Who is FRED? Actually, a better question is, what is FRED? It's the FormBet Race Database, a tool for querying historic horse racing data to find profitable angles.
Over the last twelve months FRED, along with the whole FormBet online dashboard, has been under heavy development, with improved data input and inclusion of a whole raft of new ideas from loyal subscribers.
How does FRED work? It's very simple and straight forward, and with the most recent changes even more powerful. Subscribers select a number of filters, using sliders, multi-selection boxes and text input fields, then the results for a filtered data set matching those parameters is returned. The output includes a line chart with trend lines, Strike Rate, Yield, Level Points Return, A/E and a Confidence rating. Most of those items are self explanatory, but perhaps a couple need further detail.
Actual over Expected (A/E) is a ratio describing whether returns beat market expectations. Without going into all the mathematical details, which may be better saved for an alternative article, if the A/E ratio is greater than 1.00, the results are beating market expectations and may therefore be viewed as Value.
FormBet's unique Confidence rating is based on a form of statistical analysis known as a Chi Squared test. Our Confidence rating is a measure of how much the returned results may be purely down to luck, or whether there is some statistical basis to them. The closer the Confidence rating is to 100, the less likely the returns are down to luck.
Below is a sample of FRED returns, showing some of the filter sliders at the top of the page, and the returned results at the bottom. In view, the FBR ranking filter has been set to one (the highest rank), but returned results also include a selection of additional filters from the Conditions and Prices tabs.
In this example, the returned results already look quite healthy. However, it is possible to drill down further into this data set, to search for specific angles. Always keep in mind that a decent sample size is required, but the Confidence rating should help with filtering out returns which aren't statistically sound.
The screen shot below now shows a further drill down into returns for the FormBet PACE rating. Using the drop down list allows subscribers to choose from a wide range of available filters, to see more information about each of them. These filters include items such as Courses, Trainers, Jockets, Sires and Race Types.
If a subscriber was researching using this data set, they may like to filter further using FormBet's PACE rating, from ranks one through to four only, to enhance the returns on the base return shown above.
Also seen above are further informational columns including the overall Mean price for all runners in the data set, Mean for winners only, Mean for Losers only and a figure for the longest Expected Longest Losing sequence. Understanding mathematically how many consecutive losers a systematic betting approach can expect at some point, will undoubtedly help with bankroll management. Realising that you could experience many losers in a row, also helps psychologically when asking crucial questions about whether a systematic approach is still valid.
We still have a long list of additional enhancements planned for FRED, and the other aspects of FormBet's online service. These will be built and deployed over the coming months, adding even further value to the already very attractive membership packages. Today's subscribers are already taking their betting knowledge to the next level, using FRED to investigate profitable historical angles.