Trends Analysis can work particularly well in staying handicap chases. I used the excellent free trends provided by GeeGeez on their blog to perform an elimination method. You can also download ratings for 14 races today for just £2 via the homepage, 8 races of which have filtered, recommended win selections.
Just looking at the Top-10 trends narrows it down to just 2 horses with THE TWO AMIGOS 20/1 and CAPTAIN CHAOS 20/1. Marginal preference is for the latter who also hits the 11th trend of being Irish bred (10/17) and so would be the preferred selection but then I also have The Two Amigos further up my own ratings for the race. I actually have Elegant Escape Top-rated by some way and a shade of value at 7/2 with 2nd-rated Yala Enki also a more speculative each-way value bet at 9/1. I'd probably back last year's winner ELEGANT ESCAPE to defend his crown, given how far clear he is on my ratings but I'll throw in the two trends selections for each-way money.
ELEGANT ESCAPE – win @ BetfairSP THE TWO AMIGOS – e/w @ 20/1 CAPTAIN CHAOS – e/w @ 20/1
Here are the trends the selections hit -:
2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV
17/17 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before 17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks 17/17 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences) 15/17 – Aged 9 or younger 15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out 13/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight 13/17 – Aged 8 or younger 11/17 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight 11/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences 11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting 10/17 – Irish bred (Captain Chaos only)
At the start of the year I built a number of systems for the flat season, largely based around breeding and using the excellent GeeGeez Gold Query Tool. I did the same thing for a number of all-weather and jumps systems, adding in a few specialist angles for sires and trainers who have shown a good record on soft and heavy going. Just like the stockmarket, you need to ensure your systems are balanced across a range of conditions, race codes, going etc so that if one or two outperform, the others should make up for that during a season – it's about diversification, discipline and money and systems management. Always review your systems at the end of each season to see if any sires are on the wane, or trainers are not performing as well etc etc.
Now, I won't post the exact filters I use, but the above should be enough to get you thinking and researching your own unique angles, that perhaps the crowd and other researchers are not tracking. Note also that all returns are at SP and from my experience, the BetfairSP provides an average improvement of anything between 10% and 40%, with the biggest discrepancies coming at the higher odds ranges, a lot of which are produced from these systems, so they actually perform much better at BetfairSP than the quoted profits below.
I thought I would post an update on how these all-weather and jumps systems have been performing so far in 2019. Overall, I have 18 systems I have been tracking and only two are sitting in negative territory as you can see from the list below. I put this down to the power of the GeeGeez Query Tool at being able to fine tune filters, while maintaining a decent cushion of ROI and backed up by strong A/E and IV figures. Not even counting the profits from the ratings, so far I am showing +855pts profit this season just across all-weather and jumps. The flat systems will be ready for next season so I don't want to be accused of back-fitting by posting the figures from halfway through the season this year, but I saw similar profitability, especially with sire-based systems.
The first thing to do is ensure you perform your analysis either on race type, ie. Not just All-Weather, but separate the Tapeta/Polytrack and Fibresand. For the jumps don't just split analysis by hurdles or chases, but also on soft/heavy going and at different race distances. ie. 2m hurdles or 3m chasers for example.
Next thing is to focus on sires, those sires whose progeny excel and are profitable under the race conditions, preferably with a positive Actual/Expect ratio (A/E) and Impact Value (IV).
Then look at combining sires and trainers and building sub-systems to improve strike-rate and/or to improve Return On Investment (ROI).
System 1 – AW 2yo and 3yo Sire Watch. Clue – Look to filter these for Class 1-3 races across all the all-weather tracks. This is a combination of trainers and sires that have only produced 6 qualifiers this year but 2 of them have won at odds of 5/1 and 7/1 and are showing a +8pts profit and 133% ROI on the year. Since 2009 overall this system is selective with a 44% strike-rate, +63pts profit and an 89% ROI.
System 2 – Class Speed Hurdles. Clue – Keep distance of race less than 2m 2f. This is another combination system over hurdles that combined class, race distance and profitable sire and trainer combination. This year it's showing a +35pts profit with a 70% ROI. Since 2014 it's showing a 31% strike-rate with a +177pts profit and 54% ROI.
