Scoop6 12th Sep Races
I am looking for as many people as possible to post up a selection and danger in each Scoop6 race with a short bit of analysis in the forum post for this weekend. If 6 races proves too much and you want to put up a more detailed analysis of just one of the races or a couple of horses you fancy then please feel free as the more input the better to assist in determining selections. I will then use these selections in conjunction with my ratings and statistics to compile the final perm this Saturday.
There was no winner of the Scoop6 last weekend. That is great news for syndicates as this Saturday the Win fund will start off with £149,165 rolled over from last week and the Bonus fund has £63,928 in it already. Both these totals will grow rapidly as more stakes are placed.
A single winner of the Win and Bonus Funds could scoop up to £350,000! This Saturday’s Scoop6 which is made up of races from Haydock and Kempton. The Betfred Sprint Cup is the highlight of the Haydock card.
I will open up the syndicate subscriptions next week for 2 weeks with a view to kicking things off on October 3rd. The cost will be £30 for 8-weeks entries into the Scoop6 and Placepot syndicates. Once all the money is in by the end of September then the pooled money will be split – possibly 90% into the Scoop6 Pool and 10% for the weekend Placepot Pools.
Get your selections in now in the forum thread.
Join the forum discussion on this post
About This Post
1.55
LAYALI AL ANDALUS
Won on his latest outing when evens fav at Newcastle over 1m (good to firm) last month, beating
Bonfire Knight by 2 3/4l. Has also won at Doncaster this season.
Successful at 7f and 1m on good to firm and good ground.
Trainer and jockey have fairly good strike rate at track and over the last few days.
DANGER – SILVER GRECIAN
2.10
JET D'EAU
Successful at 5f and 6f on good ground. Finished 5l behind Ordnance Row when fifth
of 7 at 14-1 on her latest outing over this course and distance (good to firm) last month.
Down 2 grades from last run
DANGER – SURUOR
2.25
JUDGE 'N JURY
Has won eight races at 5f on ground varying from good to firm to soft and on the
all-weather. Beaten 1l by Reverence when second of 7 at 8-1 on his latest outing in the Group 3
Grenzen Flying Five Stakes at Curragh over 5f (heavy) last month.
Has also won off 4lb higher.
DANGER – MARKAB
3.00
MONITOR CLOSELY
Won by 4 lengths last time out at York over 1m 4f.Up in trip for this but ran on well last race.Down 2 grades from last race.
DANGER – FATHER TIME
3.10
GOING FOR GOLD
A winner at 1m 4f on firm ground. Third of 9 behind Excelsior Academy
beaten 1 3/4l at 6-1 on her latest outing at Haydock over 1m 4f (good to firm) last month.Dont like this race to much.
DANGER – SAM SHARP
3.35
OUQBA
Potentially a very good horse,has won four from eleven starts and placed on two other occaisions.Should be thereabouts in another difficult race.Not great on its last run but down 2 grades from that race and won the previous.
DANGER – DUFF
Edited to put the dangers in.
Leg 1: Selection: No.4 Layali Al Andalis. A tough race to start with but this one looks like a typical Johnston type who can improve through the ranks. Only won in maiden and nursery company so far, but trainer has won this twice in last 10 years so knows what it takes.
Danger: No.7 Viscount Nelson. O'Brien's record at the track is surprisingly ordinary, but comes here three handed with this one the main hope. Might just be good enough to see off the Godolphin challenger.
Leg 2: Selection: No.1 Golden Desert. A tricky handicap, but I'll give the vote to the top one with winning form at the track and from a stable in good recent nick.
Danger: No.2 Vitznau. Another with good form at the track and interestingly has come tumbling down the handicap since last successful and looks to be on a competitive mark. Has the assistance of the champion jockey on top.
Leg 3: No.1 Markab. Sprint handicaps are not really my thing but this horse doesn't know how to run a bad race and should give another good account of himself if the low numbers are competitive.
Danger: Barney McGrew. Did really well to come off the pace to win last time at York. Most winners there this season seem to need to race handily, so he deserves extra credit. Must be a danger here too.
Leg 4: No.3 Father Time. Was hugely impressive when winning his Group 2 at Royal Ascot and probably undone by the uneven pace last time in the Great Voltiguer, which is the usually the best trial for the Leger. I expect the O'Brien horses to ensure a good gallop which may scupper the chances of doubtful stayer Monitor Closely and set things up for the Cecil horse who is a strong fancy of mine.
Danger: Mourayan. Has been keeping good company all season but lacks the gears for 10 or 12 furlongs. May appreciate the step up in trip.
Leg 5: No. 9 Knight's Victory. An open looking race with some ordinary looking types. Might be worth siding with the unexposed Johnston/Fairley runner, who know how to produce Goodwood winners.
Danger: No.4 Hazy Dancer. Has not run since the Cheshire Oaks where she was tailed off, but stable firing now and another unexposed type to consider.
Leg 6: No.4 Stimulation. Has won first time out in each of the last 2 seasons, so long absence should not be a concern. Top on official ratings, so well in at the weights.
Danger: Ouqba. Finished down the field in the Guineas but a good Royal Ascot winner in the Jersey Stakes. Possible didn't handle the track at Goodwood last time, but should be more at home on flatter terrain and can give the selection plenty to think about. Barry Hills has always done well at Donny.
Been out – not much time – too tired to face a 24-runner hcap now , so here's my first two selections ; I'll post the rest in the morning , if I'm up in time .
Doncaster 1.55 What a teaser for a 7-horse race – bargain basement versus beautifully-bred big-name entries . A lot depends on how far you can take Silver Grecian's Group 2 win at face value . It was a messy race , and the second Roi de Vitesse (cost only 8K) is weighted to reverse the form – but he's possibly flattered by the run of the race , seems quite exposed and lacking the scope of some ; however , Silver Grecian didn't have it easy and came with a great burst to put Emperor Claudius and Big Audio (who beat Emperor a sh in his previous race) in their places ; the 2nd went on to take the Gp.3 Solario nto . The chance of Poet's Voice (whose sire won this race) is obvious – a very easy c4 win (beaten horses improved and won since) sandwiched by two 3rds to the very impressive Elusive Pimpernel , the last in the Gp3 Acomb Stakes ; however ,there's a lot of collateral linking PV,RdeV,EC and SG , and in the end it finds very little between PV and EC ; when you take into account Poet's Voice's rather headstrong performances so far , I think I'd prefer to have Silver Grecian attacking from behind . Johnston's Ayali Al Andalus is progressive and won his last two easily , but he's yet to mix it with anything of much account , so there's nothing in the book yet to suggest he can win this . As for O'Brien's other two , the usual puzzle – Murtagh rides Viscount Nelson , but on the book so far he's nothing special : his Listed win was a 5-runner race with 3 O'Brien entries . Await The Dawn made the most impressive debut (8f soft) , yet those behind him have done nothing much , and on the face of it he's the least likely candidate for 7f on GF . So I stick with the book and vote for the £16k SILVER GRECIAN to remain unbeaten , with POET'S VOICE next best .
