Nice profit on Wednesday thanks to Hamada scoring at 5/2 for the 2pt win bet. So far I am really happy about the trends performance. There are a couple of decent events on Thursday and I've run the trends and arrived at a few nice selections and an ante-post Derby Punt. All I ask is you check out GeeGeez Gold as there are profits like this to be found every day using their tools and racecards.
YORK 2:20 ORIENT CLASS 1pt e/w @ 28/1
The Dante at 3:30 is reduced down to Crossed Baton, Mildenberger and Nordic Lights. Although I like the look of the Nordic Lights, I'm going to go with the Gosden runner CROSSED BATON due to the yard's recent record in the race (2 of last 3) and his decent win last time out in the Epsom Derby Trial. In fact, given that the Dante winner has placed 8 times from 16 in the Derby and 4 have won, I think it's worth an each-way punt for that race too.
YORK 3:30 CROSSED BATON 1pt win @ 11/2
Epsom Derby CROSSED BATON 1pt e/w @ 33/1
I like this style of bet as if Crossed Baton flops, then we likely lose 3pts, worse case scenario. If he wins the Dante but loses the Derby then we make some money, if he wins the Dante or runs very close and places in the Derby we make profit and if he wins both races, we are quids in…it's a calculated risk but he has some trends in his favour and I also like the breeding and the combo of Gosden/Dettori team as I think they feed off each other.
What another great result last week with a 66/1 advised each-way bet hitting the frame. The trends are holding up really well this season and you should all be making some decent profits, I know I am and am loving the ease at picking out bets using GeeGeez racecards with their TV trends. Don't forget you can signup to GeeGeez Gold here for just an initial £1 for the first 30-days – there will be some more videos coming soon focusing on the Query Tool to develop flat systems.
So, on Wednesday there is a small field handicap and a big-field handicap. Now you CAN also look at the GP2 and GP3 races on the card using GeeGeez TV Trends but I prefer to stick to the handicaps and Group 1's.
York 2:20 HAMADA 2pts win @ 5/2
York 2:55 GOLDEN APOLLO 1pt e/w @ 16/1
Hamada is a clear-cut trends pick and looks very strong. The 2:55 was not quite so clear cut. The fact that most winners were priced in single figures does cause a big of concern, but none of those runners had hit the previous, stronger trends. Tomily showed up as a contender but the fact that he is 0/2 at York and is on the cusp of the low draw AND the fact that the selection is already a C&D winner gives him the edge.
On my way back from a week of tree conservation work (and hugging!) and it was nice to see that we managed to nails 10/1 winner last week as well as the 2000 Guineas winner. I'm finding it do easy to use the trends with Geegeez Gold racecards, so much so that I have run the trends for today's big handicaps on the train back to civilization.
The Swinton is a clear trends pick whereas the Victoria Cup is less so and although I got that race down to two runners, decided to use the double-figure draw stat (last 5 winners) to get a final selection.
Haydock 3:10 ALL SET TO GO 1pt e/w @ 20/1
Ascot 4:00 SEA FOX 1pt e/w @ 66/1
Ascot 4:00 VIA SERENDIPITY 1pt win @ 20/1
The other shortlisted contender in the Victoria Cup was Via Serendipity who may be worth a small win cover at 20/1 to give low draw coverage.
I'm off for a conservation project in the Caledonian forest in Scotland for a week, with no wi-fi and mobile signal so there will be no updates for next weekend and I won't even know if any of these have won for a week…but I want to see if I can capture some Guineas cash this Saturday to pay for my week away. First of all I have looked at the trends for the Spring Lodge Stakes Handicap and the 2000 Guineas itself.
The 1000 Guineas for me is a bit of a lottery at times, I still fondly remember the 40/1 tip I gave a few years ago on Blue Bunting for Godolphin so I'm going to side with a pure gut suggestion on Sunday for a Galileo filly that is not AOB-trained.
Saturday 1:50 Newmarket
OASIS CHARM 10/1
Hits all the key trends and I like Godolphin runners at Newmarket.
The 2000 Guineas is also straightforward from a trends perspective and although Elarqaam from the Mark Johnston yard makes a shortlist, it just fails due to the amazing record of Aidan O'Brien his contender has the edge. However, the fact that 11/16 winners were having their first run of the season actually tilts the pendulum towards his ‘perhaps' perceived 2nd string -:
Newmarket 2000 Guineas
SAXON WARRIOR 7/2 – 2pts win
Sunday 1000 Guineas
LIQUID AMBER 16/1 1pt e/w
The last big chase of the season is at Sandown on Saturday, the Bet365 Gold Cup Chase. It's a real puzzle with 21-runners but that is the beauty of using the elimination trends method, you can narrow down the field pretty quickly. Let's do a full rundown using GeeGeez TV Trends and their GeeGeez Gold racecards to quickly eliminate runners that don't meet the key trends. The elimination method is really straightforward. You start with the strongest trends and rule out runners that don't hit them, then work your way down until you are left with one or two selections.
