Lingfield AW Stats Analysis
I took a look at some trainer and draw stats for Lingfield going back the last 5 years, so with a few races rated there on Tuesday thought it would be worth a closer look.
Now you can read all the data below and it should be able to help in picking winners at Lingfield over the winter months. It’s a very quick method when used on conjunction with the ratings, sire stats etc.
One that stands out for me on Tuesday using the info below is the Jeff Pearce runner Fantasy Ride in the 5.00 at Lingfield in stall 4. The trainer clearly does well with his runners here with a 26.67% s/r in October and an overall record at Lingfield of 14.29%, the best s/r of the trainers in the race on Tuesday. He is also ridden by the excellent Simon Pearce who is right up there with the very best amateur jockeys and well worth his 5lb claim. The sire Bahhare has the 2nd best strike-rated of 13%+ with his progeny on the all-weather so all this points to a big run.
First of all, I took a look at the record of each stall in races containing a minimum of 8 runners. The first thing that struck me was how poor a record stall 1 has at most distances. ‘In general’ the best stalls to be in are between 3 and 8. The %’s generally start off small, then rise and fall again the higher you get, apart from the high stall 10 over 5f which has a freakishly high strike rated of 15%+ so keep an eye on how Walter Swinburn’s Master Lightfoot runs in the 5f sprint at 4.30 on Tuesday from stall 10.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | |
| 1 | Draw | 5f | 6f | 7f | 8f | 10f | 12f | All |
| 2 | 1 | 7.02% | 7.84% | 7.76% | 7.65% | 6.15% | 5.05% | 6.91% |
| 3 | 2 | 9.52% | 11.35% | 5.49% | 8.79% | 8.63% | 8.95% | 8.79% |
| 4 | 3 | 12.80% | 11.14% | 8.33% | 8.97% | 8.20% | 10.88% | 10.06% |
| 5 | 4 | 11.90% | 11.53% | 7.81% | 9.14% | 12.30% | 10.82% | 10.58% |
| 6 | 5 | 17.47% | 7.20% | 8.17% | 9.37% | 9.59% | 9.33% | 10.19% |
| 7 | 6 | 9.41% | 10.13% | 10.47% | 13.13% | 9.35% | 12.04% | 10.76% |
| 8 | 7 | 9.88% | 9.14% | 10.34% | 12.79% | 11.02% | 9.57% | 10.46% |
| 9 | 8 | 7.78% | 11.62% | 11.69% | 7.32% | 8.16% | 9.84% | 9.40% |
| 10 | 9 | 9.03% | 8.77% | 9.43% | 9.51% | 10.12% | 8.82% | 9.28% |
| 11 | 10 | 15.13% | 9.34% | 9.05% | 8.14% | 8.63% | 7.25% | 9.59% |
| 12 | 11 | 8.03% | 8.14% | 6.38% | 8.06% | 7.89% | 7.70% | |
| 13 | 12 | 7.92% | 8.42% | 10.12% | 6.49% | 7.29% | 8.05% | |
| 14 | 13 | 7.79% | 5.64% | 8.54% | 7.32% | |||
| 15 | 14 | 6.70% | 6.96% | 8.82% | 7.50% | |||
| 16 | 15 | 3.77% | 3.77% | |||||
| 17 | 16 | 2.04% | 2.04% |
I then took a look at the trainers that have a decent strike-rate between Oct and March and broke it down by month. I insisted on a minimum 10 wins in the last 5 years. W J Knight stands at the top in % terms. Over the next 3 months the guys to watch are Barry Hills, Saeed Bin Suroor, Jeff Pearce and Jeremy Noseda along with Knight of course. Gary Moore has a lot of runners and winners on the all-weather but relatively low strike-rate as a result but still worth watching, especially at the start of the year. Similar remarks apply to Kevin Ryan, Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon and John Best. The last 3 all have runners there on Tuesday.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | |
| 1 | trainer name | Oct% | Win | Nov% | Win | Dec% | Win | Jan% | Win | Feb% | Win | Mar% | Win | Total% | Win |
| 2 | W J Knight | 23.08% | 3 | 28.57% | 2 | 33.33% | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 14.29% | 1 | 39.85% | 13 | ||
| 3 | B W Hills | 12.90% | 4 | 10.00% | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 15.00% | 3 | 34.48% | 10 | ||||
| 4 | Tom Dascombe | 20.00% | 1 | 22.22% | 2 | 31.25% | 5 | 23.53% | 4 | 33.33% | 2 | 33.33% | 4 | 27.28% | 18 |
| 5 | M P Tregoning | 7.14% | 2 | 12.50% | 2 | 40.00% | 2 | 45.45% | 5 | 33.33% | 6 | 16.67% | 2 | 25.85% | 19 |
| 6 | M J Attwater | 11.11% | 1 | 18.18% | 2 | 11.76% | 2 | 66.67% | 4 | 10.53% | 2 | 23.65% | 11 | ||
| 7 | J Noseda | 25.00% | 8 | 25.00% | 3 | 30.00% | 3 | 16.67% | 3 | 30.43% | 7 | 12.50% | 1 | 23.27% | 25 |
| 8 | J H M Gosden | 14.71% | 5 | 3.13% | 1 | 50.00% | 5 | 22.61% | 11 | ||||||
| 9 | T G Mills | 0.00% | 18.18% | 2 | 18.18% | 2 | 32.26% | 10 | 7.14% | 2 | 31.82% | 7 | 21.52% | 23 | |
| 10 | M Wigham | 0.00% | 33.33% | 2 | 7.69% | 1 | 26.67% | 4 | 15.79% | 3 | 20.87% | 10 | |||
| 11 | Miss J Feilden | 16.67% | 1 | 28.57% | 2 | 29.41% | 5 | 11.11% | 1 | 15.38% | 2 | 20.23% | 11 | ||
| 12 | K A Ryan | 15.38% | 2 | 15.00% | 3 | 20.00% | 4 | 40.74% | 11 | 7.32% | 3 | 21.21% | 7 | 19.94% | 30 |
| 13 | P W Chapple-Hyam | 0.00% | 12.50% | 1 | 8.33% | 1 | 25.00% | 3 | 35.71% | 5 | 14.29% | 1 | 19.17% | 11 | |
| 14 | P J Makin | 10.00% | 3 | 35.00% | 7 | 15.00% | 3 | 3.70% | 1 | 13.33% | 2 | 35.71% | 5 | 18.79% | 21 |
| 15 | M A Jarvis | 25.00% | 7 | 5.56% | 1 | 23.53% | 4 | 16.67% | 4 | 20.00% | 3 | 20.00% | 2 | 18.46% | 21 |
| 16 | P F I Cole | 6.25% | 2 | 20.83% | 5 | 17.65% | 3 | 23.08% | 3 | 12.50% | 1 | 30.00% | 3 | 18.38% | 17 |
| 17 | J Pearce | 26.67% | 4 | 21.05% | 4 | 25.00% | 5 | 16.67% | 3 | 7.32% | 3 | 11.11% | 2 | 17.97% | 21 |
| 18 | S Kirk | 13.64% | 3 | 11.11% | 2 | 13.33% | 4 | 10.00% | 2 | 26.32% | 5 | 33.33% | 4 | 17.95% | 20 |
| 19 | W J Haggas | 13.64% | 3 | 19.05% | 4 | 15.38% | 2 | 28.57% | 4 | 12.50% | 2 | 17.83% | 15 | ||
| 20 | P S McEntee | 14.29% | 1 | 37.50% | 3 | 11.54% | 3 | 13.79% | 4 | 11.76% | 2 | 17.78% | 13 | ||
| 21 | Sir Mark Prescott | 17.24% | 5 | 11.11% | 1 | 26.09% | 6 | 20.00% | 3 | 14.29% | 1 | 17.75% | 16 | ||
| 22 | G A Butler | 15.79% | 3 | 11.54% | 3 | 33.33% | 4 | 21.74% | 5 | 19.05% | 4 | 4.76% | 1 | 17.70% | 20 |
| 23 | D Shaw | 50.00% | 1 | 13.79% | 4 | 13.33% | 6 | 3.33% | 1 | 9.09% | 6 | 14.63% | 6 | 17.36% | 24 |
| 24 | A J McCabe | 21.43% | 3 | 14.29% | 2 | 21.43% | 3 | 11.11% | 2 | 17.65% | 3 | 16.67% | 1 | 17.09% | 14 |
| 25 | J A Osborne | 10.00% | 2 | 33.33% | 1 | 6.06% | 2 | 18.87% | 10 | 15.15% | 5 | 16.68% | 20 |
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | |
| 26 | trainer name | Oct% | Win | Nov% | Win | Dec% | Win | Jan% | Win | Feb% | Win | Mar% | Win | Total% | Win |
