The 2015 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 16th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick off what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The Lockinge Stakes has proven the key trial for this, with 6 of last 10 winners coming straight from that race to land the Queen Anne.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 7-9-48

5yo: 3-5-28

6yo+: 0-4-20

10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5

4yos have held a slight edge over 5 year olds in past 10 runnings. You have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.

 

Gender

In 2010 Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971

Eight fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 47321274 (1-3-8).

6 of 8 female runners were sent off at less than 8/1 (4 were favourite)

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)

10 of 10 winners had had 7 to 17 career starts

9 of 10 winners had won a group 1

8 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (1 exception had run 3 times and other making seasonal debut)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 111+ on last run over 1M to 1M 1F

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

3 of 10 winners had won at Ascot (other 7 having first run at Ascot)

 

Other Races

Record of first 3 from previous St James' Palace Stakes: 112131 (4-2-6)

Lockinge winner (Night Of Thunder): 247211 (2-2-6)

Prix d'Ispahan winner (Solow): 1612 (2-1-4)

Prix Rothschild winner (Esoterique): 2124 (1-2-4)

Hungerford Stakes winner (Breton Rock): 12 (1-1-2)

Previous year's Craven Stakes winner (Toormore): 01 (1-0-2)

Falmouth Stakes winner (Integral): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous season's 2000 Guineas winner (Night Of Thunder): 41 (1-0-2)

Diomed Stakes winner (Arod): 33 (0-2-2)

Sovereign Stakes winner (Captain Cat): 3 (0-1-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time out, finishing 264115

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in previous year's Greenham Stakes, finishing 121

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in previous year's 2000 Guineas, finishing 314

4 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's St James Palace Stakes, finishing 2112

4 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Sussex Stakes, finishing 3111

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Breeders Cup Mile, finishing 01

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Prix de la Foret, finishing 13

 

Trainers

British trained runners: 5-11-66

Irish trained runners: 3-3-14 (all 3 winners trained by A O’Brien)

French trained runners: 2-4-11

Any other: 0-0-5

Aidan O’Brien (3-2-12) has trained 3 of last 10 winners.

The Richard Hannon stable (3-1-6) were responsible for the winner in 2009, 2011 & 2014.

Freddie Head (1-1-4) & Andre Fabre (1-0-1) have both trained the winner in past 10 years.

Andrew Balding (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners make the places at odds of 50/1 & 33/1.

William Haggas (0-1-1) & Michael Stoute (0-1-5) have both saddled a placed finisher since 2005.

 

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 3-8-27

Horses drawn in middle: 2-7-32

Horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 4-1-27

Since 2000, 12 of 14 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners went off 15/2 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting

Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 10 winners going off at single figure odds, however the favourite has won just three in last 10 years.

Favourites (3-3-10) have gained just 3 wins and 3 places since 2005, giving a level stakes profit of 4.72. 3 of last 5 odds on favourites have been defeated.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 4 or 5

Won over 1M to 1M 1F

Won a group 1

Had 1 or 2 previous runs in 2015

Posted an RPR of 115+ on last run over 1M to 1M 1F

Ran in the Lockinge last time out (or won Prix D’Isphahan)

First 3 in Prix de la Foret, 2000 Guineas and/or Sussex Stakes in 2014

First 2 in Greenham and/or St James’ Palace in 2014

Trained by Richard Hannon, Aidan O’Brien or in France

Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls

Priced shorter than 8/1

Carl's Analysis

Trends from 11:

9 – NIGHT OF THUNDER, TOORMORE

7 – SOLOW

6 – ABLE FRIEND, ESOTERIQUE

5 – COUGAR MOUNTAIN, HERE COMES WHEN

4 – GLORY AWAITS

From looking at the Sad Ken analysis it would seem that the betting markets have got it right with some impressive figures for both Able Friend and Solow. It’s a long time since I’ve seen horse’s with ability figures of around 3000 and probability percentages over 60 for well raced horses, but from my calculations they have negative profiles.

Keep it simple, the trends toppers have both positive profiles and are evenly matched.

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