15/15 Had raced within the last 56 days. So clearly a horse needs to have some level of recent fitness. That rules out Regal Encore (70 Days), Rock The Kasbah (98 days), Present Man (83 Days), Domesday Book (408 Days), Caroles Destrier (66 Days), Relentless Dream (63 Days) and Henllan Harri (119 Days). So already we have eliminated a third of the field.
12/15 Carried 11-0 or less in weight. That only rules out top-weight Blaklion who carries 11-12 but it's another one we can remove.
12/15 Had won over 3 miles or further. In a race of this nature it's unlikely to rule out many and in this case it doesn't rule out any.
11/15 Aged 9 or younger. General need a bit of youth on your side, partly because this 3 1/2 miles with a stiff uphill finish takes some getting, but also it can come at the end of a long, hard season. We can rule out Theatre Guide (11), Houblon Des Obeaux (11), Benbens (13), Rathlin Rose (10) and Band Of Blood (10).
10/15 Priced at 14/1 or shorter in the betting. We can come back to this one, simply because we can't really tell the final SP and also, I don't want to rule out one of those 5/15 who won at greater than 14/1 that hit all the other trends bar price! This is always worth bearing in mind with this kind of analysis.
9/15 Officially Rated 140 or higher and 9/15 Had raced in the last 25 days. Now, here is where things can get complicated. If we were to go with the Official Rating of 140 or higher then it would leave us with just 2 contenders, however both of them have raced 40+ days ago. If we were to go with raced within the last 25 days it would also leave us with 3 contenders but they are rated less than 140. What I do in this situation is I eliminate horses that don't meet either of these two trends and then I carry on and maybe come back to it. So we can eliminate Minella Daddy (OR 137 and 46 Days), Sugar Baron (137 and 44 Days) and Dawson City (133 and 35 Days).
8/15 In the Top-7 in the market and finished 4th or worse last time out. So there is another price-related trend again which again I'll leave for now and just eliminate those that finished in the Top-3 last time out. That rules out Missed Approach and Step Back who both won last time out.
So, our shortlist comprises of -:
ROYAL VACATION 40/1
THE YOUNG MASTER 10/1
The value hunter in me wants to go with Royal Vacation who has first time blinkers on, however, we have to be a bit strict here. The fact is that only 5/15 have been priced higher than 14/1 and only 7 have been outside the Top-7 in the market. The biggest priced winner from that bunch was actually last year's winner Henllan Harri at 40/1, all the others were 20/1 or 25/1 so the trends point to Royal Vacation being up against it so I'll rule him out. There have been 4 repeat winners and I'm a fan of horses for courses, especially at Sandown in these conditions so previous winner THE YOUNG MASTER has to be in with a shout. I also like the fact that BIGBADJOHN only misses out by 2lbs to being officially rated 140, so I'm sometimes prepared to consider that ‘close enough' to being the strongest contender.
I'm going to go with a split-stakes trends bet here -:
Sandown Saturday Bet365 Gold Cup Chase 3:35pm
BIGBADJOHN 2pts win @ 12/1
THE YOUNG MASTER 1pts win @ 11/1
A nice little 10/1 gamble landed for Taqdeer last weekend, am a big fan of using a trends elimination method in big handicaps. Friday's Esher Cup only has 8 runners but there is a clear trends selection in the Godolphin runner DREAM WARRIOR, after running through the GeeGeez trends.
DREAM WARRIOR 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Friday Sandown 1:50)
Not only that but Charlie Appleby and Buick are bang in form right now and also have a good record at the track. Over the last 30 days Charlie Appleby runners are 12/24 which is an amazing 50% Strike-Rate, showing a +15pts profit and 1.63 A/E which means his runners are winning 63% more often than their odds suggest. Buick has a 27% S/R alone with his rides in the last 2 weeks. If that wasn't enough Dream Warrior's sire Dubawi is profitable to +50pts on flat turf with a 21% Win Strike-rate with his runners.
Keep an eye out for the trends rundown for Saturday's Gold Cup at Sandown, marking the end of the jumps season.