Goodwood 2.10
8 years since a 3yo won it , but it's difficult to get away from the rapidly improving Suruor , though he's meeting his elders for the first time ; Shamwari Lodge and Secret Society have hardly let the form of his last two races down ! The progressive AW winner Crown Choice could obviously go well , but this is a big step up , and I pass over him .Plenty with a chance on their best form , like Vitznau , who doesn't look likely to produce it , and Noble Citizen , even less likely . Jet d'Eau kept good company last year in France , but doesn't look quite up to this . I'd give a better chance to two coming back from a mile , Dunn'o and Ispahan – the latter looks well-weighted , having won a class 2 off 1lb more last year , and showing signs of returning to form ; but I'll vote for GOLDEN DESERT , who seems to be at his best , to come second to SURUOR .
Mike
I've only had a 'few' beers tonight to celebrate a friends birthday but thought I would post this now while awake instead of through bleary eyes in the 'morning'.
Here are my Scoop6 thoughts. I haven't read anyone elses before writing this but will check them out and combine with these/ratings before the start of racing.
Donc 1.55 POET'S VOICE (LAYAL AN ANDALUS)
Godolphin are proving unstoppable with their juveniles at the moment. They had a good Dubawi-sired winner on Friday with Sand Vixen and another of his progeny Poet's Voice holds strong claims following his 3rd in the Acomb. That form was boosted by the 2nd that day Imperial Commander winning a listed Haydock event last week and he is the one to beat.
Silver Grecian won the GP2 Superlative Stakes last time and is on for a hat-trick but that didn't look the strongest of GP2's and he has to improve again. Hard to know which of O'Brien's is best but looks to be Viscount Nelson who can give Kingsfort's maiden form a boost by running well here but a bigger danger may be Mark Johnston's Halling colt LAYALI AN ANDALUS He won his maiden over c&d by 7 lengths before trotting up in what looked a decent nursery last time. More is required here but he looks progressive and could be tough to peg back if allowed to get an easy lead.
Good 2.10 GOLDEN DESERT (SURUOR)
Terry Mills is in a good run of form lately and Golden Desert can run a big race. He won well over 6f here last time and the step up to 7f is not a probem as he is proven over it and could have more to give.
Another consistent performer is SURUOR who is hard to keep out the frame and is a course and distance winner. He has won 3 and placed twice from his last 6 runs so at the very worst should at least give a place pool.Simcock's other runner Noble Citizen is on a decent handicap mark and could run better than his odds suggest.
Donc 2.25 JUDGE 'N JURY (MARKAB)
If I were to pick the top-3 on breeding it would be very simple. Speedster STRIKING SPIRIT by Oasis Dream will appreciate the drop in trip, JUDGE 'N JURY and RIVER FALCON by Pivotal are both bred to be decent but of the 3 I like the consistent Judge 'N Jury who is also a close 3rd on my ratings.
I'd also throw in my top-rated MARKAB who won well last time in the Great St Wilfrid and this trip could be even more in his favour. He rates the main danger. Intrepid Jack is 2nd on my ratings but his sire Compton Place sits at the foot of all these in terms of wins and place s/r so has to be dropped.
Donc 3.00 KITE WOOD (FATHER TIME)
Progeny of Galileo have a 20% s/r on firm ground and have the best strike-rated of these sires over this 14f trip so the Godolphin colt looks to have everything in his favour and has easily the best form coming into the race with his GP3 Geoffrey Freer win being franked by the 2nd Halicarnassus landing a GP2 in Turkey recently.
I can't have Changingoftheguard as the Ebor form has generally been letdown apart from Nanton on Friday and this is a big leap.
Monitor Closely poached a soft lead last time and turned the Great Voltigeur into a sprint last time which suited the son of Oasis Dream. With pacemakers in the race he will not have that luxury and with a few extra furlongs this will be tough for him in the closing stages.
The pace of that race was all against FATHER TIME there but this should be right up his street and given Cecil's record in this race he is respected and rates the chief threat on his decent GP2 King Edward win at Royal Ascot. Horses beaten in the Great Voltigeur have just as good a record as those that have won the race in recent years with Brian Boru, Mutafaweq and Bollin Eric all scoring having been beaten in that race. He was entitled to come on for that race after 2 months off and you can be sure that this race will have been his target but the big worry was Cecil's comments that he was not letting himself down on the fast ground at York but they have watered and it is reported as being good in places on the round course so it 'should' be ok.
Goodwood 3.10 GOING FOR GOLD – HAZY DANCER
This race moreso than the Portland looks a rea Scoop6 buster. Sam Sharp is top-rated but I don't like the sire Johannesburg stats much and there is not much to suggest this marked step up in trip is what he wants. Hope I won't be kicking myself afterwards.
Blinkers appear for the first time on Solar Graphite and I would consider him but Dunlop appears to have gone out of form just as quickly as he went into form.Conditions are in his favour though but he is relunctantly passed over as well.
GOING FOR GOLD is the first one I like for the in-form Roger Charlton. Didn't like the cut in the ground last time but romped home in a decent handicap the time before that and back on a fast surface could go close.
Marcus Tregoning can do no wrong at the moment and despite being down the bottom he is by the best sire in Oasis Dream and while this 12f trip may be pushing it there is enough stamina on the dam side, he will love the ground, is unexposed and could spring a shock. An interesting race to see if my judgement beats my ratings
Doncaster 3.35 HIMALYA – STIMULATION
Strange that this 6-runner non-handicap and not the 11-runner handicap at Goodwood is not the last leg but what do I know about choosing the Scoop6 races.
