I took a look at some trainer and draw stats for Lingfield going back the last 5 years, so with a few races rated there on Tuesday thought it would be worth a closer look.

Now you can read all the data below and it should be able to help in picking winners at Lingfield over the winter months. It’s a very quick method when used on conjunction with the ratings, sire stats etc.

One that stands out for me on Tuesday using the info below is the Jeff Pearce runner Fantasy Ride in the 5.00 at Lingfield in stall 4. The trainer clearly does well with his runners here with a 26.67% s/r in October and an overall record at Lingfield of 14.29%, the best s/r of the trainers in the race on Tuesday. He is also ridden by the excellent Simon Pearce who is right up there with the very best amateur jockeys and well worth his 5lb claim. The sire Bahhare has the 2nd best strike-rated of 13%+ with his progeny on the all-weather so all this points to a big run.

First of all, I took a look at the record of each stall in races containing a minimum of 8 runners. The first thing that struck me was how poor a record stall 1 has at most distances. ‘In general’ the best stalls to be in are between 3 and 8. The  %’s generally start off small, then rise and fall again the higher you get, apart from the high stall 10 over 5f which has a freakishly high strike rated of 15%+ so keep an eye on how Walter Swinburn’s Master Lightfoot runs in the 5f sprint at 4.30 on Tuesday from stall 10.

I then took a look at the trainers that have a decent strike-rate between Oct and March and broke it down by month. I insisted on a minimum 10 wins in the last 5 years. W J Knight stands at the top in % terms. Over the next 3 months the guys to watch are Barry Hills, Saeed Bin Suroor, Jeff Pearce and Jeremy Noseda along with Knight of course. Gary Moore has a lot of runners and winners on the all-weather but relatively low strike-rate as a result but still worth watching, especially at the start of the year. Similar remarks apply to Kevin Ryan, Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon and John Best. The last 3 all have runners there on Tuesday.

I am looking for as many people as possible to post up a selection and danger in each Scoop6 race with a short bit of analysis in the forum post for this weekend. If 6 races proves too much and you want to put up a more detailed analysis of just one of the races or a couple of horses you fancy then please feel free as the more input the better to assist in determining selections. I will then use these selections in conjunction with my ratings and statistics to compile the final perm this Saturday.

There was no winner of the Scoop6 last weekend. That is great news for syndicates as this Saturday the Win fund will start off with £149,165 rolled over from last week and the Bonus fund has £63,928 in it already. Both these totals will grow rapidly as more stakes are placed.

A single winner of the Win and Bonus Funds could scoop up to £350,000! This Saturday’s Scoop6 which is made up of races from Haydock and Kempton. The Betfred Sprint Cup is the highlight of the Haydock card.

I will open up the syndicate subscriptions next week for 2 weeks with a view to kicking things off on October 3rd. The cost will be £30 for 8-weeks entries into the Scoop6 and Placepot syndicates. Once all the money is in by the end of September then the pooled money will be split – possibly 90% into the Scoop6 Pool and 10% for the weekend Placepot Pools.

Get your selections in now in the forum thread.

Haydock 1.55

Although I have Hamish McGonagall top rated that is largely due to his consistency but his habit of finding one too good is frustrating and he has had a few tough ones lately. STRIKE UP THE BAND is a big price but his form behind Borderlescott at Chester last time in a listed contest looks pretty good now and Nicholls has an excellent s/r both with sprinters and at the track. His son Adrian takes the ride.

Blue Jack and Northern Dare are next on my ratings and NORTHERN DARE is preferred with a 6lb pull giving him a chance of reversing the form on a more preferable softer surface. The booking of the excellent Jim Crowley is an additional bonus for the Nicholls sprinter.

Arganil is one that takes my eye a bit further down. He was only beaten a few lengths in a GP2 here on desperate ground behind Look Busy and was then not disgraced in a GP3 behind Knot in Wood over 6f in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle. This drop to 5f with a bit of cut could be ideal and he looks a big price but he has a fair bit of weight to overcome.

STRIKE UP THE BAND – NORTHERN DARE

Haydock 2.25

Be very interesting to see what kind of a ride CONFRONT gets as I don’t feel Ryan Moore gave him the best of rides last time when dead-heating and the step back up to a mile may help although I’m not sure how he will handle the going.

