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Placepot Strategies

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1:30 pm
28 August 2009


Dave

Admin

posts 2315

Post edited 12:45 pm – 28 August 2009 by Dave


My own idea with the placepot is to adopt an aggressive strategy. What I mean is not to overbet or pick too many selections in each race. Why, well look at the following two perms… 

3×2×1×1×1×1 = 6 x 1pt = 6pts      (9 horses)
4×3×2×2×2×2 = 192 x 1pt = 192pts  (15 horses)

So the latter perm costs you x32 times more but only adds another 6 horses into the mix.

Any meeting will vary with the amount of runners but on a busy weekend you can be looking at 70+ horses. The 2nd perm therefore could possibly only give you 6-7% more coverage yet costs you a lot more than that in % terms.  

So I am going to try to pick 4 bankers, save the 3 selections for what I consider to be the most competitive race of the day with the 2 selections being in the next most competitive. I'll monitor this for a few weeks and then look to adjust if it's 'too' aggressive.

Someone pointed me to the following article which I have summarised below so I will track this as well over the next few weekends…

http://www.racing.u-net.com/sy…..l#Cracking The Placepot

The perm we use in this plan uses 36 lines, at 25p unit stake the bet costs just £9.00. It consists of a single selection in two of the races, two selections in another two races, and three selections in the remaining two races. 1×1×2×2×3×3=36 bets.

Now to make our selections for the perm. If you are an experienced student of form you can add your own knowledge to the selection process, but here we are going to base our selections on S.P. forecasts. Using the morning betting forecasts is a very reliable selection method to use with this plan.

Here's what to do:

  1.     Look at the s.p. forecasts for the six races concerned. Look for the two races with the shortest priced favourites. These will be (hopefully) the most reliable favourites of the day, and even if they don't win, they should place. These act as our "single" entries in the perm.
  2. Select the two races with the biggest fields, they are usually big handicap races, and are always the hardest to select winners in. Take the first three horses in the betting forecast in each of these races, they will be our "three" selections in the perm.
  3.    Obviously in the remaining two races, we use the first two in the betting forecast as our "two" selection elements in the perm

2:27 am
29 August 2009


Dave

Admin

posts 2315

The following appears courtesy of the Sporting Life website…

2009 average toteplacepot dividends-A-Z racecourse guide (up to and including Monday August 24th)

A/W venues:

Lingfield (£230.45-45 meetings)

Kempton (£518.90-48 meetings)

Southwell (£221.94-43 meetings)

Wolverhampton (£292.79-52 meetings)

Flat venues:

Ascot (£1,242.13-13 meetings)

Ayr (£119.32-8 meetings)

Bath (£201.87-16 meetings)

Beverley (£232.23-15 meetings)

Brighton (£249.23-16 meetings)

Carlisle (£196.56-8 meetings)

Catterick (£95.43-11 meetings)

Chepstow (£176.22-12 meetings)

Chester (£220.96-11 meetings)

Doncaster (£316.05-16 meetings)

Epsom (£165.74-9 meetings)

Ffos Las (£58.10-1 meeting)

Folkestone (£744.70-12 meetings)

Goodwood (£459.27-15 meetings)

Hamilton (£186.60-16 meetings)

Haydock (£553.41-17 meetings)

Leicester (£158.46-14 meetings)

Lingfield (£297.32-4 meetings)

Musselburgh (£232.46-14 meetings)

Newbury (£1,661.24-13 meetings)

Newcastle (£195.26-14 meetings)

Newmarket (July Course–£1,378.73-17 meetings)

Newmarket (Rowley Mile–£488.83-10 meetings)

Nottingham (£2,973.78-15 meetings)

Pontefract (£196.46-12 meetings)

Redcar (£183.12-12 meetings)

Ripon (£654.01-13 meetings)

Salisbury (£135.94-13 meetings)

Sandown (£231.46-16 meetings)

Thirsk (£235.13-12 meetings)

Warwick (£313.21-9 meetings)

Windsor (£212.97-23 meetings)

Yarmouth (£1,308.36-18 meetings)

York (£549.20-14 meetings)

N/H venues:

Aintree (£1,163.47-6 meetings)

Ascot (£65.23-3 meetings)

Ayr (£1,195.00-9 meetings)

Bangor (£132.53-10 meetings)

Carlisle (£275.78-5 meetings)

Cartmel (£346.83-4 meetings)

Catterick (£2,133.52-4 meetings)

Cheltenham (£780.11-10 meetings)

Chepstow (£135.36-8 meetings)

Doncaster (£1116.06-6 meetings)

Exeter (£528.87-7 meetings)

Fakenham (£370.74-7 meetings)

Folkestone (£120.93-5 meetings)

Fontwell (£239.68-14 meetings)

Ffos Las (£843.30-1 meeting)

Haydock (£262.25-4 meetings)

Hereford (£421.83-8 meetings)

Hexham (£391.99-9 meetings)

Huntingdon (£134.02-8 meetings)

Kelso (£230.05-8 meetings)

Kempton (£535.41-7 meetings)

Leicester (£52.85-2 meetings)

Lingfield (£70.70-2 meetings)

Ludlow (£446.25-8 meetings)

Market Rasen (£142.35-13 meetings)

Musselburgh (£157.86-4 meetings)

Newbury (£44.28-5 meetings)

Newcastle (£353.54-5 meetings)

Newton Abbot (£98.74-17 meetings)

Perth (£118.31-10 meetings)

Plumpton (£434.50-8 meetings)
Sandown (£199.26-6 meetings)

Sedgefield (£134.45-9 meetings)

Southwell (£1,437.34-12 meetings)

Stratford (£209.73-14 meetings)

Taunton (£84.79-9 meetings)

Towcester (£506.58-11 meetings)

Uttoxeter (£170.34-15 meetings)

Warwick (£111.30-4 meetings)

Wetherby (£219.87-7 meetings)

Wincanton (£277.16-10 meetings)

Worcester (£169.02-12 meetings)

Mixed flatmeetings (Turf & A/W):

Lingfield (£259.74-14 meetings)

Mixed meetings (NH & flat):

Haydock (£443.40-1 meeting)

Sandown (£66.60-1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend this year up until the end of racing on Monday August 24 stood at £418.48 (973 meetings

8:29 pm
1 September 2009


louis

FB Bronze Member

posts 140

Can someone clarify for me? I understand what the placepot is all about but I am a bit confused over what a 'line is or a perm? and how would you place the bets ? I have not done a placepot bet before but could adapt my ratings to 'give it a go'

Sorry for being a bit dim but better to ask than to assume!!!

Thanks for your help

10:16 pm
1 September 2009


BrianH

Member

posts 938

Basically, the Placepot is a bet made up from selecting horses from the first six races at a meeting, to be placed either 1-2-3. (This is dependent on number of runners in a race – I'll explain later).

For example, take Kempton tomorrow night, you can select one horse or more per each race, this number will determine your number of lines or perm (same thing basically). It will also ultimately determine your stake.

Race 1.  You select two horses – Numbers 1 and 2

Race 2.  You select two horses again – Numbers  4 and 7

Race 3 . You select one horse – Number 1

Race 4. You select one horse – Number 5

Race 5. You select three horses – Numbers 1,2 and 3

Race 6. You select two horses. – Numbers 3 and 6

So using the number of horses selected (bold and underlined)

your line would be 2 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 x 2 = 24 lines.   Whatever number of horses you select per race, just multiply as per this example.

The Placepot payout is made to stakes of £1 per line. So the above line/perm of 24 lines would cost you £24. i.e. 24 lines x £1 = £24

However, you can place the bet in multiples of 10p also, e.g. 10p, 20p, 30p, 40p, 50p.

So the same 24 lines could be staked at say 30p per line, which equates to 24 x 30p = £7.20

But bear in mind that if you place a bet of say 30p per line, your payout would only be 3/10 of the total Placepot payout. Thats to say if the payout was £100 to a £1 stake, your payout would only be £30 for your 30p stake per line.

Number of runners in a race also determines how many places are covered by the bet.

In a race of 4 or less runners the bet only pays on the Winner of the race.

In a race of between 5 and 7 runners the bet pays on the 1st and 2nd finishers.

