A nice little 10/1 gamble landed for Taqdeer last weekend, am a big fan of using a trends elimination method in big handicaps. Friday's Esher Cup only has 8 runners but there is a clear trends selection in the Godolphin runner DREAM WARRIOR, after running through the GeeGeez trends.
DREAM WARRIOR 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Friday Sandown 1:50)
Not only that but Charlie Appleby and Buick are bang in form right now and also have a good record at the track. Over the last 30 days Charlie Appleby runners are 12/24 which is an amazing 50% Strike-Rate, showing a +15pts profit and 1.63 A/E which means his runners are winning 63% more often than their odds suggest. Buick has a 27% S/R alone with his rides in the last 2 weeks. If that wasn't enough Dream Warrior's sire Dubawi is profitable to +50pts on flat turf with a 21% Win Strike-rate with his runners.
Keep an eye out for the trends rundown for Saturday's Gold Cup at Sandown, marking the end of the jumps season.
Apart from the Scottish Grand National, I would usually be focused firmly on the flat season and the great card at Newbury, featuring the John Porter, Greenham Stakes and the Spring Cup which has been quite a good race for trends in previous years.
Finding trends qualifiers is easy with GeeGeez TV Trends and their GeeGeez Gold Racecards.
Running through the trends for the Spring Cup, there is one clear contender using the elimination method.
TAQDEER 1pt each-way @ 10/1
The Gosden/Dettori runner ran a fair 7th in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last time after a 2 year absence. The yard are in fine form, as is Dettori, and at 10/1 with a few bookies paying down to 5 places, it's a solid each-way bet.
The Scottish National also has a sole elimination trends qualifier with Irish contender -:
Ayr 4:05 Scottish Grand National
GLENCAIRN VIEW 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Betfair 5 places)
Best of luck with your bets.
So, we know the Grand National is a bit of a lottery, requires a tremendous amount of luck in running and even the best horse can be brought down, hampered, unseat the rider, simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So, you can look at form, profiling etc but at the end of the day, the trends can be as good a method as any – as they do tend to provide a quick and easy way to shortlist contenders from such a big field and we saw how well it has found the Irish National winner in the past, so does tend to work well in long-distance chases like these.
I ran the elimination method using GeeGeez Gold Racecards and their excellent Aintree trends. I managed to get down to 4 contenders until I reached the following trends -:
“Aged 10 years or younger”. Now, all of my 4 shortlisted contenders were over 10 years of age so I had to ignore this trend. The next trend was “Irish bred” – All the other 3 contenders were French-bred apart from one and it's 100/1!
DOUBLE ROSS 100/1 with Betway
paying down to 6 places is well worth an each-way bet.
The Twiston-Davies runner basically ran 4th last time at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir which was a promising run, and is another positive that a few contenders had run at the festival prior to this race. His saddled slipped and the rider lost his irons before pulling up in the 2016 Grand National. He has run ok in the Topham in the past and was 3rd in the 2016 Hennessy behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River so he does have a touch of class, is at the bottom of the weights and is as good an outside bet as any in this very open race.
Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
- 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 – Aged 10 years-old or younger (X)
· 14/27 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
The Irish National has been one of the kindest races to me over all my previous years betting, purely from an elimination trends perspective, having picked out BLUESEA CRACKER 33/1 in 2010, LION NA BEARNAI 40/1 in 2012, LIBERTY COUNSEL 50/1 in 2013 and THUNDER AND ROSES 25/1 in 2015. That's +140pts in profit in this race alone over 8 years, more if you take into account the BetfairSP's were often much bigger.
Using GeeGeez Trends and their racecards, I've managed to get it down to one strong selection and one secondary selection. I usually only advise one bet in the race as it can be such a lottery, but both look strong on a number of trends with one just failing on finishing position last time out.
The trends are as follows and can be viewed here on GeeGeez
So, from all the stats above there is one strong contender, currently priced at 50/1 and 55's currently on Betfair and it is course winner and unexposed lightweight…
WESTERNER POINT 1pt e/w @ 50/1
I'd recommend backing him with a saver on the next strongest GENERAL PRINCIPLE 1pt win @ 33/1