Not that it makes it any easier. One that is on my list though and again ignoring my ratings is HIMALYA. I have been waiting for this one since Royal Ascot last year when running a solid race in the Coventry just beaten a few lengths on only it's 2nd ever start. Iis entitled to come on for this outing but did win first time out in his maiden last year and Noseda can get them ready first time.
I can't completely ignore my ratings though and with the decent record of favourites in small field stakes races and the fact she is top-rated, STIMULATION has to be shortlisted despite again lack of a recent run.
Very quick run-down of last four :
Doncaster 2.25 an obvious approach is to dismiss those giving no obvious sign of being ready to run to their best – gets rid of a surprising number of the 24 . Fallon may well romp home on the near side on Jaconet , but more of the pace is in the low to middle range , and I finish up with first choice JUDGE 'N JURY , looks around his best , and more reliable than many ; and JOHANNES - I opposed this last time , trying to be clever about the way the race would be : he got an ideal passage , but he won in a very businesslike way , so even though he's climbed the handicap rapidly recently , there could well be more in the locker – and even now he's a bit to go before he reaches the mark he was on as a juvenile .
3.00 Doncaster Can't get away from the claims of KITE WOOD , and none of the rest look particularly convincing ; Mourayan may have the best chance of finding enough at this distance to get close .
3.10 Goodwood Tricky race – no confidence . First KNIGHT'S VICTORY – I hope not just because I backed it when it won -ignoring its poor last run , should improve over 12f . Second choice BROOKLYN SPIRIT
Doncaster 3.35 Only 5 go , and I finish up with the two who've not yet been out this year , so obviously no certainties ! STIMULATION has a lot of decent form in the book , and there seems no reason to argue with his defeat of main rival Cat Junior last year . HIMALYA made a cracking start , but wasn't seen after the Coventry , only his second race – could be top-notch , but I have to make STIMULATION first choice on account of his experience .
So my perm would be (in preferred order)
Silver Grecian – Poet's Voice
Suruor – Golden Desert
Judge 'N Jury – Johannes
Kite Wood – Mourayan
Knight's NR Victory – Brooklyn Spirit
Stimulation – Himalya
Hope my vote's in in time to count !
Mike
first post here….sound the bugle……..fwiw , here are mine…….
1st viscount nelson – jm rides ,thingk that irish maiden could be top form
2nd golden desert – form cd winner , right age group ?
3rd tony tap – in form , good run lto , stab in dark !
4th mastery -to outstay the lot
5th solar graphite – 1st time bl , high teens trainer/jock stats
6th cat junior – bh always liked this one , has to win soon , shirley?
GL to all
BALLS I JUST SPENT LAST HALF HOUR TYPING A LOAD UP REGARDING PICKS URGHHH AND LOST IT! FUMING!
CAN I JUST LIST THEM NOW PLEASE LOL
1355 LAYALI AL ANDALUS DANGER POETS CHOICE
1410 SUROR DANGER GOLDEN DESERT
1425 JUDGE N JURY DANGER PAVERSHOOZ
1500 FATHER TIME DANGER CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
1510 SAM SHARP DANGER MYKINGDOMEFORAHORSE
1535 ARABIAN GLEAM DANGER STIMULATION
I have looked at my speed ratings and daves ratings, also looking for value for the horse based on early prices. I have taken alot of consideration at Doncaster with picks that have good ability and form ratings, plus good course and distance experience. Quite a tricky day, although I confident with the selections made to have the ability to have big races today!
So annoyed losing my write up for each race arghhhhhhh
1.55 Doncaster
Poets voice – Would have won last time if he hadnt left the stalls early, big chance today.
Silver Grecian – the danger, visually impressive and open to improvement.
2.10 Goodwood
Suruor – Progressive and open to further improvement
Vitznau – the danger, moore and hannon flying at the moment.
2.25 Doncaster
Pavershooz – Like this horse, think there could be more to come.
Judge and Jury – The danger, looks overpriced, was running in a group 3 the other day.
3.00 Doncaster
Kite wood – Got a good chance even though the ground may not be in his favour
Changingoftheguard, monitor closely, the dangers, think they will love the ground and also the trip
3.10 Goodwood.
Sam sharp
Hazy dancer
3.35
Ouqba
Arabian gleam
havent got time to describe last two races, working at ffos las in a bit and laptop playing up! good luck everyone
Doncaster 1.55
LAYALI AL ANDALUS
seems to tick all the boxes. Has won at 6,7, and 8 furlongs so speed and stamina not in doubt. And is a course and distance winner. Only doubt would be the step up to Class 1.
Silver Grecian seems to be a very progressive horse, but wonder about the 64 day lay off.
Await the Dawn and Viscount Nelson, i'd have my doubts about the ground as they have have run all their races on at least Soft ground.
Emperor Claudius has dissapointed at 7f so far, and has finished behind Silver Grecian and Roi Vitesse this season over 7F.
Poet's Voice has won at distance, trainer and jockey in cracking form, but just wonder when the heat gets applied if it has the resolution.
Roi de Vitesse. Having first run for new stable today, and in my opinion a little bit out of its league here.
Selection : LAYALI AL ANDALUS………………..danger POET'S VOICE
Goodwood 2.10
Golden Desert.
Won here on latest outing, and distance no problem either. In good form and will be thereabouts.
Vitznau. Can discount this one primarily on the fact all his wins have been on good, good/soft.
Jet D'Eau. A maiden and will remain so after this race.
Dunn'o. Dropping back in trip, but more a Sandown specialist.
Suruor.
C/D winner which is always a plus for this course. Trainer seems to be getting the best out of this horse.
Beaver Patrol. Sadly out of form, and does not get 7f.
Crown Choice. In form, but on the A/W, and a bit of step up in class here.
Noble Citizen. Never seems to run two races the same these days. Poor last race, so maybe today is going to be a good un'.
Kings Wonder. Does seem to run his better races here, but may find the opposition a bit too good today.
Isphahan. Out of the Handicap proper, so may not be good enough here.
Selection : GOLDEN DESERT……………………danger SURUOR
Doncaster 2.25
Well i'm definitely not going through all 24 runners here. Oh good, 2 non runners, that will help.
