Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Ratings
Charleville 37.26, Classic Vintage 12.16, Ballyholland 20.9. Steig 7.2, Xtension 5.01, Rip Van Winkle 2.59 just some of the winners highlighted in the chat room from the ratings on Wednesday from Galway and Goodwood.
The stayers are the highlight of day 3 in the Goodwood Cup at 3:25 which I have heading the way of Godolphin’s SCHIAPARELLI.
The ratings did really well again yesterday, especially at ‘Glorious Galway’. Deutschland is sure to be popular in the Galway Hurdle but I have the Noel Meade pair FISHER BRIDGE and SILVERHAND top-rated so I’ll stick with those two. Fisher Bridge is actually the highest rated runner on Thursday.
Back at Goodwood though…
2:10
MIRRORED could improve for this step up in trip after some decent runs in top handicaps and is top-rated ahead of Michael Jarvis’ ALAZEYAB so these two may come out best but I’ll include Shampagne and Sopranist for smaller dutch bets.
2:45
It will be interesting to see where they race and if there is any draw bias here following the removal of the far rail. My hunch is that the high numbers may have a slight advantage on better ground, especially if it rains so BORDERLESCOTT who scored so well last time is really interesting. KINGSGATE NATIVE was entitled to be in need of his race first time out in the Golden Jubilee and will find this a lot easier with that run under his belt. He is my low draw cover. INXILE is unlucky not to be 3/4 having been DQ’ed in France 2 outings ago but won well at Naas before a close 3rd to Benbaun at the Curragh. He has plenty of early toe and the trainer is to be respected in these sprints here.
3:25 SCHIAPARELLI all the way for me here. He won the German Derby and St Leger a few years ago then landed a hat-trick of Group 1’s before being snapped up by Godolphin. He then met with a setback and was off the track for a year till running a good 2nd in the Prix Foy last backend before finishing down the field in the Arc when possibly ‘bouncing’. Ran a good race when 2nd to Doctor Fremantle at the July meeting last time to prove his wellbeing, unexposed as a stayer but bred to relish the trip and lets hope for a flying dismount 
4:00 These fillies races can be trappy so I’ll probably stick to a small stakes dutch on the top-2 STARFALA and PRINCESS TAYLOR. Starfala in particular ran a good race last time in the Lancashire Oaks.
4:35 10pts separate the top-10 here so it’s very trappy and will involve some small dutches. KHOR DUBAI and the Hannon pair along with JOBE who drops in class and should find conditions ideal.
5:10 A dreaded 2yo race but I can gain real confidence now that Neil is posting up his ratings especially when we agree so it’s WATER BISCUIT for me washed down with a cold beer
5:45 This will certainly give us some clues for the Stewards Cup on Saturday, jeez. I think for fields of this size it’s usually best to be drawn really high or really low and also to be trained by Dandy Nicholls who has won this 5 times in the last 10 years. Luckily the top-2 are drawn in stalls 1 and 2 and both are trained by Nicholls so our old favourite INDIAN TRAIL and MANDURAH go in the lucky dip and I’ll then take two from the top please Carol with NORTHERN FLING in 16 and EQUULEUS PICTOR from the top berth.
ValueBets
Epso 555 Calculating 17sky
Galw 200 Shakey Scaffold 15b365
Galw 500 Fisher Bridge 34spbet
Good 435 Khor Dubai 13sky
Strat 445 Roussea 17wh
Top Rated
Galw500 FISHER BRIDGE
Good245 BORDERLESCOTT
Strat335 CHOEMAKEUR
Clear Rated
Epso805 DESIRE TO EXCEL
Muss850 INGLEBY STAR
Epso730 SUPPORT FUND
Stats-Horse
I don’t really pay much attention to the RPR or Raceform RF figures as I feel a lot of people watch/look at them and I prefer my own ratings but I do like to check Raceform’s Speed Figures sometimes when used in conjunction with a few other factors. I have around 20 or 30 queries that I can run and will try to post them up in a stats column at some point next week but I’ll kick one off today. The query is as follows. I think the progeny of Cape Cross, Pivotal and Oasis Dream perform very well over sprint trips. They should do, 2 of them were exceptional Champion Sprinters. The ground has to be taken into consideration, for example Cape Cross tend not to like too much cut and while Pivotal’s act ok on good or good to firm ground, they are clearly better on soft. Oasis Dream can tend to go on any so the query I run is as follows and then I compare against the ratings.
The best qualifier for me on Thursday is the Pivotal filly REQUISITE in the 7.15 at Musselburgh who is a close 2nd on my ratings and confidence will be higher for her if the forecast rains arrive. At forecast odds of around 8/1 in a field of 9 she appeals as a fair value win/place bet. Possibly worth covering the win stake with a bet on top-rated Efistorm though who is well handicapped on best form and has a useful claimer on board.
One other system I follow is the Tylicki system which consists of lumping on the excellent apprentice ‘Fast Freddy’ Tylicki when conditions are right. He is better than a lot of the pro jocks riding right now and the 3lb is he claims is a real gift. It’s interesting to note that at Nottingham in the sprint at 2:40 the draw stats state a low draw is a big bonus when the ground is heavy. Almost like magic we have heavy ground, a 2nd-rated prominent runner with Freddy on board coming out of stall 2 ! It doesn’t get much better than that so get on JILLY WHY who is 2/3 at the track. I can see this one shorten a lot from the 10/1. Caution as ever though and cover stakes with 3-time course winner Cape Royal as remember there is no such thing as a sure thing and he did win this race last year off a 5lb higher mark.
See you in the chat room at 2pm and don’t forget to register for Bet365 and FormBet if you have not already done so to take part in the Saturday TV tipster contest to be in with a chance of winning £100 cash. Full details here.
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