The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is the highlight on day 3 of Cheltenham’s November meeting, on Sunday 16th November. It is a 2M 110y handicap hurdle and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 3-7-36
5yo: 4-9-48
6yo: 2-5-31
7yo: 1-1-19
8yo: 0-3-13
9yo+: 0-1-12

4 & 5 year olds have won 7 of last 10 from just over 52% of total runners.
Of the ten 4yos to make the frame, 8 had run on the flat, with 6 of those rated 80+ on the level and the other 2 were winners in France with no rating in Britain or Ireland. 4 of the 10 ran in Triumph Hurdle that year (including 2 winners) and 2 had run in Fred Winter.
In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (went on to finish 2nd in Champion Hurdle and win grade 1 Aintree Hurdle that season) & Rooster Booster in 2002 (who won Champion Hurdle later that season).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 5-6-42
Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 1-9-51
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-11-66

Preference is for higher weights, horses carrying 11-4+ have won 5 of 10 from less than 27% of total runners.

Top Weight: 4012820318087 (2-3-12) have a good record, having won 4 of the last 12.
Horses carrying a penalty (0-3-4) have gained 5 places from 6 runners since 2003.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or more: 6-11-55
Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-11-77
Horses rated 129 or less: 2-4-27

Horses officially rated 140+ have won 6 of last 10 from approximately 34.6% of total runners.

9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high mark in a handicap hurdle (although 7 of 10 winners were making their handicap hurdle debut)

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed hurdles start (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (1 exception was Olofi who was 5th & 2nd in two previous runnings)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 9 times over hurdles (8 of 10 had run in 3 to 6 hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles (exception had run in 8 previously)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (9 had yet to win a handicap hurdle)
7 of 10 winners were running in their first handicap hurdle
6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (5 who had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)
3 of 10 winners had won a bumper in Ireland
9 of 10 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start

7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better hurdle (1 exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)

Other Races

Record of horses that finished in first 9 in Triumph Hurdle: 251850712 (2-2-9)
Highest placed finisher from Anniversary 4YO Hurdle: 272170 (1-2-6)
Share.com More People H'cap Hurdle winner (Existas): 20 (0-1-2)
AP Security Juvenile Handicap Hurdle winner (Raven's Tower): 09 (0-0-2)
Giftofracing.co.uk Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle winner (Roman Flight): 708 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Top Novices' Hurdle, finishing 29
2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 19
3 of last 4 winners aged 6+ ran in County Hurdle, finishing 100
6 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 16th in County Hurdle, 13th & 1st Supreme and 1st & 9th Triumph)

Trainers

Philip Hobbs (2-0-15) has trained the winner in 2002, 2006 & 2010.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-11) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 12 runners since 2003.
Gary Moore (1-2-8) saddled the winner in 2008 and also had 2 other placed finishers since 2004.
Tom George (1-1-3), David Pipe (1-1-7) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) have also trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Venetia Williams (0-1-1), Willie Mullins (0-1-3) and Nicky Henderson (0-1-5) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.
Irish based trainers (2-3-32) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals. Both Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle in April/May and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners were held up early on (the two winners that raced prominently throughout were top class grade 1 hurdlers Detroit City & Sizing Europe).

Price

10 of 10 winners were sent off at 12/1 or lower
Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, 6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.
Favourites (2-3-12) have won 2 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes loss of 3.47.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 5 or a 4yo that is rated 80+ on flat & ran in 2014 Triumph or Fred Winter Hurdle
– Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)
– Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won an Irish bumper)
– Finished in the first two on last NH start (ideally in a class 1 hurdle)
– First or second season hurdler (or placed in this last year)
– Previously run 3 to 6 times over hurdles
– Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (handicap debutante favoured)
– Yet to win a handicap hurdle
– Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better
– Ran in a class 1 hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival
– Tends to be held up
– Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Tom George or Gary Moore
– Priced 12/1 or shorter
– See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/greatwood-hurdle-trends-2014-1415662270#sthash.l5VzGNJp.dpuf

 

SUMMARY

Trends are an excellent tool to add to your betting armoury and can help narrow down a race in a matter of 10 minutes quick research. Using the 10/10 and 9/10 elimination trends gets me down to an initial 3 -:

VANITEUX 9/2
BLUE HERON 16/1
BARADARI 12/1

Looking at the balance of 8/10 and 7/10 trends gives me just the one contender who has won a Class 2 or better hurdle and having his first handicap hurdle start and it's BLUE HERON for the in-form Skelton team who looks a value trends pick at 16/1.

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