Post-Race Analysis using GeeGeez Gold in 5 Simple Steps

Post-Race Analysis using GeeGeez Gold in 5 Simple Steps

One of the biggest failings punters make, is not looking back and reviewing races, meetings etc to see how the winners ‘could' have been found. Something I will be doing through the flat season will be looking back on a few of the big races each weekend and seeing how the winners could potentially have been found using GeeGeez Gold. This kind of review can help with future race analysis and give strong pointers to future winners or at least alternative approaches to consider. I thought i would do this for the recent Aintree festival, picking out a few key stats and figures from some races. POST-RACE ANALYSIS PROCESS My approach for post-analysis of a race, is in 5 key stages but there are of course other factors to consider, including recent form etc 1) PACE/DRAW analysis 2) INSTANT EXPERT HORSE conditions, sorted by PLACE, ALL data 3) INSTANT EXPERT TRAINER conditions, sorted by WIN, 2-Year data 4) MAIN RACECARD TRAINER/JOCKEY course form and KEY REPORT STATS 5) SPEED, RPR, TS and OR figures Now, PACE analysis for me is overplayed in horse racing, simply because past pace figures for a runner cannot ever be guaranteed, as each race is a unique and different make-up each time, but they can provide some ‘guidance' at best. They are perhaps more useful on the flat, particularly when including the draw and in sprint races. Having said that, the GeeGeez Gold PACE figures are the best online, they not only are well calculated, but they give a positive indication of historical pace runners and a visual representation. After looking at PACE, I move onto the amazing INSTANT EXPERT tab, I always select PLACE stats for the HORSE, over it's whole career, to give a bigger sample size of a horse's ability to act on going, distance, class, course etc. I go through each category, sorting my PLACE as percentage figures with small samples are misleading and I prefer to see more detailed figures. I then select the TRAINER data and select 2-Year WIN form to give an idea of a trainer's record under today's conditions. Occasionally, I will select the SIRE data, but more-so in maiden races on the flat than over the jumps, where there is less ‘form' to go on. I move on next to the main racecard and look for any jockeys and trainers in form over the last 14/30 days, at the course, and any key reporting stats. These are all really easy to identify on the GeeGeez racecards at a glance Finally, I sort runners by Official Rating (OR) and also we now have the ability to sort by Racing Post Rating (RPR) and Topspeed (TS). Now, these figures are not something to blindly follow but they can highlight strong contenders in races. So, lets get on with looking at a few races to see how the post-race analysis is done.

The first race I want to take a look at is the Juvenile Hurdle won narrowly by PENTLAND HILLS at 11/4 from FAKIR D'OUDARIES. Starting with PACE analysis, we can see that prominent racers have been historically profitable in this race in the past with a 1.27 Impact Value producing 7 winners from 24 runners. In this instance, we can see that there are 5 horses that fall in between the prominent/mid-div category but these include the eventual 1st, 2nd and 5th. We can also look at Peter May's speed ratings to see where the early pace may come from, in this case it was very accurate for the front-running Fakir D'Oudaries. The pace stats were a negative for favourite Band Of Outlaws who was mid-div/hold-up, ran that way and never got a blow in – so we can also use PACE stats to look for negatives about potential false favourites.   Next up we have the INSTANT EXPERT ANALYSIS for Horse and Trainer…first of all HORSE, sorted by Place stats. First key point to note is the number of places, PENTLAND HILLS was 3/6 on today's going, he was also 1/1 in the class, 1/1 at the distance and 4/6 in field size. Overall, those were the strongest combination of total place stats in the race, in terms of raw numbers, with perhaps Adjali the next strongest, who outran his odds when running into 4th. This alone shows the power of the Instant Expert feature.   Now, moving onto the TRAINER WIN Instant Expert stats. We can see straight away that Henderson and Nicholls runners stand out on the going, class, course, distance and field. Winner Pentland Hills, and 4th Adjali, were trained by Henderson with the eventual 3rd Christopher Wood from the Nicholls yard. In this instance I also take a look at the overall percentages because sometimes the more established trainers will always show up top of these total figures and we can ignore the smaller or up-and-coming trainers In this case,  Henderson still tops out in all the categories in percentage terms though. So overall Instant Expert clearly pointing towards Pentland Hills.   Let's move onto the last couple of points of analysis – trainer/jockey course and recent form and OR/RPR and TS figures. Well, we can see that Henderson has excellent course form over the last year and 5-year period, while Daryl Jacob is not in great form in the last few weeks but does ride the course well, in general. However, apart from the odd positive stat for some runners, it's clear that PENTLAND HILLS trainer and jockey stats for the course and in the last 30-days for Nico De Boinville are standout. The final piece of the puzzle, is that the winner was top of the Official Ratings, RPR and Topspeed figures so was a standout ratings-wise and a solid wager at 11/4. The Foxhunters was a real-ratings race because there were no strong pace pointers for the race. The winner TOP WOOD was 5th best on official ratings and RPR figures but 2nd best on Topspeed and on Peter May's speed figures so was easy to pick out from an overall ratings perspective. On Instant Expert he also had the highest number of places on the going and a 14/1 winner could have been easily found. In the Aintree Hurdle I actually advised a win bet on SUPASUNDAE at 10/1 to subscribers to the FormBet Tipster Service, via WhatsApp – he was clear 3rd best on OR, RPR and TS ratings figures but it was on Instant Expert where the key hints were. He had the clear 2nd-highest places on the going, after the odds-on favourite, the 2nd-highest places in this class of race, joint-highest placings at the course, highest number of placings at the distance and 3rd in Field size. He was a clear standout on Instant Expert and with strong-ratings to back him up, was the obvious value in the race.