System 3 – Fibresand Class Sire and Trainer. Clue – You should have no more than a total of 7 combined trainers and sires in this selective system. This year it's showing a +18pts profit from 16 runners for a 118% ROI. Since 2015 it has a 27% strike-rate, +49pts profit and 90% ROI.
System 4 – Polytrack Sires. Clue – The clue is in the name! This is really simple system looking at the very best sires on the Polytrack. I recently wrote a blog post to give some guidance on this here. With sire-systems you have to take a hit with strike-rate for a potentially greater ROI. This is what most systematic punters (and punters in general) are very poor at managing losing runs, they are not mentally strong enough to cope with the dips. This year it's showing a +77pts profit with 20% ROI and overall it has a 17% strike-rate, +560pts profit and a 40% ROI.
System 5 – Polytrack Trainer and Sire Combo 1. Clue – First look at sires, then trainers and try the reverse to build a complete list of sires and trainers. Plug them all in and pick the most profitable. This system has been firing on all cylinders. As it's a combination system, strike-rate is a bit higher at an average 20%. This year it's produced a massive +230pts profit with a 64% ROI, which is above the overall average of 48% ROI and a total +878pts profit since 2014.
System 6 – Polytrack Trainer and Sire Combo 2. Clue – Similar to the above but with a Class filter This is more selective than Combo 1 but there is some crossover. It's shown a +52pts profit with a 43% ROI and it has a higher 24% strike-rate, but the prices are generally lower although it has also found some big-priced winners. Since 2014 it's shown a +438pts profit with a 50% ROI.
System 7 – Soft/Heavy Trainer Sire Combo. Clue – Research the combinations on soft first, and then heavy and then soft-heavy and you will spot some interesting things. Then filter for sire and trainer and trainer and sire and see what else you notice. This system may need updating. It produced a nice 12/1 winner with Flashjack at Haydock on Saturday but it's -39pts down with a -37% ROI. This is actually it's first losing year, although obviously there is a long way to go and this can produce some big-priced winners. Since 2009 it's showing a +731pts profit with a 77% ROI so I suspect that a few trainers on that list are not in such great form this year and that requires further research, but a losing year can happen from time to time and the season ‘aint over yet!
System 8 to 15 – Jumps Chase and Hurdle Trainer/Sire Combo by race distance. Clue – Don't just look at 2m for 2m chases, look at those < 2m 2f for example. Always give a few furlongs either side of the actual distance. Also consider using Class as a filter. I love this set of systems as they are focusing, not just on profitable sire/trainer combinations but filtering further by race distance. This generally means the strike-rates will be higher but prices are still quite generous. Overall, this set of systems have produced a +193ptsprofit at SP with an average strike-rate of 25%, so you need to be expecting to be losing 3 in every 4 bets!
System 16 – Tapeta 2yo Sires. Clue – If you have more than 10 sires, revisit and refilter. Since 2014 this little system has shown a +317pts profit and 51% ROI. This season has accounted for +103pts and in itself has delivered an outstanding 52% ROI. It got another beauty with Wailea Nights at 16/1 at Wolverhampton on Friday who paid a generous 19.04 BSP.
System 17 – Tapeta All Sires.Clue – Same as system 4 but on Tapeta…again the clue is in the name! So far this has shown an amazing +126pts profit in 2019 with a 21% Yield and likely better to come as the average yield since 2014 is 30% and a total +835pts profit!
System 18 – Tapeta Trainer/Sire. Clue – Filter these by distance to find the optimum distance range, because there is one! A +53ptsprofit with a 46% ROI this season so far, despite a 16% strike-rate which is lower than the average 22% since 2014 and has shown +598pts profit since then for a 105% ROI, so it has scope for further profits.
System 19 – Polytrack 2yo Sires – Same as System 16 but for Kempton, Lingfield and Chelmsford and has amassed a massive +857pts profit and 113% ROI since 2014 and +182pts profit and 111% ROI in 2019.
I love my ratings, the filtered race Top-Rated have a 30% strike-rate, with a +168pts profit and 23% ROI. A near 60% of winners are found from the Top-3 of the ratings, with jumps handicap chases being one of the most profitable race types with a +57pts profit and 74% ROI at BetfairSP, less 5% maximum commision. The beauty is that the ratings are easy to back the Top-Rated at BetfairSP and I would advise to do the same with your GeeGeez Query Tool system selections to boost profits even further. You can pick up a 30-day trial for just £1 below and combining a ratings and systems approach will improve your betting and take the ‘opinion' and decision out of the equation, it's a shortcut to success.
