It's only really when looking at trainer and jockey combinations that you really see the potential profits from statistical analysis applied to horse racing. That much is evident by the more profitable avenues that are there to explore. For sure just by focusing on one course breaks down the sample sizes but that is sometimes not such a bad thing provided you are aware of it and apply a degree of common sense and use the data alongside other methods of analysis.

ALL CHELTENHAM RACES (2006 – 2014)

ALLRACES-TrainerJockey

As we can see from the above there are quite a few to choose from. Generally speaking you should start with the high sample sizes but they are largely unprofitable apart from the marginal profitability from Henderson & Geraghty and Colin & Joe Tizzard. If we look at the mid-size samples there are quite a few more – notably the statistically significantly profitable combination of Charlie Mann & Noel Fehily, Jonjo O'Neill & Mr A J Berry or Richie McLernon, Donald McCain and Jason Maguire, the relatively new combination of Rebecca Curtis & Tony McCoy and of course Mullins and Walsh. The significant ones (bar Mann/Fehily) are all smaller sample sizes but still worth noting.

CHELTENHAM RACES by COURSE/RACE TYPE

Trainer & Jockey - Race Type

Trainer & Jockey – Race Type

First thing to point out is that it's unlikely that Paddy Brennan will be riding for Nigel Twiston-Davies again but it's there just in case they kiss and make up ! Another thing to point out is that the sample sizes are ok but also when you add in combinations like this you will see an overall bump-up in the win strike-rate. ROI sometimes suffers as a result but as you can see above there are still plenty of profitably combinations.

Over Hurdles on the OLD course on Tuesday & Wednesday it's worth paying attention to DONALD MCCAIN & JASON MAGUIRE while the aforementioned NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES & SAM TWISTON-DAVIES are worth keeping an eye on. Of course we have WILLIE MULLINS & RUBY WALSH and PAUL NICHOLLS & RUBY WALSH always worth noting those two combo's. It's likely with Ruby now focusing on Mullins runners this will be even moreso the case.

On the new course on Thursday and Friday the high strike-rate of NICKY HENDERSON & BARRY GERAGHTY also has decent profits but also check out VENETIA WILLIAMS & AIDAN COLEMAN as well as a few others in there. Perhaps TOM GEORGE & PADDY BRENNAN will improve on their profits now the latter is not tied to NTD.

Over fences at both courses consider JONJO O'NEILL & RICHIE MCLERNON in particular but also A P MCCOY and MR A J BERRY.  All 3 of those conbinations are significant although with the low sample sizes we have to take with a pinch of salt. There are not too many other options on the old course but on the new course we have a few more to choose from notably NEIL MULHOLLAND & DOUGIE COSTELLO, DONALD MCCAIN & JASON MAGUIRE and COLIN TIZZARD & JOE TIZZARD.

So to summarise by day -:

TUESDAY

DONALD MCCAIN & JASON MAGUIRE – Hurdles
NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES & SAM TWISTON-DAVIES – Hurdles
WILLIE MULLINS & RUBY WALSH – Hurdles
PAUL NICHOLLS & RUBY WALSH – Hurdles
JONJO O'NEILL & RICHIE MCLERNON* – Chases
JONJO O'NEILL & A P MCCOY* – Chases
NICKY HENDERSON & BARRY GERAGHTY – Chases

WEDNESDAY

DONALD MCCAIN & JASON MAGUIRE – Hurdles
NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES & SAM TWISTON-DAVIES – Hurdles
WILLIE MULLINS & RUBY WALSH – Hurdles
PAUL NICHOLLS & RUBY WALSH – Hurdles
JONJO O'NEILL & RICHIE MCLERNON* – Chases
JONJO O'NEILL & A P MCCOY* – Chases
NICKY HENDERSON & BARRY GERAGHTY – Chases

THURSDAY

NICKY HENDERSON & BARRY GERAGHTY – Hurdles
CHARLIE MANN & NOEL FEHILY – Hurdles
VENETIA WILLIAMS & AIDAN COLEMAN – Hurdles
REBECCA CURTIS & TONY MCCOY – Hurdles
TOM GEORGE & PADDY BRENAN – Hurdles
PAUL NICHOLLS & RUBY WALSH – Hurdles
JONJO O'NEILL & MR A J BERRY* – Chases
NEIL MULHOLLAND & DOUGIE COSTELLO* – Chases
JONJO O'NEILL & A P MCCOY – Chases
DONALD MCCAIN & JASON MAGUIRE – Chases
COLIN TIZZARD & JOE TIZZARD – Chases

FRIDAY

NICKY HENDERSON & BARRY GERAGHTY – Hurdles
CHARLIE MANN & NOEL FEHILY – Hurdles
VENETIA WILLIAMS & AIDAN COLEMAN – Hurdles
REBECCA CURTIS & TONY MCCOY – Hurdles
TOM GEORGE & PADDY BRENAN – Hurdles
PAUL NICHOLLS & RUBY WALSH – Hurdles
JONJO O'NEILL & MR A J BERRY* – Chases
NEIL MULHOLLAND & DOUGIE COSTELLO* – Chases
JONJO O'NEILL & A P MCCOY – Chases
DONALD MCCAIN & JASON MAGUIRE – Chases
COLIN TIZZARD & JOE TIZZARD – Chases

It's my belief that rather than follow trainers and jockey blindly you should use the information above and in the previous posts to help trim down a shortlist of selections you may have for a race. If you have 3 horses in a chase on the Friday that you can't choose between and one of them is one of the combinations above then you should lean more towards that contender, perhaps back the other two but have the bulk of your stake on those profitable combinations of trainer and jockey or those trainer and jockeys who excel independently at each course in a particular hurdle or chase stat.

 

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