First day of the flat season, which is my preferred code to make profits in. I always loved to try to get my head around the Spring Mile and Lincoln Handicaps on Day 1 and today is no different. Using GeeGeez Gold I have been able to analyse the draw and pace charts in an instant and it's really interesting to note that on ground that is good to soft or softer that those that are held-up from a high draw have 3 wins and twice as many places as any other combination in these big-field mile races.
2:25 Spring Mile 1pt e/w 25/1 EXECUTIVE FORCE is ridden by Jamie Spencer so chances are he will be held up and delivered late from his high draw, also worth noting he has the highest speed figure on the GeeGeez cards. Over the last 5 years Spencer has a 20% Win S/R and 44% place S/R, showing a +34pts profit. At 25/1 I'm prepared to take an each way punt. Original Choice looks the danger and could be worth a small win cover.
3:35 Lincoln 1pt e/w 16/1 DONNCHA was beaten a neck of this mark in the Spring Mile 2 years ago on soft going and last year was 3rd in this race, beaten two necks off a 3lb higher mark on good to soft going. He has also lucked out in that he is a hold-up runner drawn high and with Andrea Atzeni doing the steering, he has a solid each-way shout. He has an even better record than Spencer at the course over the last 5 years. Fire Brigade looks the main danger under Ryan Moore and again may be worth a cover bet.
You can also view a free Trainer/Jockey Combo report every Saturday via GeeGeez