A similar system, based on 2yo sire data only on Tapeta surfaces, recently produced a nice 28/1 recently with Copperlight (runs in the 5:35 at Wolverhampton today), who returned a generous 32 BSP. Copperlight's sire Poet's Voice has a +69pts profit and 90% ROI, so is one of the most profitable Tapeta sires out there.
Since 2014, this particular Tapeta 2yo system has shown a +310 points profit with a 52% Yield and continues to produce the goods. There is a 40/1 qualifier today at Wolverhampton!
POLYTRACK System 1 – Sires Only
I have a Polytrack system, similar again to the one I posted on Tapeta, where we combine profitable sires with trainers. This particular angle has a +344pts profit with a 50% Yield. That means, these two all-weather systems combined, that cover all courses have shown over +650pts profit since 2014. There is even better to come though, so read on.
Looking for these qualifiers on a daily basis can be a laborious job, but with GeeGeez Gold Query Tool, you can build these ‘angles' and qualifiers will be automatically highlighted, both in the GeeGeez Query Tool itself, on the racecards and in a Query Tool Reports tab, meaning there is no excuse to miss future qualifiers and it just makes it easier to track results.
This Polytrack system has already produced a 4/1 winner with HARRY'S BAR and a 12/1 winner in FIELDS OF DREAMS (available at 14/1) at Lingfield Park yesterday.
THE RIGHT MINDSET
It's a neat, little system, with a win strike-rate of 23%, better than the 17% of the Tapeta system, so we still have to expect 75%+ of qualifiers to lose. This is hard for most punters to expect, the biggest factor holding back the majority of them from making a profit, is the lack of patience required to follow such a system and view the long-term. Most punters prefer regular winners, because they can't handle the losing runs, regardless of profitability. Usually, if you have a high strike-rate system, profitability is diminished, often significantly, far better a lower strike-rate, higher profits and just be strong mentally – it's a balance between finding enough winners at decent prices to boost profitability, we need to sacrifice win-rate.
A horse is only as good as it's last race, and a punter only remembers recent results. It requires a complete mindset-shift to be able to follow a system, or a set of ratings, and maintain the discipline required to see out unavoidable losing runs.
We can of course filter further, to improve strike-rate but this affects profitability and also we run into sample size problems. I prefer to have a long-term outlook and not be phased by losing runs, but it does take a strong temperament, ability to stay calm under pressure and have faith in your research.
RESEARCHING POLYTRACK SIRES
Courses – Lingfield, Kempton and Chelmsford are the 3 current Polytrack All-Weather surfaces, so first thing we do, is select the date range from 1/1/2014 until 31/12/2022. The reason I put a future end date range, is that it means the Angle automatically updates with ongoing results and I can track it easier without having to mess with end dates. Then we select those tracks in GeeGeez Query Tool and also the Race Code as Flat AW, so we don't get anything funky with Kempton and Lingfield jumps races showing up!
Now, we start to filter the sires. This is easily done by simply selecting the SIRE filter from the RUNNERS tab in GeeGeez Query Tool and clicking on GENERATE REPORT.
This give us a complete list of all Polytrack sire progeny that have raced at Kempton, Lingfield and Chelmsford since the start of 2014.
As you can see, backing all runners would have resulted in a -£19,000 loss and -26% ROI, so we need to filter this list.
You really want a decent sample size and to see profitability from sires. I start by a minimum of 5 runs and 5 wins, 10% win strike-rate, minimum +10 win and place PL, A/E (Actual v Expected Ratio) and IV (Impact Value) minimum of 0. There is more info on A/E and IV, as well as other detailed reporting features available in GeeGeez Gold, on this GeeGeez blog post.
Anyway, the applied filters and shortlist of profitable sires looks like the screenshot below.
Next thing we do is click the little plus sign + next to each sire name to add them to our Angle to track. We can then save the Angle with an appropriate name. In this case, PolytrackSires12thDec.
I have started to put the date into my angles so I can track their future performance easier by amending the start date to track the current performance.
