For those who signup to FormBet either on a Saturday for 1 day for £2, 7 days for £10 or 30 days for £30 you also get access to my Saturday (and big meeting) Best Bets. These are selective VALUE bets picked out, usually from the big televised races, where I believe the ratings and stats have flagged a big-priced contender.
Now, this can mean there are long losing streaks but the profit line remains straight up 45-degree'ish. The strike rate is under 12% since May 2012 but people place far too much emphasis on “number of winners”, “high strike-rate” when they should be focusing on profit and Return On Investment (ROI) ie. getting more bang for your bucks ! Backing favourites blindly will only see you broke or tread water for long periods of time.
The full Best Bets results spreadsheet since May 2012 can be downloaded at the bottom of this post. So far this jumps season there have been just 36 bets provided with 8 wins, 6 placers, +177pts profit with a 246% ROI at BSP (less 5% Commission) – if you can find a better ROI than that this jumps season please do let me know.
Since May 2012 the profits there have been +319pts profit generated with a 27% ROI which is still better than most out there over that time period…and all bets are recorded, winners and losers…unlike some of these ‘dodgy' Twitter tipsters out there..and there are a lot, some try to signup and post my top-rated, some just copy the Best Bets but it's part and parcel of being successful at this game which I have been involved in for the best part of 20 years now ! Oh also beware of a shoddy outfit called RTR (rapingtheraces) who have tried to copy my formula and pass on 2nd-hand ratings as their own work – they are copycats, never post proof that they actually back their own selections and only want to sell you ratings heavily based around the market – what's the point of that ?
I also back my own bets with my own money and focus on PROFIT, not number of winners, which is over-rated. I have my own methods of getting on with bookmakers and I charge for the ratings because it means I can slip under the Premium charge radar on Betfair without worrying too much.
Of course the Best Bets are ‘spoonfed' tips for those who perhaps just want a few bets on a Saturday at value prices and to achieve long-term profits, note the words LONG TERM. It takes discipline, patience and sensible staking to stick with such a value-based strategy but it's shown me profits pretty much every year for the last 11 years. Sure I had a poor Cheltenham and end of flat season this year, partly due to bad luck and some down to stupidity but over time probably around £1/4 million profit in my lifetime…much of it spent 🙂
However, the service is not just a ‘tipping' service and I don't class myself as a ‘tipster'. The real strength and primary function of the service comes from the ratings data and stats themselves. The main goal should be to educate YOURSELF so that you can find your own value bets each day using the ratings data, pretty much as I do…teach a man to fish and all that. The real goal with the FormBet Premium service is for you to be proficient at analysing data and making sensible betting decisions. There are glossier products out there that give you the feeling of finding your own systems and data but fact is that very few ‘systems' actually work over time and all the data you could possibly want to research is already displayed on the ratings sheet. The difference is that it's easy to navigate race to race in one handy Excel sheet (there is also a mobile PDF version) and it won't cost you hundreds of pounds in fees and subscriptions each month that you will need to recoup before even thinking of profit. Toys are for kids at the end of the day, profit comes from thorough and relevant data, which you get at a value price with as much help and advice I can give 🙂
So let's cover some of my bets from my TEST accounts the last few months, many of which were stats-based and a lot posted pre-race via Twitter @formbet – I do bet these for much larger stakes personally and have cleared a great deal of profit this jumps and winter all-weather season so far over the last few months. I want to give you an idea of how much profit you can get for simple £5 or £10 bets so I'll post up my more realistic Test account bets and profits that anyone can achieve. These bets do include my occasional lays, bets, trades etc.
HENNESSY GOLD CUP
24.83 was a decent enough price but it wasn't my main fancy in the race if I am honest. That was Opening Batsman who has really disappointed since. However, the ratings made backing both a no-brainer and is something you should get into the habit of doing in the big, competitive handicaps. Throwing one dart is rarely enough as it needs to hit the bullseye with one try. If you can see the FBR (Form Rating) actually had TRIOLO D'ALENE Top-Rated and very decent value – there was also the fact this was a Henderson/Geraghty combo and the price was just wrong. It worked out pretty well in the end 🙂
Another big Saturday handicap and another strong POWer rated runner in THERE'S NO PANIC who was also FBR1-rated – told you that rating was the bomb as based on FBR it should have been closer to 4.58 BSP and not 13.5+ – The key is to get a balance of ratings strength and to achieve a value price. The V%'s for both POW and FBR give an indication of how much value you are getting. The MSR1 (Master Speed Rating) was the icing on the cake here as was the fact this was a Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob runner.
SUPER XMAS XTRAVAGANZA
FormBet subscribers had an excellent Xmas – paid for thanks to a few choice bets and solid ratings that performed exceptionally well. Here are a handful of them below.