Ratings-aside, one I have had a gg-alert for when ground is genuine soft or heavy over a mile, conditions he has not had for some time is SMOKEY OAKEY. He is 3/4 over a mile when the ground has been soft or heavy and included a hot handicap at Ayr and the William Hill Lincoln last year. If that was not enough he landed the Group3 Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last season on soft ground from Maraahel and Pipedreamer. He has not shown much since then but has not had the optimum conditions he has today. He has been gelded since last year, has been working really well at home and is my hurdler to follow for the forthcoming jumps season when he is sent over timber.

CONFRONT – SMOKEY OAKEY

Haydock 2.55

This is going to be a war of attrition and a real slog. The winner is going to need to have boundless stamina and handle the conditions and track. The first one that sprung to my mind was Som Tala who will face similar conditions as he did at Newcastle in the Plate and has Kieren Fallon in the plate but he is none too consistent and is way down my ratings for this. HITS ONLY VIC is remarkably consistent and the softer the better. He ran a cracking 3rd in the Ebor last time and has carried a big weight on heavy ground over this course and distance before. He will be first on my list. However, I am not convinced MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR had the best of runs when 7th behind him that day and he has a 6lb pull for a few lengths beating. He has form on soft, notably when beating the subsequent Group class Tastahil last season and can run a big race given more luck in running this time.I will throw a 3rd one in the ring and when you are looking at a stamina test you have to think about Mark Johnston. Alanbrooke looks the obvious one but I think soft ground and a trip could be the making of YES MR PRESIDENT. By Montjeu he should relish the conditions and has been running well of late.

MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR – HITS ONLY VIC – YES MR PRESIDENT

Kempton 3.10

Trappy race but MUSLEH did leave quite an impression last time and could be tough to peg back. Frankie goes here instead of Haydock which says a lot I think. The low draw is a huge worry though so I’ll go with top-rated C&D winner SET THE TREND for the Balding/Buick combo out of stall 15 as my other selection.

MUSLEH – SET THE TREND

Haydock 3.30

If there is no more significant rain then I am going to go with the top-rated FLEETING SPIRIT. I think the fact she skipped the Nunthorpe could have been a blessing actually as she goes better fresh and her form is head and shoulders above anything else in the field. I’ve watched the July Cup a few times in the last few days and the fact she wandered all over the place detracted somewhat from the electric acceleration she showed that day and if she had stayed straight she would have won by even further. Her proven form at the course is also a plus and she should take all the beating if lining up. If more rain does arrive then her participation has to be in doubt and one that could come rught into the mix is last year’s Ayr Gold Cup winner REGAL PARADE for sprint-king Dandy Nicholls. I’ve already pointed out his good record at this track but any rain would bring this Pivotal gelding right into the equation, not much to find with Finjaan and the like and softer ground could make a huge difference for this improving sprinter. Another danger if Fleeting Spirit doesn’t line up would be High Standing. He has improved so much as the season has progressed with wins in the Wokingham and last time in the Hackwood Stakes. He has a bit to find but rapidly improving sprinters are preferred to others that have been found wanting at this level and a 6/6 over 6f and Group1 win for Fallon could be the story of the day, well at least for 20 minutes anyway

FLEETING SPIRIT – REGAL PARADE (HIGH STANDING 2nd bet if FS absent)

Thirsk 3.40

Hardest race of the 6 to me and a real minefield.I have no real opinion on this race and can’t muster the enthusiasm to look right now, so I will just trust in my ratings and go with the top-two.

DEMOLITION – SHALOO DIAMOND

Get your votes in now while there is still time..

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Ok using my ratings and a combo of the vote along with the guys who posted their opinion (cheers guys)…here would be the final perm I would consider…

1355- ARGANIL – BLUE JACK – STRIKE UP THE BAND

1425- RIO DE LA PLATA – CONFRONT

1455- HITS ONLY VIC – CONQUISTO

1510- MUSLEH – SET THE TREND

1530- FLEETING SPIRIT – HIGH STANDING

1540- DEMOLITION – RANGEFINDER

So 96 lines @ £2 = £192

I think this gives us a fair amount of coverage and is the best I could come up with so we shall see how it goes

Anyone else please feel free to post up their perms as I will be looking to recruit a few people to help out once we go ‘live’

Please vote for your Scoop6 selections below by entering the number of each selection you fancy in each Scoop6 race for this Saturday 4th Sep. Also, after submitting your vote please enter your name and/or email when prompted. You have until midday on Saturday to get your votes in.

