I like the Ladies Best at York !

There are no fewer than 8 races on Channel4, 2 from Ascot, 2 from Chester and 4 from the headline meeting at York. Before I get into the rundowns I will just point out that yesterday saw another top-5 priced ValueBet winner in Peper Harow who scored in the 9:00 at Newbury.

This was available at 33/1 with Skybet in the morning but due to a couple of non-runners has worked out just shy of 25/1. This now means that if you had backed the top-5 priced ValueBets so far this month to a 10pt win stake you would be +425pts in profit in just 7 days !

Remember you can receive the ValueBets in a separate email by registering at Betfinder and clicking Alerts under my username secretgambler.

Now onto Saturday’s action kicking off with the 1:50 at Ascot which I covered in detail here.

Download PDF of Saturday’s Ratings

Ascot 1:50

ESPIRITU – 10pts win
SECRET SOCIETY 5pts win

I fancy Espiritu to reverse Brittania form with Secret Society and land the opener for Jeremy Noseda.

York 2:05

TILLYS TALE – 2pts each-way

2yo Nursery…yuch. My play on these races is to leave alone but I have looked at the top 2yo sires from the last 2 years over 5f. What I am looking for is a sire with at least a 10% win strike-rate and 30%+ win and place strike-rate in 2yo races over 5f.

That narrows it down to…

Final Ovation – Acclamation 13% & 53%
Kingdom Of Light – Exceed And Excel 21% & 45%
Tillys Tale – Lucky Story 19% & 54%
Gertmegalush – One Cool Cat 15% & 35%

They key for me here is the trainer form at the moment. P Midgley has scored with 3 of his last 4 runners including a  couple of corkers on Friday and I reckon a lot of that could be down to the 7b claimer P Pickard who has won 4 of his last 7 and who caught my eye yesterday @ York with a peach of a ride on Happy Aniversary and then when he won me quite a few quid on 2nd-top rated, 30+ priced Highland Warrior. He looks well worth his 7lb claim and that counts for a lot in nurseries. Given the excellent sire stats and their hot form, TILLY’S TALE looks the value shout and currently 14/1 on Betfair. Kingdom of Light drops significantly in class but is too short for me.

Chester 2:25

REGAL PARADE – 8pts win
OCEAN’S MINSTREL – 1pt e/w

A lot is said about the draw at Chester but I don’t feel it’s as important as is made out. High numbers dominated the races last night and unless you are on a real trailblazer drawn in 1 or 2 over 5f I don’t think it’s ‘that’ important.Red Dune broke a blood vessel last time so that puts me off that one. Express Wish is out of sorts so that leaves me with the top-2. Balthazar’s Gift ran well behind Umbongi last time and Dazzler could get this one out early and fast to the rail but he is 0/5 at this trip and he could be done late by Dandy Nicholls’ (pictured) REGAL PARADE who ran a corker in the Golden Jubilee last time when 9th, has already scooped a couple of listed races at York and Lingfield this year and won the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot last year. He drops right back in grade today and will be tough to beat. 100/30 with Paddy Power looks quite big compared to a few others at the moment.

J Ryan is a trainer to watch at the moment. He landed a GP2 win on Friday in the Superlative Stakes and has scored with 3 of his last 5 runners. Ocean’s Minstrel led the 2000 Guineas field for the first 5 furlongs before fading and it was a similar story in the Jersey Stakes. He has landed a couple of listed races this season at Lingfield and Epsom so this track could be right up his street. With the perceived draw bias not really applicable, he could get to the front from a high draw and still be there at the closing stages for each-way money.

York 2:35

OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY – 7pts e/w
WEBBOW – 2pts e/w
FINAL VERSE – 1pt e/w

Trappy handicap but the way OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY has been finishing his races over 7f the last 2 races suggests the top-rated runner is ready to step back up to the trip where he has had the most success. He was given way too much to do by Phillip Makin at Newcastle last time so could still be very well handicapped and that combined with the step up in trip and a more forceful jock in Tony Hamilton (pictured) on board can see him go very close. 8/1 looks more than a decent price.

Webbow was 4th in this race off a 10lb lower mark but that was a good effort in the heavy ground and he went on to land a couple of handicaps in August. He also ran Osteopathic Remedy very close at Ripon in August and on his reappearance was a close 2nd in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He ran 4 lengths behind Giganticus at Royal Ascot and he can go very close today at odds of around 14/1.

Lang Shining had a tough race pacemaking the Eclipse, this comes plenty soon enough off top-weight and a bigger danger could be Final Verse. It’s been 3 years since he ran 6th to George Washington in the 2000 Guineas but he may just have been suffering from the bounce and a poor draw when nearer last than first in the Hunt Cup. Prior to that he ran Ace Of Hearts close at Newmarket and he is now 16lb lower than his mark he started last season on. He could sneak a place.

