The big handicap on Saturday is the Challenge Cup at Ascot but using the trends elimination method there are two qualifiers, interestingly they are drawn in the lowest and the highest stalks to give coverage across the track. The first is Ripp Orff in stall 1 at 8/1 but I prefer the Mark Johnston runner in stall 18, LAKE VOLTA at 33/1.
However, I am going to throw another in the mix, last year’s 3rd-placed finisher RAISING SAND is a pound lower than last year, 4lb’s if we take into account the jockeys claim. Interestingly the 1st and 2nd last year, Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters, filled the same places in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes so that form looks rock solid. Add to that the fact that Raising Sand also has two wins at Ascot, Trainer Jamie Osborne is an excellent 8/36 at the track with his handicap runners over the last 5 years with a +62pts profit, 171% Yield, 3.46 A/E and 3.58 impact value AND Raising Sand’s sire Oasis Dream is excellent at Ascot, with his progeny showing a 15% strike-rate, 41pts profit and 31% Yield. I took 12’s when I discovered this the other day but the best-priced 10/1 is still worth a wager given these strong stats, found thanks to GeeGeez Gold Query Tool.
Tom Lacey has been one of the trainers I’ve followed with massive success over the last year, especially so in both handicap hurdles and handicap Chase contests. He is a proper old-school National Hunt trainer who still rides out half-dozen or so lots each morning and never sends a horse to the races unless it’s in peak condition.
Witness his record in handicap Chase and handicap hurdle contests over the last 3 seasons with improvements in win and place strike-rates, profit and ROI, he clearly knows what he is doing.
All this found using the excellent GeeGeez Query Tool, be sure to signup to GeeGeez Gold while there is still 20% off till next week.
If we drill down a bit deeper, we can see most of the damage has been done when 3 jockeys have been on board, Robert Dunne, Richard Johnson and Tom Scudamore.
Breaking it down we can see the bulk of the profits and higher yield comes in handicap hurdale races, despite his strike-rate being higher in handicap chase contests.
By combining handicap hurdle races with one of the aforementioned 3 jockeys, we give ourselves a very selective system indeed showing a near 34% strike-rate, +94pts profit and 152% Yield over the last 3 years!
This shows the power of GeeGeez Gold and adding this in as an “angle” enables you to track qualifiers automatically on the racecards and using the GeeGeez Query Tool. Check out the video below for more detailed information on how I have used the Query Tool to build 13 systems for both the jumps and all-weather seasons. The system rules again -:
Handicap Hurdle Races Tom Lacey Runners Richard Johnson, Robert Dunne or Tom Scudamore riding
The video below again shows how versatile GeeGeez Gold is, and I highly recommend a subscription as it beats the pants over competitors that are 3 or 4 times the price.
So, we know the Grand National is a bit of a lottery, requires a tremendous amount of luck in running and even the best horse can be brought down, hampered, unseat the rider, simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So, you can look at form, profiling etc but at the end of the day, the trends can be as good a method as any – as they do tend to provide a quick and easy way to shortlist contenders from such a big field and we saw how well it has found the Irish National winner in the past, so does tend to work well in long-distance chases like these.
“Aged 10 years or younger”. Now, all of my 4 shortlisted contenders were over 10 years of age so I had to ignore this trend. The next trend was “Irish bred” – All the other 3 contenders were French-bred apart from one and it's 100/1!
DOUBLE ROSS 100/1 with Betway
paying down to 6 places is well worth an each-way bet.
The Twiston-Davies runner basically ran 4th last time at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir which was a promising run, and is another positive that a few contenders had run at the festival prior to this race. His saddled slipped and the rider lost his irons before pulling up in the 2016 Grand National. He has run ok in the Topham in the past and was 3rd in the 2016 Hennessy behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River so he does have a touch of class, is at the bottom of the weights and is as good an outside bet as any in this very open race.
Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 – Aged 10 years-old or younger (X)
· 14/27 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
In this quick video preview, I show how to use GeeGeez Gold to narrow down a race to just a few contenders and to arrive at a couple of selections. This was done very quickly but shows the power of how to use the Instant Expert and other stats to filter down a race to just a few contenders. In this video I find one solid win selection and an e/w value bet.
I've looked at the Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase at Kelso at 3pm. Let's see how they do…
The Irish National has been one of the kindest races to me over all my previous years betting, purely from an elimination trends perspective, having picked out BLUESEA CRACKER 33/1 in 2010, LION NA BEARNAI 40/1 in 2012, LIBERTY COUNSEL 50/1 in 2013 and THUNDER AND ROSES 25/1 in 2015. That's +140pts in profit in this race alone over 8 years, more if you take into account the BetfairSP's were often much bigger.
Using GeeGeez Trends and their racecards, I've managed to get it down to one strong selection and one secondary selection. I usually only advise one bet in the race as it can be such a lottery, but both look strong on a number of trends with one just failing on finishing position last time out.
First day of the flat season, which is my preferred code to make profits in. I always loved to try to get my head around the Spring Mile and Lincoln Handicaps on Day 1 and today is no different. Using GeeGeez Gold I have been able to analyse the draw and pace charts in an instant and it's really interesting to note that on ground that is good to soft or softer that those that are held-up from a high draw have 3 wins and twice as many places as any other combination in these big-field mile races.
2:25 Spring Mile 1pt e/w 25/1EXECUTIVE FORCE is ridden by Jamie Spencer so chances are he will be held up and delivered late from his high draw, also worth noting he has the highest speed figure on the GeeGeez cards. Over the last 5 years Spencer has a 20% Win S/R and 44% place S/R, showing a +34pts profit. At 25/1 I'm prepared to take an each way punt. Original Choice looks the danger and could be worth a small win cover.
3:35 Lincoln 1pt e/w 16/1DONNCHA was beaten a neck of this mark in the Spring Mile 2 years ago on soft going and last year was 3rd in this race, beaten two necks off a 3lb higher mark on good to soft going. He has also lucked out in that he is a hold-up runner drawn high and with Andrea Atzeni doing the steering, he has a solid each-way shout. He has an even better record than Spencer at the course over the last 5 years. Fire Brigade looks the main danger under Ryan Moore and again may be worth a cover bet.
You can also view a free Trainer/Jockey Combo report every Saturday via GeeGeez