Thought I would take a look at a few of the trends ahead of this weekend’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon this Saturday. I have no idea what my ratings will have as top but I can’t imagine that Markab will be too far away while Tamagin and Judge ‘N Jury are also likely to be up there on the ratings.

However, this is about trends not ratings but before I get to the most relevant trends I will have a look at the draw over Ripon 6f of 10+ runners since 2003. Loads of stats/trends analysis I have read have said high draws are the ones to concentrate on but I’m not convinced. Overall in races over 6f since 2003, apart from stall 15, the high draw is not such an advantage as it appears to be. In fact stalls 3-12 look to have very good win strike-rates and stall 1 and 2 have good s/r’s for placed runners so it could be argued that low to middle is best. The winners % are in green with the placed % in purple.

Also, if you look at the St Wilfrid renewals that contained 20 runners or less you will see the following –:

2004 – 11-5-12-20 (19 runners)
2006 – 12-7-8-6 (19 runners)
2008 – 11-16-9-12 (20 runners)

So basically 10 of the 12 places in recent years where there were 19 or 20 runners were filled by horses drawn between stalls 5 and 12. High draws only dominated in fields with 22 runners or more and even then not to the extent that some experts would have you believe.

So with that in mind here is my stats rundown…

So with favourites having such a poor record the recommendation at this stage would be to go with JUDGE ‘N JURY at best price odds of 20/1 which looks a massive price. It seems at first glance that the Pivotal gelding is better over 5 but he was staying on well when winning two outings ago and possibly hit the front too soon before staying on well last time in the sprint at the Shergar Cup. He races prominently and if held together for a bit longer should be able to pounce as he is certainly in good hear. I will wait until my ratings before looking at the other runners. Markab is sure to run a big race but looks underpriced. Of the others Valery Borzov, Tamagin, Jimmy Styles and Striking Spirit would be of major interest if in the top-4 of my ratings.

Discuss in the forum.

She was done for toe last time in a slowly run race at Sandown but looks a value bet at 141 as the test of stamina required should be right up her street on Saturday.

The likely presence of the talented William Buick can only be a major plus. She also had Judgethemoment 10 lengths back when scoring at Sandown last July and that rival is only 1lb better off on Saturday yet much shorter in the betting so I’ll advise a bet on her at the moment and pray for a low draw as 10 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower.

The 2nd one I really like is Walter Swinburn’s unexposed stayer HENDERSYDE who ran well after a 202 day abscence (and a gelding operation) to score over an inadequate 12f at Kempton back in April showing a decent turn of foot in the process. Given only one race since, he won really well over 14f at Newmarket and is going to be targeted at races like the Ebor and the Cesarewitch. Proven over the distance and on the ground this lightly raced stayer is likely to go very close.

Tilt was 3rd in this in heavy ground last season and ran well last time in a hot 2-miler at Haydock last time with Record Breaker just behind and Bollin Felix just ahead. Both Tilt and Bollin Felix have shown there best form with cut so unless the rain comes they are skipped over as is Kayf Aramis who looked like he had enough for the time being at Ascot and is another for whom really fast ground might be a concern. If the rains come, these few will come right into the mix but for me the value lies with these two who also fit quite a few of the stats for the race.

NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE – NEWCASTLE – SATURDAY

HENDERSYDE – 5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

VICTORIA MONTOYA – 10pts e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

It’s also comforting to note that SEA THE STARS and FAME AND GLORY that I recommended for the Derby at 16/1 and 9/1 respectively early last month are clear ranked 1st and 2nd while MIDDAY holds claims in the Oaks but it’s not so clear-cut there.

Diomed Trends (Friday 1:05)

CONFRONT 6/4 & MAC LOVE 14/1

1. 10/33 Course Winners
2. 15/20 First 3 LTO
3. 17/20 Won at least once in their last 5 starts
4. 6/20 Priced between 12/1 and 25/1
5. 7/38 Raced in a handicap LTO
6. 16/20 Up in class from last run
7. 10/11 Last run within 2 months

Oaks Trends (Friday 4:05)

MIDDAY 4/1

1. 8/22 Winning Favourites
2. 16/20 Top 4 in betting
3. 6/37 Raced over 1 mile LTO
4. 5/14 Henry Cecil trained
5. 5/28 Raced at Lingfield LTO
6. 7/20 US Bred runners
7. 8/11 Won last time out

Dash Trends (Saturday 3:00)

INDIAN TRAIL 14/1

1. 8/10 Drawn 8 or higher
2. 8/10 Aged 5 or older
3. 10/10 At least 3 wins
4. 5/10 Placed at Epsom
5. 11 raced within the last month
6. 10/10 Top 3 finish this season
7. 7/8 Last run at a Northern track
8. David Nicholls 4 wins

Derby Trends (Saturday 3:45)

SEA THE STARS 3/1

1. 13/20 Top 3 of the betting
2. 19/20 Priced 14/1 or less
3. 15/20 First LTO
4. 12/20 3 or more wins
5. 6/24 Won at York LTO
6. 5/6 Had just one prep race
7. 7/10 Had won over at least a mile at 2

6:05

Starting in the 10f handicap at and the very well bred Kensington Oval by Sadler’s Wells out of a Rainbow Quest mare is likely to be the first of many short-priced favourites for the Stoute/Moore combo tonight and rightly so, he has every chance. However, preference is for the equally respect John Gosden runner SERIOUS IMPACT who is stepped back to 10f after running 3rd over 12f last time. That could be a shrewd move and he may represent better value than than the favourite, holding a fitness advantage over that rival.
If it rains Dr Livingstone would have a chance but if not then the rapidly improving PELHAM CRESCENT could make the frame and may be worth an e/w bet providing it doesn’t rain. He is on for the 4-timer and the promising David Probert is on board. I like his breeding being by Giant’s Causeway out of a Riverman mare and he could run a race at a price.

