Michael Bell Trainer Analysis

One thing I like to do is pick a trainer each year, analyse their statistics and follow their runners/news etc throughout the season. The trainer I have plumped for is Michael Bell. I wish I had done it before Royal Ascot given the strength of some of his comments in the Stable Tour, but there you go.

The reasons for choosing Bell are several, he always has his horses spot on for the big occasion, he has recently added the Oaks via Sariska to his Derby winner Motivator. He has the booking of former Champion jockey Jamie Spencer and he also has an excellent website keeping people regularly up to date with his latest stable news, targets etc.

With Hayley Turner riding out regularly you know his horses are going to be spot on for their races and you also get a few bits of inside info from the likes of Emma Spencer occasionally He is also coming off the back of his highest number of winners last season so is clearly peaking.

So let’s take a look at some of his stats in more detail and his runners to see if we can get a few pointers. The stats are taken from Raceform Interactive over the last 10 years and put into excel intp Pivot Tables to analyse for clues. I have broken it down to 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and the total ‘Place’ ie. all 3.

What I tend to do is refer to the tables whenever he might have a runner to assess it’s chances of winning or indeed those to avoid ! If anyone wants any other stats looking at just let me know by posting under this post in the forum and I’ll check them out. Let’s start off with SEX…oo-err missus !

Sex Summary – Despite his recent win with Sariska in the Oaks and a still respectable 12.9% win strike-rate with fillies, he clearly does better with the male of the species. Notably his horses and colts perform a lot better than his gelding’s do, although they do have a decent place strike-rate.

Overall though 44.7% of his colts and 41.8% of his horses place in the first 3 so they would appear to be the ones worth paying particular attention to.

Age Summary – Age wise, he doesn’t keep many 6yo’s in training but those he does should clearly be noted as they have the best win and place strike-rate at an overall 43.9%. Following that his 3yo’s do amazingly well considering they are from a very large sample size at 36.5% but 4yo’s have marginally the better overall place strike-rate with 41.1%. His 5yo’s perform particularly poorly while his record with 2yo’s is not as great as the other age groups, although still highly credible. Anything over the age of 6 he struggles with.

Sire Summary – The top-3 sires on the overall first-3 places are from relatively few runners but Lucky Story, Exceed and Excel and Pennekamp are clearly worth noting. However, from bigger sample sizes I like Mind Games, Revoque and Invincible Spirit with 60% of those by that sire getting into the first 3 places. His classic winners Sariska (Montjeu) and Motivator (Pivotal) along with Intikham (Red Evie) are also worth paying attention to. Interesting though that 25% of his winners and 50% of his win & placed runners come from this list of sires.

Odds Summary – Well this will be pretty obvious. 57% of his odds-on shots win. His strike-rate with 11/2 shots and higher is pretty low by comparison to others. I would advise a cutoff point of 7/1 when feeling confident about his runners but you can definitely pretty much ignore his rank outsiders.

Penalty Summary – Bell does particularly well when his winners reappear with a 6lb penalty. Almost 80% of them place with 52%+ of them winning so if you are getting evens or better about one of his runners appearing with a penalty then you are probably getting decent value for it to follow up.

Month Summary – Bell doesn’t have too many runners in January and February but around half of his runners in these months place in the first 3. March and July are next best overall. His strike-rates really tail off at the end of the year and October-December are pretty average by his early/mid season standards.

Jockey Summary – Main jockey Jamie Spencer may take a bit of stick but consider how many rides he has had, a win/place strike-rate of close to 50% is nothing to be sniffed at. The jockeys above him achieved slightly higher strike-rates from fewer runners. Tom Queally picks up the occasional good ride and has a good win s/r and he also does well with apprentices.

Distance Summary – The most interesting table for me. For the last few years I thought that Michael Bell did well with his milers and middle distance runners but he actually seems to do best at both ends of the spectrum in terms of stayers and sprinters but his overall win&place strike-rate with 11 and 12f horses is still 40%+

Course Summary – Saved the best till last. I think the course plays a key part in a trainers stats. For example you would assume his record at his local track at Newmarket would be pretty good but only 9.5% winners on the July course and 6.2% on the Rowley course is hardly inspiring. He does though have very good strike-rates when visiting Musselburgh and Hamilton. His best tracks in terms of win strike-rates though are Catterick, Redcar, Brighton, Newcastle and the all-weather at Southwell.