Although it was sad to see Sprinter Sacre pull up it did make me laught by the reaction to a few on Twitter to my assertion that I had the winner top-rated. Yes, it may have been fortuitous, we shall never really know for sure. The fact is that although Sprinter Sacre was clear top on MY form, speed and most other ‘traditional' measurements BUT = SIRE DE GRUGY was top on the main POW rating and still value based on form. He also had an extremely significant Sire statistic to back that up. His sire My Risk had a 33.33% SR with a 1.86 AE and 1.4% Chi with his progeny when they went right-handed. Compared that to the 15% strike-rate and 0.8 AE for Sprinter Sacre and it could be argued the winner was better suited to the conditions than the odds-on favourite. Of course there was also the fact there had been rumours about Sprinter Sacre and it was his first race after 248 days against a race-fit, Grade 1 winning rival – the question should not have been why was Sire De Grugy top-rated but at what price you would consider backing him ? It's clear from the ratings and was a fairly obvious play not just in hindsight but pre-race based on the ratings above…not enough people look beyond the obvious and let's hope that continues 😉
As we can see above AWAYWITHTHEGREYS was only 3rd on the main POW rating and 4th on the FBR – so why bet it ? Well…price, value and a strong backup stat that's why. The Top-2 were underpriced in my eyes, so there was some each-way value here. Subscribers were on early doors at 16/1 each-way but I also fired it in on my Test bot and it was matched at 13.5. The SGO (Sire Going Stat) indicated it's Sire's progeny had a 22.35% Strike-Rate with a 1.45 AE and 3.8% Chi. This basically means it's a stat that is not down to chance and there is some statistical significance behind it. If you note it was Heavy going at Chepstow so this was a key stat and gave additional confirmation. You may hear other ratings providers go on about only having ‘one rating' – that is a weakness…to rely on just one rating with no other means of confirmation is foolhardy and less profitable to me eyes…strength comes from having some backup using various pieces of the puzzle.
The FormBet Top-Rated does particularly well in Group 1 and Grade 1 contests so I was quite surprised to see CAPTAIN CUTTER available at 8.00 in the morning of the Challow Hurdle, even better when it drifted out to double-figure prices pre-race. The key to the FormBet ratings is to rate the races using different criteria that the majority of the public (and bookmakers) use to analyse a race AND create their market – this gives us a huge edge when such discrepancies occur that we can take advantage of every day and this does happen quite often when the market over/under-estimates contenders regularly. I recommended this a rare 2pt win only Best Bet as I was so confident. Not only did it have POW1 and FBR1 and was value but it also had a very significant statistical confirmation backup of McCoy in hurdles races at Newbury when riding for Henderson which was a 58%+ strike-rate, 137% ROI and 1.64 AE AND had statistical significance…they really mean business and save their best hurdlers for this track. For good measure they also teamed up to win the last hurdle race on the card also – these stats work if used correctly, which few outfits out there do.
This was a cracking Welsh National won by Top-Rated MOUNTAINOUS beating 3rd-Rated Hawkes Point landing a nice £276 Exacta. I threw in Highland Lodge for my test account but my main account didn't know what hit it with this race and subscribers were jumping for joy as much as Mountainous did ! Not only did it have the fairly obvious ratings and value strength but there was also the stat of TMO (Trainer/Month) with Richard Lee having a significantly profitable strike-rate and record in the month of December historically (even better now !). It was a fantastic end to a great Saturday and rounded off Xmas very nicely.
OK, so this one is interesting – when you see a race where there is really quite poor value among the top-rated you need to dig a bit deeper. I posted a Tweet in the morning giving a very strong clue that I would have UNDER APPROVAL on my radar for this race. Captain Gerard was the best-rated All-Weather Sire in the race while the Damsire Docksider also is an excellent All-Weather sire and statistically significant to the tune of 1.38 AE and 1.9% Chi. So what makes you back a horse that is BOTTOM of the ratings ? Ratings are a guide – sometimes you have to use your head, when there is no value at the top, look further down until you find strength on ratings. In maiden/juvenile races especially (and especially so at the unique surface of Southwell) you need to get creative. The price of 9.6 would have been value, 22.5+ was just crazy so it warranted a fairly strong bet even on my test account. The better the value and statistical data then the more you should have on, generally speaking.
OK so there are a couple of things going on in this race. First of all I know that McCain runners in first-time blinkers is a profitable angle so that was a plus. Also the Trainer, Jockey and Sire were all ranked 1 making UBALTIQUE of strong interest here. As we can see there was a rizla paper between them on the POW rating (don't read ratings blindly, look at the figures) but the FBR (and value%) was stronger for the winner. Also, the price shortened on Trust Thomas and lengthened on Ubaltique so again it was a no-brainer of a bet. I liked Trust Thomas as a trade on this race so I used him as a trade to cover a more speculative Test wager on the winner and again it paid off nicely 🙂
Again this race is a perfect example of value aligned with an angle and some stats for backup. Trainer ranked 2nd, good draw and Jockey Ranked 2 with the promising Robert Tart was a plus but the first time hood was the angle and then the price was VALUE. So you back a 5th rated when ? Well, when you have a number of other positive side-stats and all the other horses are poor or lesser value. You will see here that I had no problem backing ATTAIN at slightly shorter, that was a pure cover play for more speculative bets. I also backed a stat horse in Brown Pete and Hawaiian Freeze and put in a trade to recoup stakes should THE GINGER BERRY not quite get there or get nailed on the line. It worked out again perfectly and shows you have to get creative and take a chance when you have accumulated enough decent profits…play with the layers money for speculative instead of your own.
So over just the last 2 days to relatively small stakes overall here are my Test Betfair account profits, the Test bookmaker accounts are a little bit more so you can quite easily make a few grand if you pick your spots and seek the value, analyse the data and just put in a little bit of common sense and analysis -:
BEST BETS RESULTS for Saturday's and big meeting can be downloaded below -: