The King Edward VII Stakes takes place on day 4 of Royal Ascot and is a group 2 event, run over 1M 4F. The race was previously known as the “Ascot Derby and although you’d expect horses that ran in the Epsom Derby to have a big chance in this, only 1 of the 15 runners that came from the Epsom Derby to run in this has been victorious in last 10 renewals.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Race for 3yos

 

Breeding

8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (2 exceptions by Dansili who was placed in multiple group 1’s)

7 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in first 3 in Irish, French or English Derby or 2000 Guineas

Both Dansili colts to run in this race have been successful (2009 & 2012).

Dansili progeny: 11 (2-0-2)

Galileo progeny: 3264142272 (1-5-10)

Pivotal progney: 31 (1-1-2)

Danehill Dancer progeny: 431 (1-1-3)

 

Penalty

2 of the 3 horses to carry a penalty (0-2-3) have made the places.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times as 2yos

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that year

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (1 exception was 10th in Epsom Derby)

9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out (exception did so on penultimate start)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 100+ last time (exception posted RPR of 95 last time on second career start)

8 of 10 winners had won 1 of last 2 starts

6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (2 exceptions were 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial over 1M 3 1/2F, one was 2nd in group 2 Prix Greffulhe and other 2nd on 2 runs over 1M 2F+)

5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 2 or 3 (1 exception had won a listed race & other 4 had yet to run in class 1 company)

Only 1 winner had run in a group 1, 10th Epsom Derby

7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a recognised trial for French or Epsom Derby's

7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a race over 1M 1F to 1M 2F at Newmarket that season

 

Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Chester Vase: 5140153 (2-1-7)

Highest placed finisher from Lingfield Derby Trial: 711684 (2-0-6)

Highest placed finisher from Derby: 3320442 (0-3-7)

Record of horses that ran in the Derby: 331732093643432 (1-6-15)

Chester Vase winner (Hans Holbein): 1 (1-0-1)

Codebase8 Ltd Handicap winner (Space Age): 1 (1-0-1)

A Sure Thing Mandarin Handicap winner (Dissolution): 17 (1-0-2)

Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Storm The Stars): 16 (1-0-2)

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Maiden winner (Intilaaq): 2 (0-1-1)

Totepool Betting Maiden winner (Storm The Stars): 55 (0-0-2)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Kilimanjaro): 64 (0-0-2)

5 of 10 winners ran in a 1M 2F Newmarket handicap in April, May or June, finishing 12112

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in London Gold Cup, finishing 252

3 of 10 winners had won their maiden at Leicester in October

2 of 10 winners ran in Chester Vase, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in Lingfield Derby Trial, finishing 33

 

Trainers

John Gosden (3-2-9) has saddled 3 winners & 2 seconds from 9 runners since 2005.

Michael Stoute (2-2-8) trained the winner in 2006 & 2013 and the runner-up in 2008 & 2011. Both his winners won their maiden at Leicester in October.

Aidan O’Brien (0-5-9) last trained the winner in 2004 & has seen 5 of his 9 runners make the frame, though he has been responsible for the beaten favourite in 4 of last 5 years.

Andrew Balding (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners get placed, at prices of 25/1 & 40/1.

 

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter

Eagle Top’s win at 12/1 has been the biggest upset in this since 2005.

Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Sired by a group 1 winner

Dansili, Pivotal & Galileo progeny have done well in this

Sire finished in first 3 in major European Derby or Guineas

Run no more than 4 times as a 2yo

Run 2 to 5 times in 2015

Ran in the past 60 days

Finished in first 3 last time (posting a career high RPR of 100+)

Won 1 of last 2 starts

Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (or finished in first 3 in Lingfield Derby Trial)

Finished in first 4 in a group 2 or 3 (or won a listed race)

Had not won at higher than group 3

Finished in first 2 in a 1M 2F race at Newmarket in 2015

Finished in first 3 in a recognised trial for Epsom or French Derby

Avoid horses that ran in Epsom Derby

Finished in first 3 in London Gold Cup, Chester Vase or Lingfield Derby Trial

Trained by John Gosden, Michael Stoute or Andrew Balding

Carl's Analysis

Trends from 16

11 – MAGIC DANCER

10 – BALIOS, MR SINGH, STRAVAGANTE

8 – FATHER CHRISTMAS

7 – OL’MAN RIVER

6 – FESTIVE FAIR

Turf Form: Magic Dancer, Stravagante

Speed: Stravagante, Balios, Mr Singh, Magic Dancer

Stravangante head the Sad Ken ratings showing steady improvement up to Class 2.

Mr Singh has shown the same speed from his maiden run to  his class 1, will need to show more improvement for this step up in trip.

Balios had a really good race lto with a really good profile.

Magic Dancer ran a really good race showing a massive profile, has been hit hard by the handicapper but looks shaped to deal with it with 4ibs in hand. Only has ran once this year, but the only hosr to have run in a recognised trial.

A good value trends topper MAGIC DANCER is the pick.

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