OVERALL SUMMARY

The ideal Michael Bell runner would fit at least most of these criteria although it’s never likely to happen that all will be met but does give a simple checklist -:

Sex – Colt/Horse

Age – 3, 4 or 6

Sire – Lucky Story, Pennekamp, Exceed and Excel, Montjeu, Pivotal, Intikhab

Odds – < 7/1

Month – Jan/Feb/Mar or Jul/Aug/Sep

Jockey – Spencer/Dettori/Queally/Good apprentice

Distance – 5f or 1m 3f+ (especially 1m 5f+ stayers)

Courses – Hamilton, Musselburgh, Chester, Bath, Catterick, Redcar, Brighton, Newcastle, Southwell

Penalty a bonus

STABLE TOUR

Here are the recent notes from his stable tour in May I believe….can’t believe how positive he was about Sariska and his Royal Ascot runners !

Older horses

ALLIED POWERS

4 b c Invincible Spirit – Always Friendly.

Capable middle distance handicapper, off career high winning mark when beating Lady Jane Digby four and a half lengths in 12 furlong handicap at Hamilton May 15. Up to group three latest start and although eleventh of 12 to Cima De Triomphe at Sandown May 28 was beaten under five lengths.

“The ideal scenario is a mile and a half on soft ground and a mile and a quarter on very soft. He’s better switched off in a race but from a bad draw on quick ground at Sandown last time we didn’t have a choice. He’s proved that he’s up to group class, especially if we took him abroad. There’s nothing at Ascot because of the fast ground which he can’t handle. Not easy to place with his listed penalty.”

ESPY

4 b g Piccolo – Running Glimpse.

Looked useful in five furlong handicaps winning twice of 71 and 77 in May 2008. Struggled off 81 and back to 74 after failing to fire over six furlongs.

” The problem is that he banged his head and broke his nose when he had been in the stalls a long time at Newbury last year. It took time for him to get over that and right now he’s looking and moving as well as he’s ever done. He runs back over five at Leicester on May 26, it’s back to basics and I hope it works out – handles any ground.”

FOOLIN MYSELF

4 b c Montjeu – Friendlier.

Lightly raced but plenty of potential and got the better of Tartan Bearer when they met in a backend seven furlong maiden at Newmarket in November. Second to Invasion on handicap debut at Newbury off 85 over ten furlongs April 18 and under eight lengths in arrears of Confront when ninth in nine furlong handicap at Newmarket May 2. Stays on that exploitable mark of 86.

“I think he’s potentially a well-handicapped horse with a progressive profile. He’ll be fine over nine or ten furlongs but wouldn’t want it too firm. If the ground is reasonable he’ll go to Epsom on June 5 with a very live chance.”

THE BETCHWORTH KID

4 b g Tobougg – Runelia.

Useful staying performer whose last win came off 90 in a 15 furlong handicap at Doncaster in September. Beaten in listed class since including four this season, latest over 14 furlongs at Leopardstown May 28 when three lengths fifth of seven to Hindu Kush off 102. Now 100.

“We’re pointing him at the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, and even though he’s been dropped to 100 it will be a tall order and he would only run if the ground was good or softer, a much better horse with cut in the ground. He’ll stay alright but the key is ground.”

MEZZANISI

4 b g Kalanisi – Mezzanine.

Consistent last season in middle distance handicaps and produced good second to much improved Hatton Flight off 83 at Epsom in April. Up to 85 and beaten Wind Flow at Wolverhampton next time and now 90.

“Timeform have him with a squiggle which I have phoned to complain about after his last win. I think it’s crazy because the last nine runs he hasn’t been out of the first three. I wanted to run him at Epsom on Derby day but the ground will be too quick so he’s being aimed at the Lanark Bell at Hamilton on June 10. With the right ground there’s a decent prize in him.”

MOYENNE CORNICHE

4 ch c Selkirk – Miss Corniche.

Only one win from eight starts an that came on second appearance and first as a three-year-old beating French Art four lengths at Newmarket. In at 93 and climbed without success but good efforts such as penultimate outing last season when nose second to Spacious saw him go up again from 105 to 109 off which he was well beaten final start and now 107. Yet to race for present yard.

