MLB Pitchers & Batters – Mon 6th May

MLB Pitchers & Batters – Mon 6th May

Choosing between the 5 elite pitchers, JACOB DE GROM, BLAKE SNELL, MAX SCHERZER, GERRIT COLE and COLE HAMELS is no easy task tonight. They are all priced at 10k+ on Draftkings – Cole and Hamels look to be in potentially the best spots tonight. Hamels is in a great spot against a Miami offense that struggled for power and strikes out 23% of the time. Snell is ab elite leftie and has an excellent record pitching at home but has the low average innings pitched from the 5.  Scherzer is in a tricky spot against a Milwaukee team with a lot of power while DeGrom may struggle to get run support. Gerrit Cole is the one I favour against Kansas City and they have a +2.9 Run advantage tonight. CC SABATHIA is of interest of those a little further down the pricing and I'll probably mix and match these 3.

For Batters I really like MOOKIE BETTS who can take advantage of John Means in a good spot. MICHAEL CHAVIS, J.D. MARTINEZ and XANDER BOGAERTS appeal to complete a 4-man Boston stack.

I also like the Chicago Cubs batters in a good matchup against Sandy Alcantara, in particular JAVIER BAEZ, KRIS BRYANT and ANTHONY RIZZO.

Cleveland Lefties are worth noting against Ivan Nova who struggles against them. FRANCISCO LINDOR and JOSE RAMIREZ are interesting.

Finally, 3 from St Louis Cardinals, PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT, PAUK DEJONG and MATT CARPENTER are worth going with against Vince Velasquez.

So, I'll mix up those 3 pitchers with the above 4 ‘stacks' and then throw in some value players in the other positions using my ratings, which you can receive by signing up on the homepage.

MLB Preview Tue 30th April

MLB Preview Tue 30th April

A strange night last night with the top-2 pitchers on the slate underperforming, and being on the losing side, however, it's the exception to the rule usually and over 160+ games in the season, you will get nights like that. Verlander was still the 3rd-highest Fantasy points scorer but it's notable that his opponent Jake Odorizzi was the highest. At least we got the Atlanta forecast right, with Mike Soroka the 2nd-highest points scoring pitcher.

It's important to be consistent in any betting approach, especially when using statistics and ratings. Losing punters chop and change and give up after a few days poor performance. However, tonight we have another issue with weather concerns in some of the later games (HOU/MIN, TEX/PIT, TB/KC and CWS/BAL) all have concerns, meaning those team names in RED may have postponements or weather delays, especially so with TB/KC. It's best to avoid them I feel but weather is a really important factor in Baseball and selecting players for DFS especially. It's worth following Kevin Roth on Twitter for updates and even subscribing to a premium weather app like Radarscope Pro. The average punter/DFS player will not be looking in this much detail so sometimes it's good to “geek out” on apps like this to gain an edge. For example, some of the games mentioned above, the weather may clear and provide some top Fantasy options that earlier players have missed. It's also worth just filling up your lineups on DFS then swopping a ‘non-starter' for a player in a ‘weather-impacted' game that turns out to be ok, depends how much of your life you want to spend watching weather updates and messing about with player swops. Personally, I value my free time 🙂

I'll be doing a specific post on DFS in the coming weeks but until then I'll stick with the outright bets on the ‘surefire' weather games, with a few mentions on Fantasy Players to note from those teams.

TEAM & PITCHER RATINGS

BATTER RATINGS

Going to keep it brief tonight, as Tuesday night is Yoga night for me, but I have picked out what I think is a decent 4-Team Accumulator, again bet the 4 trebles as well. These will be provided to FTS Subscribers from Wednesday, along with the ratings, you can jump on board for £100 for the season or £20 for the month before the price increase tomorrow via the homepage, so signup to get MLB bets, PGATour and Horse Racing selections here.

All games start after midnight GMT so plenty of time to get bets on tonight. The Accumulator pays 7.93 with Unibet and we get back around +30pts if the 4-teams land thanks to the boost from the trebles. 1 x 2pt Accumulator and 4 x 2pt Trebles.

Chicago Cubs are also worth a mention tonight, I expect them to have the measure of Seattle and get some decent fantasy points. Boston also could have been included against Oakland. Players of note from both teams below.

COLORADO
CLEVELAND
LA DODGERS
CINCINATTI

COLORADO ROCKIES (+102) take on Milwaukee but GERMAN MARQUEZ is a far better pitching option than Chacin and they have a slight power edge batting tonight.