This is a narrow it down job. Some based on stats.
First the draw. In the last 10 years the stalls 1 to 7 have only produced 1 winner from 68 horses, so thats a bit of a negative, wheras stalls 8 and upper have almost shared the other 9 winners.
Official Ratings. Those rated 90-99 have won 7 of the last 10. Those under 90 have only produced 1.
Age. No 6-y-o have won any of the last 10, so another negative there. 7+ have the best record with 4 wins.
Weight. 8-7 up to 9-6 have produced 9 of the last ten wins. Under 8-7 is zero, and over 9-7 just the one, so two negatives there.
Total Wins. Horses with at least 4 career wins have the best record in the last 10 years with 8 wins.
Market. 2nd favourites have a zero record in the last ten years.
so what does that leave us with by maybe a process of elimination.
How many negatives can each horse chalk up.
Draw negatives. Markab, Buachaill Dona, Striking Spirit, Ishetoo, Captain Dunne, Pavershooz,
Ratings (Under 90) Peak District, Orpsie Boy, Green Manalishi
Age (6yo) Markab, BarneyMcGrew, Buachaill Dona, Johannes, Orpsie Boy
Weight (under 8-7, and over 9-7) Markab, Group Therapy, Barney McGrew, Intrepid Jack, Buachaill Dona.
Wins (less than 4 career wins) Group Therapy, Striking Spirit, Santo Padre, Captain Dunne, Peak District.
Market (2nd Fav) possibly Jaconet, Pavershooz.
Markab…………..3 negatives
Buachaill Dona…3 negatives
Group Therapy…2
Striking Spirit…..2
Captain Dunne…2
Pavershooz……..2
Orpsie Boy………2
Peak District……2
Barney McGrew…2
Ishetoo…………..1
Green Manalishi..1
Johannes…………1
Intrepid Jack…….1
Santo Padre………1
Jaconet……………1
So now we have 7 left, they being Judge'n Jury, Oldjoesaid, Everymanforhimself, Fullandby, River Falcon, Northern Dare, Tony The Tap
Judge'n Jury a confirmed 5 horse, consistent form of late. Every Chance. Just on the edge of the poor low draw though.
Oldjoesaid. Not won since April 08, so form not on its side, however, good draw.
Everymanforhimself. Beaten 7l behind Markab in last race, well drawn, Spencer good\bad ?, maybe a Spencer hold up horse, coming on the scene late.
Fullandby. A previous winner of this race and a decent handicapper, but just seems to be struggling lately.
River Falcon. Last win over two years ago, so maybe his best days have gone, but Jim Goldie is a shrewd trainer.
Northern Dare. Ground may be too lively for this one. Dandy Nicholls has never won the Portland, must be nagging at the Sprint King, not having this one in his locker, and this may be the weaker of his runners today.
Tony The Tap. Darryl Holland, master of front running pace, on this one for only 2nd time. If the 'Dazzler' gets him out in front he may be difficult to peg back. In decent form just now.
Selections ; EVERYMANFORHIMSELF……………danger JUDGE'N JURY…………..outsider STRIKING SPIRIT
Doncaster 3.00 This must be easy after that.
More Stats though :
LTO : 14 of last 15 winners finished in first three last time. ……………..strike out Above Average and Von Jawlensky
Distance LTO : all of the 15 winners ran over 1m4f last time………….strike out Changingoftheguard, Kite Wood(1m5f), Von Jawlensky.
Course LTO : 8 of 15 winners ran at York LTO………strike out Kite Wood, Mourayan, Von Jawlensky
Outside Group company in last race…..strike out Changingoftheguard…Von Jawlensky.
so that leaves three without negatives……Father Time, Mastery, Monitor Closely. The first three home in the Great Voltiguer.
Father Time, 3rd behind Monitor Closely in Voltiguer. Interesting that Cecil has booked Spencer for the ride.
Mastery. 2nd behind Monitor Closely. Last three rides, ridden by Dettori, who must feel he has got to ride the stable no.1
Monitor Closely, Voltigeur winner, improved for the step up in distance last time. Hopefully, Fortune will not lead from the front this time, as O'Brien rag should be doing that. So if he improves for the distance again, and Chapple-Hyam is good at doing that with horse, maybe he will be in with a chance.
Despite the negatives I still feel Kite Wood will run a big race, so its
Selection ; KITE WOOD.…………………danger Monitor Closely
Goodwood 3.10
Going For Gold…..stamina no problem here and will be staying on when others cry no more.
Cry For The Moon…needs to improve on last race
Brooklyn Street….dropping down a class for an increase in distance, tricky
to weigh up.
Hazy Dancer…. off course for long period, may not be good enough.
Andhaar….can't see this one winning
Ladies Dancing….another one back after a long lay off…..not sure
Sam Sharp…..stepping up in trip, has had plenty of chances, doesn't cut it for me.
Knight's Victory…….could be another Johnston stayer, so a place maybe.
Mykingdomforahorse……..another stepping up in trip, difficult to fathom out.
Rockfella…..has been found wanting at this level in the past and may do again.
Selections…….GOING FOR GOLD……………..danger BROOKLYN STREET
Doncaster 3.35
Arabian Gleam……won this race the last two seasons so knows what is required.
Cat Junior…….has not won since first outing in Aug07.
Duff……..normally runs well on these shores but recent form not a positive
Stimulation…….has won both his races after a break of more than 60 days, so goes well fresh, obvious chance.
Himalya…..if can reproduce Coventry form has a chance, but long lay off a worry.
Ougba…..forget his last race (reportedly lame), must have a chance.
Selection : STIMULATION…………….danger……Arabian Gleam
Cracking write up Brian mate!
It will only be any good if i've got it right though.
shame you lost your write up, bloody frustrating that must be. I know when I hit save I thought I hope this bloody does save. That was about 2+ hrs work. I thought afterwards I should be doing it in Microsoft Word, saving as you go, and then paste onto this site. Maybe something to consider for future
* Updated @ 12.30 to include Brian's selections….
