The Long Walk Hurdle is one of the key races for an indication on whom are worthy of the World Hurdle next year. With £57K up for grabs in this 8 runner race. There are 10 known trends over the past 10 years, with the key indicators that the winner will be French bred, aged 5 to 7, has won a Grade 1 Hurdle and have an official rating of 151 plus.
Trends Scores are:
8 – Reve De Sivola & Saphir Du Rheu
6 – Thistlecrack
5 – Deputy Dan
4 – Dynaste & Taglietelle
Saphir Du Rheu in my cross analysis seems to be the likely winner here, posting a very impressive career best LTO and has the best profile of the field.
Thisltlecrack the favourite, does have the best form, has an 11lb rise to contend with, has the profile to manage it, but Saphir Du Rheu has 2lbs given back and it's hard to ignore the speed figures.
Dynaste has a very generous price and has gone down by 8lbs, if this was a chase then I would say that he is overpriced but his hurdle form can be questioned.
Reve de Silvola is the ability horse here, has been treated kindly by the handicapper, but recent form and profile lets him down.
One of interest that only scored 1 on the trends for breeding is Karezak, has a really good speed figure and profile, stepping up in class for me will be the one to watch. The same can be said for Aqalim with a reasonable profile and even better probability. However Saphir Du Rheu for me is the one to beat.
From 12 known trends
10 – Hurricane Hollow
9 – Jolly's Cracked It, Noble Inn, Winner Massagot
8 – Sternrubin, Three Kingdoms, Unaminate, Waxies Darlgle
7 – Rayvin Black.
Extremely competitive, every horse has posted a career best apart from the trends leader. However my cross analysis does back up the trends leader on probability and profile, however there are challengers.
Strenrubin has the better from and speed figure and Winner Massagot has the second best probability and profile.
Waxies Dargle and Rayvin Black on speed. Noble Inn on form, but no reflective speed figures on the data I have
I'll stay faithful on the trends for this race being second ranked on the ratings for Hurricane Hollow, Winner Massagot is top rated.