CLEVELAND INDIANS (-165) are away to the lowest ranked offense with Miami and have TREVOR BAUER at the plate.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-150) are also away to San Francisco who surprised them last night but with WALKER BUEHLER pitching I expect normal service to be resumed.

CINCINATTI REDS (-115) have LUIS CASTILLO pitching for them, not too much of an offensive edge against the Mets but Jason Vargas is the 2nd-lowest ranked pitcher so expect some CIN runs.

Players to Note:

Catcher: REALMUTO (PHI 4.7k), CONTRERAS (CHC 4.6K)
1B: BELLINGER (LAD 5.8k), VOTTO (CIN 3.9k)
2B: DESCALSO (CHC 3.8k), SOGARD (TOR 4.1k)
3B: ARENADO (COL 5.2k), BRYANT (CHC 4.4k)
SS: STORY (COL 5.3k), BAEZ (CHC 5.6k)
OF: BETTS (BOS 5k), TROUT (LAA 5.7k), J.D. MARTINEZ (BOS 4.9k), BENETENDI (BOS 4.6k)

 

MLB Preview Sun 28th April

MLB Preview Sun 28th April

3 out of 4 right last night, with only Washington failing in the dying stages.

I'm a little short on time today so I'll just post the 4-fold accumulator and the pitcher and batter ratings below. The Accumulator pays 7.7/1 with Betfair and against I recommend throwing in 4 trebles to cover and potentially boost winnings when all 4 teams win.

MINNESOTA (-190) KYLE GIBSON

ST LOUIS CARDINALS (-140) JACK FLAHERTY

BOSTON (-148) CHRIS SALE

SAN DIEGO (+105) JOEY LUCCHESI

TEAM & PITCHER RATINGS

BATTER RATINGS

 

 

MLB Preview Sat 27th April

MLB Preview Sat 27th April

A rare wipeout last night but looking to get back on track with 7 games on the early slate and 7 on the later one.

MINNESOTA (-286) JOSE BERRIOS The number 1 ranked offence takes on one of the worst offences at home with Jose Berrios averaging 22.24 DK pts, 3 wins from 5 games and facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate with a 28.3% K% rate at home. They have a huge 3 runs advantage and can justify strong favouritism tonight with the likes of NELSON CRUZ (OF) 4.7k, EDDIE ROSARIO (OF) 5.6k and JORGE POLANCO (SS) 5k looking like a strong stack for the Twins on the earlier or all-day slate.

HOUSTON (-130) BRAD PEACOCK (pictured) can have the measure of Cleveland tonight after 2 poor outings, playing back at home on the earlier slate.  The pitcher has an excellent 37% strike-out rate against right-handed batters and excels with a 29.3% K% rate at home. The likes of ALEX BREGMAN (3B) 4.7k, JOSH REDDICK (OF) 4.3k and GEORGE SPRINGER (OF) 5.4k can all get runs against Shane Bieber who had a shocking outing last time, allowing 7 runs over less than 3 innings last time.

WASHINGTON (-167) With STEPHEN STRASBOURG pitching at home, they can beat the 2nd-lowest ranked offence on the slate in San Diego with Eric Lauer a real pitching mismatch. ANTHONY RENDON (3B) 5.5k is back in the lineup tonight and along with YAN GOMES (C) 3.5k and BRIAN DOZIER (2B) 3.9k can get some runs on the board with a run advantage of 1.08.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-205) CLAYTON KERSHAW can get back in winning form against the lowest-ranked offence at home to Pittsburgh who have the average Trevor Richards pitching. The superb CODY BELLINGER (1B/OF) 5.8k hit another homer last night and can do so again. Along with JUSTIN TURNER (3B) (3.7k), MAX MUNCY (1B/3B) 4.2k & A.J. POLLOCK (OF) 3.7k, they look a solid stack and can rank up the runs tonight with a run advantage of 1.7

The accumulator pays 5.66/1 with Betfair and again throw in 4 trebles.

TEAM AND PITCHER RATINGS

FANTASY OPTIONS

As well as the above mentioned pitches and batters there are a few of note tonight.

Tyler Mahle has a 6.22 ERA against lefties so MATT CARPENTER (3B) 4.1k is of major interest in the leadoff spot for St Louis Cardinals and DEXTER FOWLER (OF) 3.9K is another lefty to note.