“Trained by Geoff Wragg before he came to us and hasn’t run yet because every time we’ve entered the ground’s been too quick. The few days this year when he’s worked on soft ground he’s been a different horse. Optimum conditions are a mile on soft ground. He’s in the Diomed at Epsom on June 5 but it depends on the ground.”

REDFORD

4 b g Bahri – Ida Lupino.

Decent winner at two and three from seven furlongs to a mile. Rated 87 for first handicap win and won off 93. Fair efforts since and started this season off 102 but well beaten sole start 2009 when eight and a half lengths fourth of seven to Royal Rock at Haydock May 9 and now 99.

“It seems all my older horses need soft ground so if the weather forecast is correct they aren’t going to have a very good season. This one is a soft ground performer and with those conditions he’s definitely decent. If the ground were ok I’d like to run him in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Ascot. Seven furlongs is definitely the preferred trip.”

Three-year-olds

ADVISOR

Gr c Anabaa – Armalinia.

Won second start this year beating Barbarian a length in mile maiden at Windsor rated 74 and not disgraced next outing when just over three lengths sixth of 10 to Forte Dei Marmi off 78 at Goodwood May 20.

“Didn’t have enough use made of him last time and I am keen to go a mile and a quarter with him although I haven’t got a specific target. I think there is plenty of room to manoeuvre off this mark.”

ART CONNOISSEUR

B c Lucky Story – Withorwithoutyou.

Won first three juvenile starts including Coventry at Royal Ascot. Didn’t fire sole start this season but pulled too hard and then got short of room latest start off 116 in listed handicap at Newmarket, first try at seven furlongs.

“His target is the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot but recently he popped a splint so he’s been swimming and returns to the yard on June 2 and it’s got to be 50-50 that we get him to Ascot but I would only let him go if I thought he’d run very, very well. He’s one that wants fast ground and we are very keen to run him at Ascot because he likes the track and surface there.”

BIN END

B c King’s Best – Overboard.

One run at two and going the right way in four outings this season, winning Leicester maiden and putting up solid placed efforts. Has risen two pounds from 83 after finishing under three lengths second of eight to Brunston first try at 11 furlongs at Goodwood May 21.

“Shouldn’t have run him on quick ground last time and he’s been a bit stiff since. He’ll be fine and is a progressive staying handicapper over a mile and a half plus off a mark that is definitely ok to move from.”

BRAE HILL

B g Fath – Auriga.

Won second start over five at two but without a win since and has dropped from 94 to 87 after seasonal debut when under ten lengths seven of eight to Shamrawi Lodge in six furlong handicap at Newmarket May 15.

“Was going to run at Doncaster on June 6 but has been off his grub recently so will go for the Britannia at Royal Ascot and he might just scrape in off 87. The mile seems ok although his pedigree has bits of everything but he’ll handle any ground.”

BAHAMIAN BABE

Ch f Bahamian Bounty – Baby Bunting.

Won first three last season but was found wanting after that. Despite lack of size has done ok both runs this season and just over four lengths tenth of 14 to Ishetoo in valuable five furlong handicap at York May 30 off 89 – has been 94.

“She’s a small filly that likes fast ground and her fate likes with the handicapper which is where she’s going and needs to drop.”

FOUR WINDS

B c Red Ransom – Fairy Godmother.

Winner over a mile at two and rated 91. Progressive both runs this season, winning latest by two lengths from Patrician’s Glory over a mile at Newmarket May 14 off 100. Now 101 and has been tried over 10 furlongs when length and a half second to High Heeled penultimate start.

“Goes for the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot – his whole campaign has been geared around it to avoid a penalty. The race he won last time was the only conditions race he could go in and not get penalised. His ideal trip rests between a mile and a mile and a quarter, flexible because he stays and has the boot for a mile. He’s on the up and goes on faster ground.”

LADY ARTISIMA

B f Montjeu – Crimson Glory.

Unraced at two and ability latest two starts off three this season, second on both and latest when five lengths second of ten to Charity Belle over ten furlongs at Newcastle May 28. Awaiting a mark.

“Probably hasn’t let herself down the last twice she’s run on faster ground. She looks in great order and I’m waiting to see her mark before deciding on a maiden or a handicap. She’ll get a mile and a half, maybe further, but not on firm again.”