Now, this simply Polytrack sires angle alone, since 2014 has shown a 17% Win Strike-Rate, +562pts profit and a 39% ROI, which is pretty exceptional for just a sire system. Also, a few of these go in at big-prices and the BetfairSP on these runners are usually inflated, on average by 10% but a little higher for the longshots, so profits will be significantly higher at BetfairSP, which is always my recommend method of betting. You don't need to shop around for bookmaker best prices and worry about restrictions then – it's a real relief and keeps things simply, including results expectations.
It produced a nice 16/1 winner with GO WELL SPICY at Lingfield last week which paid 25 BetfairSP and is a 42% improvement on Official Starting Price, even accounting for a max 5% Betfair commission!
Now, that is quite a few bets – you may notice a few running at Chelmsford next few days in the screenshot below, one today at 33/1!
POLYTRACK SYSTEM 2 – Sires and Trainers
Now, there is another approach where we combined good sires with profitable trainers that have shown profits with those progeny on the Polytrack surfaces. Often, an unprofitable sire, with a decent win-rate and A/E and IV, can become profitable if placed in the right training hands.
FILTERING SIRES – positive A/E and IV, forgetting profitability for now.
Now, building this 2nd system, for more selectivity, is the exact same steps as above, all we need to do is take out the filter for the Win and Place Minimum profit, set the minimum A/E and IV to 1 and then add those sires to our list for the 2nd system. So our filters now look like this for system 2 – Siress have a minimum of 5 runs and 5 wins, A/E (Actual v Expected Ratio) and IV (Impact Value) minimum of 1.
Once we have added these filters, we select the SIRE tab and GENERATE the report. We then click the + button to add these to this Angle, which we will call PolytrackTrainerAndSire12thDec and it looks like the screenshot below, which, even with a 14% strike-rate, are actually +18pts in profit, but a measly 0.8% ROI can be improved upon.
Now, we need to look at all the trainers that can actually turn these sires profitable. Some of the sires already are and will continue to be, many will be dropped but it's a good filtering technique if you want to improve profitability and selectivity.
Select TRAINER from the RUNNER tab and click on GENERATE REPORT, we get a list of trainers that have trained these sires on the Polytrack.
Now, with trainers I want to see profitability with these sires and I also want to increase the Runs and Wins sample sizes. So the filters for TRAINERS look like the following, once applied.
As we can see, this system has produced mammoth profits since 2014. Not only does it have a 20% strike-rate, which is a little easier on the confidence but the profits are +939pts with a 48% ROI! Add that into the +650pts profit from the Tapeta and Polytrack Sire only system and you have over +1800pts profit over 6 years!
This landed 12/1 winner (available at 14/1) FIELD OF DREAMS at Lingfield yesterday, as well as 4/1 winner ROMAN SPINNER. Last weke there was a 25/1 winner BRUNEL CHARM at Kempton which paid 36.78 BetfairSP (a 36% improvement over Industry Starting Price!) so you can see, again profits are actually much higher at BetfairSP.
The filtered trainers, of those sires, can be seen in the screenshot below.
Again, we can see a list of upcoming qualifiers on this system in the VIEW RUNNERS tab in Query Tool – you might see that 12/1 qualifier at Chelmsford later if you look closely enough!
In fact it gets even easier to track these runners. They are not only flagged on the racecards as you can see below. Bear in mind, that the profits quoted for the sire angles are for the overall proftability, not just for that individual trainer/sire. You can though, look at individual trainers/sires to gain confidence, or not, in a potential bet. In the example below THE GILL BROTHERS, in the 5:20 at Chelmsford today, hits both the sire and sire/trainer combo as well as being picked up by the GeeGeez sire snippets on both All Weather AND distance range. This can give additional strength, bearing in mind the ‘All-Weather' stats here do not, I believe, differentiate between surfaces. It's still good to know.
but there is also a QT Report that you can run that shows qualifiers for ALL your saved Angles, also shown below.
This is perfect and a massive time-saver – I run test systems that I track alongside live ones and I also test filtered versions of the ones above, for example check out a CLASS filter on the above systems, as well as some DISTANCE filters – but that is for you to investigate. As you can see, I am currently testing and monitoring a few jumps-based systems. They don't appear to work anywhere near as well as the All-Weather Sire or Sire/Trainer angle, it's early days, but the all-weather is where my focus and investments are, alongside my own ratings selections.
