Epsom Stats Analysis

Here is my stats analysis for the 4 races that interest me from a trends perspective at Epsom on Friday and Saturday along with current best prices on the shortlisted runners. Note that trends analysis should be combined with form analysis but there are a couple that are overpriced from the analysis, in particular MAC LOVE in the Diomed (cover on CONFRONT) and the in-form David Nicholls’ runner INDIAN TRAIL in the Dash which are worthy of each-way support.

It’s also comforting to note that SEA THE STARS and FAME AND GLORY that I recommended for the Derby at 16/1 and 9/1 respectively early last month are clear ranked 1st and 2nd while MIDDAY holds claims in the Oaks but it’s not so clear-cut there.

Diomed Trends (Friday 1:05)

CONFRONT 6/4 & MAC LOVE 14/1

1. 10/33 Course Winners
2. 15/20 First 3 LTO
3. 17/20 Won at least once in their last 5 starts
4. 6/20 Priced between 12/1 and 25/1
5. 7/38 Raced in a handicap LTO
6. 16/20 Up in class from last run
7. 10/11 Last run within 2 months

Oaks Trends (Friday 4:05)

MIDDAY 4/1

1. 8/22 Winning Favourites
2. 16/20 Top 4 in betting
3. 6/37 Raced over 1 mile LTO
4. 5/14 Henry Cecil trained
5. 5/28 Raced at Lingfield LTO
6. 7/20 US Bred runners
7. 8/11 Won last time out

Dash Trends (Saturday 3:00)

INDIAN TRAIL 14/1

1. 8/10 Drawn 8 or higher
2. 8/10 Aged 5 or older
3. 10/10 At least 3 wins
4. 5/10 Placed at Epsom
5. 11 raced within the last month
6. 10/10 Top 3 finish this season
7. 7/8 Last run at a Northern track
8. David Nicholls 4 wins

Derby Trends (Saturday 3:45)

SEA THE STARS 3/1

1. 13/20 Top 3 of the betting
2. 19/20 Priced 14/1 or less
3. 15/20 First LTO
4. 12/20 3 or more wins
5. 6/24 Won at York LTO
6. 5/6 Had just one prep race
7. 7/10 Had won over at least a mile at 2