The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 15th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 14th to 16th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-17-96
Horses aged 8+: 1-12-83
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-8-67
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 5-21-112
Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 5 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more from less than 38% of total runners.
Top Weight: 04FPP65PPP (0-1-10)
Horses rated 150 or higher: 1-7-46
Horses rated 139 to 149: 8-12-88
Horses rated 138 or less: 1-10-45
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 139 to 149 from less than 50% of total runners.
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point wand was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle, one other placed in listed handicap chase)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
5 of 5 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
Previous season's winner (Johns Spirit): 0 (0-0-1)
Marie Curie Cancer Handicap Chase winner (Johns Spirit): 43F28531 (1-4-8)
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Present View): 1F3P5 (1-1-5)
Record of first 7 from Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P521 (3-4-15)
Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): 1P (1-0-2)
Molson Coors H'cap Chase winner (Lamool): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Uzixandre): 846 (0-1-3)
Greatwood Gold Cup winner (Shangani): 96 (0-0-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Buywise): PU7 (0-0-3)
Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Indian Castle): 6UF (0-0-3)
Fairlawne Chase Handicap winner (Double Ross): PPPP (0-0-4)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Ballynagour): 77PP600 (0-0-7)
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Chase, finishing 211
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase, finishing 167
2 of 2 third season chaser winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing F2
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in John Smith's H'cap Chase, finishing 63
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
The Pipe stable (3-1-15) have accounted for 4 of the last 12 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-11) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-14) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-10) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006 & John’s Spirt to win it last year.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-20) saddled the winner & 3 places finishers in the last 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (0-6-19), Phillip Hobbs (0-4-10) and Alan King (0-4-10) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2004.
Irish based trainers (1-2-19) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (2-3-10) have gained 2 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2004 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 2.00.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– Aged 5 to 7
– Officially rated 139 to 149
– Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase
– Had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
– Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
– Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
– Second or third season chaser (preferably 2nd season chaser)
– Previously run less than 10 times over fences
– Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
– First 3 in 2013 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup
– Ran in a chase at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival
– Finished in first 7 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase
– Trained in Great Britain
– Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Jonjo O’Neill
– Favourite does well
The second jumps trends race of the season. I hope to do better than I did last year, through a field of high class contenders having previous form at this track, over course and distance.
Trends summary scores from 14
11 – INDIAN CASTLE*, OSCAR WHISKEY*, PRESENT VIEW*
10 – JOHN’S SPIRIT*, BUYWISE
9 – PERSIAN SNOW*
*Meeting the trends detail “9 out of the last 10 winners had their last run at Aintree, Carlisle and Cheltenham.
Sad Ken: Out of 6 using strictest rules for class of race
4 – OSCAR WHISKEY, JOHN’S SPIRIT
2 – INDIAN CASTLE, PERSIAN SNOW, BUYWISE
OSCAR WHISKEY – Form and probability with a level handicap; decent RPR; negative – age
JOHN’S SIPRIT – ability and speed; with a 9 pound rise and superior RPR profile to overcome rise; negative – had a run this season and ran in more than 7 handicaps.
Both have winning form on soft ground, Oscar Whiskey has got form on heavy, if the conditions change.
Verdict: So early in the season, it’s difficult to split the two; therefore I will apply caution and split stakes on the finalists.
One to watch: KAPA DE CERISY – scored 2 in Sad Ken, but the outright form and speed horse, with the best positive profile of the field. A solid each way bet with bookmakers offering 5 places.