If you are not using GeeGeez Gold for this kind of research and monitoring of Angles, then you are missing out on potentially massive profits, and from discovering your own angles that the crowd ignores. Ultimately, you are not up against the bookmakers, but against other punters – so you need to get an edge over those punters that are lazy and don't do this kind of research.
You can join GeeGeez Gold for just £1 for your first 30-days here and play around for as long as you want to build your betting angle portfolio, to boost your bankroll and improve your overall profitability and intelligence as a punter. I mean, who couldn't do with an average +300pts extra profit each year on the All-Weather by following 3 simple systems?
This is the October results update of backing the Top-Rated FormBet runners for 1pt stakes, at BetfairSP (BSP), less 5% assumed commission.
You can download a full stats results excel sheet, since the ratings started at the end of June 2019 here.
It's recommended to back all Top-Rated selections blindly at BSP, there is little difference in the profitability compared with obtaining the best early odds, especially considering Rule4's and non-runners. It's also easier to just place all bets first thing in the morning, or the evening before at BSP, without the hard work of hunting around for a bookmaker that will still accept bets! I recommend having a 400pt bank and backing 0.5% (max 1%) stakes initially. So if your bank was £400 your stakes would be £2. There are also ways around the minimum stakes bet of £2 on Betfair if you wanted to start with a smaller bank.
In October we showed a +42.56pts profit for a 20.6% ROI by backing all top-rated runners at BSP less 5% Commission.
There were 207 Top-Rated runners in October. 48 of them won, which equates to a 23% Strike-Rate, showing a profitability of +42.56pts at BetfairSP to 1pt stakes and a 20.6% Return On Investment. By the 12th October we were -30pts down on the month, but we rallied a near +70pts profit in the final 2 weeks, as the all-weather and jumps ratings models improved. All-Weather Handicaps (AH) showed a +20pts profit and 67% ROI, Handicap Chases (JHC) made +29pts profit for a 67% ROI. Flat handicaps (FH) lost -13pts or -36% ROI, possibly due to end-of-season form on very soft/heavy going leading to some strange results. Same for non-handicaps on the flat (FN) which lost -16% ROI but only 4.87pts down. Jumps Handicap Hurdles (JHH) were losing -21pts and -54% ROI by the 15th October but a few nice winners put us into profit, albeit by less than 1pt for a 2% ROI on the month, but a very nice recovery and promising for the future. There are question marks over 2yo Nursery handicaps, conditional/amateur and apprentice handicaps and novice handicaps over hurdles and fences, but again we need some more data to determine which races are best avoided from a ratings consistency and profitability viewpoint. Early days for jumps non-handicap chase and hurdles, hurdles looking far more consistent and profitable than chases in the early stages but more data required.
CLASS OF RACE
There were small losses at Class 5 levels but the profits came in Class 2 contests with a +38pts profit and 74% ROI. Class 1's lost -4.67pts or -15% ROI. There are patterns emerging regarding class of race, but we need another month worth of data to make some clear decisions in that regard.
DAYS OF WEEK
Thursday, Friday and Saturday were the most profitable days, Thursday with a +15pts profit and 44% ROI, Saturday with a +21pts profit and 40% ROI and Friday with a +10pts profit and 27% ROI. The worse days were Sunday and Monday with a combined loss of -9pts. Monday has the lowest strike-rate of all days at just 13%, albeit from a single-figure sample size, but may be best avoided in the future. I'll keep an eye on the Sabbath as well but less rated races may improve in that respect.
RANK OF WINNERS
I was very happy this month, despite a lower than ideal 22.2% win strike-rate, that a decent +42pts profit and 20% ROI was achieved, the best ROI since July's +32pts and 22% ROI. November will start off volatile with a lot more novice contests and jumps and all-weather races taking over from flat, which finishes soon. My goal of 50% of winners from the Top-3 of the ratings was achieved and I'd be looking for the win% to get closer to 25% over the next few months and perhaps even higher.
THE MONTH AHEAD
I expect a strong finish to November based on what I have seen so far and with further filtering of races to exclude, profitability will increase again. I'm very excited about the jumps and all-weather seasons based on the above figures.
