While I have been in Spain the last 3 weeks I have built a number of potentially very profitable jumps and All-Weather systems using GeeGeez Gold Query Tool, which is a fantastic piece of kit. More of that later.
However, I’ve also had a lot of success using the PACE and the DRAW tabs as outlined and explained by Matt Bisogno from GeeGeez in a recent, excellent video for those who signed up to download Trainer Track Stats. This will also be a huge part of my betting armoury this forthcoming jumps season so be sure to grab your free copy.
For those who haven’t had the good fortune to watch that particular video, I’ve recorded a very quick one of my own with a few races at Kempton in mind tonight. The first is at 8:45 where there is a very strong PACE/DRAW value each-way bet to be had, with GLAMOROUS DREAM at a best priced 20/1.
You can watch my brief video here explaining why I fancy Glamorous Dream to outrun her very big odds and witness the power of the PACE and DRAW info on GeeGeez racecards.
There is also a strong qualifying front-runner in the 9:15 DREAM CATCHING who has an advantageous draw in stall 12, so is well worth an each-way bet at 12/1. High drawn front runners have a 50% strike-rate, 4.25 A/E and a level stakes profit of +31pts.
SHEPHERDS PURSE may contest that lead though and at 14/1 is also worthy of a cover bet for the precise same reasons, despite not having as favourable a draw. Again, overall 6f front runners have a massive 28% strike rate, 3.11 impact value and +61pts profit so he could give Dream Catching most to do if overcoming that slightly negative mid-berth over this trip.
First day of the flat season, which is my preferred code to make profits in. I always loved to try to get my head around the Spring Mile and Lincoln Handicaps on Day 1 and today is no different. Using GeeGeez Gold I have been able to analyse the draw and pace charts in an instant and it's really interesting to note that on ground that is good to soft or softer that those that are held-up from a high draw have 3 wins and twice as many places as any other combination in these big-field mile races.
2:25 Spring Mile 1pt e/w 25/1 EXECUTIVE FORCE is ridden by Jamie Spencer so chances are he will be held up and delivered late from his high draw, also worth noting he has the highest speed figure on the GeeGeez cards. Over the last 5 years Spencer has a 20% Win S/R and 44% place S/R, showing a +34pts profit. At 25/1 I'm prepared to take an each way punt. Original Choice looks the danger and could be worth a small win cover.
3:35 Lincoln 1pt e/w 16/1 DONNCHA was beaten a neck of this mark in the Spring Mile 2 years ago on soft going and last year was 3rd in this race, beaten two necks off a 3lb higher mark on good to soft going. He has also lucked out in that he is a hold-up runner drawn high and with Andrea Atzeni doing the steering, he has a solid each-way shout. He has an even better record than Spencer at the course over the last 5 years. Fire Brigade looks the main danger under Ryan Moore and again may be worth a cover bet.
You can also view a free Trainer/Jockey Combo report every Saturday via GeeGeez
Using an elimination trends method there is one horse that stands out in terms of value for the Midlands National on Saturday. This method involves starting with strong trends and working your way down until you have eliminated all the runners that don't meet the strongest trends. The ones I looked at for this race are as follows -:
14/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
12/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Won by an Irish bred horse
11/14 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/14 – Carried 10-9 or less
10/14 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
10/14 – Officially rated 133 or less
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
That gives us a strong trends selection in 40/1 shot THEMANFROM MINELLA which is worth an each-way wager. He looks a hit or miss horse with 2 wins and a 2nd but 3 PU's from his last 6 outings, however at the prices and with him having guaranteed winning form on heavy going, I'm prepared to take a chance at the prices.
The GeeGeez Pace angles for this race suggest that Mid-Division is where you want to be and looking at the recent trainer stats and jockey stats, I must admit to liking the chances of 25/1 shot PLUS JAMALS. The trainer has a 23% Win Strike-Rate over the last month with 45% of his runners hitting the frame. The 3lb claimer Ross Chapman has a 33% strike-rate and 48% place record with his rides. Throw in the 33% Win S/R of the sire Caballo Raptor with a 67% place record and we have ourselves a solid trainer/jockey/sire stat contender at a price.
All these stats and filters can be found on GeeGeez Gold.