I've taken a look at all the selections and dangers and using a crude 10pts for main choice and 5pts for the danger it looks like this for each race…
Good155
Layali Al Andalus – 45
Poet's Voice – 40
Silver Grecian – 15
Viscount Nelson – 15
Good210
Golden Desert – 55
Suruor – 45
Jet D'Eau – 10
Vitznau – 10
Donc225
Judge N Jury – 50
Markab – 20
Pavershooz – 15
Tony Tap – 10
Everymanforhimself – 10
Barney McGrew – 5
Johannes – 5
Donc300
Kite Wood – 40
Father Time – 30
Mastery – 10
Monitor Closely – 15
Changingoftheguard – 10
Mourayan – 10
Good310
Going For Gold – 30
Sam Sharp – 25
Knight's Victory – 20
Hazy Dancer – 15
Solar Graphite – 10
Brooklyn Spirit – 10
Mykingdomforahorse – 5
Donc335
Stimulation – 40
Ouqba – 25
Himalya – 15
Arabian Gleam – 20
Cat Junior – 10
Duff – 5
So just using a simplistic top-2 in each race the final perm would look something like this…
1.55 Layali Al Andalus – Poet's Voice
2.10 Golden Desert – Surour
2.25 Judge 'N Jury – Markab
3.00 Kite Wood – Father Time
3.10 Going For Gold – Sam Sharp
3.35 Stimulation – Ouqba
64 lines @ £2 = £128
I lost an early post on here which seemed to save , but didn't . Ever since I just copy what I've written before saving , so I can paste if I need to send again .
Mike
A very difficult day indeed highlighted by the fact there was a rollover.
I think we did 'ok' with a few in the place pool. Big shout out to first time poster agacan who mentioned Mastery as his sole selection in the Leger and to rogsmith who noted down Duff as a danger in his race, crucially they were the only two guys who found the winner of those races so there may be a case to be argued for including a 'solitary' selection that nobody else has picked.
The Portland was very difficult, maybe we should include Pricewise as a 'ghost' selector
In terms of perms I think there is a case to be made for selecting a 'banker'.
I felt today that Poet's Voice and to a lesser extend Golden Desert were pretty good bets today. Golden Desert actually received the most top votes with 5 so that could have gone in as a 'banker'.
The next 'most selected' top runner was Judge 'N Jury with 4 votes along with Layali Al Andalus and Kite Wood with 4.
Those runners that received a single vote were….
Jet D'Eau
Barney McGrew – Johannes – Tony Tap – Everymanforhimself
Mastery
Mykingdomforahorse
Duff – Cat Junior
So two solitary selections won their race and there were 3 other placers so I think it is quite a good strategy to consider the most popular win selection as a banker and single selections in the perm. How that would have worked today I don't know but it's easy to try to backfit.
I will look back at the previous two weeks results if I can to see how a similar strategy would have played out.
All opinions and comments welcome.
Interesting to look back , but an obvious comment is that there may often not be a lone suggestion , and that one eccentric suggestion might exclude the winner – in Race 1 today one lone vote would have ousted our winner Poet's Voice .
As predicted , one effect of a vote – even with such a select electorate as today's – is that the consensus views usually tend to the 'safe' – our list today included favourites in all six races (joint in one case) .
Let's look at another possibility : races have been allocated to individuals to make two picks in , as follows (just an example…)
1 Dave
2 Bob
3 Brian
4 agacan
5 Sean
6 rogsmith
(Chris and I could also have figured in four of the races between us)
Apart from having four winners , this entry would have picked up today two winning place lines – netting £6,816 !
(Obviously , the races could have been given to the 'wrong' guys ; even so …)
Mike
Well after as Dave has said a great response to the syndicate idea it seems a shame only a few put selections up for the first proper trial.I cant think of a way where making the selections or final decisions would be best.The idea above in having a race to do seems a good one,how about that but put us in pairs.Then the two people could go through there race and put up two horses,the first choice and danger.Also perhaps we need to think about our selections because as Mike has said we had the favorites in all six races,this wouldnt help with the dividend.Anyway just a few thoughts,well done to us all today a very hard day as all saturdays are.
Mike you have a good point here…if 6 members are allocated a race each, then time and effort can be 100% into that single race. The scoop 6 is so hard to put full 100% concentration into on a Saturday morning…I do not like trying the night before as conditions and just the feel for things is not right…though if the allocations were choosen on the Friday, preparation on the Friday for just one race would be a great way forward!
If two other members could act as a overall selector and maybe split the 6 between them, say member one looks at the first 3 races and member two the second 3 races of the day.
This would vary between the members each week, though we would require 8 regular members who are willing to give their time up on a Saturday morning…though if a member who is selected is unable to post or fully focus on their allocated race or races then we would look to say reserve members!
This could be a way forward…as trying to find all 6 races with dangers aswell is a tough ask for everyone. Though 1 race I believe is not much of a difficult task!
Though wouldnt like to be the member for the Portland today lol
I think it's the vote system that concentrates selections on favourites ; obviously we don't want to avoid them on principle – they may all win – but if you look at today's picks you'll see that individually favourites figure less frequently : (no. of favs in each individual's picls) 1/2/3/3/4/4/5/6 .
The problem about any method involving combining views (even only two) is arriving at a decision except by a vote : we all weighed Poet's Voice against Silver Grecian in the first today : my view was that , though Poet's Voice had a very obvious chance , he would just go under to Silver Grecian coming late – I don't see how anyone would have persuaded me to change my opinion (even having seen the race , I might take the same view again ! SG was now well away , a bit off the pace early and had just too much to do in too short a time). Of course , on occasion I might be influenced to think again – but how often would you change your mind ? and why ?
Also , any collaboration tends to remove that element of individuality that , as we saw today , is often vital in picking up the less likely winners/places . (All just my opinion , obviously.)
Mike
Sean , our posts crossed .
I've always thought six races was just too much for us all to produce really considered views in – as I said in an earlier post , I myself certainly couldn't guarantee to go on doing that .
Another reason for wanting to avoid collaboration of any kind is that it leaves the individual free to make his own arrangements without having to make sure he's available at a certain time or meet any deadlines , except that he must put the selections for his race in by (say) midday Saturday .
