Sat Update – Scoop6 Races Preview

I will collate the Scoop6 votes and put the final results up on this thread and in the forum post by 1pm, so get your votes in or post your comments in the forum.Here is my take on things. Also to add, I probably won’t be laying Monsieur Chevalier. Neil has advised it might be a bad idea and he knows 2yo’s better than I do. Also, as one of his main rivals Star Rover is out of the running it is a big plus in his favour and gives him a better chance of winning.

Haydock 1.55

Although I have Hamish McGonagall top rated that is largely due to his consistency but his habit of finding one too good is frustrating and he has had a few tough ones lately. STRIKE UP THE BAND is a big price but his form behind Borderlescott at Chester last time in a listed contest looks pretty good now and Nicholls has an excellent s/r both with sprinters and at the track. His son Adrian takes the ride.

Blue Jack and Northern Dare are next on my ratings and NORTHERN DARE is preferred with a 6lb pull giving him a chance of reversing the form on a more preferable softer surface. The booking of the excellent Jim Crowley is an additional bonus for the Nicholls sprinter.

Arganil is one that takes my eye a bit further down. He was only beaten a few lengths in a GP2 here on desperate ground behind Look Busy and was then not disgraced in a GP3 behind Knot in Wood over 6f in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. This drop to 5f with a bit of cut could be ideal and he looks a big price but he has a fair bit of weight to overcome.

STRIKE UP THE BAND – NORTHERN DARE

Haydock 2.25

Be very interesting to see what kind of a ride CONFRONT gets as I don’t feel Ryan Moore gave him the best of rides last time when dead-heating and the step back up to a mile may help although I’m not sure how he will handle the going.

Ratings-aside, one I have had a gg-alert for when ground is genuine soft or heavy over a mile, conditions he has not had for some time is SMOKEY OAKEY. He is 3/4 over a mile when the ground has been soft or heavy and included a hot handicap at Ayr and the William Hill Lincoln last year. If that was not enough he landed the Group3 Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last season on soft ground from Maraahel and Pipedreamer. He has not shown much since then but has not had the optimum conditions he has today. He has been gelded since last year, has been working really well at home and is my hurdler to follow for the forthcoming jumps season when he is sent over timber.

CONFRONT – SMOKEY OAKEY

Haydock 2.55

This is going to be a war of attrition and a real slog. The winner is going to need to have boundless stamina and handle the conditions and track. The first one that sprung to my mind was Som Tala who will face similar conditions as he did at Newcastle in the Plate and has Kieren Fallon in the plate but he is none too consistent and is way down my ratings for this. HITS ONLY VIC is remarkably consistent and the softer the better. He ran a cracking 3rd in the Ebor last time and has carried a big weight on heavy ground over this course and distance before. He will be first on my list. However, I am not convinced MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR had the best of runs when 7th behind him that day and he has a 6lb pull for a few lengths beating. He has form on soft, notably when beating the subsequent Group class Tastahil last season and can run a big race given more luck in running this time.I will throw a 3rd one in the ring and when you are looking at a stamina test you have to think about Mark Johnston. Alanbrooke looks the obvious one but I think soft ground and a trip could be the making of YES MR PRESIDENT. By Montjeu he should relish the conditions and has been running well of late.

MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR – HITS ONLY VIC – YES MR PRESIDENT

Kempton 3.10

Trappy race but MUSLEH did leave quite an impression last time and could be tough to peg back. Frankie goes here instead of Haydock which says a lot I think. The low draw is a huge worry though so I’ll go with top-rated C&D winner SET THE TREND for the Balding/Buick combo out of stall 15 as my other selection.

MUSLEH – SET THE TREND

Haydock 3.30

If there is no more significant rain then I am going to go with the top-rated FLEETING SPIRIT. I think the fact she skipped the Nunthorpe could have been a blessing actually as she goes better fresh and her form is head and shoulders above anything else in the field. I’ve watched the July Cup a few times in the last few days and the fact she wandered all over the place detracted somewhat from the electric acceleration she showed that day and if she had stayed straight she would have won by even further. Her proven form at the course is also a plus and she should take all the beating if lining up. If more rain does arrive then her participation has to be in doubt and one that could come rught into the mix is last year’s Ayr Gold Cup winner REGAL PARADE for sprint-king Dandy Nicholls. I’ve already pointed out his good record at this track but any rain would bring this Pivotal gelding right into the equation, not much to find with Finjaan and the like and softer ground could make a huge difference for this improving sprinter. Another danger if Fleeting Spirit doesn’t line up would be High Standing. He has improved so much as the season has progressed with wins in the Wokingham and last time in the Hackwood Stakes. He has a bit to find but rapidly improving sprinters are preferred to others that have been found wanting at this level and a 6/6 over 6f and Group1 win for Fallon could be the story of the day, well at least for 20 minutes anyway ;-)

FLEETING SPIRIT – REGAL PARADE (HIGH STANDING 2nd bet if FS absent)

Thirsk 3.40

Hardest race of the 6 to me and a real minefield.I have no real opinion on this race and can’t muster the enthusiasm to look right now, so I will just trust in my ratings and go with the top-two.

DEMOLITION – SHALOO DIAMOND

Get your votes in now while there is still time..

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Ok using my ratings and a combo of the vote along with the guys who posted their opinion (cheers guys)…here would be the final perm I would consider…

1355- ARGANIL – BLUE JACK – STRIKE UP THE BAND

1425- RIO DE LA PLATA – CONFRONT

1455- HITS ONLY VIC – CONQUISTO

1510- MUSLEH – SET THE TREND

1530- FLEETING SPIRIT – HIGH STANDING

1540- DEMOLITION – RANGEFINDER

So 96 lines @ £2 = £192

I think this gives us a fair amount of coverage and is the best I could come up with so we shall see how it goes