Time and other work have really conspired against me this week. Cheltenham analysis is a full-time job and you need a lot of luck and time to do it justice. Thankfully, the flat season is just a few weeks away and is much more reliable and profitable for me over the years, can't wait to use the power of GeeGeez Gold to unlock some value bets in the big races for the 2018 flat season. However, there is still one day left of the festival, so let's see what we can find in < 10 mins!
1:30 TRIUMPH HURDLE – MR ADJUDICATOR 1pt e/w @ 8/1
2:10 COUNTY HURDLE – MOON RACER 1pt e/w @ 22/1
2:50 ALBERT BARTLETT – ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR 1pt e/w @ 22/1
3:30 GOLD CUP – DEFINITLY RED 1pt win @ 12/1, TOTAL RECALL 1pt e/w @ 22/1
4:10 FOXHUNTERS – ON THE FRINGE 1pt e/w @ 16/1
4:50 MARTIN PIPE – BRILLARE MOMENTO 1pt e/w @ 33/1 & BRAVE EAGLE 1pt e/w @ 40/1
5:30 GRAND ANNUAL – GARDE LA VICTOIRE 1pt e/w @ 25/1
The strongest runners on Thursday's Cheltenham card simply using GeeGeez Instant Expert, eliminating all those unproven on soft going and looking for positive amongst the remainder
1:30 JLT – BENETAR 1pt e/w @ 8/1
2:10 Pertemps Hurdle – TAJBADALANDABAD 1pt e/w @ 50/1 & PROTEK DES FLOS 1pt e/w @ 20/1
2:50 RYANNAIR CHASE – FRODON 1pt e/w @ 10/1
3:30 STAYERS – UNOWWHATIMEANHARRY 1pt e/w @ 9/1
4:10 PLATE CHASE – MERCIAN PRINCE 1pt e/w @ 25/1 & POUGNE BOBBI 1pt e/w @ 33/1
4:50 MARES NOVICE HURDLE – CAP SOLEIL 1pt e/w @ 12/1
5:30 KIM MUIR – ACTINPIECES 1pt e/w @ 28/1
Due to time constraints, an even quicker review than Tuesday with just 30 minutes spent looking through all the races via GeeGeez Gold.
1:30 Ballymore Novice Hurdle – BLACK OP 2pt win 9/2 (w/o Samcro)
Tom George and Noel Fehily won the Supreme on Tuesday and they have another interesting runner in the opener on Wednesday. Samcro looks very strong but in the market without him I think the 9/2 Black Op is fair enough with no problems on going, distance or field size front.
2:10 RSA Novice Chase – BLACK CORTON 2pt win @ 9/1
On the GeeGeez Instant Expert Black Corton is green across the board with 2 course wins, form on soft, proven at the distance and in this class. For me, this looks a decent bet today. Very consistent with 16 times in the frame from 18 runs.
2:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle – SPRINGTOWN LAKE 1pt e/w @ 25/1 & LE BREUIL 1pt e/w @ 16/1
Both of these are likely to be prominent/leaders who have a positive IV here. Le Breuil also has positive sire stats overall. It's a bit of a lottery of a race but hopefully at least one of these will go close.
3:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase – AR MAD 1pt e/w @ 66/1
A few years ago I quietly fancied Ar Mad for Cheltenham before he had to miss the festival. Have not been following jumps racing and not sure what problems he has had but I do remember he was a flamboyant front-runner and has at least had a couple of fair runs this season. That style of racing could go one of two ways in this field but there are enough doubts over the front-2 in the market to take a cheeky stab at a huge price in the first time cheekpieces. Min could be the one to take advantage if the front-2 in the market fail to fire.
4:10 Glenfarclas Cross-X Chase – CANTLOW 1pt e/w @ 20/1
I remember Cantlow being favourite for this last year when placing and so this price is certainly eye-catching given his fairly consistent form in these race and the fact he acts on soft/heavy conditions.
4:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle – MERCENAIRE 1pt e/w @ 28/1
This is purely a bet based on sire stats and the trainers record at the festival. Nick Williams had a nice winner on Tuesday and he has a 7lb relative up on board this son of Soldier of Fortune, who has an amazing 22% S/R from big sample sizes both in hurdles, especially so in juvenile speed races.
5:30 Champion Bumper – HERECOMESTHEBOOM 0.5pt e/w @ 80/1
CD winner for a trainer with a good record here and in Bumpers and with horses returning after an absence.