It's also straightforward to administer ; if races are to be issued randomly to the pool of selectors , then that can be done a month or more at a time (Week 1, Race 1 : Brian ; Race 2 : Sean etc etc) ; then if anyone can't meet the commitment , they let Dave know and he can just nominate a substitute ; if someone fails to meet a deadline without notice (having dropped dead with shock when their placepot came up the day before) then Dave just substitutes selections of his own , straight from the ratings if time is short . I do think it's in everyone's interests to have a system which is simple to maintain ; inevitably the effort and enthusiasm that some have shown will tend to lessen with time … Anyone who wishes can be added to the selection pool (as long as we've got some sort of evidence that they've some idea what they're doing , on the lines of posting here etc.).
Of course , this system leaves us all exposed – someone may at some time miss the crucial penalty – but if we can't accept that with at least apparent good grace then we shouldn't be punting at all .
Mike
Some great points raised guys, cheers. I think it's been good the last few weeks and for us to continue to 'brainstorm' to come up with a selection method that is both simple to administer, gives us a decent chance of a payout and is also acceptable to members who are putting their money up front. Apart from selections, we also need to consider what the best perm is likely to be and how we decide on 'bankers' if we are going to go down that route.
Of course a lot of this depends on final funds available and it's easy to say in hindsight but when I was putting together the perm I felt really uncomfortable only having 2 selections in both the Portland and the handicap at 3.10 and yet having 2 selections in races where I felt there was a really strong single selection like Poet's Voice or Golden Desert for example.
I think we need to have either one banker in 2 separate perms or perhaps even have 2 bankers…for example….
Instead of having 2x2x2x2x2x2 for a total of 64 lines…
…we could have 1x3x2x2x2x2 for 48 lines and 2x2x1x3x2x2 for another 48 lines for a total of 96 lines…
Another more aggresive strategy is to have two bankers so 1x1x3x3x2x2 = 36 lines, 2x2x3x3x1x1 = 36 lines = 72 lines..
Of course we could have had all 7 selections in the Portland and the handicap at 3.10 and still only had one place in each race
However, that only highlights the fact that we need to have at least 3 selections in these more open races and sacrifice a selection in one of the 'easier' small-field/non hcap races.
As far as the selection process goes. Would you want to be the one guy who selected the sole losing selection when everyone else hits the other 5 race winners ? I would not feel comfortable with that sole responsibilty so here is what I suggest…
So what do you think, sounds complicated at first but we can fine tune in the next few weeks before launch….so who wants to be part of the first 'dirty dozen' team for next weekend ? I will abstain from picking and just concentrate on allocating races, collating final selections and setting up the syndicate for now.
Dave,
Is Derren Brown on the 'committee'. ? (hehe)
we need to focus our minds to the numbers we want…crowd willpower…get enough of us to will the number on we will win!! Believe, believe!!!
I think those ideas are pretty good Dave its a difficult decision but you have come up with a fairly good solution to it as far as im concerned.I wouldnt mind being involved in the selection process but im happy to go along with whats decided.Im a believer and im believing.
Some comments on Dave's last post :
Perms : there is no really satisfactory answer . When we bet in the pots in real life , we select a perm based on our relative certainty about our selections , after a scrutiny of all six races ; this is the ideal . Sometimes the biggest certainty is in a big handicap , and a small field (like our 3.10 on Saturday) may seem the trickiest race . I don't think any automatic system is a good idea , e.g. relating the number of selections to field-size or race-type ; nor do I think a fixed pattern (1 banker , 2 bankers , no bankers etc) is desirable . In fact , I don't really like bankers at all in the Scoop6 : in a placepot it's often easy to be confident something will be in the first three in maybe an easy race , but selecting win-only in a race picked for its difficulty , as in the Scoop6 , is another matter . Our two banker races on Saturday (on the total of votes , shortest spread of selections and number of people who named the winner) gave us one winner (Golden Desert) and one loser (Layali Al Andalus).
Now for Dave's ingenious attempt at killing the perm and selection birds with one stone : very neat at first sight , but I don't think it will work out anything like as conveniently ; I think a very high proportion of races will turn out to be 3-choice races , and not many bankers will be produced (and even fewer winning ones!) . To analyse all our Saturday selections would take an age , but to demonstrate my point I'll look at the first two races (the two most likely banker races anyway , as described above) , and at the selections of the first four people to post their views : four people , so 6 possible pairings ; the races could be allocated 2-1 or 1-2 , giving altogether 12 possible outcomes (to avoid confusion , I'll call '1 selection (main)' a 'single') . Here's the analysis :
Race 1
Clear bankers (single + main) : 2 (Layali twice- loser)
Bankers (single + danger) : 4 (Poet twice , Grecian , Layali : 2 winners , 2 losers)
3-selection outcomes : 6
(If you count single + danger as a 2-horse selection , then it includes the winner 3 times – but you are left with no winning bankers at all)
This was a 7-runner non-handicap – would we want three selections ?
How does this compare with the selections of the individual making two choices each ? Well , 3 of the 4 named the winner , the other finding no places .
(How many of those 4 named the winner as first choice ? Only 1. Since that was Dave , I'll comment that though he says he felt Poet's Voice was a strong banker , the system above is unlikely to have chosen it (33%).)
It seems to me the single-individual choices give the best result , with no problems about how to cope with 3 different selections 50% of the time .
Race 2
Clear bankers (single + main) : 2 (Desert twice – winner)
Bankers (single + danger) : 4 (Desert twice , Suruor twice – 2 winners , two losers)
3-selection outcomes : 6
(Again , counting single + danger as 2-selection race , then it includes the winner 3 times)
Once again , there's a 50% chance that we'll get 3 different selections.
Comparison with 2-choice selections of the individuals concerned : once again 3 of the 4 named the winner .
Again , the probability of getting it right seems to be clearly with the one-man two-choice method .
Problems : firstly , the odds in any race are are that you'll get three selections (even in a 7-runner race where 75% of individuals pick the winner in 2!) – how do you choose between the three (since we can't have three in all or even most races) ?
Secondly , the system may produce the banker where you don't really want it – taking the same 4 individuals as above , in the Portland they'd have produced a clear banker more often than in the first two races (3 times =25%)!
So somebody's got to be editing and overriding the results of the selection system suggested .
I've given other reasons elsewhere in favour of the one-man one-race system , and my analysis above has given me no reason to change my mind . As Dave says , no-one wants to be responsible for the only loser ; but as I said it's like stepping up in a penalty shoot-out ,except that the expectation of scoring is hundreds of times greater for a footballer ; getting it wrong is part of the game , as we all know .
