I've performed detailed analysis of the FTS Ratings that were introduced in late June 2019 and you can download here a full spreadsheet of the results, stats, winners and example ratings & WhatsApp message that gets sent to subscribers with the day's ratings link and Best Bets betting advice. I had always had in mind that these ‘new' ratings, although based on 10+ years FBR and POW ratings, would take some time to ‘bed in' but their performance has so far exceeded my expectations.
Details of what is on the spreadsheet is below and the breakdown of the top-rated performance is below, as you can see a nice 5.3% Yield at SP which can be bettered by taking BSP and still further by taking best Early Prices (EP) when ratings are sent. In fact taking early prices gives +73.3pts profit and a 22% Yield – not many ratings services can provide such profits, simply by backing their top-rated contender at the best early prices. It's especially good that profits still exist at SP, so I'm really happy with this achievement.
AH – All-Weather Handicaps
JHC = Jumps Handicap Chases
JHH = Jumps Handicap Hurdles
FH = Flat Handicaps
FN = Flat Non-Handicaps
STATS TAB – This contains a summary of the overall performance and profitability of the top-rated on the ratings, and also broken down by race type and month. All P&L is calculated at Industry Starting Price (SP). As you can see there is a massive difference between the early price profits (give or take the odd non-runner) of +73.3pts profit compared to +17.7pts profit at SP. There is also an increase of up to 17% Yield by taking best early prices, which highlights the importance of taking an early price on top-rated runners, they get backed!
TopRated TAB – A list of all the top-rated runners that have been rated along with their early odds and price movement from those odds to SP. I also intend to add an age column, perhaps avoiding 2yo races for instance and more filtered results for class of race etc. Time may tell it's best to avoid the betting shorter-priced runners over time, if they provide less of a percentage edge, or at least only focusing on certain race types. ie. Group 1's or when combined with the position of the horse in the betting forecast. No. Of Runners will also be added when time permits, to assess ratings performance by field size groupings.
Winners TAB – A list of all the winners of the rated races.
BetfairSP Snapshot TAB – BetfairSP will also give a significant improvement if early prices or BOG are not possible. As you can see from the BetfairSP Snapsot. The % increase in price increases as the odds range increases, meaning you could take BSP and get a profitable increase of an estimated 15-18% compared to SP. I have not recorded all BSP's, as they are no longer available to download from Betfair due to technical issues, so I have to input them manually and it will take a while.
June/July – I was really happy with the ratings performance at the end of June when they were just really going live after testing for a month or two, and again they performed really well all through July. There were also a couple of notable 2nd-rated winners, a few of which were advised to subscribers including Great White Shark at 33/1 at the Galway festival. The POW ratings came into effect in July and helped to find Stewards Cup winner Khaadeem, advised at 10/1, this is now incorporated and weighted into the main FTS Rating.
August – The first two weeks of August started great, with a record +£39 profit achieved on the 17th August, THEN, York Ebor meeting happened and was the cause of most of the pain for the month. However, it's worth pointing out that we did have 7 x Top-Rated, shorter priced winners at the festival and a) this meeting is ultra-competitive and b) how many top-rated 2nd's we had, no fewer than 9 x 2nd place finishers at the York Ebor meeting including Agincourt (14/1) beaten a head on the Thursday and Celtic Art (14/1) beaten a neck on Friday. Either one of those would have put us in profit for the month and is simply betting variance. The V%'s were also incorporated in mid-August to assist with value-based ratings analysis and selections.
Most people will quit a service around this time after a poor run at a big festival, but it always makes sense to dig deeper and see the overall performance of the ratings and not get too swayed by short-termism, the punters biggest downfall. There are several big festivals left on the flat through September – October and I expect profits and consistency to increase.
September – Started well with Francis Xavier returning a nice 17 BSP and Hello Youmzain 8/1 in the Haydock Sprint Cup and 2nd-rated Time To Study advised at 12/1 in the Old Borough Cup.
I will be looking at further race filtering to improve the advised Best Bet performance (have not had time to get those results up to date yet) but my focus is on the ratings performance improvement, statistical analysis of the results and seeing, in what kind of conditions, we can give ourselves the best chance of success when backing a top-rated contender and which races/runners to swerve. As the average odds about top-rated contenders is higher than the market-ranked runners, then I will be happy to achieve a regular 25%-28% strike-rate over the month, anything lower than that could results in a small loss.
The “Class” results on the Stats page make it clear to avoid rating Class 6 (and maybe even Class 5) contests, simply due to overall poor quality at those levels and also to perhaps swerve the Group 1 races, most likely flat Group 1 contests where the odds are much more restrictive and harder to make an overall profit, despite having a near 10% improvement in strike-rate compared to all other class of race. The key here may be to only back a top-rated Class 1 contender that has a positive V% perhaps or go for the forecast 1-2 on the ratings as we have landed quite a few for decent returns. As we can see from the table below, summarising the above, by class of race.
I have made a change today to the FTS rating to exclude one of the overall model criteria in certain race contests, and this should ensure profits are more easily achieved on top-rated runners going forward. I will largely focus on Top-Rated runners but will throw in the odd selection from 2nd or 3rd on the ratings, if the top-rated is too short and I feel there is value to be had. The Top-3 on the ratings provide almost 50% of the winners after all so it's a good area to focus on. So long as I am seeing a slight increase in the Win% of the Top1, 2, 3 by the end of the flat season, then I will be happy – that is the main goal and more regular winners will inevitably follow.
Beware Handicap Hurdles
The performance of jumps races will be a little volatile as the season starts to wind up properly in October, just until there is enough data as there is on the flat (1-2 months) before you see more stability and profitability. It's early days with small samples just now and need to wait till they get over the 50 and preferably 100 rated races mark. Handicap Hurdles I will not be advising bets in as I have always believed they required a slightly unique model which I plan to have ready for the start of October once more races have been rated and I feel more confident in the figures and see strike-rate improvement into the 20%+ bracket like the others.
I will be looking for these ratings, stats and results to be automatically updated on the main FormBet website at some point in the near future, including a site re-design, so subscribers can keep an eye on progress and track results in real-time.
Any questions please get in touch via the Contact page or join now for just £1 a month and get the ratings and best bets via WhatsApp for all rated races. I generally focus on Class 4 races or above so on really poor days racing, often early in the week, there might not be any ratings. However, those ‘missed' days are made up for by the number of bets on the weekend and at the big meetings.