I think the All-Weather Championships are one of the best ideas racing has had for a while. As it states on their website “The Championships aims to improve the quality and reputation of All-Weather racing and encourage Owners and Trainers to keep their horses in training during the winter months to compete in one of the 7 categories, designed to test every horse, jockey and trainer in the UK.”
They receive sponsorship from Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet & 32Red which ultimately results in over £1m prizemoney across the 7-race card at Lingfield in March. The result is that it attracts a good quality horse not just on finals day but through the season, 2014 Stayers winner Litigant went on to win this year's Ebor and November handicaps.
I thought I would post up the fast-track qualifying races in the run up to March from the FormBet Ratings and it would also help me and others to get to know the horses a bit better by the time March comes around and serve as an archive of sorts. It will also show the strength of the FormBet database and ratings.
Today it's a 2yo race, usually races that I swerve if I am honest because it's very tough to know just how these youngsters will perform on the artificial surfaces so early into their career. The ratings take a lot of factors into account and one of them is sire-based statistics so let's take a look at today's race, the 12:50 at Lingfield.
Now, if you bet for value you HAVE to maintain a long-term outlook as you will usually be backing more losers than winners. There is a big difference between looking for the winner of a race than looking for the best value bet in a race. Sometimes they can be one and the same but, more often than not, simply looking for the winner of a race is not the most long-term, profitable strategy to employ.
Now, here is a little stat for you – over 47% of all Betfair BSP Favourites in 2yo non-handicaps at Lingfield win their races but unfortunately they show a very slight loss. You can research any of these kind of stats using our Formbet RacE Database (FRED) at a fraction of the cost of most other form databases out there.
So whichever of Abe Lincoln or Special Season wind up as favourite will have an advantage over the other runners in the race, in terms of winning, even if long-term they don't produce a profit.
However, let's look at the record of the FBR1 runners. Our FBR (FormBet Rating) is a value-based rating which means that generally speaking you can actually make a profit from the top-rated, sometimes when combining an additional V% filter but sometimes just combining other types of ratings.
So we can see that despite the FBR1 rating having a -20% lower strike-rate than backing the favourite in 2yo non-handicaps at Lingfield, it actually produces a +43pts profit with 53% Yield. FBR2 is a slight -10pts loss but FBR3 ranked runners produce a +42pts profit with 54% Yield. So simply backing the Top-3 of the FBR in 2yo non-handicaps at Lingfield is blindly profitable strategy to the tune of +75pts and a 32% Yield…not bad eh ? You just have to accept a lower strike-rate which comes down to being mentally strong, patient and disciplined.
Now, our PACE ratings are the best out there I believe, especially so for the all-weather because they don't focus on ‘early' pace like most other predictable outfits out there, but on sustained pace through the race which I believe is unique to our ratings. So, we already know that focusing on the Top-3 of our ratings is profitable, if we just focus on the Top-2 of our PACE figures in these 2yo Lingfield non-handicaps things get a bit more interesting.
So an amazing 45% strike-rate for those who are in both the Top-3 of the FBR and the PACE1 ranked runner with a 73% Yield and +39pts profit. Even the PACE2 ranked runner is profitable although the strike-rate dips a fair bit.
It's worth noting that the Godolphin runner RACE DAY that we have bottom-rated is PACE1 ranked. Just on their own pace ranked runners in these races have a 35% Strike-Rate with a +24pts profit and 34% Yield so despite being at the bottom of our ratings we could also look to back these blindly. At the end of the day you have to make a choice with your method and stick with it.
Now, there is no qualifier today on our figures but there is another PACE type figure that we have at our disposal called PACEIMP and it ranks the runners based on their PACE improvement figure from their last run to today's figure so it is anticipating the improvement that can be expected today. Sometimes the two figures of PACE and PACEIMP align but sometimes they don't.
However, looking at the PACEIMP ranked 1 runner combined with FBR1-3 gives a very useful profit.
So there you have it for 2yo non-handicaps at Lingfield there are a number of things to take from the data -:
- Favourites have an outstanding record but are unprofitable when backed blindly
- FBR1-3 Ranked runners are blindly profitable
- Adding PACE1/PACE2 ranked runners to the FBR1-3 produces a blind profit
- Adding PACEIMP1 ranked runners to the FBR1-3 produces a blind profit
Now obviously we could follow option 2 and just back Abe Lincoln, Turbine and Lady Macapa and come out in front over time if we were to follow that approach. But I would rather use option 3 or 4 and today there is only one qualifier in ABE LINCOLN who is not only FBR1 but also PACEIMP1 so it's anticipated that he will have too much sustained PACE for his rivals today.
Of course you could just back the Top-Rated FBR1 runners in these races blindly but it's always nice to get additional confirmation from another strong figure.
So at the moment ABE LINCOLN can be backed at 3.4 on Betfair, 3.5 on Smarkets and 3.45 on Betdaq all of which are value prices compared to our oddsline's estimate of 3.17 and I would expect him to start closer to that price than his current one.
It's likelier that if Special Season happens to start favourite he will stand a better chance of success, but as we have seen you will achieve better profits by backing our Top-Ranked runners in these races.
Why not join smart punters who use FormBet and our database to research profitable angles like this every day.