So, it's a 5-game late slate tonight, so we have to be right with our analysis. I was going to give tonight a miss, but I love a challenge so here goes and it's good to learn with a view to moving forward and improving. My team, pitcher and batter ratings are at the bottom of this post.
CLEVELAND (+139) TREVOR BAUER – So, for the first time in an age, I am going against my top-rated offense Houston, simply due to the quality of the pitcher they are facing in Trevor Bauer. Now, Gerrit Cole is ranked 4th on pitcher ratings but he is 1/5 for the season, but he does excel at home. However, Houston only have a +0.8 run average on Cleveland tonight. Bauer has 25.82 average draftkings points this season, has pitched 6.44 average innings, the highest on this slate, is the 2nd best value play, even though he is highest priced, has a 1.6 ERA against lefties and 2.78 against righties which is better than any other pitcher tonuight, as well as striking out an average of 12 guys over 9 innings. Add in the fact he has an ERA of 2.59 away from home and high K% rates and we have a ‘shock' in store tonight.
BOSTON (-190) RICK PORCELLO – The Boston/Detroit game has the 2 worst pitchers on the slate in terms of Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmerman. However, this game could be a shock in the making. The key is that the BOSTON offence ranks 2nd, compared to Detroit who are plum last, BUT they do have players who could destroy Porcello if he has a really, really bad day. I would not want either of these pitchers but BOSTON should win this, purely on their offensive superiority, marked by the highest run advantage on the slate of +1.8. However, I do think that some Detroit bats (listed below) could be value based on this bias, especially the likes of Gordon Beckham. I don't quite have the nerve to oppose Boston but Detroit could be a potential value call, we shall see how it goes.
SEATTLE (-165) MARCO GONZALES – Now, MG is one of the lowest ranked pitchers but he is 4/6 this season and has the highest innings pitched (IP) average of 6.33 of everyone on the slate bar Bauer. The key though is that his opponent on the mound is a rookie in Taylor Hearn for one of the worst offences in Texas. They have home advantage and Seattle has a lot of power that could crush this kid tonight. I often like to take a punt on young guys but not in this situation tonight. However, this could go either way depending on whether the kid brings the heat and MG has an off-day. It's another that could provide an upset and again, we will learn tonight.
CINCINATTI (-135) LUIS CASTILLO is ranked 2nd best pitcher on the slate, with an average of 25.82 DK points and ranks the best value but they are not playing on the main slate, so this is just a bet to add to the accumulator and offers no fantasy options. He is also up against a relatively poor pitcher in Julio Teheran (ranked 11th) who struggles away from home, whereas Castillo does better with a nice 30% K% rate. I expect Suarez and Votto to take advantage at home tonight.
This is a little bit trickier than most nights, but the Acca pays 9.58 with Betfair and I'd recommend throwing in 4 Trebles to cover in case one lets us down.
From a Fantasy perspective, I'd be keen to leave out Boston Bats, as they are sure to be popular so I'd be contrarian and recommend the following at each position, bearing in mind that Cincinatti kick off just before midnight so are excluded. I haven't mentioned Nola but he is the 3rd best pitcher on the slate after Bauer and Castillo so I'll focus on these two guys tonight and look for value at the batting positions mixed with guys who have an advantage against poor pitchers.
Pitcher – TREVOR BAUER (CLE) 10.6K, AARON NOLA (PHI) 9.6K
Catcher – JOHN HICKS (DET) 3.4K & TOM MURPHY (SEA) 4.1K
1st Base – LUKE VOIT (NYY) 4.2K, CARLOS SANTANA (CLE) 4.7K & JOHN HICKS (DET) 3.4K
2nd Base – GLEYBER TORRES (NYY) 3.9K, CESAR HERNANDEZ (PHI) 4.1K & DEE GORDON (SEA) 4.2K, MICHAEL CHAVIS (BOS) 3.7K
3rd Base – GORDON BECKHAM (DET) 3.7K & DJ LEMAHIU (NYY) 3.6K, MICHAEL CHAVIS (BOS) 3.7K
Short Stop – FRANCISCO LINDOR (CLE) 4.7K & GLEYBER TORRES (3.9K) & XANDER BOGAERTS (BOS) 4.3K
Outfielders – MIKE TROUT (LAA) 5.6K, SHIN-SOO CHOO (TEX) 4.5K, MITCH HANIGER (HOU) 5.1K, NICK GOODRUM (DET) 4.3 & BRETT GARDNER (NYY) 4.3K, MOOKIE BETTS (BOS) 4.8K, J.D. MARTINEZ (BOS) 5.2K
TEAM OFFENSE & PITCHER RATINGS