| 27 | C F Wall | 23.08% | 3 | 20.00% | 1 | 20.00% | 1 | 18.75% | 3 | 10.53% | 2 | 7.14% | 1 | 16.58% | 11 |
| 28 | C R Dore | 10.00% | 1 | 10.00% | 1 | 15.00% | 3 | 19.23% | 5 | 27.78% | 5 | 16.40% | 15 | ||
| 29 | B J Meehan | 19.05% | 8 | 25.00% | 1 | 10.00% | 2 | 12.50% | 1 | 12.50% | 1 | 15.81% | 13 | ||
| 30 | M Johnston | 5.26% | 2 | 13.79% | 4 | 13.79% | 4 | 17.39% | 8 | 18.75% | 9 | 24.56% | 14 | 15.59% | 41 |
| 31 | C A Dwyer | 0.00% | 25.00% | 1 | 12.50% | 1 | 21.43% | 3 | 13.51% | 5 | 3.85% | 1 | 15.26% | 11 | |
| 32 | J S Moore | 8.33% | 2 | 18.75% | 3 | 13.64% | 3 | 17.50% | 7 | 11.76% | 4 | 19.61% | 10 | 14.93% | 29 |
| 33 | C E Brittain | 5.00% | 1 | 17.39% | 4 | 9.09% | 1 | 11.76% | 2 | 27.27% | 9 | 18.87% | 10 | 14.90% | 27 |
| 34 | E A L Dunlop | 18.75% | 6 | 18.18% | 4 | 20.00% | 1 | 9.09% | 1 | 9.52% | 2 | 10.53% | 2 | 14.35% | 16 |
| 35 | K R Burke | 0.00% | 26.09% | 6 | 4.35% | 1 | 17.24% | 5 | 8.70% | 4 | 10.00% | 3 | 13.27% | 19 | |
| 36 | Stef Liddiard | 0.00% | 20.00% | 2 | 10.00% | 2 | 9.52% | 2 | 7.41% | 2 | 18.18% | 2 | 13.02% | 10 | |
| 37 | G L Moore | 10.42% | 5 | 6.52% | 3 | 18.31% | 13 | 10.26% | 12 | 16.82% | 18 | 13.75% | 11 | 12.68% | 62 |
| 38 | D R C Elsworth | 5.00% | 1 | 14.63% | 6 | 16.67% | 6 | 9.09% | 5 | 13.16% | 5 | 17.39% | 4 | 12.66% | 27 |
| 39 | A M Balding | 15.00% | 3 | 13.33% | 2 | 6.67% | 1 | 17.50% | 7 | 11.11% | 4 | 11.11% | 3 | 12.45% | 20 |
| 40 | R Hannon | 5.00% | 4 | 12.09% | 11 | 17.54% | 10 | 12.31% | 8 | 8.33% | 4 | 18.75% | 15 | 12.34% | 52 |
| 41 | J Akehurst | 0.00% | 7.14% | 2 | 10.87% | 5 | 5.00% | 2 | 18.18% | 6 | 19.23% | 5 | 12.09% | 20 | |
| 42 | C A Cyzer | 9.52% | 2 | 7.14% | 1 | 20.00% | 4 | 19.23% | 5 | 10.71% | 3 | 3.03% | 1 | 11.61% | 16 |
| 43 | J R Jenkins | 20.00% | 3 | 7.69% | 1 | 10.00% | 3 | 10.00% | 3 | 11.76% | 4 | 9.52% | 2 | 11.50% | 16 |
| 44 | J R Best | 6.12% | 3 | 6.38% | 3 | 15.52% | 9 | 11.11% | 10 | 14.29% | 10 | 13.33% | 8 | 11.13% | 43 |
| 45 | D K Ivory | 15.00% | 3 | 10.00% | 2 | 9.68% | 3 | 2.70% | 1 | 10.53% | 6 | 18.75% | 6 | 11.11% | 21 |
| 46 | Saeed Bin Suroor | 27.78% | 10 | 37.50% | 3 | 10.88% | 13 | ||||||||
| 47 | Mrs A J Perrett | 3.13% | 1 | 5.00% | 1 | 6.67% | 1 | 6.67% | 1 | 16.67% | 4 | 26.67% | 4 | 10.80% | 12 |
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About This Post
Bloody hell Dave great stuff as usual.I wish i had time to do that sort of thing.I cant even get to have a proper look at your ratings as my computer at work dosnt have excel and you wouldnt believe how old it is.Anyway grest stuff,cheers mate.
That is a sterling post if ever there was one. Wish I had the time to use the info instead of being buried in work most of the time and catching the occasional glimpse of what's happening in here.
Well Done Dave
Godolphin show once again why they are the ones to follow at Lingfield at this time of year as Frankie lands a nice 4-timer for them.
November looks a tasty % aswell…;)
Get in Fairy Flight, best trainer strike-rate by some way for WJ Knight in the race and scoots in in the 12.10 at 14/1 !!