It takes a lot of patience to back horses who are available at much bigger odds than you estimate their chances to be, but over time the ROI can be rewarding as you can see from the detailed breakdown of Premium Tips results here from the last 2 years or so. An 18% ROI is better than any bank or building society can offer you and it has to be viewed with the same long-term investment approach rather than the daily quest for ‘winners at any price' if you want to grow your bankroll.
Today I see one such example where a horse was available at far bigger odds (30 on Betfair earlier) than I estimate it's chances to be on my ratings. Now chances are that my ratings have over-estimate the chances of JOSHUA THE FIRST winning the 2.40 at Musselburgh but I've found that constantly backing such standouts providing there is other strength then it can pay dividends. There has been a bit of support for the Keith Dalgliesh runner today but the 20/1 with Bet365 is what I would consider to still be a decent price.
The last race today in the 7.20 at Lingfield features one of those rare things on my ratings, a double-stats qualifier in SWEET MARTONI. It's not quite top-rated on my ratings but it's not too far off and it has two significant pieces of statistically significant data behind it. First of all we have the William Knight Lingfield stat – he has a 19% strike-rate with a 55% ROI which is significant at the 3.7% level. We then have a quirkier stat which is the sire Dubawi who has a 22% strike-rate over this distance with a 1.37 AE with 3.9% Chi significance.
Musselburgh 2.40 JOSHUA THE FIRST 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365 BOG)
Lingfield 7.20 SWEET MARTONI 2pt win @ 5/1 (Stan James BOG)