6:35

I don’t really bet in 2yo races as they are generally unpredictable events. Monsieur Chevalier should take this but he was workmanlike in soft ground last time and this comes plenty soon enough. I’ve just watched the video of RAINE’S CROSS win at Bath last time and although that was not a strong event, he won in the manner of a potentially Group-class colt despite meeting a bit of trouble and having to be switched round the outsider. He is reportedly heading to the Coventry stakes. At 3/1+ he could scare the favourite here.

7:10

A decent renewal of the Henry VII stakes but very hard to see past PATKAI after his demolition job in the Sagaro Stakes. However, he is odds-on so I will be looking at the forecast. Everything needs to go right for Geordieland but he does go very well fresh and is the highest-rated in the field. However, Tastahil ran a good race last time, Barry Hills is in excellent form this season and this one has scope for improvement at the trip so he may take the runner-up slot and provide a bit of value for the forecast.

7:45

Race of the night in my opinion. We have the Leger/Breeders Cup winner CONDUIT trying to concede weight all round to some decent types over a trip short of his best first time out so he looks one to take on at first glance but he is a class act and could represent a bit of value at 3/1+ here for his in-form trainer/jockey combo. Campanologist placed in the Eclipse last year and ran some decent races but Godolphin are in shocking form and no Frankie is a negative tonight. Pipedreamer has to have a major chance based on his 2nd to Tartan Bearer over C&D last time and he rates the one to beat but he does have a habit of finding one too good at the top level and although he should come on for the run he may find the Stoute horse outclasses him, especially if there is a fast pace on which seems likely. There may not be much room for each-way value here but it’s interesting that Adam Kirby deserts Staying On for Stotsfold. That one was not disgraced in the Eclipse last year and ended the season with a  GP3 win at Windsor. He ran ok when beaten 3 lengths by Paco Boy over an inadequate mile trip last time and can step up on that run tonight back over 10f.

8:20

You can pretty much put a line through the Godolphin 3yo’s at the moment so it looks to rest between Border Patrol and RACKATEER with the ground conditions swinging it in the favour of the Gosden runner. Border Patrol being by Selkirk out of an Efisio mare has already shown a slight preference for cut and has to concede 5lb to a highly rated Gosden runner. Postie tipped me this one last month when winning over C&D as being a potential Group-class colt and if he improves on that run he will be very tough to beat. Being by Cape Cross obviously any rain may swing things the other way but this is a class colt.

8:50

Another Gosden runner. Postie has also mentioned to me that CADRE is being targeted at the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascoot so I’m on at 20/1 each-way with Bluesq and am also on at 6’s for this race on Betfair which believe me is a massive price. I don’t usually bet ante-post in Royal Ascot handicaps but I’ve made an exception in this case. At Lingfield 2 outings ago he finished slightly lame after being heavily eased but bounced back in some style at Yarmouth last time (check the video on Attheracces). He has been tearing up the gallops lately and has improved markedly since that last run. He looks a potential Group class colt in the making so 6.2 on Betfair will not last long in my opinion and the 20/1 with BlueSq for the Royal Hunt Cup should be snapped up as I expect him to win tonight and contract for the latter race as a result. LIGHT FROM MARS is a consistent type and at double-figure prices could reward each-way support here.

On her reappearance she again ran ok on possibly unsuitably fast ground in the 1000 Guineas trial won by Maoineach. She was held up there but made up a lot of ground to take 4th in the 7f contest. She then won her maiden well earlier this month over a mile with a little juice underfoot which should put her spot on for this and she will be guaranteed to stay this mile in heavy ground.

Weld and Smullen won this 3 years ago with Nightjar and went close with Mad About You last year. Rare Ransom looks to be in there as a pacemaker for both Dance Pass and Weld’s other decent sort Luminous Eyes, so stamina in this ground will be vital, as will fitness, which may find out both her stable-mate Luminous Eyes and favourite Again.

A bigger danger could come from the Wachman ‘2nd string’ LOVE BIRD who trotted up in a heavy ground Curragh maiden contest a few weeks ago, is totally unexposed and being by Pivotal is bred to relish these conditions. Heffernan won the Irish Guineas last year and in 2001 and also made the frame in 2007 and 2006 so it’s by no means a negative that he is on board the ‘2nd string’ as he clearly relishes the occasion here so she is worth a couple of pts each-way also at big odds of 11/1.

Dance Pass is also entered for the Epsom Oaks and Sadler’s Wells-bred fillies that win the Irish 1000 Guineas can also go on to win (Imagine) or run 2nd (Yesterday) in the Oaks. The Oaks looks particularly weak this year and a good performance here could see her odds shorten dramatically for Epsom. It’s a big stab in the dark but I recommend a 2pts each-way bet for the Oaks at a massive 50/1 with William Hill (25/1 with Totesport) to supplement our only other previous bet on Beauty O’Gwaun who was not so impressive in her trial but may still line-up at Epsom for John Oxx.

Curr3:40 DANCE PASS 5pts each-way @ 14/1 (P Power)
Curr3:40 LOVE BIRD 2pts each-way @ 11/1 (Bluesq)

Oaks – DANCE PASS 2pts each-way @ 50/1 (William Hill)

 

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