The Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (formerly Windsor Forest) is the third race on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot. A group 2 for fillies & mares, run over 1M, the Dahlia & Princess Elizabeth Stakes have proven the most popular prep races for this, whilst carrying a penalty has proven beyond the 12 runners who’ve done so in past 10 runnings.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 8-11-78

5yo: 1-8-26

6yo+: 1-1-4

8 of 10 winners (last 6) were aged 4, though 4yos have represented 73% of total runners.

2 of 2 winners aged 5+ finished 3rd in previous year’s Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

 

Penalties

Horses carrying 5lb penalty: 35468975 (0-1-8)

Horses carrying 3lb penalty: 6042 (0-1-4)

All 12 runners to carry a penalty (including 2 unplaced favourites) have been beaten and only 2 made the places.

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners had 1 run that season (2 exceptions ran 2 & 4 times that season)

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group 3 last time (exception 4th in Lockinge)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 103+ last time

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ in last 3 starts

8 of 8 winners aged 4 had had 6 to 12 career starts

2 of 2 winners aged 5+ had had 18 to 19 starts

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a group race

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in first 5 in a group 1

 

Other Races

Previous season's Duke Of Cambridge Stakes winner (Integral): 2 (0-1-1)

Record of 2nd or 3rd from Princess Elizabeth Stakes: 141513412 (4-2-9)

Record of 2nd, 3rd & 4th from previous Sun Chariot: 49121721 (3-1-7)

Dahlia Stakes winner (Bragging): 565221539 (1-3-9)

Valiant Stakes winner (Euro Charline): 27169 (1-1-5)

Previous season's Coronation Stakes winner (Rizeena): 65 (0-0-2)

Sun Chariot Stakes winner (Integral): 485 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in Princess Elizabeth Stakes, finishing 2332

2 of 10 winners ran in Dahlia Stakes, finishing 12

3 of 10 winners ran in Falmouth Stakes, finishing 124

3 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous Sun Chariot Stakes, finishing 442

3 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous Coronation Stakes, finishing 146

3 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous year's 1000 Guineas, finishing 052

2 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous Sandringham Stakes, finishing 41 (off marks of 107 & 104)

2 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in Atalanta Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in Nassau Stakes, finishing 37

2 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in Coral Distaff, finishing 11

2 of 2 winners aged 5+ ran in previous year’s race, finishing 33

 

Trainers

British trained runners: 7-15-85

Irish trained runners: 2-2-11

French trained runners: 1-3-11

German-trained runners: 0-0-1

Michael Stoute (3-4-10) has trained 3 of the last 10 winners, and seen 7 of his 10 runners make the places. His last 2 winners ran in Dahlia Stakes last time.

John Gosden (2-0-3) has trained 2 winners from just 3 runners. His 2 winners were aged 4, prepped in Princess Elizabeth Stakes and ran in previous year’s Coronation & Falmouth Stakes.

Alain De Royer-Dupre (1-1-3) trained Sabana Perdida to finish 3rd & 1st in 2007 & 2008.

Mick Channon (0-1-6) has saddled a placed finisher from 6 runners.

 

Price

No strong trends on prices, 6 of 10 winners were priced between 2/1 & 5/1 and the other 4 were priced between 10/1 & 14/1.

Favourites (3-3-12) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a £1 level stakes loss of £3.04 over past 10 years.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 4 (or aged 5+ that has finished in first 3 in this race in 2014)

Carrying 9-0

Has run once in 2015

Finished in first 3 in group 3 last time

Posted an RPR of 109+ in at least one of last 3 runs

Ran in past 50 days

Won over 1M

Previously won a group race

Finished in first 5 in a group 1

Finished in first 3 in Dahlia or Princess Elizabeth Stakes last time

Finished in first 5 in Sun Chariot and/or 1000 Guineas in 2014

Finished in first 4 in Sandringham, Duke Of Cambridge or Coronation Stakes last year

Trained by Michael Stoute or Alain De Royer-Dupre

 

Carl's Analysis

Trends from 13

10 – INTEGRAL

8 – EURO CHARLINE, RIZEENA

6 – AMAZING MARIA, BRAGGING

4 – CLADOCERA, LIGHTING THUNDER

For trends alone Integral.

For form you have Euro Charline

For ability Rizeena

For probability Bragging, Cladocera and Integral.

However Integral has the best profile and has a good mixed bag of stats.

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