The solitary Group 1 race on Day 2 of the Royal Ascot Festival is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, run over a mile and a quarter for 4yos and upwards. Some of the best middle distance horses of recent times have won this have won this, including Fantastic Light, Azamour, Rakti, Ouija Board and So You Think.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 although they have accounted for 78 of the 90 runners.
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ had run in previous year’s race, finishing 42732.
Muhtarram in 1996 & So You Think in 2012 have been the only 2 horses aged over 5 to win this race in past 30 years, Muhtarram had won it the previous year & So You Think had been close 2nd in 2011.
Fillies & mares (2-2-7) have gained 2 win and 2 places from just 7 runners in this race in the past 10 years.
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 118+ last time
10 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 over 1M1F to 1M 4F last time
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception had won group 2 and was 2nd in group 1 on last start)
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that year (9 of 10 finished in first 4 on all starts)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
4 of 10 winners made their seasonal debut at the Dubai Carnival
4 of 10 winners had run in a Longchamp group 1 that year
Other Races (previous season)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 1211 (3-1-4)
Prix du Jockey Club winner (The Grey Gatsby): 14 (1-0-2)
Prix Niel winner (Ectot): 104 (1-0-3)
Previous year's Dante Stakes winner (The Grey Gatsby): 22 (0-2-2)
Previous year's Prix Eugene Adam winner (Western Hymn): 47 (0-0-2)
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ ran in previous season's Prince Of Wales, finishing 7323
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 1211
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 24
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's English 2000 Guineas, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in Eclipse Stakes, finishing 17
2 of 2 female winners ran in Hong Kong Vase, finishing 12
Other Races (that season)
Gordon Richards Stakes winner (Western Hymn): 45281 (1-1-5)
Brigadier Gerrard Stakes winner (Western Hymn): 522 (0-2-3)
Festival Stakes winner (The Corsican): 0 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 4111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ispahan last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Ganay, finishing 11
British trained runners: 4-10-59
Irish trained runners: 217201620162 (3-4-14) – 4 of 7 unplaced were O'Brien pacemakers
French trained runners: 4631731814463 (3-2-13)
Irish and French trained runners have a combined record of 6-6-27, which compares well to British based runners’ record of 4-10-59.
Aidan O’Brien (2-4-12) has trained 2 winners & 4 placed finishers from 12 runners since 2005, and his record with his first string is 2-4-8.
John Gosden (1-3-8) has gained 1 win and 3 places from 8 runners in past 10 runnings.
Michael Stoute (0-2-7) has filled a couple of places since 2005.
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in the betting
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with only 4 horses priced above 8/1 making the places in the past 10 years.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 2.55 over past 10 years.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
– Aged 4 (or a 5yo that ran in this race last year)
– Respect fillies/mares (especially those that finished in first 2 in 2014 HK Vase)
– Run 1 to 3 times in 2015 (never worse than 4th)
– Finished in first 3 in group 1 over 1M 1F+ last time
– Posted an RPR of 121+ last time in a group 1 over 1M 1F+
– Has won over 1M 2F or further
– Has won a group 1
– Finished in first 3 in the Prince of Wales, Irish and/or English Champion Stakes in 2014
– Ran in a group 1 at Longchamp or Meydan in 2015
– First 3 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup or Prix D’Ispahan last time
– From the first 4 in the betting
– Trained in France or Ireland
Trends from 12:
7 – FREE EAGLE, GAILO CHOP
6 – THE GRAY GATSBY
5 – CRITERION, ECTOT
4 – WESTERN HYMN
3 – CANNOCK CHASE, THE CORSICAN
2 – SPIELBERG
Speed: FREE EAGLE, CONNOCK CHASE, THE CORSICAN
Form: THE CORSICAN, CANNOCK CHASE, FREE EAGLE
Ability: CRITERION, SPIELBERG, THE GREY GASTBY
Probability: ECTOT, WESTERN HYMN, CANNOCK CHASE, GALIO CHOP, THE COSRICAN, FREE EAGLE
+ Profile: CANNOCK CHASE, THE CORSICAN
It would be easy for me to say Free Eagle is the pick, he may well be, but I must apply caution due to the information that is not available for the Group 1 contenders in this race like Criterion and Spielberg with impressive ability figures.
Deep Impact is the sire of Spielberg and probably one of the most impressive sires of our generation and I am sure he better than the trends suggest.
Cannock Chase and The Corsican are both worthy from what I can see.