Thought I would put up very brief analysis of the one big handicaps at Cheltenham each day based on Sad Ken analysis, which you can read all about here.

Now, I absolutely love watching the Cheltenham festival, but some people take it far too seriously betting-wise and often either end up doing their nuts through overstaking or just end up following short-priced favourites and wondering why they have not shown a profit by the end of the week. The fact is that it should be viewed as pure entertainment, first and foremost with a tidy profit a ‘nice-have' over the 4 days. A 10/1 winner at Southwell pays the same as a 10/1 winner at Cheltenham but is actually far easier to find on the Fibresand. It is only 4 days out of 365 so it's worth keeping some perspective and not get carried away by bookmaker (and affiliate) hype which is rampant through the week.

I have put up some value bets of my own to subscribers on the private forum at huge prices based on my ratings, stats and pure gut feeling….it's only available to 1-month and 6-month members but I also follow a few systems, previously mentioned on the blog – like the Market+Ratings guide to Graded Hurdles, the Hobbs/Johnson system and of course the Sad Ken quick ratings method. All have their place, they build a nice systematic portfolio approach that has a good chance of showing a combined profit over the whole season, not just 4-days of highly competitive action!

So keep your stakes consistent, keep your number of bets fairly low and just enjoy the spectacle first and foremost.

The followed ‘Sad Ken' analysis takes me literally 5 minutes with the FormBet ratings. Ideally we should have between 8-10 bets over the 4 days and with a bit of luck be able to show a profit by the end of the festival.

Tuesday's race is the 2:50 at Cheltenham and here are the qualifiers on each of the 6 Criteria that I choose to use for Sad Ken analysis.

1) Top-8 in Betting

KRUZHLININ
MORNING ASSEMBLY
THE YOUNG MASTER
OUT SAM
HOLYWELL
THEATRE GUIDE
CAROLES DESTRIER
BEG TO DIFFER

2) Probability, Ability & Consistency

OUT SAM
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT
OUT SAM

3) TOP4 of FBR

KRUZHLININ
MORNING ASSEMBLY
THE YOUNG MASTER
OUT SAM

4) TOP4 of PACEIMP

KRUZHLININ
OUT SAM
CAROLES DESTRIER
BEG TO DIFFER

SUMMARY

So, clearly there are two main contenders with OUT SAM just shading it ahead of KRUZHLININ but of course the latter is a Hobbs/Johnson qualifier so these two will do for Ken 🙂

OUR SAM 2pts
KRUZHLININ 1pt

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