The King’s Stand Stakes is the third race of day 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over 5 furlongs, it was promoted to a group 1 class in 2008. In the past 10 years, overseas runners have done really well, with 6 of the last 10 winners being trained outside of Britain and Ireland.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-32

4yo: 1-6-46

5yo: 2-5-34

6yo: 4-4-33

7yo: 2-1-22

8yo+: 0-2-16

Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 2-8-75

Horses aged 5 or older have a record of 8-12-105

The two 3yo winners since 2000 had both won or placed in a group race as 2yos.

No horse aged over 7 has won this in past 40 years.

 

Gender

Fillies & mares (1-4-26) have won 1 of last 10 from approximately 14.4% of total runners.

 

Breeding

GB bred: 3-8-79

Australian bred: 3-3-13

French bred: 3-0-7

New Zealand bred: 1-0-5

Irish bred: 0-7-60

South African bred: 0-2-5

American bred: 0-0-11

Horses bred in Australia & New Zealand: 4-3-18

Horse bred in GB & Ireland: 3-15-139

3 of 7 French bred horses to run in this have been successful, though Equiano accounted for 2 of those wins.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year

10 of 10 winners had won a race that year

9 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time out (exceptions was 4th in Temple Stakes)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ last time (exception did so on penultimate start)

10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 116+ earlier that year

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception was a listed winner and other had twice been placed in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 sprint (2 others finished in first 6 in a group 1 sprint the previous season and other 2 had not run in a group 1 sprint prior to this)

8 of 10 winners had won over 6F

9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception runner-up in a 5F group 2)

2 of 2 British-trained winners had previously won at Ascot

 

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Sole Power): 74801 (1-0-5)

Newmarket Handicap winner (Brazen Beau): 1119 (3-0-4)

Palace House Stakes winner (Goldream): 4001011 (3-0-7)

Scarborough Stakes winner (Mecca's Angel): 0011 (2-0-4)

Prix De Saint-Georges winner (Mecca's Angel): 1 (1-0-1)

Shergar Cup Dash winner (Goldream): 15 (1-0-2)

Temple Stakes winner (Pearl Secret): 00368203 (0-3-8)

Coolmore Stud Stakes winner (Brazen Beau): 2 (0-1-1)

Previous season's City Walls Stakes winner (Take Cover): 3 (0-1-1)

Al Quoz Sprint winner (Sole Power): 92 (0-1-2)

Beverley Bullet Stakes winner (Pearl Secret): 82 (0-1-2)

Flying Five Stakes winner (Stepper Point): 20700 (0-1-5)

Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Sole Power): 905380 (0-1-6)

Previous season's King George Stakes winner (Take Cover): 006 (0-0-3)

Dubai Duty Free Handicap winner (Robot Boy): 996 (0-0-3)

Dubai World Trophy winner (Mecca's Angel): 7008 (0-0-4)

Rous Stakes winner (Justice Day): 07006 (0-0-5)

Prix du Gros Chene winner (Muthmir): 87008 (0-0-5)

3 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in Newmarket Handicap at Flemington last time, finishing 111

3 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in Lightning Stakes, finishing 111

2 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 35

2 of 3 Australian-trained winners ran in Salinger Stakes, finishing 43

4 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in previous Abbaye, finishing 0656

4 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Palace House Stakes, finishing 1911

3 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Temple Stakes, finishing 234

3 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Al Quoz Sprint, finishing 457

2 of 4 British or Irish-trained winners ran in Scarborough Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Nunthorpe, finishing 73

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Meydan Sprint, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Hong Kong Sprint, finishing 42

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Du Gros-Chene last time, finishing 22

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Saint-Georges, finishing 14

 

Trainers

Australian trained: 3-3-15

British trained runners: 2-13-135

Irish trained runners: 2-2-9

Hong Kong trained: 1-1-5

Spanish trained: 1-0-1

French trained runners: 1-0-5

South African trained: 0-1-4

American trained: 0-0-5

Other: 0-0-2

Record of horses trained in Britain & Ireland: 4-15-144

Record of horses trained outside Britain & Ireland: 6-5-36

Australian based trainers (3-3-15) have been responsible for 4 of last 12 winners.

Eddie Lynam (2-1-4) has trained Sole Power to win the last 2 renewals and finish 3rd in 2012 & 8th in 2011.

Robert Cowell (1-0-7) trained Prohibit to win this in 2011.

David Barron (0-1-3), William Muir (0-1-5), Richard Hannon (0-1-5) & Kevin Ryan (0-1-8) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.

 

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 2-4-45

Horses drawn 6 to 10: 3-5-45

Horses drawn 11 to 15: 4-4-40

Horses drawn 16 or higher: 0-5-34

Horses drawn between stalls 7 and 14 have won 7 of last 9 running, including last 5.

 

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter

There has only been one winner priced above 12/1 in past 10 renewals.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 5 to 7

– Bred in Australia, New Zealand or France

– Run 2 to 4 times in 2015 (winning at least once)

– Finished in first 2 last time (posting RPR of 116+)

– Previously won over 5F and 6F

– Won a group sprint (preferably a group 1)

– Finished in first 4 in Prix de Saint-Georges, Palace House, Al Quoz and/or Hong Kong Sprint

– Ran in Prix du Gros-Chene, Temple Stakes or Newmarket H’cap last time

– Trained outside of Great Britain, especially Australian, Irish or Hong Kong based

– If trained in GB & Ire, then course winner and ran in 2014 Abbaye

– Drawn in stalls 7 to 14

Carl's Analysis.

Trends from 11

7 – GOLDREAM, MUTHMIR, SHAMAL WIND, SPIRIT QUARTZ

6 – MECCA’S ANGEL, STEPPER POINT

5 – HOT STREAK, JACK DEXTER, PEARL SECRET, RANGALI

4 – G FORCE, ROBOT BOY, SOLE POWER, TAKE COVER

3 – JUSTICE DAY

2 – LANCELOT DU LAC, MEDICIAN MAN, STEPS, WIND FIRE

 

Form: MECCA’S ANGEL, MUTHMIR, SHAMAL WIND

Speed*: MECCA’S ANGEL, LANCELOT DU LAC, STEPS, PEARL SECRE, JACK DEXTER (*no speed figures for SHAMAL WIND, won G1 lto)

Ability: SOLE POWER, SHAMAL WIND, MUTHMIR, HOT STREAK,

Probability: MECCA’S ANGEL, PEARL SECRET, MUTHMIR, SHAMAL WIND, RANGALI

+ Profile: SHAMAL WIND, JACK DEXTER, PEARL SECRET, STEPS, ROBOT BOY, MECCA’S ANGEL

Additional info

1-2 lto and RPR 166+: MUTHMIR, MECCA’S ANGEL, SHAMAL WIND

Won 2015: GOLDREAM, MUTHMIR, PEARL SECRET, ROBOT BOY, SOLE POWER, MECCAS’S ANGEL, SHAMAL WIND,

Ran 2-4 2015: GOLDREAM, MUTHMIR, PEARL SECRET, ROBOT BOY, SOLE POWER, SHAMAL WIND

Group 1 winners: G FORCE, SOLE POWER, SHAMAL WIND

Summary:

SHAMAL WIND – has many advantages in the trends, limited info on speed figures but is disadvantaged by the draw coming out form stall 4.

MECCA’S ANGEL – the confirmed form, speed and probability horse, with a level profile and preferred draw should take this.

The other ‘+profile’ should be good enough e/w way plays at generous prices.

↓