In a race with 8 or more runners the bet pays on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd finishers.

In a race which is a Handicap with 16 or more runners the bet pays on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th finishers.

Also, if any of your selections happens to become a non-runner your selection is automatically switched to the Favourite in the race, and in the eventuality of joint favourites you go on the one with the lowest racecard number.

Hope this helps, rather than confuses.

10:42 pm
1 September 2009


louis

FB Bronze Member

posts 140

Brian,

       Thanks for that. I understand now. So if any of your selections 'place' you then go through to the next race and so on. So how would you place a bet ? Can you do it online ?

Cheers

11:10 pm
1 September 2009


Dave

Admin

posts 2315

Yeah Louis, you need one to at least place in each race.

Most bookmakers allow you to put on a placepot bet. I sometimes use Bet365 as I find their interface easy but I believe it is available via the Tote menu on Betfair and sometimes Totesport offer cashback on placepots at the big meetings as they did at York.

Dave

2:19 am
4 September 2009


Dave

Admin

posts 2315

A few tables solely related to the favourites, since the start of 2008, too tired to analyze right now but might help in races to avoid or pick favs if faced with tough decision..

Starting with comparison between non hcap and hcap within race codes…

So for example in hurdles races a non-handicap hurdler is over 26% likelier to place in the first 3 than a handicap hurdler.

A non-handicap hurdle favourite is 10% likelier to win than a bumper horse and 14% likelier to place in the first 3.

Also a handicapper on the all-weather has an 11% better chance of placing in the first-3 than a handicap hurdler.

Non H/C v H/C Codes

Field Size in relation to % of fav's in 1st 3 positions in non h/c and hcap races…

How best to use this could be to compare to the overall record of favourites in handicaps or non-handicaps with their overall average of placing…

For example, we know that 'on average' 75.43% of non-hcap favourites placed in the first 3 so the cutoff could be 11 runners when considering to omit the favourite as they only place 69.34% of the time and start to deteriorate obviously as the field size rises to 12, 13 and so on. 

In terms of handicap favourites we know that 'on average' the favourite makes the first 3 only 58.83% of the time. We can see below that once again the cutoff seems to be 11 runners when that dips below with a 56.02% record and get decreasingly worse, hardly surprising due to the competitive nature of big field handicaps.

To summarise I would say that you should look to be swerving the favourite or at least giving serious consideration to other runners in field sizes of 11 runners or more and obviously be contemplating to include a favourite in a 10 runner or less race, particularly in non-handicap races.

Fav Non H/C by Field Size

Fav H/C by field size

In my next post I'll break down each race code by course but all comments and ideas of areas to research appreciated…

1:31 pm
6 September 2009


Dave

Admin

posts 2315

I've analyzed all my placepots up to date and have realised a few things. 

1) Using the betting forecast, whether it be Sporting Life, Racing Post or whatever is not an option for a quick & dirty (q&d) selection method. I need reliability so am using Oddschecker and only viewing Betfair prices and selecting horses from different positions of the betting determined by the a) the type of race and b) the amount of runners

2) Now that I have cut out one of the Q&D methods I can re-adjust my perms. For the Q&D I am going to increase one of my lines with 2 selections and increase to 3, this will now give  me 54 lines @ 10p for a 5.40 stake. My 'ratings' method will now also have one of the lines with 2 selections increased to 3 and I will reduce the stake so giving 12 lines @ 50p for a 6 stake. So this will mean a total of 11.40 on each meeting which I'm happy with.

3) I also was getting frustrated in the Q&D method when I picked a fav and another selection where the other selection was a non-runner. To me this was wasting a line so I have adjusted slightly so there will be no doubling up of the fav in case of a non runner by making my solitary single selection the favourite and all the other selections non-favs. This may cut down slightly on the amount of winning placepots but when they hit they should hit fairly big.

1:36 pm
6 September 2009


seanstar

Member

posts 1195

interesting dave, will see how you get on today…I will have a review all things bright and beautiful tonight…as yesterday I think following this sort of theory I would of cleaned Haydock and Kempton!

Try not to become a man of success but a man of value.

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