Ascot 2:50

AQLAAM – 15pts win
IMBONGI – 5pts win

Cesare won this a few years back but could only finish 3rd last year and ran above himself to finish 2nd in the Queen Anne behind Paco Boy last time. A lot is made of his form at Ascot but he has only won twice at the track in his last 7 races here so it’s overplayed and he is vulnerable to younger, pacier rivals. He is top-rated here but at 8 years of age he is likely to find at least one too good again although he should still run a solid race. It’s also worth pointing out James Fanshawe has only one winner from his last 27 runners. I paid the price in deserting top-rated Goldikova the other day so hope this is the right decision.

AQLAAM was reported to improve for the run when a close 3rd in the Queen Anne and has a major chance here with that run under his belt. Just 1/2 a length behind Cesare he should improve again, is the least exposed runner in the field and is held in high regard by William Haggas. He should be spot on for this.

A bigger danger could come from Imbongi whose trainer took this last year with Archipenko. Imbongi drifted like the proverbial barge at Newmarket as he was expected to need the run so the fact he won so well could be ominous today. However, he still needs to improve  This looks a classic case for a WIN/COVER bet on the main selection.

York 3:10

LADIES BEST 4pts e/w
RE BAROLO – 4pts e/w
ALBAAQA – 5pts win
RIGGINS – 4pts win

The John Smiths Magnet Cup is easily one of the toughest handicaps of the season so far and I’ll be looking at 4 or at least playing with different dutch/win/place bet combinations. Will make my mind up closer to the time.

The first selection is top-rated RE BAROLO with young ‘Bez’ in the plate taking off a handy 5lb. Could be as good on turf as he was on artificial surfaces. In the Zetland Gold Cup in May was held up way too far off the pace but finished well to snatch 3rd and has a 9lb pull with the winner Kingdom Of Fife yet is 4 to 5 times the price. Should run a big race.

I backed Moonquake at Royal Ascot in the Wolferton and it was agonising to see him go so close. Given the form of Godolphin I can see his odds tumble from the best 14/1. Not only is he coming off the back of a good run but is also a course and distance winner. However, it will be very tough to lead all the way in a race more competitive than the one at Royal Ascot and he could struggle in the closing stages.

Cumani is to be feared in these races and RIGGINS could be Group class. Showed an excellent turn of foot to forge clear last time and Saturday is the day to catch Cumani’s runners. The likely strong pace here could play right into his hands and he certainly has the right man aboard in Neil Callan. Can see this starting shorter than 6/1 if momentum builds.

Richard Fahey is bang in form and going for the hat-trick in this race and his ALBAAQA looks his best chance under no.1 stable jock Paul Hanagan. He was unlucky to run 2nd to Kavachi last time over this course staying on all the time over the extended mile. Back in 4th that day was Luca Cumani’s Acrostic who boosted that form last weekend at Sandown in some style. He has a 8lb pull with Moonquake for a defeat 2 outings ago but also a 3lb pull with my final selection. It’s very unusual for a Fahey runner to go through the early part of the season on the same handicap mark but it’s true in this instance

LADIES BEST is 2nd on the ratings and has been in good form this season without catching the eye of the handicapper and can go very close for Brian Ellison, no relation to Jennifer (pictured . He is not as effective over 12f as he is over 10f so strange that 5 of his last 8 runs have been over the 12f. Won a decent handicap at Ponty over 10f on his season debut then ran well when 4th to Duncan at Epsom in the City & Suburban which was good form in hindsight with several winners behind such as Allied Powers, Drill Sergeant and Kavachi. Drops back to 10f after a poor effort over 12f but that form has been franked by Lady Jane Digby since, he could run well at a big price and off the same mark as Epsom. He looks to be my main fancy.

Chester 3:30

BORDERLESCOTT – 10pts win

To put it in simple terms, Borderlescott is well clear of the field here. He has a perfect pitch in stall 2 and was narrowly beaten in this race last year but his 5th to Scenic Blast and Nunthorpe win of last season makes him a formidable opponent here and I expect him to start somewhat shorter than his 9/4 best price.

York 3:45

FURMIGADELAGUISTA – 4pts e/w
DRILL SERGEANT – 1pt e/w

Trappiest race on the card with just 5pts separating the top-5 on the ratings. I’m a big fan of FURMIGADELAGUISTA and at 7’s he rates a fairly solid e/w bet. He looks very progressive, the stable is in form and he loves the track so everything looks in favour of a big run, Neil Callan (pictured)takes the ride.

DRILL SERGEANT won well at Ascot and may have found the ground a bit too soft last time. This will be much more to his liking and Mark Johnston is renowned for producing toug stayers so he could find this 14f trip right up his street and fortunately he is a big price so we can have an e/w bet.

Not a race to get heavily involved in as Warringah is unexposed and may not show up on the ratings, from what I have seen he could be a decent stayer and possibly an Ebor horse.