Anyone who is interested also please feel free to post your thoughts and reasoning in the forum thread for this weekends Scoop6. I am looking for a team of people to analyse a race or two in detail so that we can form a selection panel for the future syndicate selections to use alongside/or in conjunction with the poll results.

If you could put in a short (or long if you like) analysis of your reasoning behind your main selection and danger in however many races you like before midday on Saturday in this forum thread, I will then post up the results in the thread around 1pm on Saturday once all poll results and previews have been analysed.

It’s also an ‘audition’ for those willing to be part of the Scoop6 selection panel with a view to forming a select group to pick out the final Scoop6 selections and discuss perms when the syndicate proper kicks off in October.

We’ve got a £71,885 win fund rollover and £30,808 bonus fund rollover for Saturday’s Scoop6 which is made up of races from Haydock and Kempton. The Betfred Sprint Cup is the highlight of the Haydock card whilst the tote sponsor all 7 races at Kempton. Remember that a bet with us helps to support UK racing.

Here’s the important Scoop6 info:

leg 1 Haydock 1.55
leg 2 Haydock 2.25
leg 3 Haydock 2.55
leg 4 Kempton 3.10
leg 5 Haydock 3.30
leg 6 Thirsk 3.40

When the racing is so substandard I find it a struggle to have a strong feeling about any bet, especially with the ongoing inclement and unpredictable weather playing havoc with ground conditions.

So I spent most of Wednesday’s racing testing out the bfexplorer Trader interface which is designed (as it obviously states) for trading on the betting exchanges. All the videos of how I got on with each race are below. I also used it to test out some of the bfexplorer Trader functionality so it was as much a learning curve as it was a refresher for myself in what to do and more importantly, what not to do. Each video lasts no longer than 10 mins, some less than half that and covers basic manual trading to automated pre-programmed trading.

I didn’t lose on a single of the 13 races I traded although I did not always follow the best trading practice and on a couple of occasions took some silly risks letting trades go in-play which is a cardinal no-no, but it was an excellent example of what NOT to do. It was also for me to learn and teach myself the discipline, to get back into trading on poor racing days and to get used to features of the software. The P&L is listed below, a total profit of just over £70 was achieved. I only traded £100 at a time so with bigger amounts, more races you can potentially make a lot more, especially if you are not distracted making videos

You can download a 7-day trial of bfexplorer and use a brilliant practice mode to test things out before risking any of your hard cash. It also has other features like dutching which I described in a previous video and is displayed on the homepage. All the videos can also be found and viewed in full screen on my Youtube channel or just search for secretgambler. The videos are best viewed in race time order and last no longer than 10 mins, some much shorter.

I traded quite a few years ago with some success on the financial markets but with high costs, commissions and unpredictability due to world events, economic indicators and bad news it became too much like hard work

Trading on the exchanges is much more straightforward and is just a case of supply and demand and getting it right more than getting it wrong.

I use a combination of technical analysis and watching market moves, volume on back or lay sides and general market sentiment to decide on whether a price is going to shorten or drift. On a 3 meeting day with 6 races on each card, if you can make a fiver a race on average you are looking at a just shy of £100 quid a day which is not to be sniffed at and you should be able to make a bit more.

For an explanation of support and resistance this is a very good resource at Stockcharts as the principals can apply just as much if not more so in betting markets.

On the same site also have a read through both of the following 2 articles by John Murphy and Richard Rhodes. They are solid ‘rules’ to follow, many of which apply to trading on the betting exchanges markets.

Trading Record

Hereford 2.10 – £2.04
Lingfield 2.20 – £4.84
Brighton 2.30 – £4.69
Lingfield 2.50 – £0.26
Brighton 3.00 – £1.39
Lingfield 3.20 – £6.38
Hereford 3.40 – £11.22
Lingfield 3.50 – £5.59
Brighton 4.00 – £1.75
Lingfield 4.20 – £6.09
Brighton 4.30 – £6.79
Hereford 4.40 – £18.76
Lingfield 4.50 – £0.71

Total P&L – £70.51