The St James’s Palace Stakes is one of three group 1 races taking place on day 1 of Royal Ascot, which kicks off on Tuesday 16th June. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe. Recent winners include Canford Cliffs, Dawn Approach, Kingman and the mighty Frankel.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Race for 3yos

 

Breeding

9 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (8 of those 9 had won a group 1 over 1M or shorter)

 

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 others beaten in French 2000 Guineas/Derby or Epsom Derby)

10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 116+ in one or both of last 2 runs

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ on last run over 7F or 1M

8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had finished in the first 3 in a group 1)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception placed in a group 1)

9 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days

9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception short head 2nd)

8 of 10 winners won a group race as a 2yo (1 exception didn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo and other was placed in Dewhurst)

4 of 10 winners had won a group race at Ascot as a 2yo (other 6 were having first course start)

 

Guineas Form

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 15111091 (5-0-8)

English 2000 Guineas winner (Gleneagles): 517112 (3-1-6)

Highest placed finisher from English 2000 Guineas: 5151271212 (4-3-10)

French 2000 Guineas winner (Make Believe): 1359 (1-1-4)

7 of 10 winners ran in the English 2000 Guineas, finishing 4153112

5 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 11111

2 of 10 winners ran in the French 2000 Guineas, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in French Derby last time, finishing 10

8 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (1 exception was 4th in French 2000 & other exception bypassed Guineas for French Derby)

 

Other Races

Dewhurst Stakes winner (Belardo): 156114 (3-0-6)

National Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 116 (2-0-3)

Solario Stakes winner (Aktabantay): 21 (1-1-2)

Vintage Stakes winner (Highland Reel): 176 (1-0-3)

Richmond Stakes winner (Ivawood): 2 (0-1-1)

Tyros Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 2 (0-1-1)

July Stakes winner (Ivawood): 3 (0-1-1)

Champagne Stakes winner (Estidhkaar): 23 (0-1-2)

Prix de Fontainebleau winner (Territories): 520 (0-1-3)

Futurity Stakes winner (Gleneagles): 0304 (0-1-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1131

3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 111

3 of 10 winners ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 211

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 33

2 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11

 

Trainers

British trained runners: 6-9-52

Irish trained runners: 4-7-32

French trained runners: 0-2-8

German trained: 0-1-1

Other: 0-0-2

Aidan O’Brien (3-8-24) has won 4 of the last 13 runnings of this race. His first string has a record since 2005 of 3-3-10.

The Richard Hannon yard (1-3-8) saddled the 1-2 in 2010 and the runner-up in 2013 & 2014.

Andre Fabre hasn’t saddled a runner since filling runner-up spot in 2004.

 

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 3: 3-2-27

Horses drawn 4 to 6: 4-4-27

Horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-12-36

No very strong trends on the draw, though 7 of last 9 winners at Ascot came from 5 or lower.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below

This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in each of last 10 years and no winner going off bigger than 9/1.

Favourites (7-0-11) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 4.58.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 1M

Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo (or placed in a group 1)

First 3 in Morny, National, Phoenix, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway Stakes as 2yo

Ran in the past 30 days

Won last time out (or beaten in a Classic)

Posted an RPR of 116+ on last run over 7F or 1M

Group 1 winner (finished in first 3 in a group 1)

Finished in the first 2 in Irish, French and/or English 2000 Guineas

Finished in first 2 in Greenham Stakes

Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas or a French Classic last time out

Priced 9/1 or below (favourite has a very strong record)

Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon

Carl's Analysis

Trends from 11
9 – GLENEAGLES
7 – BELARDO, MAKE BELIEVE
3 – CONSORT
1 – AKTABANTAY, LATHARNAC
There are only three horses with group one winning form which make up the first three in the trends.
The focus of this race, are guineas winners which Gleneagles has won both the English and Irish 2000, with Make Believe winning the French, both with similar profiles.
Gelneagles has been left alone by the handicapper since winning the Irish Guineas after being put up by 6lb after winning the English.
Make believe had a career best lto and seems to like a lot of juice in the ground as he hasn’t run on better than good to soft.
From a value perspective Belardo, has been given a pound back from the handicapper, after coming 1 ¾ lengths behind Gleneagles. If he runs a different race to run more prominently could be there or there abouts.
The only horse with a positive profile is Aktabantay, who has 2lbs in hand and wasn’t disgraced in lto in group one where he was bustled to the back but finished off well.
For the trends GLENEAGLES is the pick.

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