So how would I solve the perm problem ? As I said at the beginning , no ideal solution , since no-one's scrutinised all six races ; but I do think the nearest to that is for someone to at least roughly survey the races on a given day and make a decision about the perm pattern ; the obvious person , of course , is Dave , whose ratings etc. , as well as the fact that he's involved full-time with racing , mean that he's best equipped to make a rapid assessment of all six races ; I personally would be quite prepared for him to make that decision , perhaps quite late in the day . I don't think it would be helpful if he had to make the decision before allocating races ; if (my preference) we went for a one-man one-race system , then I think we should make three picks in our race : a main choice , a next-best and a danger (it might be helpful if we say if our main choice seems strong enough to be a banker ,etc.) . Dave will stick to the order of our suggestions , using whatever number he's decided is best for our perm .
Enough for now .
Mike
Hi Mike
Some good points raised there again, there are as many possible option as there are Scoop6 perm combinations
We have only 2 weeks remaining before 'launch' to get this right so I suggest we can try both methods out over the next few weeks.
I would still like to try the method I first suggested as I feel having two completely different people looking at a race will either help in determining the final selections as well as the final perm and will give us a better chance of getting a perm landed. For example, using the one person per race idea, if Bob or rogsmith (sorry guys) had been allocated the first race as their sole race we would have gone out in the first leg as their 'banker' would have been Layali Al Andalus followed by either Silver Grecian or Viscount Nelson as their 'danger'.
However, if either one of them had just picked their main choice Layali Al Andalus as their banker for that one race and been paired with either myself, seanstar, chris or brian picking a main and a danger as our 'secondary' race then we would surely have selected Poet's Choice as a 2nd selection as these 4 guys either already had Layali Al Andalus selected or at least had Poet's Choice as their main or danger iin that race.
Yes, you could just as easily land up with 3 different selections in that race but if one person is picking 3 different selections you are still in that same boat, at least this way you can get another person's viewpoint on that race which I think is vital and it can ultimatelly make it easier to decide which races to trim down to just 2 selections. An additional problem with someone only being allocated one race to study with picking say a main, next best and danger is how do I determine which race should contain the 2 or 3 selections or banker if we are going to go down that route ?
Well, anyway all comments are appreciated and we can only fine tune over the coming weeks to arrive at a decent method of selection which is both easy for everyone to handle selecting and easy to administer with an hour or so to go before the first race.
I think maybe I didn't make my point on this very clearly . Basically , I meant that we proceed on the assumption that we're perming two selections in each race ; however , each individual picks a third choice in case the decision is made to make that a 3-selection race ; he also has to be prepared for only his first selection to be entered if the decision is made that that race should be a banker .
How are these decisions to be made ? On Saturday , Dave , you expressed the view (justified by the event) that Poet's Voice looked like a banker and the Portland and the 3.10 looked like 3-choice races – how did you make that judgement ? You were not led to it by the votes of the rest of us : Poet's Voice did not receive most points in its race , and did not even score as highly as Judge 'N Jury in the Portland ! I cannot see that the main vote with the main + danger of just two individuals , which will result in a total of either 2 or 3 selections , will be of any use at all in deciding whether its a 2 or 3-selection race ; as a guide to bankers , it would seem disastrous (see below) ;also , you are likely to find at least three races with 3 different selections , which you will have to find a means of reducing , since we can't afford 3 or more legs of 3 ;in other words , the system seems at best unhelpful , and leaves you with even more 'editorial' decisions to make . Selecting the right perm can never be more than an educated guess ; it's best made by an individual taking a comparative overview of all the races (which presumably led you to your view expressed above) ; and I simply suggest that's the way it's done every week (and you're the man to do it!).
bankers : I take the example you give in your own post – race 1 , either Bob or rogsmiths main with both selections of either you , seanstar , chris or brian (8 possible pairs) :
if both main selections being the same = banker , then this would have produced 4 bankers – all Layalus.
if a main selection plus a danger = banker , then this would produce another two bankers – all Layalus .
Only if , despite all this , you take the races as 2-selection races does Poet get a look-in . But if two people picking the same main doesn't qualify as a banker , then I don't see how the process could ever lead to a banker decision .
Mike
Mike, although I didn't state it, I was king of agreeing with you that initially the 'banker' route may not be the way to go for us right now, although I know Nevison and a few of the other syndicates do this so it's something we should consider for the future, if not initially
My comments were based purely on us selecting 2 in each race and having an option of 3 in the more difficult races. Just because of the number of selections I feel that we would have had 3 selections in either the Portland or the 3.10 (or both) simply because they were the only 2 races where we all had largely different opinions, even if Judge N Jury was popular with a lot of us, I still would have thrown in 3 just because of the large field size and competitive nature of the race and also for the 3.10. It's also worth pointing out that the 3.10 had 2 non-runners that had been selected by us and we need to think of a way of dealing with this as well.
You will have to forgive me because quite often I am skimming posts last thing at night after a busy day crunching numbers and doing other things so I probably don't pay as much attention as I should do to posts !
As you stated “Basically , I meant that we proceed on the assumption that we're perming two selections in each race ; however , each individual picks a third choice in case the decision is made to make that a 3-selection race ; he also has to be prepared for only his first selection to be entered if the decision is made that that race should be a banker .“
That is fine, I have no problem perming 2 in each race but ultimately how do I best decide on which race should be a 3-selection race or even a banker race if everyone is picking 3 in each race ?
In fact the more I think about it, if one person is primarily focusing on studying just one race, why are they coming up with a 'next best' and a 'danger'. Surely, if you are just studying one race very closely then you should be arriving at one solitary selection. If everyone did this we would have a very easy 1 perm of one horse in each race for a 2 quid stake
However, if everyone selected 3 horses in each race it is ultimately left to myself to arrive at a decision, often at the last minute, as to which race should be a 2-perm, which should be a 3-perm race etc etc and I have to admit I would rather part of that decision was taken away from me such is the busy nature of my Saturday's in general.