Jorge Lopez has a 5.64 ERA against lefties so BRIAN GOODWIN (OF) 4.3k and KOLE KALHOUN (OF) 4.2k can take full advantage for the LA Angels tonight

NICK CASTELLANOS (OF) 4.2k can mash Reynaldo Lopez who struggles against right-handers

RHYS HOSKINS (1B) 5.1k can also take advantage of Trevor Richards poor record against right-handed hitters.

HUNTER DOZIER (1B/3B) 4.6 for Kansas City can get some runs agains Jaime Barria, he is one of the few KC bats I like tonight as he is swinging the bat well at the moment.

The White Sox can win tonight against Detroit, I would have put them up as an outright bet but there are weather concerns so check this closer to the start time. The average Detroit pitcher Ryan Carpenter who struggles against righties in particular with an 8.27 ERA and the lowest strike-rate on the slate so both JOSE ABREU (1B) 4.6k and YOAN MONCADA (3B) 5.3k can get some runs.

MLB Preview 26th April

MLB Preview 26th April

Great result yesterday with the 9.58/1 Accumulator landing, you would also have boosted your profits by around +21pts with the trebles to 1pt stakes, so all-in-all a good day.

Tonight we have a full slate of 15 games – which is heaven, although I have not had as much time to dig into too much detail due to a busy Saturday on horseracing. Despite Bauer getting the win for Cleveland, Gerrit Cole actually got more fantasy points due to his higher number of strikeouts, so I'll be placing a bit more focus on K% rates with pitchers going forward.

ATLANTA BRAVES (-162) MAX FRIED is one of the best pitching options on the slate (ranks 3rd) for the joint-2nd best offense, up against the 19th worst offense in Colorado. He has won 3/4 games this season, has a huge 33.8% strike-rate against lefties, so should be able to take care of hitters like Blackmon, Murphy and Tapia and has a 21.7% against righties. The 25-year old has pitched an average of 6.03 innings with an average of 13.62 Draftkings points and has a good ERA of 2.00 at home. Colorado has a fair bit of power but I expect the youngster to get the win backed by a strong offense.

HOUSTON (-135) have COLLIN MCHUGH pitching against Cleveland tonight, he strikes out Lefties at a 27.8% K% rate and righties at 34.1% but also a 35.1% at home so he goes in as a pitching option with 3 wins from 5 outings this season. He doesn't have too much to fear from Cleveland bats tonight and despite Korey Cluber pitching, he is not quite as good as he was the last few seasons. Houston offence should give him good backup to secure the win.

NEW YORK YANKEES (-110) have JAMES PAXTON pitching and up against a poor San Francisco offence. He has been averaging 23.77 Fantasy Points and has the highest L-K9 figure of 14.67 on the slate and the 2nd best Siera after Scherzer.

WASHINGTON (-185) MAX SCHERZER is just behind Fried on the Pitcher ratings, for the 7th best offense, pitching at home, facing up against the 2nd worst offense in San Diego who have one of the highest K% strike-out rates on the slate, with a poor pitcher in Matt Strahm in opposition. They should have no problem getting the win tonight and plenty of runs with a 1.38 Run Advantage.

The Accumulator pays 7.48/1 and again I recommend throwing in Trebles to cover stakes if one lets us down.

Fantasy Plays

Pitchers – MAX FRIED (ATL) 8k & MAX SCHERZER (WAS) 10.4k & COLIN MCHUGH (HOU) 8k
Catchers – YADER MOLINA (STL) 3.9k & MIKE ZUNINO (TB) 4k
1st Base – JUSTIN SMOAK (TOR) 4.7k & LUKE VOIT (NYY) 4.5K
2nd Base – ROBINSON CANO (NYM) 4k, WHIT MERRIFIELD (KC) 4.9k
3rd Base – ANTHONY RENDON (WAS) 5k (if back from injury), HUNTER DOZIER (KC) 4.5k, MATT CARPENTER (STL) 4.1k
Short Stop – JORGE POLANCO (MIN) 5.1k & PAUL DEJONG (STL) 5k
Outfield – MIKE TROUT (LAA) 5.6k, EDDIE ROSARIO (MIN) 5.3k, CODY BELLINGER (LAD) 5.7k & MARCELL OZUNA (STL) 5.1k

 

 

MLB Preview 25th April

MLB Preview 25th April

So, it's a 5-game late slate tonight, so we have to be right with our analysis. I was going to give tonight a miss, but I love a challenge so here goes and it's good to learn with a view to moving forward and improving. My team, pitcher and batter ratings are at the bottom of this post.

