Glorious Goodwood Day 4 Ratings

Another great day at Goodwood on Thursday with Schiaparelli winning the Cup, a well-backed 6/4 favourite, Kingsgate Native in the King George sprint at 7/1 and Water Biscuit at 4/1 in the maiden also top-rated by Neil Bramall’s 2yo ratings. In fact Neil found all 4 winners of the 2yo races he rated from his top-2 which was excellent going.

Jilly Why landed the highlighted race, backed from a high of 10’s into 4/1 at Nottingham under a typical Tylicki drive and while Requisite could only place at Musselburgh after failing to get a clear run, we still found the winner with the top-rated Efistorm at 15/2.

The two clear-rated runners Desire To Excel and Ingleby Star won their races and at long last there was a ValueBet landed with Calculating who was punted from an early 16/1 into 9/2 !

I can’t promise Friday will be as good but I’ll give it a go although I will be playing 3 or 4 in most of the races as it’s the hardest day’s card to me and looks like it’s been put together by a consortium of bookmakers so I sense I might be doing some trading today ! Betfair prices in brackets as at 1am.

2.10
Just 10pts separate the top-5 on the ratings which has been the case for a lot of the races this week such is the competitive nature of the festival and as a result it’s not always been easy to find the winner. I will go with the top-rated WARRINGAH (5.6) for the Stoute/Moore combo (pictured). Was a bit unlucky to be caught after showing an excellent attitude from the front at York over 14f last time in a strong listed handicap. The drop back to 12f will suit as will any more rain if it arrives and he can continue his progress.
Drumfire won well on Tuesday here over 10f but this is a tough ask in a tougher race over 2f further on ground slightly different than he faced then but he should make a bold bid.
Course specialist Illustrious Blue should go well also but the form of INDIAN DAYS (13) 4th to Doctor Fremantle in a Group2 Newmarket contest with Schiaparelli just a neck ahead in 3rd was given a major boost yesterday and he is one for the dutch and place bets, given the improvement he showed stepped up to 12f that day.

2:45
The Stewards Cup consolation race and the big question is whether INDIAN TRAIL (14) will line up here after his exertions on Thursday where he amazingly hit 1/3 and shorter in running. The big + of course is Frankie is on board but whether he has recovered sufficiently to be a force in this race is another matter. I will include him though as he is top-rated and who knows, we could get an option to layoff at shorter again or he may even find improvement as Dettori is riding really well at the moment.
This is a pinstickers race though so I’ll go with SPIRIT OF SHARJAH (28), EVERYMANFORHIMSELF (14.5) and SUNRISE SAFARI (9.6) for dutching but keep the stakes relatively small. Harrison George and Northern Dare are others in a wide-open cavalry charge but they look plenty short enough.

3:25

I have LOVELACE (20) well clear on the ratings here and with Spencer booked has to be shortlisted as it is so far clear but (and it’s a big but) the draw plays a significant part in this race just look at the chart of the last 10 winners, almost all have come from the top few stalls and 75% of the placed horses were drawn higher than 12. He was undone by the draw in the Hunt Cup and it could be the same here but he is still overpriced. There can be only one bet from the high stalls and yes you guessed it, it’s Fast Freddy Tylicki on Richard Fahey’s EXTRATERRESTRIAL (8.6) from stall 20 and this will be my main bet in the race. Won the Spring Cup back in April of a 3lb higher mark and didn’t have a decent draw at Sandown last time after an abscence. Has the appearance of a plot this one. LAA RAYB (36) comes out top on a lot of the speed figures for this race and and may be worth a small win/place bet especially as the first-time blinkers may have a positive effect. Another danger is Henry Cecil’s CLOUDY START (8.6) who is the highest rated from a high draw after Tylicki’s mount and is worth at least a cover bet on the other runners. Spectait (13) won this about 3 years ago and is not rated too far behind these.

4.00
Haven’t looked too much at this race but have spotted that Neil has DICK TURPIN (3.2) rated ahead of RAKAAN 6.6)here. The way I play these types of race is to split my stakes on the 2 runners as oppose to a dutch and hope the bigger priced of the 2 obliges, if the other wins then a small profit is still achieved.

4.35
Probably not a flying dismount but Godolphin, as I pointed out last month, have a much better strike-rate in the 2nd half of the season nowadays and this meeting has always been good to them. BLACK SNOWFLAKE (4.7) under the in-form Frankie Dettori should go well here while Raine’s Cross (27), although exposed, looks a big price. The Hills runner Gunner Lindley (9) can also run a big race but for a 2nd bet I’ll take an each-way poke on Mark Johnston’s ROCK OF LOVE (18.5). Neil is quite strong on THE HUMAN LEAGUE (19.5) so I’ll throw that in as well for a smaller win/place. I can see the Hannon runner Avon River (19.5) shortening, however, a 20-runner Nursery is not ideal betting fodder.

5:10
I always tread carefully with fillies races so I’ll just stick to a small bet on the dropped in class PENNY’S GIFT (5.4) and have a small win/place on ROYAL CONFIDENCE (16).

5:45
I often find that Gosden tends to go quiet for a spell in July and August before coming back into form at the tail-end of the season but that may just be a hunch and not based on any hard facts but again I’ll stick to the top-3 with GREEN BERET (5), MATTAMIA (12) and NOBLE STORM (7).

ValueBets

Good245 INDIAN TRAIL 13 betfair
Good325 LOVELACE 18 betfair
Galw510 ROOT CAUSE 26 lads
Newm730 SEAMUS SHINDIG 11 betfair
Hayd820 SOCIAL RHYTHM 17 b365

Top-Rated

Galw615 KNIGHT LEGEND (6)
Bang525 RUBY VALENTINE (8)
Good325 LOVELACE (20)

Clear-Rated

Bang525 RUBY VALENTINE (8)
Thirs350 ALICANTE (1.9)
Good325 LOVELACE (20)

Elsewhere at Newmarket tonight SEAMUS SHINDIG (11) is interesting at likely decent each-way odds. Met plenty of trouble in running when beaten less than 5 lengths behind subsequent Wokingham and GP3 winner High Standing but didn’t do so well last time at Doncaster although it looked a much hotter handicap than he faces today. Is a course and distance winner here off just a 2lb higher mark and could reward a win/place bet with trainer and jockey amongst the winners in the last week.

Jilly Why did us a favour yesterday and that was up and coming trainer Paul Green’s 4th winner in the last week or so. His course winner FEELING FRESH (12) should handle the conditions and step up in trip ok in the 8:55 at Haydock as he was not stopping over 6f after a slow start last time at Hamilton.

I’m always on the look out for the ‘next’ Tylicki and Toby Atkinson certainly fits the bill. He certainly has the right genes being Pat Eddery’s son and he did us a favour on Calculating last night. It’s just a matter of time before his 7lb claim is cut so we should take full advantage. He can help CREDIT SWAP (7) land the hat-trick at Newmarket in the 8:35 tonight. His 2 last wins have both come over straight miles and this should be right up his street. He carries top-weight but that is not such a negative at Newmarket, they are likely to go off quite fast here which will suit his hold up style and he is another worth a win/place bet.

Fri 31st July Ratings