At this point I am going to be looking at the following filters with regards to race selection -:
Flat Non-Handicaps – Top-Rated runners in Class 1 contests had a 34% Win Strike-Rate with a 2% Yield. Races of 7f or less were easily the most profitable with a +14pts profit and 17% Yield so that could be a focus for next year, if we only focus on Class 1 contests then we get a 40% win rated with a +18pts profit and 25% Yield. We all want to get the winner of the Guineas, Derby etc but perhaps it's best to focus on Class 1, shorter distances for the non-handicaps on the flat. Juvenile (2yo) Class 1 contests showed a 52% strike-rate with a +15pts profit and 45% ROI, so this looks particularly good.
Flat Handicaps – Backing Top-Rated runners at 12/1 or less had a 24% strike-rate, gave a +67pts profit and 22% ROI which is excellent considering they have only been running since the very end of June. Monday's again proved unprofitable. Unlike non-handicaps, focusing on races at 1 mile (8 furlongs) or further, improve profitability with a 27% strike-rate, +63pts profit and 35% ROI. Adding in the odds-filter gives us +68pts profit and a 39% ROI. One for next year.
All-Weather Handicaps – Possibly Class 1, 2 and 3 races only gives a +20pts profit and 60% Yield. You could also get a +19pts profit by focusing on the Top-Rated that are 12/1 or less, which has provided a historical 35% ROI. Combining both Class and Max odds filters gives a 35% strike-rate with a +23pts profit and 73% Yield, so seems a good approach, at least until a 20/1 Top-Rated runner goes in so I'll just put in place a class filter 1-3 filter at this stage.
Jumps Handicap Chases – All classes look good, except Class 1's which are 0/7 but it's a small sample size. Odds range to focus on for these seem to be between 9/4 and 20/1 – by focusing on this odds-range you would have had a +19pts profit and 32% ROI but that is not much better than the non-filtered +17pts profit and 24% ROI so I'll not filter these races at this stage. I'm very wary of, and will probably avoid, all amateur, apprentice, conditional and novice handicap chase and hurdle races, as they have only produced 1 x 3/1 winner from a number of races rated, so they may be too volatile.
Jumps Handicap Hurdle – There are no clear clues here regarding class, distance or odds. They are very hard to predict but it's definitely worth looking to focus on races at 2 1/2 miles (20 furlongs) or less as they seem more predictable and focusing on them produced a +5pts profit with 10% ROI. Those at 9/1 or less give a mild increase of +6pts profit and 12% ROI, but we simply don't have enough sampled races to add any filters at this stage, apart from the aforementioned amateur, apprentice, conditional and novice handicaps, and just have to allow the model time to settle down.
Even smaller samples for novice chase and hurdle contests, although at this stage the novice chases are 0/7 and the novice hurdles 3/7 with a 19% ROI – we have to wait and see with these, along with Non-Handicaps on the all-weather, where I tend to focus on decent class stakes races.
All ratings and bets are provided via WhatsApp, either very early in the morning, or the evening before for big meetings and especially on Friday and Saturday's which are sent the day before, when odds become available for the rated races.
I'm going to be setting up an automatic results update section on the website and the private members forum on the website has been brought back to life, to share thoughts, bets and answer any questions that arise, as well as more detailed race previews when time allows and stats updates.
Not all all-weather surfaces are the same, there is no such thing as an ‘all-weather' surface and it's worth looking at the surface at each racecourse. The number of all-weather meetings will start to increase this month and through the winter so it's an ideal time to start researching some trainer/sire combination systems.
Tapeta was introduced as a racing surface in the UK at Wolverhampton on the 11th August 2014 and Newcastle has been Tapeta since May 2016. We can build a useful Tapeta Sire/Trainer combo system using GeeGeez Gold Query Tool to flag useful future qualifiers easily, just follow the instructions below.
STEP 1 – Select 11/8/2014 as the FROM data in the Date Range, Wolverhampton and Newcastle as the COURSE and FLAT AW as the Race Code.
STEP 2 – SELECT 7F to 1m 2F as the DISTANCE range as we want to focus on those race distances where we can rule out a bad start and reduce the chances of not recovering after trouble in running, especially in sprint races.
STEP 3 – SELECT SIRE and hit GENERATE REPORT
STEP 4 – The above gives you a list of profitable Tapeta sires, after you have set the filters along the top, 10 Min Runs, 5 Min Wins, 10% Min Win%, Min Win PL of 10 and an A/E and I.V of 1. Add these sires by clicking on the + button next to the name of each sire.
