The Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the US Triple Crown and it takes place at Belmont Park on Saturday 6th June. Unusually for US racing, the Belmont Stakes is run over 1M 4F, a trip rarely seen in American dirt racing. This year’s renewal sees American Pharoah, who has won the Kentucky Derby & Preakness, look to become the first horse since Affirmed (1978) to win the US Triple Crown. California Chrome fell short last year when 4th in this in 2014.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age

Race for 3yos

 

Gender

The only 2 female runners to line up in this in past 10 years have been Rags To Riches, 1st in 2007, after having won the Kentucky Oaks on her previous start, and Unlimited Budget, 6th in 2013.

Rags To Riches, in 2007, was the first female winner of the race since 1905.

Since 1980 the 6 fillies to run this have finished 2nd-6th-3rd-7th-1st-6th

 

Breeding

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were bred in Kentucky

8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that won a grade 1 over 1M 1F+

7 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in first 3 in Haskell, Belmont and/or BC Classic

 

Dosage Profile

Composite Total Dosage Points of last 10 winners is 20.6

Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 2.49

Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.72

 

Recent Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 4 to 8 times

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

6 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in the Kentucky Derby)

10 of 10 winners had last run in past 40 days

9 of 10 winners won over 1M or further (exception had won just a maiden but was a neck 2nd in 1M 1F grade 1)

4 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (other 6 had not won a graded stakes)

6 of 10 winners had won or placed on all course starts (3 others having first run at Belmont)

7 of 10 winners had previously won at Saratoga, Churchills Downs or Gulfstream

 

Triple Crown Races

Preakness winner (American Pharoah): 129524 (1-2-6)

Kentucky Derby winner (American Pharoah): 793634 (0-2-6)

5 of 10 winners ran in Kentucky Derby, finishing 34670

1 of 10 winners ran in Preakness, finishing 1st

4 of 5 winners that ran in Kentucky Derby were held up early and stayed on well up the straight at Churchill Downs (exception led at fast pace on sloppy & faded badly)

Only 1 of last 10 winners had contested both the Kentucky Derby & Preakness prior to winning this.

Since 2000, 5 horses have come to Belmont with the Kentucky Derby and Preakness under their belts. They were War Emblem 8th in 2002, Funny Cide 3rd in 2003, Smarty Jones 2nd in 2004, Big Brown PU in 2008 & California Chrome 4th in 2014.

Since 1991 seven horses have won the Belmont Stakes without having run in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. All 7 finished in first 2 in a race at Pimlico (Barbaro or Federico Tesio Stakes) or Belmont (Peter Pan or Dwyer Stakes) in May on previous start.

 

2yo Races

Highest placed finisher from Breeders Cup Juvenile: 1563213 (2-2-7)

Highest placed finisher from previous year's Champagne Stakes: 107100 (2-0-6)

Breeders Futurity winner (Carpe Diem): 7 (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Champagne Stakes, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile, finishing 22

 

3yo Races

Gotham Stakes winner (Samraat):  28 (0-1-2)

Peter Pan Stakes winner (Tonalist): 9340 (0-1-4)

Withers Stakes winner (Samraat): 5 (0-0-1)

Santa Anita Derby winner (California Chrome): 3 (0-0-1)

Federico Tesio Stakes winner (Kid Cruz): 8 (0-0-1)

Wood Memorial Stakes winner (Wicked Strong): 86 (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in Florida Derby, finishing 93

2 of 10 winners ran in Arkansas Derby, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in Fountain Of Youth, finishing 71

2 of 10 winners ran in Lousiana Derby, finishing 37

2 of 10 winners ran in Risen Star Stakes, finishing 43

 

Trainers

Todd Pletcher (2-6-14) has won this twice (2007 & 2013) in past 10 years and has seen 8 of his 14 representatives finish in the money.

Nick Zito (1-3-11) trained 1st & 3rd in 2004 and 2008 and also runner-up in 2005 & 2010.

Kiaran McLaughlin (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2006.

Dale Romans (0-3-5) has seen 3 of his 5 runners makes the places.

Bob Baffert (0-1-3) trained the runner-up in 2012.

 

Price

The 1M 4F trip for the Belmont is not a normal trip in the USA and longer prices have done better with 6 of last 7 winners going off at 9/1 or bigger and 8 of 12 placed finishers in last 4 runnings were priced 9/1+.

Favourites (1-3-10) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 7.85.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Has a Dosage Index of approximately 2.49

Has a Centre Of Distribution of approximately 0.72

Bred in Kentucky and sired by a grade 1 winner over 1M 1F+

Had 4 to 8 career starts

Run 2 to 5 times in 2015

Finished in first 2 last time (or unplaced in Kentucky Derby)

Won over 1M ½F or further

Won or placed on all course starts (or having first run at Belmont)

Won at Saratoga, Churchill Downs or Gulfstream Park

Finished well up the straight in the Kentucky Derby

Ran in only one Triple Crown race this year or

Finished in first 2 in Barbaro Stakes or a Belmont grade 2 last time

Finished in first 2 in Breeders Cup Juvenile and/or Champagne Stakes as a 2yo

Finished in first 3 in Risen Star, Louisiana, Arkansas or Florida Derby

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nick Zito or Dale Romans

Priced 9/1 or bigger

Carl's Analysis

Short and sweet
MADEFROMLUCKY and KEEN ICE
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