 

The Friday got off to a cracking start for INSTANT EXPERT. Sometimes it's as simple as adding up all the place points for a big-field race of this nature. Doing so would have given you 2 top contenders in THREE MUSKATEERS (11pts) and STERNRUBIN (11pts). They finished 1st and 4th at 8/1 and 16/1 respectively. The trainer stats also pointed towards two trainers in Nicky Henderson (unplaced) and Gordon Elliott (winner at 8/1) giving further strength behind the selection.    

These are just a few examples of winners that could have been found last week using GeeGeez Gold. I also tipped up a strong contender in Lost In Translation at 3/1 while other strong stats winners that could have been discovered using the above methods were CHAMP 9/4, AUX PTITS SOIN 11/1, ORNUA 3/1, TIGER ROLL 4/1, CHIEF JUSTICE 13/2 and a few other decent placers.

If you are not using a tool like GeeGeez Gold to analyse races and find winners then you are at a serious disadvantage to an educated crowd of punters and race analysts. You can check out GeeGeez Gold for 1-month for just £1 here or at the banner below.

Saturday Challenge Cup Handicap

Saturday Challenge Cup Handicap

The big handicap on Saturday is the Challenge Cup at Ascot but using the trends elimination method there are two qualifiers, interestingly they are drawn in the lowest and the highest stalks to give coverage across the track. The first is Ripp Orff in stall 1 at 8/1 but I prefer the Mark Johnston runner in stall 18, LAKE VOLTA at 33/1.

However, I am going to throw another in the mix, last year’s 3rd-placed finisher RAISING SAND is a pound lower than last year, 4lb’s if we take into account the jockeys claim. Interestingly the 1st and 2nd last year, Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters, filled the same places in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes so that form looks rock solid. Add to that the fact that Raising Sand also has two wins at Ascot, Trainer Jamie Osborne is an excellent 8/36 at the track with his handicap runners over the last 5 years with a +62pts profit, 171% Yield, 3.46 A/E and 3.58 impact value AND Raising Sand’s sire Oasis Dream is excellent at Ascot, with his progeny showing a 15% strike-rate, 41pts profit and 31% Yield. I took 12’s when I discovered this the other day but the best-priced 10/1 is still worth a wager given these strong stats, found thanks to GeeGeez Gold Query Tool.

Ascot 3:35 LAKE VOLTA 33/1 and RAISING SAND 10/1

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Today’s System Selections

Fontwell 3:20 Oliver’s Hill 7/2 (System6)

Fontwell 5:05 Cevaro Mix 11/1 and Earth Moor 11/4 (System4)

 

Jumps System Trainer – Tom Lacey

Jumps System Trainer – Tom Lacey

Tom Lacey has been one of the trainers I’ve followed with massive success over the last year, especially so in both handicap hurdles and handicap Chase contests. He is a proper old-school National Hunt trainer who still rides out half-dozen or so lots each morning and never sends a horse to the races unless it’s in peak condition.

Witness his record in handicap Chase and handicap hurdle contests over the last 3 seasons with improvements in win and place strike-rates, profit and ROI, he clearly knows what he is doing.

All this found using the excellent GeeGeez Query Tool, be sure to signup  to GeeGeez Gold while there is still 20% off till next week.

If we drill down a bit deeper, we can see most of the damage has been done when 3 jockeys have been on board, Robert Dunne, Richard Johnson and Tom Scudamore.

Breaking it down we can see the bulk of the profits and higher yield comes in handicap hurdale races, despite his strike-rate being higher in handicap chase contests.

By combining handicap hurdle races with one of the aforementioned 3 jockeys, we give ourselves a very selective system indeed showing a near 34% strike-rate, +94pts profit and 152% Yield over the last 3 years!