STEP 5 – Click on TRAINER and hit GENERATE REPORT and you will get a list of profitable trainers that have a good record with this progeny, who are already proven and profitable on the surface. Click on the + button again to generate the angle and then save it.
STEP 6 – CLICK on QUALIFIERS to view a list of upcoming qualifiers. You can see how many winners this has generated, at decent odds, including a 33/1 shot Constitutional at Newcastle last month and a 50/1 winner a few days beforehand. Combined they have a 35% strike-rate and 109% ROI.
STEP 7 – If you view the racecard you can see the qualifiers for the 6:55 at Newcastle tonight. There is a hot odds-on John Gosden/Kingman runner Tsar but that sire has a far better record on turf so far, despite the excellent 51% record of John Gosden with these sires, he doesn't qualify due to the absence of Kingman as a non-profitable all-weather sire. The 100/1 shot Roddy Ransom may be a stab in the dark for small change at likely massive BetfairSP, but the profitable all-weather sire Lope De Vega is responsible for the Karl Burke runner EMERATY HERO who is interesting at a best-price 8/1.
I'd recommend an each-way on that one as these proverbial good things can get turned over and this one also has a positive trainer/jockey combination for additional strength. When combined Karl Burke and Danny Tudhope have a 36% win record with a PL of +15.5 and an A/E of 2.56.
Win or lose tonight, you can see the benefit of being able to build these angle and research qualifiers on the fly and have them flagged in the Query Tool or on the Racecards themselves.
If you follow me on Twitter as @formbet, then you will know I have been posting researched System Qualifiers using GeeGeez Gold's excellent Query Tool. GeeGeez is amazing value and is capable of turning you from a losing/break-even punter into a very profitable one, but you do have to do a little bit of prep work.
I have been posting #SireWatchand #Sprintwatchqualifiers on Twitter for the last week or so but will be stopping after this weekend. The reason is that I have shown you how to use the filters and the rest is up to you and to join GeeGeez, or at least try it for the initial £1 a month to see the difference it can make to your betting.
You can find details of how to research and build these two systems on the following 2 blog posts -:
I thought I would sign them off by a brief mention of some of the qualifiers racing this Saturday, the 20th September, which are at the bottom of this post.
They are really easy to spot on the GeeGeez Gold racecards once you have built your Query Tool angles, future qualifiers are highlighted on the cards like below and on the Query Tool “View Runners” tab itself as below.
So, you can go through each race after identifying them in the Query Tool and dig into a bit more detail on the breeding.
Now, the P&L figures on the racecards are for ALL the trainers and ALL the qualifying sires for that angle. On the sire snippets on the racecard, we can also see the additional, overall stats for War Front, useful when comparing against other sires progeny in the race. If you actually want to see how a particular trainer has done with all sires, or vice versa, or just one trainer/sire combo, then do the following. Let's say we want to see how Gosden has done with War Front. All we have to do is uncheck all the trainers except Gosden, extend the date to since 2009, select Sires and re-generate the angle to look at his stats with War Front. You can of course just keep one list of sires and then keep the trainer blank and enter his name only, for research purposes, whatever is easiest for you.
So we now can get a list of which of these sires Gosden performs best with by strike-rate/yield etc and in particular War Front, who is actually his 2nd highest strike-rate sire, under these conditions with juveniles, of course we have to be a bit wary of sample size. Below that, you can see the list of filters applied. This makes CHEROKEE TRAIL look a good bet tomorrow in the 1:10 at Newbury, purely based on the sire, stats, race conditions and other strong trainer/jockey data to back it up, BUT it's likely to be short-priced.
Newbury 1:45 MAID IN INDIA 20/1 5yo (Alston/Bated Breath)
Ayr 2:40 JAWWAAL 25/1 4yo (Dods/Bahamian Bounty)
Ayr 3:50 BUFFER ZONE 11/2 4yo (Lyons/Bated Breath)
Ayr 3:50 AIR RAID 25/1 4yo (O'Keefe/Raven's Pass)
Ayr 3:50 LOUIE DE PALMA 25/1 7yo (Cox/Pastoral Pursuits)
Now, of course these are just a couple of angles to play and personally, I prefer it to find confirmation with my ratings to feel really confident as I always prioritise my ratings, especially with the older sprintwatch qualifiers. With the sirewatch qualifiers you can get a huge edge on the crowd, get an idea of formlines, get used to noticing specific trainers and sires in other situations automatically, and just become a smarter and more profitable punter. I highly recommend taking out a subscription to GeeGeez Gold.
