June 23, 2009 in Ratings by Dave

Victoria to land Plate @ 14/1

Record Breaker was nowhere near VICTORIA MONTOYA (non-runner) (pictured) back at Newmarket in May and Andrew Balding’s filly pulled away to win going away by 4 lengths. That was all the more meritable a performance by the winner as it was her first run of the season whereas Record Breaker had already had a few races. Record Breaker is only 2lb better off with Victoria Montoya on that run so I take her to confirm the form in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday.

She was done for toe last time in a slowly run race at Sandown but looks a value bet at 141 as the test of stamina required should be right up her street on Saturday.

The likely presence of the talented William Buick can only be a major plus. She also had Judgethemoment 10 lengths back when scoring at Sandown last July and that rival is only 1lb better off on Saturday yet much shorter in the betting so I’ll advise a bet on her at the moment and pray for a low draw as 10 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower.

The 2nd one I really like is Walter Swinburn’s unexposed stayer HENDERSYDE who ran well after a 202 day abscence (and a gelding operation) to score over an inadequate 12f at Kempton back in April showing a decent turn of foot in the process. Given only one race since, he won really well over 14f at Newmarket and is going to be targeted at races like the Ebor and the Cesarewitch. Proven over the distance and on the ground this lightly raced stayer is likely to go very close.

Tilt was 3rd in this in heavy ground last season and ran well last time in a hot 2-miler at Haydock last time with Record Breaker just behind and Bollin Felix just ahead. Both Tilt and Bollin Felix have shown there best form with cut so unless the rain comes they are skipped over as is Kayf Aramis who looked like he had enough for the time being at Ascot and is another for whom really fast ground might be a concern. If the rains come, these few will come right into the mix but for me the value lies with these two who also fit quite a few of the stats for the race.

NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE – NEWCASTLE – SATURDAY

HENDERSYDE – 5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

VICTORIA MONTOYA – 10pts e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)