This shows the power of GeeGeez Gold and adding this in as an “angle” enables you to track qualifiers automatically on the racecards and using the GeeGeez Query Tool. Check out the video below for more detailed information on how I have used the Query Tool to build 13 systems for both the jumps and all-weather seasons. The system rules again -:

Handicap Hurdle Races
Tom Lacey Runners
Richard Johnson, Robert Dunne or Tom Scudamore riding

The video below again shows how versatile GeeGeez Gold is, and I highly recommend a subscription as it beats the pants over competitors that are 3 or 4 times the price.

Signup here to get 20% off a 6-month subscription or try the trial for just £1 for a month.

 

 

A Golden opportunity for the jumps season

Unless you've been living under a rock in a cave on the moon this past week, you've probably seen or heard something from Matt Bisogno about either Trainer Track Stats (TTS) or Geegeez Gold.

As well as giving away TTS, Matt's just re-opened Geegeez Gold with a very special offer. Not only is he heavily discounting subscriptions to Gold, voted the best betting website for the past two years in a row, but he's also offering fast movers the chance to have a one to one consultation with him.

You can get all the details on this page >> 

In case you don't know, Geegeez Gold is a comprehensive racing and betting package that comprises state-of-the-art racecards, form tools, reports and a lot more. It's easy to navigate, easy to use, and is almost certain to move your betting up a notch.

The one to one chats with Matt will go quickly, so if you'd like the chance to speak with him about your betting, Gold, or whatever (within reason!), go here now 

As well as Geegeez Gold, Matt's delivering four ‘improve your betting' webinars for subscribers over the course of the next month; and you can try his service out for as little as one pound.

I'm not sure how long this offer will be open for but what I do know is that, when it closes, he's increasing his prices by 20%. That's not a marketing tactic – quite the opposite in fact – but it is a fact.

So if you're serious about enjoying your betting more, and making it pay, you owe it to yourself to check out Geegeez Gold and this very special offer. Click here to find out more

Since I finished my own ratings service, I have found GeeGeez Gold invaluable to determine winning trends bets this flat season and have developed over a dozen systems for the jumps and All-Weather season, which can run alongside TTS qualifiers. More about that at the weekend but I heartily recommend this as a value form book, racecard and statistic/system building tool – far, far better value than other online form services, that can give you a huge edge in your betting.

p.s. prices WILL increase next week by 20%, but you will never pay a penny more than your discounted offer price for as long as you remain a subscriber.

Go here now to get on board

 

Cambridgeshire Handicap and Haydock Trends

Cambridgeshire Handicap and Haydock Trends

Before I get stuck into the trends selections for this weekends big handicaps, be sure to download the FREE TraIner Track Stats Jumps Season 2018/19 bible. My good friend Matt Bisogno has put together an awesome list of trainers to follow along with a very informative video on how these stats were compiled and some exciting news on how you can track them automatically and a very special offer. £18k+ profit over the last 5 years at Betfair SP is something to be really interested in and I’ll be following 5es this over the jumps season combined with trends picks.

Onto Saturday’s trends, and one of the final big flat handicaps on Saturday, the Cambridgeshire where there is a clear trends qualifier, but before that let’s have a look at the two big handicaps at Haydock. There are also some Group races and you can always follow the trends here and shortlist them using GeeGeez Gold racecards, which you can subscribe to for just £1 for the first month.

Haydock 2:05 BORDERFORCE 8/1

Haydock 3:15 DAKOTA GOLD 11/2

Newmarket 3:40 MORDIN 28/1

 

Ayr Silver & Gold Cup Trends Picks

Ayr Silver & Gold Cup Trends Picks

Another nice priced 25/1 winner last weekend, let’s see if we can keep this good run going. I’ve taken a look at the trends for all the key handicaps on Saturday. All trends and analysis performed using GeeGeez Gold, get a 30-day trial for just £1 here.

Selections below…

Newbury 1:45 STYLEHUNTER 6/1 & BERINGER 12/1

Ayr 2:00 MIKMAK 12/1 

Ayr 2:40 DAKOTA GOLD 9/1 & PRIVATE MATTER 25/1

Ayr 3:50 SUMMERGHAND 33/1

The Ayr Gold Cup posed a slight conundrum, weeded it down to 4 horses, Ice Age, Kimberella, Summerghand and Golden Apollo but then we have a conundrum due to none of them hitting both of these 10/16 trends -:

10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out

So in this instance, we look at the next lot of trends down, where only the 5-year old Summerghand hits -:

9/16 – Rated 90-100
9/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/16 – Had raced at Ayr before

it would not surprise me to see Golden Apollo run well if there is a low draw bias, especially as it’s the right age, has raced at Ayr and is in the right ratings band so could be worth a win cover.

No trends for today’s Bronze Cup but I do like Hanagan on a front-runner and they outperform in this race, so GABRIAL THE DEVIL at 10/1 can go well. Best of luck with your bets.