Following on from my blog post about Classy 2yo's and how to identify them, often before they run, I thought it would be worth looking at some of those that have either won or shown promise from this set of filters. You don't need to look at times, stride lengths and all that nonsense which has little predictive value and is far too time consuming – look at what happened to Visinari, who was spoken as the next 2nd-coming in some quarters.
Instead, you can keep it relatively simple, all you need to look at is breeding and trainer ability, that's it. If you also have a set of ratings like FTS then you are giving yourself an edge over 99.9% of punters who don't use any of these tools as they are excellent when used on combination with sire and trainer analysis.
This may seem like an obvious pick, especially in light of Sunday's bloodbath in the National Stakes, but I've been backing him since he first appeared on the racecourse and he has been top-rated and advised to subscribers on a few of his earlier wins already. I knew the ability of Shamardal and Charlie Appleby when it came to highlighting top class juveniles and a potential future Group 1 or classic winner. This approach has yielded winners at big odds on their 2yo debuts when there is little else to go on. Pinatubo can go all the way to the top and really looks something special, I'm glad I've managed to get 7/2 and 4/1 about this contender on a few of his earlier runs, as you are unlikely to see those kinds of odds again.
MISS YODA (Sea The Stars/Gosden)
An impressive winner of a maiden on Friday at Sandown, Miss Yoda looks capable of winning Group races at 3 at distances of 1 mile and further. There is plenty of stamina on the dams side to suggest she can take the step up in trip in her stride, and we already know the versatility of the sire at distances of 1m – 12 furlongs.
KAMEKO (Kitten's Joy/Balding)
A tall and scopey colt but still ran well enough to win on his debut at Sandown and the 2nd has boosted that form since by winning. Then ran a race full of promise at big odds when just failing by a nose to get the better of Positive in the Group 3 Solario Stakes last time. He ran green there so it was a good effort to get so close and he could improve markedly from 2 to 3 once he matures and fills out his frame.
RAAEB (Raven's Pass/Suroor)
Impressive performance at Doncaster last week, quickening well and staying on strongly and this colt is bred to be a Group winner, especially so on the dam side and again is capable of winning at distances up to 10f/12f.
Ran into a decent Godolphin runner Path Of Thunder on debut, who has subsequently boosted that form. Made no mistake at Newbury when last seen in July, winning by an easy 2 1/4 lengths from Native Tribe who scored well last time. Form looks solid and could be very effective at a mile and perhaps up to 10f. The dam is a half-sister to 3 x Group 1 winner Ervedya.
Beat the subsequent May Hill 3rd Alpen Rose on her 2nd run and already looks like she needs further than 7f. By Kingman out of a Sea The Stars mare who is a half-sister to an Irish 1000 Guineas winner, it could be 8f is her optimum. Holds an entry at Newbury on Friday.
PALACE PIER (Kingman/Gosden)
A taking colt who won easily on debut at Sandown in August, beating a decent looking field by nearly 4 lengths. Dam didn't race but is a half-sister to a couple of 1m/10f Group 2 winners. Holds an entry at Sandown on Wednesday.
RIDENZA (Sea The Stars/Halford)
Easily won a big field fillies maiden at Leopardstown, beating a few well-touted newcomers. By Sea The Stars out of a Rock Of Gibraltar mare, is bred to be a decent miler, but there is also plenty of stamina on the dams side and she could develop into an Oaks contender.
VOLKAN STAR (Sea The Stars/Appleby)
Stepped up on debut when making all and winning easily by 6 lengths. Quite what he beat there, I'm not so sure, but there was no denying the style of victory and there is enough stamina in this pedigree to suggest he could be up to winning at anything from a mile to 12 furlongs.
CAYENNE PEPPER (Australia/Harrington)
Won well on her debut over 7f, with the subsequent Moyglare winner LOVE around 6 lengths back in 4th. Won well again at Tipperary before comfortably winning the GP3 Flame Of Tara stakes over a mile.
That's it for now – I'll look at producing a similar list towards the end of the season but for now, you can track any future qualifiers on Twitter using hashtag #SireWatch