CLEVELAND (+139) TREVOR BAUER – So, for the first time in an age, I am going against my top-rated offense Houston, simply due to the quality of the pitcher they are facing in Trevor Bauer. Now, Gerrit Cole is ranked 4th on pitcher ratings but he is 1/5 for the season, but he does excel at home. However, Houston only have a +0.8 run average on Cleveland tonight. Bauer has 25.82 average draftkings points this season, has pitched 6.44 average innings, the highest on this slate, is the 2nd best value play, even though he is highest priced, has a 1.6 ERA against lefties and 2.78 against righties which is better than any other pitcher tonuight, as well as striking out an average of 12 guys over 9 innings. Add in the fact he has an ERA of 2.59 away from home and high K% rates and we have a ‘shock' in store tonight.

BOSTON (-190) RICK PORCELLO – The Boston/Detroit game has the 2 worst pitchers on the slate in terms of Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmerman. However, this game could be a shock in the making. The key is that the BOSTON offence ranks 2nd, compared to Detroit who are plum last, BUT they do have players who could destroy Porcello if he has a really, really bad day. I would not want either of these pitchers but BOSTON should win this, purely on their offensive superiority, marked by the highest run advantage on the slate of +1.8. However, I do think that some Detroit bats (listed below) could be value based on this bias, especially the likes of Gordon Beckham. I don't quite have the nerve to oppose Boston but Detroit could be a potential value call, we shall see how it goes.

SEATTLE (-165) MARCO GONZALES – Now, MG is one of the lowest ranked pitchers but he is 4/6 this season and has the highest innings pitched (IP) average of 6.33 of everyone on the slate bar Bauer. The key though is that his opponent on the mound is a rookie in Taylor Hearn for one of the worst offences in Texas. They have home advantage and Seattle has a lot of power that could crush this kid tonight. I often like to take a punt on young guys but not in this situation tonight. However, this could go either way depending on whether the kid brings the heat and MG has an off-day. It's another that could provide an upset and again, we will learn tonight.

CINCINATTI (-135) LUIS CASTILLO is ranked 2nd best pitcher on the slate, with an average of 25.82 DK points and ranks the best value but they are not playing on the main slate, so this is just a bet to add to the accumulator and offers no fantasy options. He is also up against a relatively poor pitcher in Julio Teheran (ranked 11th) who struggles away from home, whereas Castillo does better with a nice 30% K% rate. I expect Suarez and Votto to take advantage at home tonight.

This is a little bit trickier than most nights, but the Acca pays 9.58 with Betfair and I'd recommend throwing in 4 Trebles to cover in case one lets us down.

CLEVELAND
BOSTON
SEATTLE
CINCINATTI

From a Fantasy perspective, I'd be keen to leave out Boston Bats, as they are sure to be popular so I'd be contrarian and recommend the following at each position, bearing in mind that Cincinatti kick off just before midnight so are excluded. I haven't mentioned Nola but he is the 3rd best pitcher on the slate after Bauer and Castillo so I'll focus on these two guys tonight and look for value at the batting positions mixed with guys who have an advantage against poor pitchers.

Pitcher – TREVOR BAUER (CLE) 10.6K, AARON NOLA (PHI) 9.6K
Catcher – JOHN HICKS (DET) 3.4K & TOM MURPHY (SEA) 4.1K
1st Base – LUKE VOIT (NYY) 4.2K, CARLOS SANTANA (CLE) 4.7K & JOHN HICKS (DET) 3.4K
2nd Base – GLEYBER TORRES (NYY) 3.9K, CESAR HERNANDEZ (PHI) 4.1K & DEE GORDON (SEA) 4.2K, MICHAEL CHAVIS (BOS) 3.7K
3rd Base – GORDON BECKHAM (DET) 3.7K & DJ LEMAHIU (NYY) 3.6K, MICHAEL CHAVIS (BOS) 3.7K
Short Stop – FRANCISCO LINDOR (CLE) 4.7K & GLEYBER TORRES (3.9K) & XANDER BOGAERTS (BOS) 4.3K
Outfielders – MIKE TROUT (LAA) 5.6K, SHIN-SOO CHOO (TEX) 4.5K, MITCH HANIGER (HOU) 5.1K, NICK GOODRUM (DET) 4.3 & BRETT GARDNER (NYY) 4.3K, MOOKIE BETTS (BOS) 4.8K, J.D. MARTINEZ (BOS) 5.2K

TEAM OFFENSE & PITCHER RATINGS

BATTER RATINGS