I think if 6 of us were to study 1 race in absolute detail to arrive at 1 selection and then have a secondary race to study for a 1-2 selection then ultimately it will make my decision process a bit easier even if we still have 3 different selections in one race although I think it's unlikely that will be the case for all 6 races. Quite often I can study a race in minute detail for hours on end and just get it completely wrong whereas another race I may take 10mins or put down more to hunch than form analysis and it works out better.
However, I am willing to give your plan a shot this weekend and see how we go and then maybe we can try my suggestion next weekend before go-live.
In fact I think it is a good idea if you yourself run it for this weekend, allocate the races etc, gather the votes and produce the perm to get a feel for what is involved and the final decision making process ? I would appreciate someone stepping into my shoes for a week as it may help in the final decision making process that we use going forward and you may have some other ideas/suggestions that you may not realise in the 'heat of battle' so to speak. Only if you are willing to take it on board for a week of course ?
Cheers again Mike and co…as ever, am interested in everyones input on methods/picks etc.
Dave
P.S. If anyone who has contributed so far is NOT available to study 1 race on Saturday then please let me know.
First things first – I'm quite happy to do the bit of admin my scheme involves this weekend , provided everyone agrees of course (though in general Dave's the man for the job – I just hope that this week there's no AW , which I never look at , or NH , since I'm an old-fashioned chap who thinks there's a season for everything ; or at least I hope that I don't have to make any decisions about them) . I must emphasise , though , that it'd be great if everyone , panel included , could continue to post their selections for all six races , with as much reasoning as they can find time for , so that everyone can get an idea how alternative methods such as a vote , 1+2 , etc. might have worked . I'm not trying to win an argument , just to help find the best way of maximising our chances ; nothing anyway is proved by one week , but if I find unexpected difficulties or downsides then I'll say so .
So (if agreed) this is how it'll go : we will have a panel of six people ; each person looks in depth at one race ; the assumption will be that we perm two selections in each race , but each panellist will make three selections : this is so that , if the decision is taken to have a 3-choice leg , all 3 choices are made by the same selector (for me , an important element in this way of doing things) ; also if there is a non-runner for a 2-choice leg , then I will automatically take the selector's third choice . I will never override a panellist's selections , though as administrator I may decide that one race has to be a banker , in which case I take only the panellist's first suggestion .
Selections of panellists can simply be posted in the forum as usual.
There has to be a deadline for panellists to post the selections in their race : I'll say 12.00 midday on Saturday . The administrator , whether Dave or anyone else , probably has many things to do ; he may have selection decisions to make if there are a number of non-runners , but even if the admin turns out to be very straightforward I don't think we should tie him down to too limited a time-slot .
I will put the bet on (in this case , just post it !) about ten minutes before the first race : I think it best to wait as long as possible in case of late non-runners (I prefer to make an alternative selection rather than have the bet automatically run onto the favourite) or changes of going , etc.
In writing up their selections , panellists may if they wish nominate (in order) four or five choices , in case of multiple non-runners (in the unlikely event of 2 or more NRs in a race coinciding with the panellists's selections , if he hasn't made enough reserve choices , then the administrator , in this case me , will make the necessary additional selection(s) – not ideal !) . If panellists feel able to comment on the 'difficulty ratiing' of their race , this could be helpful – occasionally , for example , you might feel your first selection is so strong that you think it might be worth a banker , or you might feel that , like the Portland , your race is particularly tricky , with very little to choose between a dozen runners , and you'd need three goes to have much chance of finding the winner . Also , please give conditional selections if you think it helpful , e.g. if the weather's uncertain , you may want to nominate B as your second choice , with the proviso that if the heavens open at lunchtime and the going turns sloppy , you'd like C to become your second choice instead . The idea is to ensure that as far as possible one individual has complete control over selections for his race .
Last Saturday I think we had 8 people posting selections . The panel would normally rotate through these 8 people (plus anyone else who asks to be included); but since this is only a one-off , I hope I will offend no-one if I nominate this time myself (!) and the people who have given the fullest write-ups , Dave (if he's willing to take one race) , Brian , seanstar , rogsmith, and bob – apologies , Chris and agacan , and anyone I've ignored from previous weeks – I hope you'll still post all your selections and be ready to come in if any of the six named can't/doesn't want to participate .
I will allocate the races to individual panellists (simply as 1st race , 2nd race etc.) before we know what races they'll actually be (i.e. I don't want to make any attempt to match people to races) , so that will probably be sometime on Thursday , posted on the forum , giving anyone who doesn't want to take part time to say so ; I shall make the allocation by lot (you'll just have to trust me on that) .
If you can think of anything I've forgotten , please help !
All the above , of course , assumes that people are willing to give the idea a go ; if that turns out not to be the case , then back to Dave !
If we do go ahead , then anything further , from the race allocation onwards , I'll put in a new thread entitled 'Scoop6 19th Sep' .
Mike
PS There seems to be a bit of a bug somewhere – this post too disappeared when I saved it ; than God I'd remembered to copy it first .
Yes, there was an ulterior motive as well for me nominating you as admin this weekend as my broadband is switching over from BT to O2…on Saturday(!) believe it or not, so I can't guarantee that I will have the full access all setup depending on what time they 'pull the plug' and how quickly I can set it all up so this will help a lot…thanks. If it's down I will though find a way to post my selections for my race (and others) on Saturday so don't worry about that
The Scoop6 races I have found are usually first updated on the Tote blog on Thu afternoon sometime…http://www.totesportblog.com/
That all sounds pretty good Mike. I hope we can get a decent idea of the best way forward and with everyone posting 3 selections in each race it will also give us an idea of how other strategies might have performed. I'm actually leaving the racing alone myself this week until Friday so I am going to start taking a look at this weekend's races over the next few days and will of course take a more detailed look at my race from Friday – I have a 'rough' idea of what races might make up the Scoop6, usually the ones on CH4…http://www.racingpost.co.uk/c4/
Anyway, look forward to seeing the allocations and reading people's opinions. As Mike says, if as many people as possible post up their views then that would be great as we do need to find a regular panel of around 8 people willing to put in the study and be on standby on a week-by-week basis for the 8 weeks between Oct 3rd and Nov 21st.
I've noticed there does seem to be an issue with large posts being lost sometimes, this is still a beta of this version of the forum but they have released a full version which I will install later tonight so fingers crossed that will iron out any problems.
Cheers
Dave