The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 29th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In past 10 years, Denman & Bobs Worth have both won this race en route to winning the Cheltenham Gold later in the season.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-2

6yo: 3-9-27

7yo: 5-8-59

8yo: 1-2-24

9yo: 1-5-42

10yo: 0-3-16

11yo+: 0-1-7

6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-86) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-11-91).

Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-11-52

Horses carrying less than 11-0: 3-17-125

Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 9 winners all carrying 11-1 or more, in 2 other years there have only been 3 horses carrying 11-0+, 2 of those 3 were placed.

Top Weight: 91P1313P20 (3-3-10) has gained 3 wins and 3 places in last 8 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 153 or higher: 4-9-39

Horses rated 136 to 152: 6-13-119

Horses rated 126 to 135: 0-3-19

The last 9 winners were officially rated 145 or higher.

Horses rated 160+ have gained 3 wins & 2 places from 12 runners.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run since 1st June

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in previous year's Hennessy)

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed start (2 others posted RPR of 139+)

9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 14 times over fences (exception placed in previous renewal)

8 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their chase starts

7 of 10 winners had run in 0 or 1 previous handicap chases

 

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences

9 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a graded chase

6 of 10 winners were second season chasers (other 4 were 3rd or 4th season chasers)

6 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M4F or further at Newbury (other 4 were having first chase start here)

 

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Triolo D'Alene): 30 (0-1-2)

Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this: 161P22P18 (3-2-9)

IJF 50th Anniversary Novices' Chase winner (Smad Place):  P110 (2-0-4)

Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Sam Winner): 3U24 (0-3-4)

December Novices' Chase winner (Black Thunder): 2P2 (0-2-3)

Bet365 Gold Cup winner (Hadrian's Approach): 672 (0-1-3)

Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Just A Par): 350 (0-1-3)

Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): PP (0-0-2)

United House Gold Cup winner (What A Warrior): U6 (0-0-2)

Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 0P (0-0-2)

Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase winner (Many Clouds): 80 (0-0-2)

Coolmation Graduation Chase winner (Hadrian's Approach): 56 (0-0-2)

4 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P1

3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Feltham, finishing 253

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in IJF 50th Anniversary Novices' Chase, finishing 11

2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in RSA at novices, finishing 14

2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in United House Gold Cup, finishing 63

 

Running Style

9 of 10 winners (last 9) raced in touch or with the leaders throughout

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (3-3-12) saddled the winner in 2005, 2012 & 2013 and a placed finisher in 2006 & 2010.

Paul Nicholls (2-7-24) has won the race 3 times in past 11 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out in 2008.

David Pipe (1-3-10) trained a winner and 3 placed finishers in past 7 years.

Evan Williams (1-0-4) trained the winner in 2006.

Philip Hobbs (0-3-10) last trained the winner in 2001 and trained 2nd & 3rd in 2011.

Emma Lavelle (0-1-2), Mouse Morris (0-1-2) & Colin Tizzard (0-1-3) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 2 renewals.

 

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter

No massive trend on the prices though the first 4 in the betting have been responsible for 7 of the last 10 winners.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 2.00.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 6 or 7

– Carrying 11-0+

– Officially rated 145 to 161

– Run in 3 to 14 chases (winning at least 40%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy

– Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M+

– Previously won a graded chase

– Finished in the first 3 last time out

– Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start

– Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 8)

– Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)

– Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA and/or Feltham Chase or

– Third or fourth season chaser that ran in United House Gold Cup last time

– Tends to race prominently

– Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs

 

Carl’s Analysis

Results of the trends are as follows from thirteen.

11 – ANNACOTTY

10 – MANY CLOUDS, SMAD PLACE

9 – BALLYNAGOR, ROCKY CREEK

8 – TRIO D’ALENE, UNIONIST

The only two that have the Sad Ken confirmation from the strictest rules are SMAD PLACE and TRIO D’ ALENE. The form and speed horse, being SMAD PLACE.

The trends point strongly at horses that have run in 3 -14 chases or ran in the previous Hennessy. The two that satisfy both the criteria is ROCKY CREEK and TRIO D’ ALENE. In addition these two fought out the finish in last year’s race.

So who is ready for this MANY CLOUDS had a career best lto and has been raised 7lbs, with decent profile, listed as the second form and speed horse.

SMAD PLACE’s last win at Cheltenham last season was a career best and is also up 7lbs, with a slightly better profile, but did it run to its class is questionable then.

ANNOCOTTY? Won a graded chase in Novice Company, but is he ready for this?

ROCKY CREEK had a run last week and a credible 2nd, with no penalty.

TRIO D’ALENE, no form since the last Hennessy, so a bit of an unknown.

This will definitely be a good race to watch, as always, but what’s my choice of the 19 runners.

Sensibility tells me to split stakes on Rocky Creek, Many Clouds and Smad Place.

To choose 1, will have to be SMAD PLACE.

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