The Royal Hunt Cup is the highlight of day 2 of Royal Ascot. It’s a handicap run over a mile for 3yos and upwards and the field often consists of over 30 runners so it’s no mean feat finding the winner, though there are some strong trends to guide you in your search.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 5-13-113

5yo: 3-10-74

6yo: 1-3-42

7yo+: 1-4-46

Horses aged 4 or 5: 8-23-187

Horses 6 or older: 2-7-88

Both winners aged 6+ had won a class 2 handicap worth over £60,000 the previous season.

 

Weight

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-5-27

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 6-9-87

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-12-117

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-4-44

8 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-1 (2 exceptions carried 9-3 & 9-5).

Penalty: 40402500820084 (0-5-14)

Top Weight: 00030978050 (0-1-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 100 or more: 5-12-95

Horses rated 90 to 99: 5-16-162

Horses rated 89 or less: 0-2-18

Last 10 winners were officially rated between 93 and 102

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 in one of last two starts

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on at least one start that season

7 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days

10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 99+ in 1 of last 3 starts

8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better (2 exceptions placed in a class 2)

9 of 10 winners had won over a mile (exception previously placed in this race)

6 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps

9 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps (exception had won a class 2 handicap worth 99K)

 

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Field Of Dream): 0307 (0-1-4)

Previous season's Cambridgeshire winner (Bronze Angel): 001 (1-0-3)

Suffolk Stakes winner (Balty Boys): 49 (0-1-2)

Victoria Cup winner (Speculative Bid): 09 (0-0-2)

Lincoln winner (Gabrial): 000 (0-0-3)

Spring Cup winner (Ayaar): 7000 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 620

3 of 10 winners ran in previous Betfred Mile, finishing 389

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in Whitsun Cup last time, finishing 43

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 47

2 of 10 winners ran in International Stakes, finishing 65

2 of 10 winners ran in the Lincoln, finishing 20

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous Bunbury cup, finishing 01

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous Cambridgeshire, finishing 10

2 of 5 winners aged 4 ran in Deloitte 3yo Handicap at Ascot in July, finishing 54

 

Trainers

Jamie Osbourne (1-2-5) trained Field Of Dream to win this in 2014 and has seen 2 of his other 4 runners get placed.

John Gosden (1-1-6), Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-7) and the Richard Hannon yard (1-1-8) have each been responsible for 1 winner and 1 placed finisher since 2005.

George Baker (1-0-3) trained Belgian Bill to win this in 2013.

Dandy Nicholls (0-3-9) has saddled 3 placed finishers from 9 runners in past 10 runnings, while Hughie Morrison (0-2-4) has gained 2 places from 4 runners.

None of the 12 Irish-based runners (0-0-12) have made the frame in this.

 

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 10: 1-8-90

Horses drawn 11 to 19: 2-7-80

Horses drawn 20 or higher: 6-12-83

Higher draws have had much the better of it recently, with 8 of last 11 winners at Ascot coming from stall 20 or higher.

 

Price

No strong trends on the prices. Prior to 2009 there had been no winning favourite since 1996.

Favourites (1-2-13) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 11 runners (£1 level stakes loss of £5.00 over the past 10 years).

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 4 or 5 (or aged 6 or 7 and won a handicap worth 60K+ in 2014)

– Carrying 8-8 to 9-1 (no higher than 9-5)

– Officially rated between 93 and 102

– Won over a mile

– Ran in last 45 days

– Finished in the first 2 at least once this season

– Posted an RPR of 99+ in last 3 starts

– Has won at class 3 or higher

– Won or placed in class 2 handicap or better

– Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning 3 or less) or won a handicap worth 40K+

– Finished in first 6 in Spring Cup, Whitsun Cup and/or 2014 International Stakes

– Finished in first 5 in Deloitte H’cap, Betfred Mile and/or Buckingham Palace in 2014

– Ran in 2014 Bunbury Cup and/or Cambridgeshire

– Trained in Britain (especially by Jamie Osbourne, John Gosden or Hughie Morrison)

– Drawn 20 or higher

Carl's Analysis

Trends from 15:11 – DON’T BE, YOUR FIRED, MANAASER

10 – TEMPTRESS

9 – BANCNUANAHIEREANN

8 – AVON PEARL, BIG BAZ, EXTREMITY, FORT BASTION, LIGHTENING SPEAR, SPECULATIVE BID

7 – AMERICAN HOPE, AYAAR, BALTY BOYS, BARAWEEZ, BRONZE ANGEL, DARK EMERALD, FIELD OF DREAM, GABRIAL, JACKS REVENGE, LANCEUR, LINCOLN, MONDIALISTE, PIRI WANGO, SPARK PLUG.

6 – LAMAR, TENOR

Form: DARK EMERALD, LIGHTENING SPEAR, TEMPTRESS

Speed: YOU’RE FIRED, DARK EMERALD, SPECUALTIVE BID, LINCOLN, AYAAR

Ability: FIELD OF DREAMS, SPECULATIVE BID, GABRIAL, DARK EMERALD

Probability: DARK EMERALD, LIGHTENING SPEAR, LANCEUR, TEMPTRESS, GM HOPKINS, YOUR FIRED, AYAAR,

+ Profile: YOU’RE FIRED, (only horse faster than class)

 

Summary

Keeping it simple, YOU’RE FIRED is my idea of the likely winner, only 3lbs up from a second in a Class one LTO. The form has been let down by a run on heavy ground, otherwise has demonstrated to be a very progressive type. Stepped from a Class 3 win, to coming second in a Class 1, running faster than class and has an ideal draw.

Dark Emerald is what I considered the main danger, although he is to high up on the weight, official rating and has ran in to many handicaps for the trends, he is the confirmed form and speed horse of the field and it unwise to ignore his second in a Group 2 in Meydan and races prior to that on his Meydan tour, if the form holds up.

Other profile horse to consider looking at  e/w if there are enhanced terms from the shops, are LINCOLN, SPECULATIVE BID, GABRIAL, AYAAR and LANCEUR

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