I took a look at some trainer and draw stats for Lingfield going back the last 5 years, so with a few races rated there on Tuesday thought it would be worth a closer look.

Now you can read all the data below and it should be able to help in picking winners at Lingfield over the winter months. It’s a very quick method when used on conjunction with the ratings, sire stats etc.

One that stands out for me on Tuesday using the info below is the Jeff Pearce runner Fantasy Ride in the 5.00 at Lingfield in stall 4. The trainer clearly does well with his runners here with a 26.67% s/r in October and an overall record at Lingfield of 14.29%, the best s/r of the trainers in the race on Tuesday. He is also ridden by the excellent Simon Pearce who is right up there with the very best amateur jockeys and well worth his 5lb claim. The sire Bahhare has the 2nd best strike-rated of 13%+ with his progeny on the all-weather so all this points to a big run.

First of all, I took a look at the record of each stall in races containing a minimum of 8 runners. The first thing that struck me was how poor a record stall 1 has at most distances. ‘In general’ the best stalls to be in are between 3 and 8. The  %’s generally start off small, then rise and fall again the higher you get, apart from the high stall 10 over 5f which has a freakishly high strike rated of 15%+ so keep an eye on how Walter Swinburn’s Master Lightfoot runs in the 5f sprint at 4.30 on Tuesday from stall 10.

I then took a look at the trainers that have a decent strike-rate between Oct and March and broke it down by month. I insisted on a minimum 10 wins in the last 5 years. W J Knight stands at the top in % terms. Over the next 3 months the guys to watch are Barry Hills, Saeed Bin Suroor, Jeff Pearce and Jeremy Noseda along with Knight of course. Gary Moore has a lot of runners and winners on the all-weather but relatively low strike-rate as a result but still worth watching, especially at the start of the year. Similar remarks apply to Kevin Ryan, Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon and John Best. The last 3 all have runners there on Tuesday.

Thought I would run this through Raceform Interactive to see if a system could be built from this. I will add this to an alert watchlist and try to post qualifiers with the following criteria that I have identified below to produce the best profits/ROI.

The first thing I thought I would do would be to look at his overall strike-rate p&l going back to 2003 and then try to filter it. 123 winners from 1007 is good on it’s own and 170.3 profit is not to be sniffed at.

To try to improve results I looked at the courses he rides best at. I focused on his strike-rate for those that finished 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd and his overall top-3 strike-rate and came up with the following, clearly he likes the Scottish air This increased the ROI to 28.2% from 16.9%.

Next I took a look at his strike-rate for certain trainers and came up with the following. I think the obvious one of Dandy Nicholls is but less so the up and coming trainers of Paul Green and Ruth Carr for whom he has a very good strike-rate indeed. Again using the trainers as a filter increases the strike-rate, ROI to 32.4% and profits.

Combining the course and trainer stats should in theory provide even better results and so it proves. 90 wins from 575 gives a 15.7% strike-rate with a massive 42% ROI !

However, the ultimate DeSousa system is to use the trainer and course filters above combined with sprints over 5f and 6f which produces an amazing 97%ROI !

The top rated runners today have almost all seen money so tomorrow I am going to test a trading strategy where I back all the top-rated runners first thing in the morning and see how much shorter they start.

Good210 MIRRORED 5.4 > 4.6
Good245 BORDERLESCOTT 4.65 > 3.85
Good325 SCHIAPARELLI 3.4 > 3.06
Good435 KHOR DUBAI 17 > 12

I can see the appeal of a regular, steady flow but it can be quite a tedious way to earn a few quid. There is a robotic-feel to staring at pure price movements and charts while betting hundreds to win a relatively small amount.

As you can see from the few screenshots below I did ok in a few markets in the practice mode of BfExplorer on Betfair but despite winning on the day I felt more knackered than on a ‘normal’ days betting and it’s certainly a fair bit more stressful.

The problem is that ‘trading’ requires a lot of focus, attention and most importantly discipline and it takes the fun out of horse racing. Of course some would argue that it’s all about making money and that is true but if it were just about that I would have stayed contracting in IT for a guaranteed wage each day ! You have to be able to enjoy your ‘work’ as well

I played about with the hedging functions and programmed a few basic ‘bots’ as well as tinkered with some automatic trading. For me the automatic trading was a struggle as it takes away the skill element and leads to unpredictable results although I am sure with more programming knowledge a successful trading strategy could be built. The potential for setting up automatic bots is endless with the software and I’ve only really scratched the surface in that respect.

I can anticipate doing trading as part of an overall strategy in conjunction with the ratings but for me it’s just too boring and tiring a way to spend a day (and evening) stealing the odd point here and there day in day out.

However, I think the software itself will prove to be invaluable for dutching, hedging and greening up on my selections from the ratings.

I do think it could be possible to trade on Monday’s and perhaps Tuesday’s though when the betting opportunities and standard of racing may not necessarily suit a pure backing strategy so I may look to do this one day a week initially.

If you want to try out the software I recommend visiting BfExplorer.net where you can download a 5-day trial of the software and make sure you use practice mode. You will also need a Betfair account which you can signup for below, new signups receive a 25GBP FREE bet when clicking on the banner below or the following link.

A great day’s racing kicks off with a 7f Heritage handicap and it looks between the 2nd and 4th in the Brittania Stakes, Secret Society and Espiritu. There is also a Godolphin runner Khor Dubai and a Fahey-trained, improving, lightweight Sioux Rising. The first thing I do is try to narrow down the field, often this consists of those in the top-3 or 4 in the ratings but I will consider others that have a bit of ‘green’ either on the T% column or the Rat figure.

We know from the Michael Bell stats analysis I did that his 3yo colts, especially at this time of year and ridden by Spencer do pretty well. We also know he has a good record with the sire Exceed And Excel and a recent 21% strike-rate at Ascot is solid. The only negs are his relatively low strike-rate with runners over 7f but that is nit-picking.

Secret Society (pictured in red) was last with 3f to run in the Brittania down the middle of the track and so was Espiritu down the far side where less runners raced. If you actually stop the video at the 7f pole, you will see Espiritu was probably in front having just shown an decent turn of foot to get there. Similarly Secret Society had come from last and possible took it up within the final furlong to only just be done by the fast-finishing Fareer.

It’s hard to split them but Espiritu is probably the value call given the likely better odds and if you include the trainer and jockey stats he would be top-rated, but there is not much between the two. However, I feel Espiratu ran a decent race as low numbers had been dominating most of the races on the straight track and he had less runners to race with on the far side.

Khor Dubai probably rates the biggest threat to the front-2, given his 3rd last time was boosted by the win of Plum Pudding in the Bunbury Cup on Friday. Godolphin runners are stepping up on what they have shown so far with victories for Kite Wood (pictured) and others. With 6 wins from their last 13 runners 10/1 looks to be fair value although Khor Dubai is some way behind the top-2 on the ratings.

You are almost always better concentrating on the higher weighted runners in decent handicaps, especially at the Grade1 tracks. Firebet, Plum Pudding are two that spring to mind but there have been quite a few other this week.

Strategies

Let’s look at the various ways to play this race and several possible outcomes looking at the current odds on Betfair and allowing for a total 20pt stake on the race.

SECRET SOCIETY – 3.95 win (1.73 place)
ESPIRITU – 4.8 win (1.92 place)
KHOR DUBAI – 10 win (3.05 place)

Now, what you do with your 20pts depends on your level of risk. Whenever anyone asks me what I fancy to win in a race I usually give at least 2 because you can never fancy any one horse to win a race with 100% confidence and strange things can and do often happen in races. You can lump the whole 20pts on Secret Society and walk away with 59pts profit or stick it on Espiritu for a 96pts profit or even Khor Dubai for 180pts profit ! However, if Spencer/Fortune or Dettori meet trouble in running/get hampered or one of the others nails them then your down 20pts. Like I said, it depends on your risk comfort level. Lets look at the various options….

Option 1 – THE DUTCH
The option I would do in quite a few cases like this where I believe I have narrowed it down to 2 runners is to dutch the top-2 to win the same amount. Obviously the bigger the field/more competitive the race, the more runners you can dutch as generally speaking the odds are usually a lot bigger. You can work out stakes using the Oddschecker Dutching calculator (pictured). In this case…

10.97pts win Secret Society @ 3.95 = 43.34pts
9.03pts win Espiritu @ 4.8 = 43.34pts

So you basically ensure a 23.34pts profit whichever selection wins the race. This means your getting just a bit less than 6/5 odds about the two runners combined. Any shorter than evens then it’s not a worthwhile option to me but everyone is different. Ideally I personally am looking for at least 2/1.

Option 2 – WIN/WIN COVER
Another popular option is the Win/Win Cover bet where you pick a main win bet and cover it with your 2nd selection. Generally speaking I always find it preferable to pick the bigger priced runner as the main selection as this ensures a bigger payout when your right.

5.1pts Secret Society @ 3.95 = 15.05
14.9pts Espiritu @ 4.8 = 56.62

So if Secret Society wins you more or less get your 20pts stake back and those scenario’s can be frustrating. If Espiritu wins you get a 51.52pts profit so a bit more than 5/2 odds which is more like what I am after and if Secret Society wins then no harm no foul and you live to bet another race.

Option 3 – WIN/PLACE DUTCH

A favourite of mine is the WIN/PLACE DUTCH. What this means is as above you pick a main win bet but instead of looking for another win bet to cover that stake you look for a place cover bet, this can often be the same selection depending on the odds. It is similar to an each-way bet but a bit smarter. Generally speaking I am looking for at least odds of even money in the place market ie. decimal odds of 2.00. In this example we can’t really do Secret Society or Espiritu (although I would consider 1.92 to be borderline in this case) but I would possibly look to the 3rd selection Khor Dubai at 3.02 in the PLACE market.

7.77pts Espiritu @ 4.8 = 37.30
12.23pts Khor Dubai @ 3.05 = 37.30

So if either of these come in you are guaranteed a profit of 17.30 which is a bit better than 5/6 combined odds which is lower than ideal for me but fits the example in this race. The real bonus though comes because (unlike the WIN/WIN dutch) you can potentially win on both bets. So if Espiritu wins and Khor Dubai places you get 17.30 x 2 = 34.60 profit which equates to just short of 7/4 odds which is more reasonable.

You can use the same horse as the place dutch, depends on your confidence in the selection and the odds but I generally find that the more competitive a race, then another runner is a little bit of a safer play. The advantage this bet has over an each-way (if you pick the same horse) is that if the field cut up and there are non-runners ie.16-runner field reduced to 13 then you still get paid out for 4 places on Betfair which is a major advantage over traditional each-way bets with traditional bookmakers. If you do not yet have an account I recommend you signup to take advantage of the much better odds and flexibility it offers. If you signup via the banner below you get a FREE 25 pounds to start you off.

Various Other Strategies

Multi-Race Dutch
These are the 3 main variations of some ways you can use the ratings and combine the top-3 on the ratings. There are a number of other methods that I use.

Often I will dutch selections across different races. So pick a horse in 2, 3 or 4 different races and dutch them to win the same amount. I really like this bet, if you get 1 come in you get a guaranteed profit but unlike a dutch in one race you can get all 2, 3 or 4 bets come in for a bumper payday. This is often a good bet if you are unable to place bets throughout the day or for TV races etc.

Taxman

Another major strategy that I employ is to put lays on my selections in-running. I often look on this as a form of tax if my selection wins and it has saved me a lot over the last few months.

I try to aim for a 10% reduction in potential profit on each runner and adjust the lay odds accordingly. There are two ways to do it, you can trade ie. lay back a bigger amount than your initial stake to ensure a profit across the field but that is really only an optimal strategy if you are ‘trading’ full time and is not suitable for my style as I cannot give it the focus it deserves. It also reduces your takeout should your original selection win the race and I find it very tedious and quite boring .

My preferred method because I usually feel confident about my ratings is to put a lay in-running on each selection at much shorter odds. This number varies depending on the original odds/stakes etc but I generally adjust to ensure a 10% reduction in profit on each selection

Using a classic race from Friday as an example..

In the 4:30 at York I quite fancied top-rated  Sabotage but recognised Akmal as a big danger so did the following….

30pts WIN SABOTAGE 6.8 = -30pts
30pts WIN AKMAL @ 5.8 +144pts

I then put 2 lays in….

60pts LAY SABOTAGE @ 1.31 +60pts
60pts LAY AKMAL @ 1.31 –18.60pts

Generally speaking I would would have laid Akmal at shorter due to having backed at shorter but I was short of time so didn’t accurately work out the exact numbers. My thinking is that if any one of the 2 lay selections gets matched and goes on to lose the race then you at least recoup the initial total stake on the race.

As the race panned out both horses fought tooth and nail with Akmal the narrow winner. Sabotage actually went as low as 1.03 and Akmal obviously hit 1.01. This is quite rare but not as rare as you might think and is a great double-bonus,  it happened twice on Friday. I like to look at it as a tax-rebate

So my 144pts profit on Akmal was reduced to 125.4pts due to the –18.60 lay being matched when it went on to win. However, I actually made 30pts on the ‘loser’ Sabotage so made an extra 11.4pts on the race to take the total winnings to just over 155pts.

These are just a few of the strategies, I am working on improving the reliability of the ratings. These are a few strategies to follow for staking and in the next few weeks I will put together how to arrive at selections for races, best bets of the day, value bets etc. Any questions, please post in the ratings thread in the forum, drop me a mail via the contacts page or pop in the chat room during racing.