July 8, 2009 in Ratings by Dave

Rain to take a bow

Most of the weather websites I have looked at are forecasting light rain overnight and heavy rain around Newmarket in the morning and during racing so I expect the going to change a fair bit if that rain does indeed arrive. The clerk of the course has stated the going stick reads about 7.4 but I expect that to change in the morning so will be watching ATR and RacingUK with interest. I’ll be doing a fair bit of dutching on Wednesday in the handicaps and have shortlisted the ones I like for the TV races which again come under the Bet365 4/1+ FREE bet offer.

Newmarket 1:30

The action kicks off with a juicy 16-runner handicap over the specialist 7f trip at 1:30. Mo Mhuirnin is 2/3 over this trip and beat her elders last time. However, she is 10lb higher since that run and this is a big step up in class. Lots of people like to go for light-weighted runners in handicaps like this when generally speaking those at the head of the weights (top-weight apart) generally hold sway.

Having said that Stoute won this with Peeress and Heaven Sent in the past so his runner Resort is interesting off a mark of 83.

GOOD AGAIN tops the ratings and this race could be run to suit. The drop back to 7f is not a problem after a decent run in the Sandringham as there should be plenty of pace on here and I can see her pouncing late, she has a decent turn of foot which will come in handy here although significant rain could be a worry.

Another eyecatcher in the Sandringham was FIRST CITY who I have been waiting for since then. She won her maiden last year on heavy ground then ran 3rd to Fantasia in the Nell Gwynn. She finished down the field in a GP2 in France before finding the ground too lively and not getting a clear run when a not disgraced 5th in the Sandringham. Simcock (pictured) is flying at the moment and has stated that 7f with a bit of juice is the optimum for this filly so at 16/1 she rates excellent win and place value despite being lowly rated as if the rain comes she will run a big race.

NEVER LOSE is the other I like here. She was outpaced but not disgraced in a 5f listed contest behind Triple Aspect a few weeks ago. she had earlier shown a liking for this trip and going when scoring at Newbury in May and could have a decent stall pitch in 16 if Callan can take advantage of the rail.

Cumana Bay’s win at Newbury was a modest event and she won a slow-run, small-field handicap here last time over a mile but she is 2nd on the ratings and may be worth a cover bet but Barry Hills Photographic is a bigger danger if her last run can be ignored while Balaagha is also a threat in a wide-open handicap.

GOOD AGAIN – FIRST CITY – NEVER LOSE

Newmarket 2:00

The 6f sprint and (as you can see from the diagram below) in recent big-field renewals over this trip a high draw is pretty much essential although crucially on the few occasions there has been good to soft ground low numbers have managed to win.

I think it’s best to pick one good one drawn low and the two best-rated drawn high.

DAMIEN has to go in, drawn 2 for the Hills team, he can take advantage of the rail and there is enough pace low for them to not be completely inconvenienced. Was 3rd in a listed contest at Haydock last time and any rain will be a big bonus and 20’s on Betfair looks huge.

Of those drawn high Ryan Moore’s mount SHAMWARI LODGE at around the 8/1 mark has to be shortlisted from stall 18, you may notice from the diagram above that Moore (pictured) won the last 2 big field handicaps here from high draws so he clearly knows what to do from there and this progressive filly could take some beating here.

The next one drawn high is FIVE STAR JUNIOR who again looks a big price at 25/1 from stall 19 and had no luck last time. This race could be run to suit him ideally and I expect to see him fast and late and should not have many traffic problems this time round.

I’m not too keen on the middle draw for Frankie on Global City but should run well, however a bigger danger could come from TOTAL GALLERY who is very interesting back over his optimum 6f with Johnny Murtagh an eyecatching booking. He is another worth throwing into the dutching pool. Winner of the Redcar 2yo trophy and the listed Pavilian Stakes at Ascot in April he has been messed about over 5f when 5th in the Temple Stakes and when less than 5 lengths off Ialysos at the weekend which came either side of a run in the Jersey Stakes. The trip is his optimum and he acts on pretty much any ground but Stan Moore states he is better with cut.

DAMIEN – SHAMWARI LODGE – FIVE STAR JUNIOR – TOTAL GALLERY

Newmarket 2:35

The Cherry Hinton can go to HABAAYIB (pictured) who put up one of the more visually impressive juvenile performances at Royal Ascot when defeating the highly touted O’Brien runner Lily Langtry with ease. Time-wise that was a much better performance than anything in the Queen Mary but I expect Capercaillie to reverse form with Misheer and Ceedwell and prove the biggest threat to the favourite.

Newmarket 3:10

Goldikova is top-rated but you have to worry that her effort in the Breeders Cup left it’s mark and she flopped badly on her return at Longchamp on soft ground. Freddie Head says she is back to her best and if she is and the rain stays away then she will take a lot of beating. I’m not convinced though and any rain would further dent confidence and she could be one to take on.

Spacious ran a big race last time and the change of tactics could see her run close over this C&D where she narrowly failed to land the Guineas last season.
However, she is likely to be taken on up front and I think this combined with any possible rain could finally see John Gosden’s RAINBOW VIEW land the decent prize she promised to as a juvenile. She was not beaten too far on her first run on lightning fast ground in the 1000 Guineas and had her run blocked at a key moment in the Oaks but finished well. She ran her best race yet this season when given a bit too much to do but finishing well in the Coronation Stakes behind possibly the best 3yo mile filly we have seen in some years. That race came plenty quick enough after Epsom and while you should not make too many excuses for defeats I think today the pace, track and going should be right up her street today. She receives a whopping 9lb from the favourite and 3yo’s have won this race the last 3 years running.

Wed 8th July Ratings