This year’s Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 6th June. In the past 10 years the Dante and 2000 Guineas have proven the key trials for the race, with 8 of last 10 winners having finished in first three in one of those 2 races.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:
Race for 3yos
British bred: 5-9-54
Irish bred: 5-9-61
American bred: 0-2-14
German bred: 0-0-3
French bred: 0-0-6
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+
10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
6 of 10 winners were out of a sire that won a class 1 race as a 3yo (3 of 4 others were out of an unraced mare, other was placed in a listed as a 3yo).
Progeny of Montjeu (4-2-22) have won 4 of last 10 and the progeny of Galileo (3-4-25) have won 2 of last 10, both having had 21 representatives.
Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.07
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.24
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that year
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that year
6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ last time (8 of 10 posted RPR of 118+)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn't run in a group 1 as a juvenile)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
8 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
4 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (5 exceptions finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
8 of 9 winners that ran as 2yos had first run over 7F or 8F (7 of those 8 at a group 1 track)
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 37 times before winning the race. In those 37 starts they had finished outside the first 3 only twice, both occasions were on their racecourse debut as 2yo.
Racing Post Trophy winner (Elm Park): 11612 (3-1-5)
National Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 310 (1-1-3)
Beresford Stakes winner (Ol' Man River): 020140 (1-1-6)
Tyros Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 14 (1-0-2)
Juvenile Turf Trial Stakes winner (John F Kennedy): 41 (1-0-2)
Frank Conroy EBF Maiden winner (Hall Of Fame): 10 (1-0-2)
Futurity Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 0P1 (1-0-3)
Vintage Stakes winner (Highland Reel): 107 (1-0-3)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Epicuris): 926 (0-1-3)
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh in July, finishing 141
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
Dante Stakes winner: 10120362 (2-3-8)
2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 110 (2-0-3)
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 0110451 (3-0-7)
Chester Vase winner (Hans Holbein): 605450250 (1-1-10)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Sumbal): 51 (1-0-2)
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Success Days): 430325648 (0-3-9)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Kilimanjaro): 0936702 (0-2-7)
Ballysax Stakes winner (Success Days): 248 (0-1-3)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Best Of Times): 00 (0-0-2)
Galinule Stakes winner: 04 (0-0-2)
Feilden Stakes winner (Golden Horn): 007 (0-0-3)
Investec Derby Trial winner (Christophermarlowe): 00890 (0-0-5)
5 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 22113
3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 112
Irish-trained runners: 5-9-54
British-trained runners: 4-10-76
French-trained runners: 1-1-7
Aidan O’Brien (3-7-45) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but went 9 years without a win before landing the last 3 renewals with Camelot, Ruler Of The World & Australia.
Michael Stoute (1-3-7) has won the race 3 times since 2002 and his first strings have a record that reads 2110212 (3-3-7) since 2000.
Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-3), Jim Bolger (1-0-3), Michael Bell (1-0-3) and Andre Fabre (1-0-4) have also all won the race in the past 10 years.
David Lanigan (0-1-1), Roger Varian (0-1-1), Dermot Weld (0-1-2) and David Wachman (0-1-2) have all saddled 1 placed finisher since 2005.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-5) gained his only win in the race with Lammtarra in 1995 but has seen just 1 of his 5 runners in past 10 years make the places.
John Gosden (0-1-7) last won this with Benny The Dip in 1997 but only Romsdal (in 2014) has made the places of his last 7 runners.
Pour Moi in 2011 became first French-trained winner since 1976. In the past 50 years there have been 4 French-trained winners. 3 of the 4 ran in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as 2yos and all 4 had either won the Prix Gruffelhe or finished in first 4 in Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).
8 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
The other 2 winners tracked the leader(s).
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 7/1 or below.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of last 10 & show a small level stakes profit of 0.25 since 2005.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+
– Sons of Montjeu & Galileo do well
– Out of a mare that won a class 1 race as a 3yo (or was unraced)
– Approximate Dosage index of 1.07
– Approximate Centre of Distribution of 0.24
– Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
– Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
– Run once or twice in 2015
– Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
– Had run in the past 35 days
– Won last time out (or finished 2nd/3rd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
– Posted an RPR of 112+ last time (ideally posted RPR of 118+ last time)
– Previously won a group race
– Had won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
– Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
– Won over 1M 2F as a 3yo (or finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas)
– Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
– Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as a 3yo
– Hold up horses favoured
– Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
– Priced 7/1 or below
Tends from 21!!! Here goes…..
14 – GOLD HORN
13 –ELM PARK, JACK HOBBS
12 – GIOVANNI CANALETTO, HANS HOLBIEN
10 – KILAMANJARO
9 – STORM THE STARS
8 – ROUGE RUNNER
Sad Ken is all over Golden Horn and Elm Park scoring 5 and 4 from a total of 6 respectively, with Jack Hobbs and Hans Holien as the form and speed horses with the fore mentioned.
I cannot add any more to Dave’s superb write up of the Derby, but where should one focus considering these trends, with the top rated missing 7 of them. Therefore, dosage should be the main focus as key primary trends.
The shortlist that Dave has confirmed looking at the same information source for dosage.
ELM PARK, GIOVANNI CANALETTO, ROUGE RUNNER & STORM THE STARS
I will side with Elm Park and at the price e/w Rouge Runner