M Dods 11% | Phillip Makin 11% | 404 | 1 |
| NEWCASTLE 8-40 | Solar Spirit (IRE) | J J Quinn 14% | Graham Gibbons 9% | 401 | 2 |
| NEWCASTLE 8-40 | Baby Strange | D Shaw 0% | Martin Lane 19% | 401 | 3 |
| NEWCASTLE 9-15 | Tarzan (IRE) | M Johnston 10% | Greg Fairley 11% | 372 | 1 |
| NEWCASTLE 9-15 | Silver Games (IRE) | M R Channon 3% | Edward Creighton 11% | 370 | 2 |
| NEWCASTLE 9-15 | Dr Jameson (IRE) | R A Fahey 20% | Tony Hamilton 10% | 367 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 6-05 | Dr Livingstone (IRE) | C R Egerton 0% | Steve Drowne 16% | 394 | 1 |
| SANDOWN 6-05 | Moves Goodenough | Andrew Turnell 0% | Pat Dobbs 4% | 389 | 2 |
| SANDOWN 6-05 | Saltagioo (ITY) | M Botti 12% | Andrea Atzeni 15% | 388 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 6-35 | Monsieur Chevalier (IRE) | R Hannon 20% | Richard Hughes 23% | 315 | 1 |
| SANDOWN 6-35 | Star Rover (IRE) | P D Evans 14% | John Egan 14% | 301 | 2 |
| SANDOWN 6-35 | Fratellino | A J McCabe 15% | Robert Winston 10% | 284 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 7-10 | Patkai (IRE) | Sir Michael Stoute 31% | Ryan Moore 21% | 465 | 1 |
| SANDOWN 7-10 | Tastahil (IRE) | B W Hills 12% | R Hills 19% | 460 | 2 |
| SANDOWN 7-10 | Geordieland (FR) | J A Osborne 25% | Shane Kelly 3% | 459 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 7-45 | Conduit (IRE) | Sir Michael Stoute 31% | Ryan Moore 21% | 500 | 1 |
| SANDOWN 7-45 | Campanologist (USA) | Saeed Bin Suroor 13% | Ted Durcan 5% | 479 | 2 |
| SANDOWN 7-45 | Pipedreamer | J H M Gosden 22% | Jimmy Fortune 12% | 477 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 7-45 | Stotsfold | W R Swinburn 9% | Adam Kirby 9% | 477 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 8-20 | Ashram (IRE) | Saeed Bin Suroor 13% | Ted Durcan 5% | 449 | 1 |
| SANDOWN 8-20 | Border Patrol | R Charlton 21% | Steve Drowne 16% | 429 | 2 |
| SANDOWN 8-20 | Spring Of Fame (USA) | Saeed Bin Suroor 13% | Ahmed Ajtebi 13% | 416 | 3 |
| SANDOWN 8-50 | Cadre (IRE) | J H M Gosden 22% | Jimmy Fortune 12% | 420 | 1 |
| SANDOWN 8-50 | The Fifth Member (IRE) | J R Boyle 0% | Pat Cosgrave 7% | 419 | 2 |
| SANDOWN 8-50 | Light From Mars | B R Millman 5% | James Millman 7% | 418 | 3 |
| WETHERBY 5-45 | Quivvy Bridge (IRE) | J J Lambe 9% | A P McCoy 20% | 450 | 1 |
| WETHERBY 5-45 | Alflora Dora | A King 9% | Robert Thornton 7% | 417 | 2 |
| WETHERBY 5-45 | Ambrose Princess (IRE) | M J Scudamore 33% | Tom Scudamore 6% | 406 | 3 |
| WETHERBY 6-15 | Easby Mandarin | C W Thornton 0% | T J O’Brien 14% | 432 | 1 |
| WETHERBY 6-15 | Ngong Hills (FR) | C Grant 18% | Richard McGrath 8% | 422 | 2 |
| WETHERBY 6-15 | Euro American (GER) | G M Moore 14% | Barry Keniry 15% | 414 | 3 |
| WETHERBY 6-50 | Hunting Tower | J J Lambe 9% | A P McCoy 20% | 419 | 1 |
| WETHERBY 6-50 | Sydney Sling (IRE) | Evan Williams 14% | Paul Moloney 8% | 407 | 2 |
| WETHERBY 6-50 | Aviation | G M Moore 14% | R P McLernon 0% | 395 | 3 |
| WETHERBY 7-25 | Mizen Raven (IRE) | Tim Vaughan 17% | Richard Johnson 19% | 497 | 1 |
| WETHERBY 7-25 | Badger | C T Pogson 0% | Adam Pogson 0% | 397 | 2 |
| WETHERBY 7-25 | Island Key (IRE) | G M Moore 14% | Barry Keniry 15% | 360 | 3 |
| WETHERBY 7-55 | Scale Bank (IRE) | G A Swinbank 7% | Brian Hughes 5% | 453 | 1 |
| WETHERBY 7-55 | Will If I Want (IRE) | L Corcoran 0% | Timmy Murphy 33% | 452 | 2 |
| WETHERBY 7-55 | Prince Of Gdansk (IRE) | Evan Williams 14% | Paul Moloney 8% | 400 | 3 |
| WETHERBY 9-05 | The Snail | Evan Williams 14% | Paul Moloney 8% | 403 | 1 |
| WETHERBY 9-05 | Kilcannon Supreme (IRE) | P Bowen 9% | Mr D F Devereux 0% | 392 | 2 |
| WETHERBY 9-05 | Creagh Bay (IRE) | Evan Williams 14% | Christian Williams 11% | 380 | 3 |
| YARMOUTH 2-10 | King Of Axum (IRE) | M Johnston 10% | J-P Guillambert 6% | 222 | 1 |
| YARMOUTH 2-10 | Niran (IRE) | C E Brittain 22% | Seb Sanders 19% | 192 | 2 |
| YARMOUTH 2-10 | Brisbane (IRE) | J H M Gosden 22% | Richard Mullen 6% | 162 | 3 |
| YARMOUTH 4-10 | Baby Josr | I A Wood 0% | George Baker 4% | 294 | 1 |
| YARMOUTH 4-10 | Dancing Wave | M C Chapman 0% | Lee Vickers 0% | 290 | 2 |
| YARMOUTH 4-10 | Itsher | S C Williams 7% | Saleem Golam 0% | 287 | 3 |
| YARMOUTH 4-40 | Desperate Dan | A B Haynes 33% | T P Queally 20% | 345 | 1 |
| YARMOUTH 4-40 | Dickie Le Davoir | John A Harris 0% | Mark Coumbe 0% | 332 | 2 |
| YARMOUTH 4-40 | Thoughtsofstardom | P S McEntee 0% | Toby Atkinson 0% | 330 | 3 |
| YARMOUTH 5-10 | Dragon Slayer (IRE) | John A Harris 0% | Mark Coumbe 0% | 330 | 1 |
| YARMOUTH 5-10 | Lady Sorcerer | A P Jarvis 9% | Richard Mullen 6% | 324 | 2 |
| YARMOUTH 5-10 | Rising Force (IRE) | J L Spearing 17% | Jack Dean 15% | 322 | 3 |
| YARMOUTH 5-40 | Viable | Mrs P Sly 0% | Jerry O’Dwyer 7% | 328 | 1 |
| YARMOUTH 5-40 | Mystic Art (IRE) | C R Egerton 0% | Richard Rowe 13% | 308 | 2 |
| YARMOUTH 5-40 | Cwm Rhondda (USA) | P W Chapple-Hyam 38% | Jack Mitchell 11% | 303 | 3 |
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