LOCHAN MOR

B c Kyllachy – Bright Moll.

Unraced at two and improved on debut second to Strictly over six furlongs at Doncaster May 16 when beating Quasi Congaree a length and three quarters same trip at Yarmouth May 29. Awaiting mark.

“She was second to Strictly who is now rated 80 and we were giving her ten pounds. I’m waiting on the handicapper but five or six furlongs is fine and although he handles faster ground he’ll be much better on soft.”

MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE

B f Pivotal – Sabreon.

Ability when placed all three starts last year and good efforts at listed level last two starts, winning most recent when beating Fallen In Love a length and a half in ten furlong listed event at Goodwood May 21. Has risen from 93 to 96.

“She heads for the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, dropping back to a mile. The handicapper has left her on 96 which we think is a kind call which we hope to exploit. She goes on all ground bar very soft. Has done really well.”

STEEL FREE

B f Danehill Dancer – Candelabra.

Unraced at two but plenty of ability. Second on debut in unraced fillies race at Newbury then three lengths third of nine to Zero Money when odds on at Leicester May 19, dropping back a furlong to six.

“It was probably an error to drop her back to six furlongs but she is another that wants soft ground. Had a dirty nose which stopped her running at Haydock on May 29 so she’s being freshened up for a week.”

PIQUANTE

B f Selkirk – China.

Ability on three starts, two this year and rated 70 after latest when ten lengths sixth of 13 to Starwberrydaiquiri, dropping back from ten furlongs to a mile at Windsor May 18.

“She’s going back to a mile and a quarter because I think she’s been given a very reasonable mark and I will be very disappointed if we can’t exploit that. I think she wants a Trip the jockeys say she doesn’t but I’m overruling them.”

SARISKA

B f Pivotal – Maycocks Bay.

Top class filly, won debut last season impressively over seven furlongs at Newmarket. Not so effective over same trip on reappearance when four and a half lengths fourth to Lahaleeb in group three at Newbury. Bred to appreciate further and showed it when easily beating Ruby Star three and three quarter lengths in ten furlong group three at York May 13. Move from 99 to 115 academic and an outstanding claim to Oaks on June 5.

“Neither of my two previous Oaks runners have covered themselves in glory but I’ve made no secret from very early on of the high regard in which I hold this filly. She’s peaking at the right time and the only problem we had was when she got frightened and fell recently. Could have been nasty but we got away with it and she’s never missed a day’s exercise all spring. She was just too inexperienced when she went to Newbury first time this season, half asleep in the race, and when she got going she was hampered. As she proved in the Musidora she has stamina in spades with a turn of pace and I think she will improve for going up from ten to 12 furlongs. Of this type of middle distance filly she is far and away the best I’ve ever had.”

FARMER GILES

B c Danroad – Demeter.

Placed last two of three starts over five, beaten a nose by King’s Approach on second at Leicester April 25 and three and a half lengths third of nine to Whozthecat at Redcar May 11.

“The draw beat him at Leicester because he was on the outside with nothing to race with. He was disappointing at Redcar but the winner might be very good and I think the journey took a lot out of him. Very genuine and I still like him and have given him a short break. He’ll go six next time which will suit him.”

Two-year-olds

SOUL HEAVEN

B c Oratorio – Pilgrim Spirit.

Improved on debut fourth to Antonius Moris when beating Cool Valentine by a length and three quarters at Lingfield May 27, again over six furlongs.

“I’m going to wait for nurseries because I think he should get a fair mark and he is going to get better.”

BABY CAKES

B f Marju – Dark Rosaleen.

Unraced.

“Nice filly that goes well and could take up some entries over the weekend of June 6.”

PASTEL BLUE

B f Shamardal – Painted Moon.

Unraced.

“Ready to run, quick but not a superstar.”

PROMPTER

B c Motivator – Penny Cross.

Unraced.

“Done some very nice work and won’t be long in running over seven. We had been trying to get him ready for the Chesham – as we did with his sire which also didn’t work out – and we’ll miss that again.

SYRIAN

B c Hawk Wing – Lady Lahar.

Unraced.

“Strong and impressive looking and will be out soon over six or seven.”