The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 22nd November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last 2 runnings and are both entered again this year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the 9 previous runnings:
Horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners, all 3 were French bred.
3 of 4 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.
French Bred: 5-6-22
Irish Bred: 3-4-23
British Bred: 1-0-14
Record of French breds aged 6 or 7: 3-5-10
Record of French breds aged 8 or older: 2-1-12 (both wins from Kauto Star)
8 of 9 winners had had 0 or 1 run that season
9 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start
7 of 9 winners posted an RPR of 168+ on last completed start
7 of 9 winners had run 6 to 15 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)
7 of 9 winners had won over 3M+
8 of 9 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase
Previous year's winner (Cue Card): 61U3 (1-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 331U11236 (3-1-9)
King George winner (Silviniaco Conti): 31U124 (2-1-6)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 331U14224 (2-2-9)
Denman Chase winner (Harry Topper): 1323 (1-2-4)
Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Holywell): 12 (1-1-2)
Ryanair Chase winner (Dynaste): 21 (1-1-2)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Menorah): 76431 (1-0-5)
Lexus Chase winner (Bobs Worth): 2255 (0-2-4)
Previous season's Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Wonderful Charm): 2 (0-1-1)
Argento Chase winner (Giant Bolster): 2 (0-1-1)
Aintree Bowl Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 235 (0-1-3)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Boston Bob): 353 (0-0-3)
6 of 9 winners ran in previous season's King George, finishing 211535
4 of 9 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 1113
3 of 9 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123
3 of 9 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 231
2 of 9 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 4P
Paul Nicholls (5-1-10) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 and finish 3rd in 2013.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race last year with Cue Card.
David Pipe (0-2-3) has trained the 2nd in 2008 & 2012 and 3rd in 2009.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish 2nd in 2011 & 2012.
8 of 9 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter
The slightly fortuitous Snoopy Loopy and Cue Card (last year) have been the only 2 winners to come from outside the top 3 in the betting.
The favourite (4-2-9) have won 4 of the 8 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.52.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– French bred 6yos do well
– Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
– Posted an RPR of 168+ last time
– Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)
– Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase
– Won over 3 miles or further
– Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time
– Finished in first 5 in 2013 King George
It will be fair to say that there is one stand out in the trends, two points clear of the rest of the field, failing on the age criteria, and then they all do.
Out of 8 of the basic trends DYNASTE scores 7.
Harry Topper, Menorah and Silvinaco Conti following in at 5
Cue Card scores a lowly 4. Excuses for this is his run lto, was it a prep run for this with a poor RPR? In addition, a no show for the Charlie Hall and Old Roan Chases, reduced trends scores further.
Sad Ken has Cue Card leading scoring 4 out of six, leading the analysis in form and ability. Whereas, Harry Topper is the clear form and speed horse, is he ready to progress from Grade 2 winning form to Grade 1? His profile suggests he is and has a value price if one decides to take a chance.
So back to the trends leader Dynaste, scoring 3 on Sad Ken, taking on the old rivals Cue Card and Silivinaco Conti. The first 3 in the betting and all the money surround them as in previous years. All beating each other from time to time and having respective glory, like Chelsea, Man City and Man United!
Dynaste has the better positive profile of the three, although all are negative, as they are knocking highest Official Ratings. So he is the obvious choice.
If I go beyond the strictest rules, as of late, and no real form has been franked yet, I’ll take another chance with the horse with the best profile. The form and speed horse and new kid on the block for value, also being a fan of his sire. Harry Toppper.