Statistics and trends are often misused, abused and misunderstood by a large chunk of the betting community – even by those whose job it should be to analyse them and produce some worthwhile information for Joe Punter to go to war with ! Over the next few days for Premium subscribers only I am going to take a look at some of the more useful statistics for Cheltenham racecourse, not just for the festival but overall and break them down by both old course and new course, again something the vast majority fail to look at properly.

The numbers should be fairly self-explanatory. We ideally want an AE in excess of 1.00, the AE is simply┬áthe ratio of actual winners divided by the expected number of winners, based on a sum of the total odds. It basically shows they are exceeding expectations. The ChiSq% tells us whether there is any actual statistical significance there, lots of ‘peddlers' don't quote this as there are actually very few statistically significant and profitable stats in horse racing, the real strength comes in ‘combination' statistics which can be VERY profitable when used with sensible and logical filtering. There are also a lot of ‘services' who quote single figure sample sizes, again this is totally amateurish and renders a lot of the ‘figures' they churn out as pretty much meaningless. We have no choice sometimes when it comes to focusing on one particular course though and there can still be useful information to be gleaned from the data so I reserve the right to bend this usual rule I apply in this instance.

ALL CHELTENHAM RACES (2006 – 2014)

ALL Cheltenham Races

ALL Cheltenham Races

Ideally we are looking for a ChiSq% less than 5%, preferably 1% and only really Neil Mulholland and Mrs C A Coward runners are statistically significantly profitable overall at Cheltenham. There figures are largely down to the performance of two decent horses in Midnight Chase and Amicelli so again you have to take small sample figures with a pinch of salt.

In terms of big sample sizes and decent ROI you are looking at the likes of Ian Williams, Fergal O'Brien, Gordon Elliott, Jonjo O'Neill & Colin Tizzard.

However, it's worth remembering that the OLD course at Cheltenham is used on Tuesday and Wednesday with the NEW course being used on Thursday and Friday. They are similar of course but there are also some differences and different trainers, jockeys and sires can be suited better to one than the other so let's break down these stats a bit further.

CHELTENHAM RACES by COURSE/RACE TYPE

CHELTENHAM RACE TYPES

CHELTENHAM RACE TYPES

Breaking it down by course and race type gives some additional clues. Let's make it easy by breaking them down by day and focusing on those with decent proftability so you can have easy reference to the data each day with an asterisk marking a significant qualifier -:

TUESDAY

NEIL MULHOLLAND* – Chasers
IAN WILLIAMS* – Chasers
MARTIN KEIGHLEY* – Hurdlers
WILLIE MULLINS – Hurdlers
GORDON ELLIOTT – Hurdlers or Chasers
JONJO O'NEILL* – Chasers
COLIN TIZZARD – Chasers

WEDNESDAY

NEIL MULHOLLAND* – Chasers
IAN WILLIAMS* – Chasers
MARTIN KEIGHLEY* – Hurdlers
WILLIE MULLINS – Hurdlers
GORDON ELLIOTT – Hurdlers or Chasers
JONJO O'NEILL* – Chasers
COLIN TIZZARD – Chasers

THURSDAY

DAVID BRIDGEWATER* – Chasers
VENETIA WILLIAMS – Hurdlers or Chasers
NEIL MULHOLLAND – Chasers
BRENDAN POWELL – Chasers
JONJO O'NEILL – Chasers
GARY MOORE – Chasers
COLIN TIZZARD – Chasers
DONALD MCCAIN – Chasers

FRIDAY

DAVID BRIDGEWATER* – Chasers
VENETIA WILLIAMS – Hurdlers or Chasers
NEIL MULHOLLAND – Chasers
BRENDAN POWELL – Chasers
JONJO O'NEILL – Chasers
GARY MOORE – Chasers
COLIN TIZZARD – Chasers
DONALD MCCAIN – Chasers

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