Monday FormBet Ratings
Not too bad a Sunday on the dutching front with 12 of the 25 races producing the winner from the front-2 on the ratings. I’ve added in the last 3 runs form figures onto the ratings (most recent run on right) ie. 3-6-1 indicates the horse ran 1st last time out, 6th before that and 3rd 3 outings ago.
A quick explanation of the colour coding on the ratings. When the horse is green it indicates top-rated, yellow is 2nd-top, orange 3rd best on the ratings. This is also indicated by the colour coding of the ‘Rank’ which should highlight the top-3 easily on the ratings.
Now for the complicated bit. If I were to incorporate trainer and jockey form into the ratings then I’’ve highlighted which horse would be top-rated by highlighting the trainer in green, yellow or orange. The reason why I don’t incorporate this into the overall rating figure is because a) it’s early days testing it and b) a trainer can have 1 winner from 1 runner in the last 14 days so have a strike rate of 100% but this could skew the ratings as the strike-rate is based on too small a sample size. A good example is Monte Pattino in the 2:45 at Musselburgh today who is actually last on he ratings but if you include the 100% trainer strike-rate (1/1) along with Lance Betts 13% strike-rate then he would be top-rated.
I am monitoring these to see if it is worth incorporating these into the overall ratings but at the moment it’s too early to say.
The Rat figure is ultimately the indicator of how strong a selection is and how far clear of the 2nd it is is indicative of a strong bet. For example yesterday in the 3:00 at Brighton My Learned Friend was rated 100, the next best was Choreography who was 18pts behind on 82. Similarly in the 3:55 at Limerick winner Quintana on 100 was way ahead of the 2nd Mahrajaan on 54. This is a general guide as to the strength of a selection or also can indicate a race’s competitiveness if horses are within a few pts of each other.
Something else I am looking into is incorporating into the ratings is the horses best performance over today’s conditions (course, going, distance etc) in terms of RPR and SPD figures from Raceform Interactive. If these were included in the ratings figure these are noted by highlighting the Rat figure in green, yellow or orange.
The upshot is that I am monitoring these over the month of July and if it proves to be a reliable method to incorporate either the trainer/jockey form or/and the performance figure over the race conditions then they will be included in the rating figure.
Obviously at the moment the strongest selections will be those where the horse, trainer and Rat figure are all highlighted in green or 2 greens and a yellow etc and as an additional bonus if it is rated clear of the 2nd.
There are quite a few that fit the bill today but perhaps the strongest selection looks to be AMETHYST DAWN in the 7:50 at Ripon for Tim Easterby (pictured). He has begun to hit a bit of form of late and this one looks to have everything in her favour to break the losing streak and at odds of around 12/1 is well worth a 10pt win/20pt place bet.
Others that come close to meeting all the criteria that may be particularly good dutching races with the 2nd on the ratings are –:
Brigh 2:30 MISS FIREFLY
Muss 3:45 HOTHAM
Wind 6:00 GOLDEN DIXIE
Ross 6:40 MOIQUEN
Ross 7:10 THE TARTAN ARMY
Ross 7:50 RATHROCKSCOURT
Ripon 8:50 MONTIBOLI
About This Post
